Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[lid]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

What's going to be most important though is what is happening within bands. 

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/14057579/liam-gallagher-confirms-oasis-reunion/

Just wondering what effect this will have on the wider market

[No One]

 

Quote

European stocks mostly fell on Friday amid fears of a rise in interest rates and a continued rotation out of growth stocks into the likes of industrials.

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) fell sharply after opening but recovered losses by mid-morning thanks to a steep fall in the pound. London's benchmark index is currently trading 0.19% higher.

In the eurozone, the CAC (^FCHI) tumbled 0.56% and the DAX (^GDAXI) was 0.73% lower.

Traders were left disappointed last night after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell did not indicate that the Fed might step up purchases of long-term bonds to hold down longer-term interest rates.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: “The Federal Reserve’s insistence that it believes these inflation moves are transitory was not enough to arrest a further spike in bond yields, as investors fretted that there were no plans to control the longer end of the yield curve.

“At the same time, the perceived threat of higher interest rates arriving earlier than expected washed through to the shares which could be most obviously affected by the resultant slowing of profits.”

 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Im mid 40s it shouldnt be a starter home, it should be enough to buy a 90m2 semi or detached house in a good area.

90m2 is a starter home. 

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, No One said:

I really really hope this is the case.

All my punts in stocks are for the sole purpose of buying a house. Basically I'm gambling to be able to buy a house. (this is not advice) and if this is coupled with a HPC then as my stocks go up and HP's go down I may be able to grab something, finally.

Only issue is I'm a contractor, and whilst I'm getting minted, getting a loan might be difficult. I'm aiming for a 10% deposit from my side and another 10% from my wife. 20% down on a house has got to get a cheaper mortgage me thinks.

 

I am early 50's, and self employed, so a mortgage is not going to be possible.

I am hoping to be able to save enough cash over the next 10 years to buy for about £400k. The only two problems are that the houses I am looking at went up £40k last year, and if I actually do, from the sweat of my own brow, save up £400k, I think it unlikely I am going to want to hand it over to some boomer inheritee.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, No One said:

So basically they borrow from Central Bank at next to nothing, give you nothing on your savigns account, they scoop up housing and rent it out to the serfs.

You missed the bit of taxpayers bailing them out in the 00s, as if they didnt the price of property would have crashed to never seen before lows thus enabling the financially raped taxpayer to buy at affordable prices.

And without the bailout British banks would all have gone out of business.

Capitalism LIBLABCON style, aka communism.

[goldbug9999]

27 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I am early 50's, and self employed, so a mortgage is not going to be possible.

I got one no problem, the idiots even gave me a term running to when I'm 75 so quite possibly I wont live to pay half of it back. Granted this was a contractor day rate based package not a self employed with submitted accounts and all that bollocks.

Edited March 5, 2021 by goldbug9999

[Hancock]

48 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I am early 50's, and self employed, so a mortgage is not going to be possible.

If yove got a couple of hundred grand a  mortgage will surely be simple enough for a contractor to get.

Granted a 95% mortgage may not be on offer, though after this week there'd be no harm in asking.

[Wight Flight]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

If yove got a couple of hundred grand a  mortgage will surely be simple enough for a contractor to get.

Granted a 95% mortgage may not be on offer, though after this week there'd be no harm in asking.

I am not a contractor. I run my own business.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

I am not a contractor. I run my own business.

But if you've say 200k and wish to borrow 200k then surely a bank will gladly assist you?

All they're worried about is getting their 200k back and this way you've more or less guaranteed it.

[Wight Flight]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

But if you've say 200k and wish to borrow 200k then surely a bank will gladly assist you?

All they're worried about is getting their 200k back and this way you've more or less guaranteed it.

I'll look into it when I have £200k.

Problem, is, by then I will probably need to borrow £400k.

Might just stay renting forever 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

I'll look into it when I have £200k.

Problem, is, by then I will probably need to borrow £400k.

Might just stay renting forever 

Im still optimistic for a full on HPC, i just dont think it'll happen prior to September.

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I am early 50's, and self employed, so a mortgage is not going to be possible.

I am hoping to be able to save enough cash over the next 10 years to buy for about £400k. The only two problems are that the houses I am looking at went up £40k last year, and if I actually do, from the sweat of my own brow, save up £400k, I think it unlikely I am going to want to hand it over to some boomer inheritee.

 

3 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I am not a contractor. I run my own business.

Move to Scabby.

Best bang for buck, scum n housing cost considered.

And just over 3h by train to London. I've done it in 2.50m once.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

7 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I'll look into it when I have £200k.

Problem, is, by then I will probably need to borrow £400k.

Might just stay renting forever 

All the people getting currently getting mortgages will be doing the same.

But they will be replacing their own boilers and chipping in for roof repairs to the freeholder who has a brother with a roofing company etc etc,....

Edited March 5, 2021 by Bus Stop Boxer

[Don Coglione]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

Move to Scabby.

Best bang for buck, scum n housing cost considered.

And just over 3h by train to London. I've done it in 2.50m once.

Presumably you told the driver to fuck off out of the train cab and drove it there yourself at SpySpeed?

[RJT1979]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

But if you've say 200k and wish to borrow 200k then surely a bank will gladly assist you?

All they're worried about is getting their 200k back and this way you've more or less guaranteed it.

Mmr rules. I have 300k deposit. Want 450k house. 150k mortgage required. All banks say NO.

It does not matter that I have 1 million inheritance on horizon. They don't care. They would prefer to lend 450k on a 500k house to a couple of 40k earners in their 20s. I know examples of this where there is no chance of long term repayment.

[wherebee]

5 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Mmr rules. I have 300k deposit. Want 450k house. 150k mortgage required. All banks say NO.

It does not matter that I have 1 million inheritance on horizon. They don't care. They would prefer to lend 450k on a 500k house to a couple of 40k earners in their 20s. I know examples of this where there is no chance of long term repayment.

Yup.

Same here in Oz for a credit card, even though I have a mortgage free property and wazoos of cash, the banks will not let me have a credit card.  It's a great example of how the system is set up to encourage debt taking on by those least able to afford it.

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Presumably you told the driver to fuck off out of the train cab and drove it there yourself at SpySpeed?

Spy in the cab with driver

"You don't want to do it like that"

This is actually how I imagine spy looking like

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Presumably you told the driver to fuck off out of the train cab and drove it there yourself at SpySpeed?

Fast train, non stops before Yawk is 2h. If the signalling is lucky then it can be 110min

York->Scabby is 50min

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Mmr rules. I have 300k deposit. Want 450k house. 150k mortgage required. All banks say NO.

It does not matter that I have 1 million inheritance on horizon. They don't care. They would prefer to lend 450k on a 500k house to a couple of 40k earners in their 20s. I know examples of this where there is no chance of long term repayment.

 

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

Yup.

Same here in Oz for a credit card, even though I have a mortgage free property and wazoos of cash, the banks will not let me have a credit card.  It's a great example of how the system is set up to encourage debt taking on by those least able to afford it.

2 x 40k earners is very rare. Normally its 40k + 20k - unless its a couple of public sector.

2 x 40k in 20s is very very rare.

Even @ 2 x 40k, theyd be pushing MMR limits at ~4.5 tops minus all recurring spending and discounting all current debt.

As far as much chance of repayment,MMR stipulates repayment mortgage. Unless you are on 100k+ you cannot get a IO mortgage.

As far as I can work out, and I get see the a few banks lending limits, is that 4x is pretty much tops for the bigger banks offering cheaper mortgages.

If you want a 150k mortgage then you need ~40k of income. MMR is that simple.

 

Dont know about Oz Banks are always willing to give debt to people with money.

 

 

 

[RJT1979]

My example of 2 x 40k also used htb and both were city workers. Accountants. Buying 1 hour outside London.

[Sasquatch]

20 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I am not a contractor. I run my own business.

Same here in terms of running our own business. We had to fill in loads of forms and spend an hour on the phone to Barclays but they gave us a £225K mortgage last month with no trouble. It's the market leading 1.49% 7 year fix. However the LTV is only circa 50% so perhaps that makes all the difference? 

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I am not a contractor. I run my own business.

 

37 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Same here in terms of running our own business. We had to fill in loads of forms and spend an hour on the phone to Barclays but they gave us a £225K mortgage last month with no trouble. It's the market leading 1.49% 7 year fix. However the LTV is only circa 50% so perhaps that makes all the difference? 

In which case it more specialist mortgage market.

Mortgages are becoming more n more standard. Banks are not interested in anything with a whiff of non standard lending.

It's tough buts ut tge result of the extra regulation since 2008.

[Sasquatch]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

In which case it more specialist mortgage market.

Mortgages are becoming more n more standard. Banks are not interested in anything with a whiff of non standard lending.

It's tough buts ut tge result of the extra regulation since 2008.

You are right about the old days. We self certified a large mortgage in 2006 and our business had only been up and running for 12 months. No accounts available but they still handed the money out like confetti.

[haroldshand]

On 05/03/2021 at 15:26, Hancock said:

Im still optimistic for a full on HPC, i just dont think it'll happen prior to September.

Several years ago I would have given the chances of a crash 80% plus happening, today I will give you 80% plus chance of not happening.

Mad thing is that the UK economy is far more f***** today than it was a decade ago and yet I feel this way

[No One]

7 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Several years ago I would have given the chances of a crash 80% plus happening, today I will give you 80% plus chance of not happening.

Mad thing is that the UK economy is far more f***** today than it was a decade ago and yet I feel this way

Lehman collapse didn't crash it

Brexit didn't crash it

Covid didn't crash it

The government is always there to prop it. Only a sterling crisis can crash it now.