Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

No amazingly this was by Melissa about a big a property ramper as you could get

Does she really exist ?

[Joncrete Cungle]

4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Fuck me..

That really is truly shocking to me, I sometimes think things are far worse than I thought, maybe I am cushioned by Village life too much. So many people must be living in fear constantly.

Lots of people spend everything they earn each month, or more than they earn each month.

Something like 3% of the under 40's I know would have enough savings / gold / assets to keep them going for 6 months with no weekly / monthly pay cheque. The rest live hand to mouth despite having new cars, new houses etc. An illusion of wealth built on debt.

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Divorce is one of the most destructive things a family can do to itself, especially financially. I have a similar story of couple that went from a detached house in a village, to a town centre one-bed flat and the son-in-law's spare room respectively.

Not divorcing can be just as destructive for many families My ex walked away with a good deal more than half and deserved  every penny of it. The more I read about some divorces today and not that I never realised it anyway I walked away far better off than many, mind you we never hated each other on parting.

[haroldshand]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Does she really exist ?

Interesting point, you never know

[Transistor Man]

On 02/07/2022 at 10:33, Democorruptcy said:

Thanks for the links.

I'm on Anglesey at the moment, prices here are driven by the staycation madness. I'd say +50% since covid started. Though there are recent signs of stuff being reduced and coming back to market.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124575029#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78172005#/?channel=RES_BUY

I'm from Anglesey originally. Those prices are incredible, 

[HousePriceMania]

New headline every hour at the mo....

 

Britain's economic outlook has 'deteriorated materially', inflation is set to soar above 11 % and the property boom will end, warns Bank of England.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10985851/Bank-England-warns-pain-ahead-families-amid-squeeze-finances.html

It seems house prices falling is a headache for British families and it's not a massive bubble, it's a boom.

It's a fucking crime that's what it really is.

 

[haroldshand]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

New headline every hour at the mo....

 

Britain's economic outlook has 'deteriorated materially', inflation is set to soar above 11 % and the property boom will end, warns Bank of England.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10985851/Bank-England-warns-pain-ahead-families-amid-squeeze-finances.html

It seems house prices falling is a headache for British families and it's not a massive bubble, it's a boom.

It's a fucking crime that's what it really is.

 

Not sure when TOS came into being, but if has been in the last two years they would today be seen as geniuses, looks their reputation is going to be based on the stopped clock analogy and it looks like the correct time have finally caught up with the stooped correct hand on the clock.

[Bobthebuilder]

17 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Not sure when TOS came into being

I first discovered the place in 2004. It was on a really old scrolling answer type forum skin, It changed to a newer forum skin late that year and I first signed up in January 2005. It was quite an exciting place back then, lots of talk about the upcoming credit crunch (K winter) as they used to call it. Unfortunately it became an echo chamber IMHO and ceased to be of much use after 2012, until someone created a deflation thread some years later.

[HousePriceMania]

24 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Not sure when TOS came into being, but if has been in the last two years they would today be seen as geniuses, looks their reputation is going to be based on the stopped clock analogy and it looks like the correct time have finally caught up with the stooped correct hand on the clock.

The collapse from 2008 was paused not stopped.

The majority can never win from an investment scam, it doesn't matter how long to takes to collapse.

Sure, you can speculate on it but make sure you're out before the collapse comes.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Madoff

Madoff maintained that he began his fraud in the early 1990s

In 1999, financial analyst Harry Markopolos had informed the SEC that he believed it was legally and mathematically impossible to achieve the gains Madoff claimed to deliver. According to Markopolos, it took him four minutes to conclude that Madoff's numbers did not add up, and another minute to suspect they were fraudulent


Madoff's scam took years to collapse, even when people warned about it.

There's no accounting for stupidity.

Edited July 6, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[Joncrete Cungle]

Starting to see some double digit price drops in my search area, that are not crappy flats in shite areas / 2 bed terraces in gimmegrant land.

[HousePriceMania]

The prices are still mad and will continue to be so until mortgage rates really shoot up and HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE is all over the headlines.

Till then, everyone is hanging on for top whack.

Not many will get it.

[haroldshand]

5 hours ago, King Penda said:

The Bank of England claims people can afford to pay higher mortgages has rates increase the guy at Lloyd’s says hold my pint to that .

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/06/struggling-homeowners-embarrassed-accept-support/

Struggling homeowners ‘too embarrassed’ to accept support

Just carrying on from what you posted earlier again in the DT" Two in Three homeowners in financial difficulties".

What the f*** is going on in this past week, it is like there has been some huge meeting this week where the politicians, financial institutions, BOE and MSM have finally have had to submit and unleash the truth they cannot lie about anymore

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

What the f*** is going on in this past week, it is like there has been some huge meeting this week where the politicians, financial institutions, BOE and MSM have finally have had to submit and unleash the truth they cannot lie about anymore

I have a theory that they have to front run things like this, even if only by days, to avoid panic. The minute something becomes a prediction it becomes reassuring on some level to see it play out, rather than unsettling. The joker quote about things going to plan, even if the plan is horrifying etc.

[haroldshand]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

I have a theory that they have to front run things like this, even if only by days, to avoid panic. The minute something becomes a prediction it becomes reassuring on some level to see it play out, rather than unsettling. The joker quote about things going to plan, even if the plan is horrifying etc.

Exactly what I was thinking and vaguely something similar to what  I witnessed in the early 1990's. Seemed there were tons of smiles and great nights out and I along with loads of other mates including my Sisters bought homes at the age of 18 to early 20's and then the economy just tanked and in no time at all and the handful of new builds I was doing 1st and 2nd fixes on just boarded up and would not start building again for several years.

I bumped into old plumbers, sparks and brickies and all the guys I was 100% certain were doing OK were in fact in  dire straights financially(always remember this one bloke crying), all on the edge of a cliff and I had no idea. I had to  move on from site work and moved onto fibre optics  and SD engineering which I never really loved.

Nothing in the media gave any hint that the UK was about to turn until the 11th hour and soon after life became hard for a lot of people who on the surface looked fine

 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

New headline every hour at the mo....

 

Britain's economic outlook has 'deteriorated materially', inflation is set to soar above 11 % and the property boom will end, warns Bank of England.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10985851/Bank-England-warns-pain-ahead-families-amid-squeeze-finances.html

It seems house prices falling is a headache for British families and it's not a massive bubble, it's a boom.

It's a fucking crime that's what it really is.

 

It’s started just checked zoopla ,it’s informed me that my house has droped in value by 500 shiney pounds ,is the game afoot ?

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Exactly what I was thinking and vaguely something similar to what  I witnessed in the early 1990's. Seemed there were tons of smiles and great nights out and I along with loads of other mates including my Sisters bought homes at the age of 18 to early 20's and then the economy just tanked and in no time at all and the handful of new builds I was doing 1st and 2nd fixes on just boarded up and would not start building again for several years.

I bumped into old plumbers, sparks and brickies and all the guys I was 100% certain were doing OK were in fact in  dire straights financially(always remember this one bloke crying), all on the edge of a cliff and I had no idea. I had to  move on from site work and moved onto fibre optics  and SD engineering which I never really loved.

Nothing in the media gave any hint that the UK was about to turn until the 11th hour and soon after life became hard for a lot of people who on the surface looked fine

 

I remember my Aunt was highly embarrassed that my cousin had to the hand the keys back on his flat when the property market tanked in the 90’s.

She had always banged on about the virtues of property/bricks and mortar and was delighted even then telling everyone how fabulous they were all doing and how much their properties were worth.

But then again she never changed and still does the exact same thing ever after until this day. Nothing learnt, but then again people don’t want to think about negative outcomes in something that they have emotional attachment to.

Look on mumsnet for proof of that, any negative comments in regards to property prices have them foaming at the mouths.

 Short memories and free flowing access to cheap debt are the reason we are all in this mess.

[With a crooked smile]

6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

That's good news, the media message will start changing from high and increasing house prices being great news to questioning where such leaves working people in their twenties and thirties.

If they work in construction which is all basically zero hours contracts oftem wrapped up as self employment it leaves them without a job and unable to take advantage of whatever is going on it the market. 

Most of my major bits of renovation have taken place during a recession. It's the most cost effective time. This time might.be different tho. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the prices of building materials.

[King Penda]

55 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/06/struggling-homeowners-embarrassed-accept-support/

Struggling homeowners ‘too embarrassed’ to accept support

Just carrying on from what you posted earlier again in the DT" Two in Three homeowners in financial difficulties".

What the f*** is going on in this past week, it is like there has been some huge meeting this week where the politicians, financial institutions, BOE and MSM have finally have had to submit and unleash the truth they cannot lie about anymore

It’s been on the cards for years I probably won’t like what’s coming but a lot of people who are a lot more wealthy than me (allegadly will I suspect like it a lot less ).

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Where does a man go after a ruinous divorce when his wife has the house?

Rented flat, houseshare, static caravan, park lodge.

Whilst Tony Blair is clearly a dangerous idiot one of his team worked the numbers and demonstrated that there is actually enough housing for everyone if it was evenly distributed.

This then opens the door to financially penalising second home owners and holiday lets (Hurrah!!!) and penalising rather than rewarding under-occupation (Boo!!!!!) so that you encourage more effective usage of existing housing rather than continually building more.

As per an IoW article that @Wight Flight posted the number of second homes / holiday lets on the IoW roughly equates to the number of families there waiting on the housing register.  Their housing crisis could be solved at a stroke and this would be a similar situation across all nice coastal and rural areas in the nation.

 

 

HMO, Trafalgar Square, Scarborough.

 

[Boon]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I remember my Aunt was highly embarrassed that my cousin had to the hand the keys back on his flat when the property market tanked in the 90’s.

She had always banged on about the virtues of property/bricks and mortar and was delighted even then telling everyone how fabulous they were all doing and how much their properties were worth.

But then again she never changed and still does the exact same thing ever after until this day. Nothing learnt, but then again people don’t want to think about negative outcomes in something that they have emotional attachment to.

Look on mumsnet for proof of that, any negative comments in regards to property prices have them foaming at the mouths.

 Short memories and free flowing access to cheap debt are the reason we are all in this mess.

I regularly scan mumsnet (thank you for your service in making comments) and MSE for a good unbiased representation of the average person.

One thing that is lacking still as far as I see it, not enough stories like the ones above. At this moment in time someone having to hand the keys back is unheard of - don't think I've read one of that type on there recently (and in any case might not happen because you'd still be liable for shortfall).

Once the bad experience stories start coming out in good numbers I think that would be a very strong tool to turn sentiment.

Unfortunately I do think we are not at that point yet, and the average person will still be very bullish on property. 

 

[spygirl]

16 hours ago, tank said:

They will never let sort of crash happen again, imo.

Not only will there be more bailouts but mortgage restbite periods for those temporarily unable to pay.

The world has changed since the 1980s and 90s, even 2008.  The belief that we still have a functioning democracy with political choice in this country went out with Blair and it's the same story everywhere else in the developed world. It's a world run by ultra liberal technocrats with the illusion of democratic choice kept afloat via the usual distractions e.g. wokery.

They - any country thats not the US - dont have a choice.

 

[spygirl]

46 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Exactly what I was thinking and vaguely something similar to what  I witnessed in the early 1990's. Seemed there were tons of smiles and great nights out and I along with loads of other mates including my Sisters bought homes at the age of 18 to early 20's and then the economy just tanked and in no time at all and the handful of new builds I was doing 1st and 2nd fixes on just boarded up and would not start building again for several years.

I bumped into old plumbers, sparks and brickies and all the guys I was 100% certain were doing OK were in fact in  dire straights financially(always remember this one bloke crying), all on the edge of a cliff and I had no idea. I had to  move on from site work and moved onto fibre optics  and SD engineering which I never really loved.

Nothing in the media gave any hint that the UK was about to turn until the 11th hour and soon after life became hard for a lot of people who on the surface looked fine

 

Journo dont have a clue.

Jounrnos are some of thel laziest people going.

If they can spin an everyone wins story and sells papers then thats what they do.

Sadly, for journo, print jounros are down ~80% since the 80s recession.

As a job/career. journalism just doesnt exist.

And lazy journalism paid a major part in that - Im not paying for <local paper>. its just full of crap opinion pieces and ads.

 

[One percent]

10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

They - any country thats not the US - dont have a choice.

 

This. If anyone remembers black Wednesday, the government was in full-out panic. They had no choice but to raise interest rates to protect the pound. Pound has dropped again today has it not?  The government’s hand will be forced. Probably why sunak bailed yesterday 

[haroldshand]

11 minutes ago, King Penda said:

It’s been on the cards for years I probably won’t like what’s coming but a lot of people who are a lot more wealthy than me (allegadly will I suspect like it a lot less ).

If I remember rightly though you correctly said if houses fell then the better one you wanted would be cheaper, lets hope your plan works and get your arse moved to Buxton or somewhere nicer

[One percent]

Just now, haroldshand said:

If I remember rightly though you correctly said if houses fell then the better one you wanted would be cheaper, lets hope your plan works and get your arse moved to Buxton or somewhere nicer

Not here though, we are full.