Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

First decent drop  have seen in a long while.

17% off. It's a good start.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85419147#/?channel=RES_BUY

Doubt the banks will be permitted to lend on EPC ‘E’ soon so you’d want to be living there quite a while..

there are several of these ex guest houses with 6/7 bed & baths in Shanklin & Sandown for similar money, most have parking. Ventnor is also known for subsidence..

[spygirl]

On 29/06/2022 at 09:13, spygirl said:

 

Longish post, of the all threads merge to one type.

An example of picking your way thru multiple data, surveys and whatnot to try and gauge the true picture.

Maybe only of direct interest to @One percentbut, as Ive said on here and TOS, Scarborough is the future. Lessons to be learned, trend to be extended etc etc.

This regards Scarborough borough rather than town.

The borough is the one that registers  in the census/ukgov figures. Steers -> Filey.

Census 2021 update!

Census: Population of England and Wales grew 6% in a decade

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61966084

 

Scarbs borough is one of the few falling places.

FT pop down 5%-10%.

This is mainly the holiday let writ large, and mainly around Whitby.

There just rent that many FHL in Scabby. Im sure theyve gone up in the last 10 years, but theyve risen from a base.

FHL in Whitby are now at curse level.

Next one - 

Older population in England and Wales hits record high

https://www.ft.com/content/c8334a2a-cef9-4ed8-9470-5a4dbcfcd351

https://www.ft.com/content/c8334a2a-cef9-4ed8-9470-5a4dbcfcd351

 

 

Hopefully this shows - its not a normal jpeg. Magic interactive chart.

The darker areas are where OAPs are 30%.

Scarbs is now 27.5%.

Again,. one of the handful of places where there is an extraordinary high number of OAPs.

Now UK town have between 20%-50% unemployment i.e. people dependent on one for of public money - TC,. UC, DLA etc etc for the majotiry (40%+) of their income,.

Scarbs is around 50%. This is more guesswork/deducing. But its roughly accurate.

Another FT -

Young men are slipping quietly through the economy’s cracks

A positive employment trend for young women masks a rise in the proportion of inactive young men

https://www.ft.com/content/388440d8-2dc7-4e3f-8107-b4b55edb8c6c

Its not employment for wimmin. Its comedy PT job to get the TC/UC cash and bennies. Thats all.

Faced with being taxed to pay for Fat Shazza and being outcompeted by Fat Shazza n Shazah on housing, off the boat, Dazza, Wazza, Dena is not even trying, falling out of the formal workforce.

Both Whitby n Scabby have had a large number (10%+ increase in housing stock) built inthe last 10 years.

The majority of it is going to Fat Shazza - 20% reserved for social rents/LHA, another 30% bought by BTL who benefit farm.

All this extra housing is getting scummy single mums  from boro, Leeds, Ull pouring into them.

'Dazza is very violent to me n the 6 kids. I want rehousing ...'

Basically every other shops has 'Apply within' in them.

Yet noone is available for work. 50% non working.

Labour labour everywhere but not a drop to work ...

Which brings me back to - Who the fuck is going to buy your house question?

30% of the population are OAPs. They are staying put, rarely moving.

50% of the working age (~50-60% of the population) are not working.

~15%-20% are students.

The number of mortgages i.e. the thing that drives the housing market must be fucking tiny.

The nubmer of IO BTL sales/housing sales are ramping up as th IO BTL look to quit. They are too late. Theer is no market and theyve played a mjor part in destroying the local OO market.

There still the idiots pouring into FHL

Time for action on Whitby second homes and Airbnb issue - Andrew Vine

IT’S an eerie feeling to walk through a village that feels utterly deserted, like stepping onto an empty film set before cast and crew arrive to bring it to life.

By Andrew Vine

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/time-for-action-on-whitby-second-homes-and-airbnb-issue-andrew-vine-3747030

That’s exactly the sensation I had a few weeks ago whilst walking the Yorkshire clifftop path between Saltburn and Whitby, on a weekday before the tourism season got into full swing.

Read More

Yorkshire's coastal towns must not be spoiled by second homes - The Yorkshire Po...

Sign up to our daily newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Notice and Terms of Service apply.

Passing through Staithes and Runswick Bay, there was hardly a soul to be seen.

The people of Whitby recently voted overwhelmingly in favour of restricting holiday lets and second homes to preserve their community.

Nobody out and about and no sign of life in the houses, many with their curtains closed on a bright afternoon.

This is not because the adults were all out at work and the children at school.

It’s because the populations of these villages have shrunk to a fraction of what they once were as second-home ownership has hollowed them out until they are all but empty of people outside weekends and the school holidays.

It is sad and depressing to see them like this, but they are far from the only examples on our coastline. A little farther south, in Whitby and Robin Hood’s Bay, there are streets which stand silent and empty for long stretches of the year.

Inexorably, the character of these places is being worn away by the march of second homes. People born there are squeezed out by visitors with deeper pockets who have little stake in the community and only the most transient connections to their history and heritage.

The people of Whitby recognised this when they voted so overwhelmingly to ban further second-home ownership. Though the poll has no legal force, it was an immensely valuable exercise in local democracy in which the town expressed its unease and spoke both eloquently and admirably of the importance of true community spirit.

Our coast is not alone in having that spirit undermined by those who see communities not as places to belong, but only as boltholes from busy working weeks in Leeds or Sheffield.

In the North Yorkshire Moors and the Dales, market towns are being drained of young families who should be the lifeblood of their futures because they cannot afford properties that are being snapped up at inflated prices as second homes.

And in York, MP Rachael Maskell is pressing for the licensing of Airbnb properties because so many have become noisy party venues spoiling the lives of nearby residents.

Thankfully, in Yorkshire we haven’t yet reached the crisis point of Cornwall where there are NHS staff living in caravans because so few properties remain available to rent or buy due to Airbnb lets, but it is surely only a matter of time before something similar starts happening.

The people of Whitby and all the other places so uneasy about the hollowing-out of their communities deserve to get their wish, for the sake of all the people trying to get a foot on the property ladder in places they love and belong, and also for the sake of the future.

Schools, community centres and shops face closure if permanent populations are gradually excluded and villages with once-distinctive identities and traditions are effectively reduced to nothing more than holiday camps.

Turning the tide against this less-than-benign invasion won’t be easy, but Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove’s attempts to make a start ought to be applauded by anybody worried about what is happening to so many places in Yorkshire and beyond.

His proposals to give elected mayors powers to ban owners of second homes from letting them on sites such as Airbnb are overdue. They are driving legitimate bed and breakfasts and hotels, which pay business rates and are part of their local communities, out of business.

Given the strength of feeling about this on the coast, the proposed new mayor for York and North Yorkshire would be likely to find this at the top of their agenda.

But Mr Gove should go farther. Local authorities will soon have the power to double council tax on unoccupied properties, but in Wales, the devolved administration plans to quadruple it, a move worth adopting nationwide if the country is serious about safeguarding communities and giving young people a chance of having a place of their own.

Changes to the planning laws are also needed, to make it far less attractive for Airbnb owners to turn a fast – and largely tax-free – few quid out of letting their second homes.

They are getting away with running businesses that are not subject to any regulation. Instead, they should be required to gain planning permission for a change of use, which would also make it easier for tax authorities to track down earnings from them.

This is about saving some of the most attractive places in Yorkshire from becoming ghost towns and villages, giving them a chance to remain what they should be – strong communities with a sense of identity, where people can build lives and bring up families.

 

Yorkshire communities being turned into nightmares due to Air BnB party houses, says MP

A Yorkshire MP has introduced a bill to licence short-term and holiday-let accommodation in a bid to stop visitors to the city turning “wonderful little communities in York into nightmares.”

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/yorkshire-communities-being-turned-into-nightmares-due-to-air-bnb-party-houses-says-mp-3745447

York Central MP Rachael Maskell said she is being contacted by constituents who no longer feel safe in their homes due to an increasing number of Airbnbs, with many becoming “party houses” hired by stag and hen groups.

Ms Maskelll said there were around 2,000 Airbnbs in her constituency and that they were becoming increasingly common in the outskirts of the city and in the more rural villages.

Sign up to our Politics newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Notice and Terms of Service apply.

Speaking in a debate in parliament about short-term letting, the MP said: “In the city centre, we often find streets—family streets—where there are five or six Airbnbs, and it is having a serious impact.”

Rachel Maskell

Ms Maskell said one property in a cul-de-sac in The Groves area was being advertised for 30 people

“It is at the end of a family residential street, and people in my community have told me that the noise goes on all night,” she said.

“People are half-clad in the streets. Women do not feel safe down some of the back alleys in the Groves, where a lot of children play.

Read More

Man died 'after contracting salmonella from duck eggs bought at a country show'

“People do not feel safe in their own home anymore. I heard from one family who put their house on the market and moved out of the city, which was the only way they could escape the party houses that were increasingly in their area.”

Ms Maskell said developers were turning domestic homes into short-term lets and that the issue was distorting the local housing market.

She added: “Every single time a property comes on to the housing market, in come these owners of Airbnb, cash in hand, hoovering up the properties ahead of people who have saved meticulously for their mortgage. And they are offering over the market price for those properties.”

A private members’ bill introduced by Ms Maskell this week would see a licence required to turn domestic properties into short-term and holiday-let accommodation, give local authorities the power to issue fines and to remove licences, and seek to introduce bans on such properties in certain areas.

Ms Maskell pointed to European cities such as Nice and Lisbon which have had success in introducing licensing schemes. Scotland is also seeking to introduce similar measures.

City of York Council’s executive member for housing, Coun Denise Craghill, has instructed council officers to look at the scale of the issue and explore options for tackling problems in the city.

She added: “I met recently with Rachael Maskell and residents from the Groves who have been suffering from the impacts of large scale holiday lets in the streets including excessive noise and disturbance.

“These cases and a number of others are currently being actively pursued by planning enforcement as material change of use.

“Unfortunately, as current change of use legislation stands, each case has to be pursued on its own individual merits – so any further powers at the national level whether through planning or a licensing scheme would be very welcome. In the meantime, I will continue to look into measures we can take locally.”

Ms Maskell added that the plans for a simple registration scheme being considered by the government did not go far enough.

“The world has changed rapidly,” she said. “I just say to them that we need to move on from that now and look at a full licensing scheme. A registration scheme would simply have serious deficiencies.”

The next stage for the bill, its second reading, is scheduled to take place in December.

 

You can bet money of FHL n AirBNB requriing planning and the removal of SBRR for FHLs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Local paper reporting the same but managing to fuck it up, as local paper do.

Census 2022: Scarborough's population is ageing and has risen by just seven in last decade, new data reveals

Scarborough's population is ageing and has risen slightly in the last ten years, the latest official census data has revealed.

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/people/census-2022-scarboroughs-population-is-ageing-and-has-risen-by-just-seven-in-last-decade-new-data-reveals-3755877

Figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there were 29,900 people aged 65 and over living in Scarborough on census day last year – up from 25,320 in 2011 when the census was last carried out.

It means the proportion of over-65s living in the area rose over the last decade – from 23.3 per cent to 27.5 per cent.

There were 31,000 people aged 29 and under living in Scarborough on March 21 last year, who accounted for 28.5 per cent of the population – down from 34,281 (31.5 per cent) in 2011.

Of them, 10,000 under-10s called Scarborough home.

Scarborough ,the town, is ~60k.

Scarborough borough, including Whitby and down to Filey, is ~100k.

In the last 10 years, Whitby alone has built 1000-200 houses - I cant remember which, but theres been several new and extended estates been put up.

Scarborough town has had 3000-4000+ new houses built.

Yet the conned population increases by ..... 7!

There has been a rise in the number of people living in Scarborough. On census day, 108,800 people were living in the area – up slightly from 108,793 in 2011, when the last census was carried out.

Whats at play?

There are 1000s of single mums who probably cant be arsed to fill in census.

Scarborough town alone has several 1000 EE, who wont or cant fill in the census.

The number of mortgage people in the age 25-55 must be tiny. No fucker works.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

I am watching the £Pound closely at the moment more than anything else, I can see a run on it before Christmas and that's when everything will go into meltdown and what we have seen so far will be nothing. If the Dollar matches the Pound then it's 5% minimum for interest rates and the BOE will have no say in it.

I agree,that's the real threat to thsoe mortgage holders exposed to rate rises.Last year a mate of mien asked me what I'd do if I was him ref remortgage.Saw a while back as all the rate rise stuff was getting airtime and he said he was so releived to get a ten year.WIll see him through.Anazed mroe didn't do it.

Whetehr hosue prices will protect agaisnt inflation is a point of debate, a decent length fixed mrotgage means it's the answer is of less consequence than otherwise.

We normally sit on 20% cash min,but last week put a fair bit more into PM's.Whetehr sterling gets hit is oen of those debates I prefer to have when it's of less consequence to me.

[One percent]

17 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Local paper reporting the same but managing to fuck it up, as local paper do.

Census 2022: Scarborough's population is ageing and has risen by just seven in last decade, new data reveals

Scarborough's population is ageing and has risen slightly in the last ten years, the latest official census data has revealed.

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/people/census-2022-scarboroughs-population-is-ageing-and-has-risen-by-just-seven-in-last-decade-new-data-reveals-3755877

Figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there were 29,900 people aged 65 and over living in Scarborough on census day last year – up from 25,320 in 2011 when the census was last carried out.

It means the proportion of over-65s living in the area rose over the last decade – from 23.3 per cent to 27.5 per cent.

There were 31,000 people aged 29 and under living in Scarborough on March 21 last year, who accounted for 28.5 per cent of the population – down from 34,281 (31.5 per cent) in 2011.

Of them, 10,000 under-10s called Scarborough home.

Scarborough ,the town, is ~60k.

Scarborough borough, including Whitby and down to Filey, is ~100k.

In the last 10 years, Whitby alone has built 1000-200 houses - I cant remember which, but theres been several new and extended estates been put up.

Scarborough town has had 3000-4000+ new houses built.

Yet the conned population increases by ..... 7!

There has been a rise in the number of people living in Scarborough. On census day, 108,800 people were living in the area – up slightly from 108,793 in 2011, when the last census was carried out.

Whats at play?

There are 1000s of single mums who probably cant be arsed to fill in census.

Scarborough town alone has several 1000 EE, who wont or cant fill in the census.

The number of mortgage people in the age 25-55 must be tiny. No fucker works.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Population of whitby is dropping yet, as you say, massive amounts of newbuild. It’s all second homes.  With a few social bits that they move the smoggy scum into. 

[Bobthebuilder]

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I agree,that's the real threat to thsoe mortgage holders exposed to rate rises.Last year a mate of mien asked me what I'd do if I was him ref remortgage.Saw a while back as all the rate rise stuff was getting airtime and he said he was so releived to get a ten year.WIll see him through.Anazed mroe didn't do it.

I gently guided my old apprentice towards a ten year fix not so long ago, he got one around 2%.

Other mates are still getting 2 year fixes with fees.

[haroldshand]

29 minutes ago, One percent said:

Population of whitby is dropping yet, as you say, massive amounts of newbuild. It’s all second homes.  With a few social bits that they move the smoggy scum into. 

I really like Whitby and it's my favourite spot for wreck fishing, been there too many times to count, always wondered what it would be like to live there

[One percent]

18 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I really like Whitby and it's my favourite spot for wreck fishing, been there too many times to count, always wondered what it would be like to live there

 

it’s great living here, other than the tourists.   

[haroldshand]

5 minutes ago, One percent said:

 

it’s great living here, other than the tourists.   

 

5 minutes ago, One percent said:

 

it’s great living here, other than the tourists.   

I really need to look around there more and especially the coast south and north of Whitby and the Yorkshire Moors., I looked at the houses only a few years back there and could have got something really nice with the money I had, was doing the maths to see if I could get back to Cambridgeshire once in a while and with  someone else to run things, but thought it might be too tiring, regret it a little now.

I always think of that scene from American werewolf when I am up that way

Do you sea fish at all?   Massive cod out there on the wrecks

[One percent]

8 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

 

I really need to look around there more and especially the coast south and north of Whitby and the Yorkshire Moors., I looked at the houses only a few years back there and could have got something really nice with the money I had, was doing the maths to see if I could get back to Cambridgeshire once in a while and with  someone else to run things, but thought it might be too tiring, regret it a little now.

I always think of that scene from American werewolf when I am up that way

Do you sea fish at all?   Massive cod out there on the wrecks

Nope, not into fishing at all. It’s a very nice part of the world with sea one side and moors the other.  It’s getting more difficult to get away from the madding crowd 

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I agree,that's the real threat to thsoe mortgage holders exposed to rate rises.Last year a mate of mien asked me what I'd do if I was him ref remortgage.Saw a while back as all the rate rise stuff was getting airtime and he said he was so releived to get a ten year.WIll see him through.Anazed mroe didn't do it.

Whetehr hosue prices will protect agaisnt inflation is a point of debate, a decent length fixed mrotgage means it's the answer is of less consequence than otherwise.

We normally sit on 20% cash min,but last week put a fair bit more into PM's.Whetehr sterling gets hit is oen of those debates I prefer to have when it's of less consequence to me.

Around 2017 I got a lot of abuse and stick on ToS for daring to say their property crash mantra had flaws and it was quite clear that there were a lot posters that went way way back further than me who were also predicting a crash back then.

I am convinced it began when those who experienced the 1990's crash who thought exactly the same was happening again and fed  that BS to youngsters without taking into account politics at all, the letting in of 10 million immigrants for starters not including a debt frenzy, Jesus I just realised you could type for pages on the crap that was allowed this time around.

I think right now and if I had the inclination to post on ToS I would for the first time be posting "Crash possibly coming" but it would just be missed with the thousands of other certain imminent crashes.

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I am convinced it began when those who experienced the 1990's crash who thought exactly the same was happening again...

Every General fights the last war, it's the human condition.

Ironically many in the media are anchoring expectations of any house price drops to 2008, the last time it happened. In a similar manner expectations of inflation are always framed with reference to the 1970s, again the last time it happened.

[Frank Hovis]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Ironically many in the media are anchoring expectations of any house price drops to 2008

 

It must depend upon where you were at the time.  I was in London for the 1988 - 1996 property crash and it was massive and heavily affected people's lives.

I genuinely didn't notice the 2008 property "crash" in real life, probably because I wasn't living in London, and saw it as more of a minor correction then a crash when I looked at the stats.

1988 was the start of a genuine crash and was caused by the people who had borrowed and paid too much for houses in a rush to buy in London in the late eighties being vulnerable to any downturn in prices through negative equity and being forced to sell up.

In Cornwall now I look at prices to average earnings and think it's mental but there has been no rush into the market by large numbers of overstretched buyers and so the vulnerability isn't there.

There has maybe been a 20% froth in asking prices owing to people wanting a coastal lockdown retreat with a garden which will evaporate over the next few years because you no longer have those desperate buyers.

I don't however see any obvious mechanism for a crash (in Cornwall) and think that after that asking price correction house prices will continue to rise in nominal terms but IMHO below wage inflation so that there is a steady, but very slow, reduction in the average house prices / average local wages ratio.

That to me makes houses look like a poor investment but most people will just look at the rising nominal price and think smugly to themselves "You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar."

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

...I don't however see any obvious mechanism for a crash (in Cornwall)...

Assuming Cornish prices are largely set by second houses and London equity, I can't imagine many worse places in terms of house prices going forward. As you say there were few transactions during the COVID/WFH era, with those sales moving paper prices dramatically. IMO anyone feeling the pinch and dumping their Cornish second home, into a market awash with supply from similar sellers, will be shocked at the offers local wages can support.

I hadn't even started high school in 89, but can remember adults telling me about 20k of negative equity in the early 1990s as an unimaginably large sum.

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

It must depend upon where you were at the time.  I was in London for the 1988 - 1996 property crash and it was massive and heavily affected people's lives.

I genuinely didn't notice the 2008 property "crash" in real life, probably because I wasn't living in London, and saw it as more of a minor correction then a crash when I looked at the stats.

1988 was the start of a genuine crash and was caused by the people who had borrowed and paid too much for houses in a rush to buy in London in the late eighties being vulnerable to any downturn in prices through negative equity and being forced to sell up.

In Cornwall now I look at prices to average earnings and think it's mental but there has been no rush into the market by large numbers of overstretched buyers and so the vulnerability isn't there.

There has maybe been a 20% froth in asking prices owing to people wanting a coastal lockdown retreat with a garden which will evaporate over the next few years because you no longer have those desperate buyers.

I don't however see any obvious mechanism for a crash (in Cornwall) and think that after that asking price correction house prices will continue to rise in nominal terms but IMHO below wage inflation so that there is a steady, but very slow, reduction in the average house prices / average local wages ratio.

That to me makes houses look like a poor investment but most people will just look at the rising nominal price and think smugly to themselves "You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar."

 

Granted this is the US but there is most definitely a very obvious mechanism for a crash.

The question is does Clap For Bankers Boris willing to crash prices....he certainly doesn't seem to want to.

He wont be there much longer though, hopefully.

 

Bit more context there, the US rates are back to 2007 levels

[Frank Hovis]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Assuming Cornish prices are largely set by second houses and London equity, I can't imagine many worse places in terms of house prices going forward. As you say there were few transactions during the COVID/WFH era, with those sales moving paper prices dramatically. IMO anyone feeling the pinch and dumping their Cornish second home, into a market awash with supply from similar sellers, will be shocked at the offers local wages can support.

I hadn't even started high school in 89, but can remember adults telling me about 20k of negative equity in the early 1990s as an unimaginably large sum.

 

Of course I could be wrong but there are a lot of very comfortably off people down here and those with second homes would definitely be in that category.  The transactions I'm aware of have all been cash transactions; the cottage with the sea view is not being bought by someone on local wages stretching their finances to the limit.  It's people with a spare half million or million buying somewhere nice for holidays or retirement.

A precursor for a rapid crash has to be a lot of people being pushed into forced sales and I don't see what would do that down here bar possibly our following Wales' move to 400% council tax for second home ownership.

I agree that the floor from local wages' support is far below the current prices but it really doesn't seem to matter as with nice coastal and countryside places the country over the key ratio is more usually local house prices / SE wages.

[HousePriceMania]

What will the mortgage rates be when interest rates hit 5%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/uk-households-can-withstand-rates-of-up-to-5-boe-says?srnd=premium-uk#xj4y7vzkg

and the Term Funding scam is long gone and the banks are being told to build a buffer

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/bank-of-england-tells-lenders-to-prepare-for-deteriorated-economic-outlook/ar-AAZdoNt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=570b83e23e6c432e8af76d884b30c36a

 

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Granted this is the US but there is most definitely a very obvious mechanism for a crash.

 

It needs people exposed on those mortages though.

I heard this year that the two most junior, as in lowest paid, members of of one of my old teams had each paid off their mortgages over the last couple of years.  People aged about fifty.

This is fairly typical as, depending upon when you started work, you either bought cheaply twenty or more years ago or, if starting work much after this, you have always rented as local wages can no longer command sufficient mortgage borrowings to buy a house.

Two points to note:

• I am only talking about Cornwall - a market I know well. 
• I very much would love to see a HPC in Cornwall.  I'm not talking the market up I simple don't see from where a crash would arise within Cornwall; though London crashing would bring down the whole country.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Of course I could be wrong but there are a lot of very comfortably off people down here and those with second homes would definitely be in that category. 

I could be wrong, but I could imagine a lot of "well off" types liquidating assets behind the scenes to keep up the illusion of being completely unaffected by the recession.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Of course I could be wrong but there are a lot of very comfortably off people down here and those with second homes would definitely be in that category.  The transactions I'm aware of have all been cash transactions; the cottage with the sea view is not being bought by someone on local wages stretching their finances to the limit.  It's people with a spare half million or million buying somewhere nice for holidays or retirement.

A precursor for a rapid crash has to be a lot of people being pushed into forced sales and I don't see what would do that down here bar possibly our following Wales' move to 400% council tax for second home ownership.

I agree that the floor from local wages' support is far below the current prices but it really doesn't seem to matter as with nice coastal and countryside places the country over the key ratio is more usually local house prices / SE wages.

I am sure there are.  From my experience though the very comfortably well off is usually

a) In the minority ( 10% )

b) Faking it with debt.

But I agree, a lot of money from London headed to the coast.

A BK Stock market collapse, however, could see a lot of people trying to liquidate assets quickly.  

Plenty mechanisms but none that as far as I can tell the tories will not move heaven and earth to stop.

In Northants I am seeing insane prices at the top end with middle/bottom end starting to fall.  Any decent houses are being marketed to rich londoners.  Maybv local agents being strung out would also have an impact on prices :-) 

It's getting interesting for sure.

 

[Frank Hovis]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I could be wrong, but I could imagine a lot of "well off" types liquidating assets behind the scenes to keep up the illusion of being completely unaffected by the recession.

 

It's really not that type here in the main except when the holiday hordes arrive.

Of course there are some younger people with their chavblack Range Rovers and designer daps but generally the home owners are older, mostly retired, people who have money but don't flaunt it.

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

 

it’s great living here, other than the tourists. neighbours  

FTFY

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Frank Hovis said:

It's really not that type here in the main except when the holiday hordes arrive.

Of course there are some younger people with their chavblack Range Rovers and designer daps but generally the home owners are older, mostly retired, people who have money but don't flaunt it.

Yeah, I don't know the area TBF. My whole perspective is based on a certain type of person that seemed to all announce they had bought a second home during COVID. Maybe they were just faking it with an AirBNB

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I could be wrong, but I could imagine a lot of "well off" types liquidating assets behind the scenes to keep up the illusion of being completely unaffected by the recession.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-margin-call-358106

 

 

The broker may launch a lawsuit against you demanding immediate payment, including legal costs. The remedies available depend on the laws of your state, but they may include forcing you to disclose your entire financial situation under oath, including: 

 

• Income
• Assets
• Debts

 

Your bank accounts and other personal property may also be garnished or seized, including putting real estate investments up for sale.

 

I personally have an investment account with Interactive Brokers and can buy

Buying Power £310,861.28

worth of shares, which is approx 4x what I put in the trading account.

If the market crashes 80% I'd have to stump up £200,000 with very very short notice.

I have the margin account so I can short some shares but can you imagine giving a london wide boy access to £300,000 in a market he thinks he can't lose on ?

It's hard to get rich honestly, a lot of the london wealth is off the back of leverage and debt.

Also an economic down turn could see bankers/investors losing their jobs en-masse...suddenly your £800,000 mortgage is a weight round your neck.  

 

As you say Frank a lot of the people you are talking about is the older generation with their nice pensions and mad gains from property.....that's as safe as houses.

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

By the way Frank, did you get one of those bread knives ?

[Boon]

At last some stats, been seeing it with my own eyes.

Funny how a lot of people bleating in the comments that cladding is to blame..... no, it's idiots egged on by government schemes overpaying for stuff that is more of a cause.