Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[spygirl]

14 minutes ago, One percent said:

Government have slowly chipped away at profit in rental through the taxation system. They have deliberately taken it slowly imho and sent out warning signs for years. Due to this being a problem caused by government and they didn’t want to either crash the market or scare the horses. They will do the same to holiday homes and lets.  

Nah, not at all, in terms of FHL. No new tax.

Its just a low profit business that really cannot support much in the way of leverage./mortgages.

What changes is that Gidiot fucked up the SBRR in 2015ish, allowing FHL to avoid business rates, so they dont pay any tax.

That change was spun to the IO BTL morons as the 'last relief available on properdee' so they all tried to pile into FHL.

A year or two 2017/2018 later he bumped up the number of week you had to let a place for, so you could qualify as a FHL.

So people piled in, then found they could not let the place long enough to qualify - 2020/2021 will be just  a blip.

This is why the Eurgh place I PMed you, bought in 2020, is now up for sale in 2022 Q2 - they;ll have failed to get the weeks and their accountant will be screaming at  them.

FHL is OK providing youve got the house, finance free. Its better than BnB, which is hellish.

But youre not goign to get rich - or earn enough to pay off a mortgage.

 

 

 

 

[One percent]

10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Nah, not at all, in terms of FHL. No new tax.

Its just a low profit business that really cannot support much in the way of leverage./mortgages.

What changes is that Gidiot fucked up the SBRR in 2015ish, allowing FHL to avoid business rates, so they dont pay any tax.

That change was spun to the IO BTL morons as the 'last relief available on properdee' so they all tried to pile into FHL.

A year or two 2017/2018 later he bumped up the number of week you had to let a place for, so you could qualify as a FHL.

So people piled in, then found they could not let the place long enough to qualify - 2020/2021 will be just  a blip.

This is why the Eurgh place I PMed you, bought in 2020, is now up for sale in 2022 Q2 - they;ll have failed to get the weeks and their accountant will be screaming at  them.

FHL is OK providing youve got the house, finance free. Its better than BnB, which is hellish.

But youre not goign to get rich - or earn enough to pay off a mortgage.

 

 

 

 

That needs explaining to the wessies who are piling in.  
 

 

[spygirl]

42 minutes ago, One percent said:

That needs explaining to the wessies who are piling in.  
 

 

Good luck.

Ive literally -and Ive tried - never had much look explaining percentages to the average binged up brassy tart from Bingley.

 

[Sugarlips]

Heat being turned up down under...CBA is the biggest bank, the others will follow

 

 

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Heat being turned up down under...CBA is the biggest bank, the others will follow

 

 

 

Is that for real?

Ouch!

Gonna be some pain when they set in in 6 months

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Is that for real?

 

I messages a friend of mine in Sydney says this is for real.  Everyone's expecting BIG falls here.

Starting to look planned.

How will Fat Boris and the BOE look when NZ/Australia/Canada deliver affordable housing by raising mortgage rates.
 

[HousePriceMania]

> Savills plc

996.50 GBX−112.50 (10.14%)today

 

[Axeman123]

11 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Starting to look planned.

I don't know about planned, but certainly on the principle of never let a crisis go to waste...

At some point the demographic incentives in the electoral calculus is going to flip ie boomers won't always have the whip hand. When that happens the rump boomers with their vast collective housing wealth are going to be very vulnerable to the demands of the new powerful voter age group (that so far overwhelmingly won't be homeowners). It makes total sense that this would play out around the world, and most big parties would have plans to pivot on the issue.

raise rates=>crash prices=>create a new client demographic of homeowners, that will vote on the same self-interest issues as the old one.

[Wight Flight]

46 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I messages a friend of mine in Sydney says this is for real.  Everyone's expecting BIG falls here.

Starting to look planned.

How will Fat Boris and the BOE look when NZ/Australia/Canada deliver affordable housing by raising mortgage rates.
 

Any idea what rental yields are like in the big cities?

Edit - https://sqmresearch.com.au/property-rental-yield.php?region=nsw-Sydney&type=c&t=1

Oops.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Wight Flight

[Don Coglione]

52 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I messages a friend of mine in Sydney says this is for real.  Everyone's expecting BIG falls here.

Starting to look planned.

How will Fat Boris and the BOE look when NZ/Australia/Canada deliver affordable housing by raising mortgage rates.
 

Prices in Sydney could halve and still make London look sensible.

[sancho panza]

59 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

At some point the demographic incentives in the electoral calculus is going to flip ie boomers won't always have the whip hand. When that happens the rump boomers with their vast collective housing wealth are going to be very vulnerable to the demands of the new powerful voter age group (that so far overwhelmingly won't be homeowners). It makes total sense that this would play out around the world, and most big parties would have plans to pivot on the issue.

raise rates=>crash prices=>create a new client demographic of homeowners, that will vote on the same self-interest issues as the old one.

Nail on the head there Axey,looming demogrpaihc battle bewteen working age labour and retirees and it'll be won by the people who don't need to pay someone to do their cleaning/social care/gardening,plastering etc

[Democorruptcy]

23 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Heat being turned up down under...CBA is the biggest bank, the others will follow

 

 

 

I found that table disappointing to be honest, the 1-yr fixed, 2.09% to 4.99% "Change 2.90%" that should be

1 YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE INCREASES BY 139%

[haroldshand]

The media is full of doom and gloom at the moment and the Daily Telegraph is worse than most. Was reading the website yesterday while waiting for a Bass to take my bait(little bastards) and had laugh at sheer gloom of it all, surely the world though bad is not that bad.

Yesterday alone...

Fuel to rise much further 

Food to rise much further

Shop assistants, ticket collectors, petrol attendants attacked by upset customers over prices.

Flights grounded

shopping brands cancelled over costs

Various materials no longer available

medicines in short supply

British Army too small(needs investment)

Markets collapsing

Pound collapsing

Doctors want 30% pay rise(and many others)

Household incomes, longest fall on record

............. there are far more miserable examples but wait for it and this is what made me laugh for real and "it's not all bad news"

 

House price data released(Nationwide I think) shows house prices still rising

 

[Plan-b]

35 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

 

House price data released(Nationwide I think) shows house prices still rising

 

A several month lagging indicator.

FA seems to selling in the areas I look except bargains and outstanding all-round quality

[Democorruptcy]

36 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

A several month lagging indicator.

FA seems to selling in the areas I look except bargains and outstanding all-round quality

Where are those?

[Chewing Grass]

On 25/06/2022 at 11:17, Chewing Grass said:

Saturday the 25th and we are now up to 189 after it fluctuating between 183 and 187 during the week due to additions and subtractions so steadily rising but not as fast as the previous weeks.

Remember this is the first half of a postcode search that covers a good and representative spread of houses from 2 up 2 down former factory terraces to millionaires places.

Friday the 1st July, just had a look (3 digit postcode search) and we are up to 198 listings and set to break the 200 mark next week. It must be more than 15 years since I've seen so many listings and most of the new ones are the fully 'love it or list it' blinged up variety that have had a fortune spent on them inline with the TV trends of the last 5 years.

So that's nearly another 5% more in a week.

[dnb24]

22 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Friday the 1st July, just had a look (3 digit postcode search) and we are up to 198 listings and set to break the 200 mark next week. It must be more than 15 years since I've seen so many listings and most of the new ones are the fully 'love it or list it' blinged up variety that have had a fortune spent on them inline with the TV trends of the last 5 years.

So that's nearly another 5% more in a week.

My area had been getting busy up to this week- no increase in numbers for this week so far.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Friday the 1st July, just had a look (3 digit postcode search) and we are up to 198 listings and set to break the 200 mark next week. It must be more than 15 years since I've seen so many listings and most of the new ones are the fully 'love it or list it' blinged up variety that have had a fortune spent on them inline with the TV trends of the last 5 years.

So that's nearly another 5% more in a week.

That's interesting. 

Nothing selling round us and back to pre-covid numbers of 75-100 listings a day coming on the market

Top end asking prices are whack Jack but some of the mid/low end ones starting to look nearly early 2020 now.  Loads of empty places, no chains, HMOs.

I'll do a full UK Property Lion Index early next week, haven't bothered with the monthly ones last 2 months but will released the quarterly ones for sure.

I had a think about the average figures this week and decided the numbers are way too skewed by a few top end priced properties/London so worked out the mean house price index.

Here's a graph with both on them




interesting the mean figure dipped in 2020, 2021 was flat and 2022 has shown a crazy rise....i'd wager as desperados try and exit the market at the new boom prices that never was.

As you can see from next chart, available listings started to climb a couple of months ago

so it will be interesting to see if that continues/accelerates.

If IRs hit 2% by year end and number of listings are back to 2019 levels, I dont see how house prices wont have tumbled 20%.

 

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

Would be interested to hear from anyone with an opinion on the median versus average house price figure.

Just spotted an error on my chart :-)

I've been bemoaning the data being skewed by London and the top end for some time and when I read this:

 

"It's best to use the mean when the distribution of the data values is symmetrical and there are no clear outliers. It's best to use the median when the the distribution of data values is skewed or when there are clear outliers"

I realised that the median was more valid than the average

 

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Where What are those?

[CVG]

27 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Would be interested to hear from anyone with an opinion on the median versus average house price figure.

Just spotted an error on my chart :-)

I've been bemoaning the data being skewed by London and the top end for some time and when I read this:

 

"It's best to use the mean when the distribution of the data values is symmetrical and there are no clear outliers. It's best to use the median when the the distribution of data values is skewed or when there are clear outliers"

I realised that the median was more valid than the average

 

 

When looking at performance stats for something completely different I used to to break the data into quintiles (20% ranges) and explore the averages (means) and other data about those.

You can obviously calculate skew to see the relationship between the median and mean. 

[haroldshand]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Friday the 1st July, just had a look (3 digit postcode search) and we are up to 198 listings and set to break the 200 mark next week. It must be more than 15 years since I've seen so many listings and most of the new ones are the fully 'love it or list it' blinged up variety that have had a fortune spent on them inline with the TV trends of the last 5 years.

So that's nearly another 5% more in a week.

I know tons of BTL who just never seem to ever sell in the past 20 years and now all of a sudden a handful are selling the odd one or two. I think most are dumping the ones they cannot heat properly, but it does surprise me that very few took profits over the years, especially around 2010/11

[Plan-b]

7 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Where are those?

Areas in the South West and Central M4 corridor 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Areas in the South West and Central M4 corridor 

Have you got a link to SSTC that you class as a bargain? I'd be interested to see what that is down there.

[Plan-b]

46 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have you got a link to SSTC that you class as a bargain? I'd be interested to see what that is down there.

Here you go..

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121399793#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/123512252#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119572184#/?channel=RES_BUY

When you say down there roughly where are you located, whats the property situation

in your area?

Edited July 1, 2022 by Plan-b