Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I agree with most of that but the biggest land lord friendly thing all of the parties do is high levels of immigration.

The native British birth rate has been below 2 since the 80s, so property prices have been driven by immigration.

Stop immigration (at least keep it below 20k) and a lot of leveraged land lords would go under.

There might even be, dare I say it out loud, real price discovery!

And cut down the £30bln landlord subsidy aka housing benefit.

[eek]

38 minutes ago, Hancock said:

OK if landlord buys it, splits it into 4 properties ... and then 4 people from outside of Cornwall wish to rent/buy he will do so.

To suggest the British BTL is the solution is ridiculous.

Like i say deregulate planning then these locals will be able to afford to buy a house with wages, not rent off some parasitic cunt .... or build council houses for the locals.

 

This was your original argument

Too add what do you think happens when a landlords sells a house, is it left empty with cobwebs growing and tumbleweed rolling out front ... as if sold to an owner occupier it means 1 less house to rent and 1 less family looking to rent. 

My point was and is that while nationally that's the case on a local basis your argument is completely invalid.

Edited March 11, 2021 by eek

[moneyscam]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Unfriendly legislation against landlords, what unfriendly legislation is that?

You mean trying to prevent them kicking out tenants whenever they feel? Levelling up tax breaks?

ZIRP, Funding for Lending, Term Funding Scheme and QE giving them cheap loans, Help to Buy 1,2,3 and now 4 pushing up the price of their investment that would have bankrupted them if capitalism was allowed to run its course ... doesn't seem very unfriendly to me

Allowing them to split 3 bed semi detached houses into 4 fucken flats like i've shown above? 

As for rents going up if landlords sell up, that is complete and utter bollocks only spouted by the dimmest of landlords.

Landlords aren't some benevolent bunch who keep rents as low as they can. They charge the absolute maximum the rigged market can take. If they were going to keep rents low then surely they would have done that in 2009 when interest rates fell to the floor.

If landlords picking up houses to rent out is so good for low rental prices, why haven't rents fallen through the floor in the last 25 year when the number of BTL has gone from next to nothing into the millions. 

Too add what do you think happens when a landlords sells a house, is it left empty with cobwebs growing and tumbleweed rolling out front ... as if sold to an owner occupier it means 1 less house to rent and 1 less family looking to rent. 

 

 

I'm merely stating that what we are seeing is a reversal of the policy the govt chose to implement when it decided to no longer allow councils to build social housing and outsourced it to the private sector with LL friendly legislation of AST's, S21's, MIRAS, liberalisation of credit, IO mortgages, HB etc. People will respond to the incentives given to them hence the rise of the LL sector / BTL since then. That this has begun to be reversed is a good thing as it was too skewed in the LL's favour.

As for the 1 to 1 exchange from renter to owner occupier, assuming that is always the case (in reality it won't be as some will go to other LL's and some renters will never be in a position to buy) and the local effects as some other have already posted, then you cannot ignore that there is new household formation from natural population growth / more single households/ increased life expectancy (currently projected by ONS to be 164K per year till 2028). Then there is net migration of 200K every year requiring another 83K new houses for an average household size of 2.4 That makes a net total of 247K new dwellings required per year. In 2019 170K new dwellings were built, the highest since 2011. Net new household formation currently outpaces new house building / conversion of offices and other buildings by 77K per year. Most of these new households will not be in a position to buy at their formation so will be forced to rent whilst supply is reducing from existing landlords who sold to that accumulated over the years mass of renters that couldn't buy previously. That demand that disappeared from the former renter now becoming an owner occupier is more than replaced by new household formation that can't buy.

As a result new demand for rental properties outpaces new supply causing rents to rise. This has been the experience of the last 30/40 years and existing and new LL's rightly or wrongly took advantage as a result. The archaic planning system is also too blame as much as govt housing policy and liberalisation of this so people can self-build easier would go some way to helping new supply catch up to new household formation. As would reduction in net migration which after Brexit the govt has no excuse anymore for not controlling it.

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, eek said:

This was your original argument

Too add what do you think happens when a landlords sells a house, is it left empty with cobwebs growing and tumbleweed rolling out front ... as if sold to an owner occupier it means 1 less house to rent and 1 less family looking to rent. 

My point was and is that while nationally that's the case on a local basis your argument is completely invalid.

And it is a valid statement, in response to what the pro landlord tossers wrote before.

How was i to know that at the time of writing, that half an hour later you'd come up with a specific claim about Cornwall?

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

I'm merely stating that what we are seeing is a reversal of the policy the govt chose to implement when it decided to no longer allow councils to build social housing and outsourced it to the private sector with LL friendly legislation of AST's, S21's, MIRAS, liberalisation of credit, IO mortgages, HB etc. People will respond to the incentives given to them hence the rise of the LL sector / BTL since then. That this has begun to be reversed is a good thing as it was too skewed in the LL's favour.

 

These landlord friendly policies are a disaster for anyone renting, and have pumped up house prices to never seen before levels. The last 25 years have taken the UK back to how i can only presume life was in the C19.

I've turned up a shit house and was turned away at the door for having the audacity to bring my baby with me, after going online i found this is relatively normal.

British landlords on the whole are parasitic cunts who need knocking the fuck out and their heads stamping on. They and corporate builders are the problem and will never be the solution. 

[Hancock]

It does seem to have been forgotten that the lending to BTL landlords (and liar loans) prior to 2008 was the predominant reason for the demise of the demutualised building societies, that has caused 2 decades of financial insanity.

I've no doubt that if this country wasn't in essence bankrupt in March 2020, due to what happened in the 2 decades prior then CV19 would barely have been noted, and life would have carried on as normal.

Landlords being the solution, my arse!

Edited March 11, 2021 by Hancock

[BWW]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

So there will be 1 more house to rent where that person comes from.

Maybe the new owner will split the house into 4 properties thanks to friendly landlord policy (as shown above), so there are now 3 extra properties to rent.

But the planning laws are shite for everyone. (except the corporations) Deregulation them, free the market so people can build where they like, then we will see there is no shortage of rental properties, as cheap land prices will mean houses built for owner occupiers. Not tosser would be landlords

This argument is 100% true when the dwelling sold was a 1 bed flat or even a 3 bed house rented to a family.

When it used to be a 5 tenants HMO which is sold to be turned into a family home for someone turning out sprogs in the traditional way moving up from a one or two bed flat, I see 4 extra homes needed. In that case the argument is thus 100% to 400% false.

There are plenty streets in London since forever but I think increasingly across the country where a single occupancy 3 bed house sits next to a 5 bed HMO with limited shared living space and the two are exactly the same size.

The planning barriers to what you describe happenning are only the beginning. Increasingly there are environmental and other regs [many exEU but now in seperate UK law unless abolished] that have to be satisfied to build.

I agree planning laws are too restrictive and building for yourself should be allowed but not anywhere and a total free for all is not the solution.

Example: do you want someone to build a carbuncle next to listed buildings which block views that bring tourists in? Do you want dumbasses to build on floodplains knowing that they'll scream for handouts [from you as a taxpayer] when the inevitable happens? Some control is needed but some limited ability to build your own house [perhaps once in a lifetime only] having bought suitable land that doesn't impact others is needed too.

[BWW]

24 minutes ago, Hancock said:

It does seem to have been forgotten that the lending to BTL landlords (and liar loans) prior to 2008 was the predominant reason for the demise of the demutualised building societies, that has caused 2 decades of financial insanity.

I've no doubt that if this country wasn't in essence bankrupt in March 2020, due to what happened in the 2 decades prior then CV19 would barely have been noted, and life would have carried on as normal.

Landlords being the solution, my arse!

I remember that as being a clamour by the owners [members] of the mutual expressed through the press for more handouts after they'd spent the last lot. It was the helicopter drop of the day.

[Disclosure: I'm just bitter because I didn't get any].

[moneyscam]

29 minutes ago, Hancock said:

These landlord friendly policies are a disaster for anyone renting, and have pumped up house prices to never seen before levels. The last 25 years have taken the UK back to how i can only presume life was in the C19.

I've turned up a shit house and was turned away at the door for having the audacity to bring my baby with me, after going online i found this is relatively normal.

British landlords on the whole are parasitic cunts who need knocking the fuck out and their heads stamping on. They and corporate builders are the problem and will never be the solution. 

I understand and appreciate your anger / resentment. I felt the same years ago until I decided my anger wasn't going to change the past nor affect current policymakers. I held my nose and bought in 2015 and since then I barely give it a thought and my mental wellbeing is much improved. The worry of 'shite I bought at the top' dwindles as the years go by. I hope you do sort something out soon because I know how it can grind you down and I had it easier as I didn't have sprogs in tow.

[No One]

3 hours ago, moneyscam said:

As a result new demand for rental properties outpaces new supply causing rents to rise. This has been the experience of the last 30/40 years and existing and new LL's rightly or wrongly took advantage as a result. The archaic planning system is also too blame as much as govt housing policy and liberalisation of this so people can self-build easier would go some way to helping new supply catch up to new household formation. As would reduction in net migration which after Brexit the govt has no excuse anymore for not controlling it.

this

[No One]

2 hours ago, BWW said:

I agree planning laws are too restrictive and building for yourself should be allowed but not anywhere and a total free for all is not the solution.

Example: do you want someone to build a carbuncle next to listed buildings which block views that bring tourists in? Do you want dumbasses to build on floodplains knowing that they'll scream for handouts [from you as a taxpayer] when the inevitable happens? Some control is needed but some limited ability to build your own house [perhaps once in a lifetime only] having bought suitable land that doesn't impact others is needed too.

Planning permissions are a massive grift operation by local councils (the most inept and corrupt and insignificant of all the branches of government). PP are awarded to big-building/Tory Donors firms that build slowly to keep the value of their land holdings high, and the value of the new builds they sell high.

They are oligarchs, and if it weren't for planning permission we would all have a home.

 

[No One]

2 hours ago, BWW said:

Example: do you want someone to build a carbuncle next to listed buildings which block views that bring tourists in? Do you want dumbasses to build on floodplains knowing that they'll scream for handouts [from you as a taxpayer] when the inevitable happens? Some control is needed but some limited ability to build your own house [perhaps once in a lifetime only] having bought suitable land that doesn't impact others is needed too.

yes, because the tourists can go fuck themselves, I'm a tax payer and I want a home because I'm worth it

[BWW]

2 hours ago, No One said:

yes, because the tourists can go fuck themselves, I'm a tax payer and I want a home because I'm worth it

Well yeah but probably the majority don't want you to build One Towers on college green. CPO on Piers Morgan's garden for the most hideous carbuncle towers on the other hand. Yeah, you've got my vote.

[Frank Hovis]

Journalist on Cornwall Live unable to find anywhere to rent and facing homelessness. Possessions in storage and has contacted Council about emergency housing.

 

This is the first time I have known a rental crisis and it's very bad.

 

And ironically coming at a time when the Cornish countryside is being smothered with huge estates of new build housing.

 

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwalls-rental-crisis-making-face-5133462

 

[HousePriceMania]

Scotland's housing market slump 'worst in UK'

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-56352692

[BWW]

49 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Scotland's housing market slump 'worst in UK'

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-56352692

Jesus, Hackney drop is huge. That was perhaps the hottest market in London. I am happy because I want to buy there but probably not [able to] for a couple years more.

Watching the market my observation is pimped housdes are still at obscene price levels and probably even on the up with usual EA silliness for overheated market. Flats are what is dropping but also houses needing a lot of work are much cheaper too. Flippers presumably nervous about the pimped houses joining the party.

On the other hand nearby markets in Islington and Haringey were pretty dead/dropping at glacial speed pre covid and are now much more active and some areas prices are on the up, again houses not flats.

[Hardhat]

 

45 minutes ago, BWW said:

Jesus, Hackney drop is huge. That was perhaps the hottest market in London. I am happy because I want to buy there but probably not [able to] for a couple years more.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/89184352#/

 

Reckon they'd accept a £400k discount? 

 

 

Edit: Then again... this actually seems discounted (I know it's still mad money)

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/103839248#/

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by Hardhat
add

[BWW]

+

16 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/89184352#/

 

Reckon they'd accept a £400k discount? 

 

 

Edit: Then again... this actually seems discounted (I know it's still mad money)

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/103839248#/

 

Second one, wonder how many of the 8 ASTs are in arrears and just saying nah not paying bro ... with earliest eviction for non payment currently estimated at 2022? [that assumes no more lockdowns and everything covid-wise going according to plan]. Not sure I'd give you 150k for it, never mind 1.5M horrid road and so can't imagine any personal use for it.

First one ... gorgeous. On since Nov so cash offer of 1.6M might get it IMO "Offers In Excess Of" just means deluded. I just need oilies and a bunch of other shares to quadruple and I'll do it.

Edited March 12, 2021 by BWW
ETA: The considerable discount requires considerable negotiation skill. Best eduction trip to Agra and try asnd get the real price on tourist tat from the hawkers. Fun game, alien to most Brits. Ultimate best price is only obtained after you walk away.

[Castlevania]

22 minutes ago, BWW said:

+

Second one, wonder how many of the 8 ASTs are in arrears and just saying nah not paying bro ... with earliest eviction for non payment currently estimated at 2022? [that assumes no more lockdowns and everything covid-wise going according to plan]. Not sure I'd give you 150k for it, never mind 1.5M horrid road and so can't imagine any personal use for it.

First one ... gorgeous. On since Nov so cash offer of 1.6M might get it IMO "Offers In Excess Of" just means deluded. I just need oilies and a bunch of other shares to quadruple and I'll do it.

The first one is a small 3 bed townhouse. It’s nice, but not £2m nice.

[AWW]

2 million quid to live in an admittedly nicely decorated terrace in Haggerston is... laughable. Despite recent improvements, it's still an utter shithole. You could have the same thing in Highgate, or Belsize Park, or pretty much anywhere away from the billionaires rows, for similar money.

[BWW]

31 minutes ago, AWW said:

2 million quid to live in an admittedly nicely decorated terrace in Haggerston is... laughable. Despite recent improvements, it's still an utter shithole. You could have the same thing in Highgate, or Belsize Park, or pretty much anywhere away from the billionaires rows, for similar money.

Unfortunately I am not alone in choosing Hackney over any of the IMO shitholes full of the arsehole holier than thou scummy 'rich' [middle class] you mention. Pays ya money takes ya choice [if you had that money - I don't]

Unfortunately inner N London is all becoming too much like Highgate etc. Hackney maybe last but changing fast [for the worse in my eyes]. The people who made it special can no longer afford to be there.

[AWW]

That happens everywhere. I moved to Brixton in the early 2000s and everyone thought I was mental. London has just sucked in too much money and got too big - if you want Hackney 20 years ago, you need to look at Edmondton or Wood Green.

[Calcutta]

Mate of mine builds apartments out of shipping containers in Nigeria. He's done alright with it so he came to England with the business model to have a go here. Knock up a load on a bit of waste ground and rent them out for peanuts to people who struggle to rent a house. 

He's 'friends' with all the local Labour people, obviously they love him as he's Nigerian, but his idea was shot down instantly. No ifs not buts the council will not let it happen. Every fucker who works for the council or the local government is a landlord. I did try and tell him but he was convinced all these Labour types were decent people. Lesson learned. 

[Hardhat]

6 hours ago, BWW said:

Unfortunately I am not alone in choosing Hackney over any of the IMO shitholes full of the arsehole holier than thou scummy 'rich' [middle class] you mention. Pays ya money takes ya choice [if you had that money - I don't]

Unfortunately inner N London is all becoming too much like Highgate etc. Hackney maybe last but changing fast [for the worse in my eyes]. The people who made it special can no longer afford to be there.

I love Hackney. It's a great place to live and so far (whilst renting) I've seen to reason to leave. Everything I want is on my doorstep. I used to live round the corner from the property above. Whilst not a super posh area, it is very far from being a shithole. Loads of great pubs, great local community. I personally haven't seen much evidence of the -18% fall and I watch the market round here pretty closely, but I would love a crash in local prices, even to 2010 levels. 

Still some good areas in N London - much of Crouch Hill, around Ally Pally, and even Barnet / Enfield. Also, in East the area around Blackhorse Road is smartening up quite quickly. As you say, pays ya money takes ya choice!

Edit: I do agree that a lot of the people who made it special are being priced out. Arguably they were already priced out 5 years ago and have been holding on for dear life ever since! But yes, it has changed very quickly and not for the better, just for the £££.

Edited March 12, 2021 by Hardhat
above

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Journalist on Cornwall Live unable to find anywhere to rent and facing homelessness. Possessions in storage and has contacted Council about emergency housing.

 

This is the first time I have known a rental crisis and it's very bad.

 

And ironically coming at a time when the Cornish countryside is being smothered with huge estates of new build housing.

 

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwalls-rental-crisis-making-face-5133462

 

The dumb money in btl is now chasing holiday lets.

They see Cornwall and think - Newquay.

HMRC were in process or sorting out the gaps  in tax/rates which allow fhls to fuck everything.

Then covid happened.

If locals weren't fucked off with fhls then they are now.

Expect gounging taxes on FHL.