Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Hancock]

10 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm confused. I hear some folk saying house prices will scream higher as a result of money printing, and others say they'll fall quite hard due to deflation.

I know who I want to be correct, but who actually is correct?

 

Im expecting a small correction, then prices to stagnate until interest rates rise.

Will need wage rises from here to get prices going up.

Ive been constantly wrong up until this point.

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Leicester prices doubled between 2002 and 2006.There after they've gone from £180k to £260k as per Nov last year.more likely a reasonable average about £230-£240k,on declining vol.The structural risks are huge fi you're leveraged and buying into Britain's inner cities like Londinium/Brimingham.Times are changing.

I've never worked out how the Haliwide measure gets house prices rising at the rate it does when reality is mmuch more mundane.

Easy.

They announce - 5% up.

Then revises their numbers down later, quietly.

Then they announce another 5% up, using the lowered number as a base.

 

 

[sancho panza]

December data in>londinium booming.No news of EA's starving yet but those flat fees msut be killing them

N2

NW3

SW15

SE1

SW3

NW1

[spygirl]

Imagine a fraction of the volume and the same up a bit down bit (no movement) for 16 years and thats my (and other northern areas) markets.

Halifax bollocks saying - Prices up 5%. Is bullshit.

They'll revise the numbers down in a few months.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

Imagine a fraction of the volume and the same up a bit down bit (no movement) for 16 years and thats my (and other northern areas) markets.

Halifax bollocks saying - Prices up 5%. Is bullshit.

They'll revise the numbers down in a few months.

Prices in Newcastle have been going through the roof in recent years.

Only places that havent seen prices rises since HTB and the scamdemic giveaway are generally shite.

 

[With a crooked smile]

On 09/04/2021 at 17:58, Hancock said:

Prices in Newcastle have been going through the roof in recent years.

Only places that havent seen prices rises since HTB and the scamdemic giveaway are generally shite.

 

Id say Keswick in The Lakes hadn't moved much for years until the last 12 months. Now it seems like a house that would have gone on Land Registry for 330k will go on Rightmove for probably 450-475k and it will be SSTC in 2 days to 2 weeks. BUT then it just sits SSTC I'm not really seeing anything going through to LR. It does make me wonder if things will start to fall appart as Stamp Duty holiday extension ends. Very difficult to predict tho. Right now at this stage in the game nothing would supprise me. 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Id say Keswick in The Lakes hadn't moved much for years until the last 12 months. Now it seems like a house that would have gone on Land Registry for 330k will go on Rightmove for probably 450-475k and it will be SSTC in 2 days to 2 weeks. BUT then it just sits SSTC I'm not really seeing anything going through to LR. It does make me wonder if things will start to fall appart as Stamp Duty holiday extension ends. Very difficult to predict tho. Right now at this stage in the game nothing would supprise me. 

Just takes a while to go to the LR, agents just seem to leave them SSTC for long after they've been sold.

[With a crooked smile]

Sure I understand its 3 months after the sale for an update to be seem on LR but I'm referring to stuff that 'sold' Sept, Oct, Nov last year. Each month we get 2 or 3 houses added to LR interestingly none of what I'm seeing seems to be anywhere near the prices I've seen on RM. 

Edited April 11, 2021 by With a crooked smile
Spelling

[Hancock]

6 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Sure I understand its 3 months after the sale for an update to be seem on LR but I'm referring to stuff that 'sold' Sept, Oct, Nov last year. Each month we get 2 or 3 houses added to LR interestingly none of what I'm seeing seems to be anywhere near the prices I've seen on RM. 

All seems perfectly normal for houses sold in September not to be on the LR.

[sancho panza]

On 11/04/2021 at 17:20, With a crooked smile said:

Sure I understand its 3 months after the sale for an update to be seem on LR but I'm referring to stuff that 'sold' Sept, Oct, Nov last year. Each month we get 2 or 3 houses added to LR interestingly none of what I'm seeing seems to be anywhere near the prices I've seen on RM. 

iirc roughly about 50% of sales get registered in the first month,another roughly 25% in month two,bulk of the rest in third monthpost sale and then a few really late additons.

variety of reasons for delays mainly related to sols being a bit tardy.

 

WHich hosue price data site are you using?

https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ppd

 

[With a crooked smile]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

iirc roughly about 50% of sales get registered in the first month,another roughly 25% in month two,bulk of the rest in third monthpost sale and then a few really late additons.

variety of reasons for delays mainly related to sols being a bit tardy.

 

WHich hosue price data site are you using?

https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ppd

 

I use Rightmove and Zoopla sold prices, I've taken into my account that a house sale takes around 2-3 months to complete and then 3 months to appear on LR. I never pay for LR results of residential property but I've paid for a few commercial property entries as I'm currently in the process of buying a commercial property to run a business from. We won't be homeowners for a while yet. 

[leonardratso]

i thought cash purchases didnt even need to report to land registry?

[sleepwello'nights]

On 04/04/2021 at 11:53, Hancock said:

 

Ive cash to buy and if i leave it another 12 months think i will get a house for maybe 20% less than local market asking prices. Not that i see prices falling 20% in this timeframe but merely on the basis i only need to buy 1 house and i've cash to buy the occasional cheap house that comes onto the market.

 

Given the very low, well derisory, interest on cash deposits wouldn't the saving over renting make it better to buy a house? 

Sure there is a risk of a fall in house prices, just as there is a risk of a bail in or confiscation of cash. Whatever weighting you place on the likelihood of either. Even shares or bonds carry risk. A house you own fulfils a basic necessity regardless of its nominal value. Its nominal value is only relevant when you want to sell for whatever reason.

The equation changes if you need to borrow to buy, or future plans to change where you want to live. 

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Given the very low, well derisory, interest on cash deposits wouldn't the saving over renting make it better to buy a house? 

Sure there is a risk of a fall in house prices, just as there is a risk of a bail in or confiscation of cash. Whatever weighting you place on the likelihood of either. Even shares or bonds carry risk. A house you own fulfils a basic necessity regardless of its nominal value. Its nominal value is only relevant when you want to sell for whatever reason.

The equation changes if you need to borrow to buy, or future plans to change where you want to live. 

 

If i was going to stay in Yorkshire then buying would have been the right choice several years ago, but i've constantly been 6 month/1 year from intending to move .. but due to matters out of my hands i've been prevented from moving until recently.

 

Was watching Max Keiser this morning and he shows a newspaper headline claiming OZ property prices are up 18% in the last year.

Unreal!

Edited April 13, 2021 by Hancock

[Hancock]

Ive a search for all property coming up for auction in Hants/Dorset.

This plot of land is listed at £225,000 ... no idea if it could go for more
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/property-90621409.html

But in 2000, you could buy a 5 bed house in the same street for £189,000
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=81041711&sale=27985059&country=england

Who needs to work for a better life when you can just get planning permission for that bit of what once was wasteland that you own!

 

 

 

[sleepwello'nights]

24 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive a search for all property coming up for auction in Hants/Dorset.

This plot of land is listed at £225,000 ... no idea if it could go for more
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/property-90621409.html

But in 2000, you could buy a 5 bed house in the same street for £189,000
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=81041711&sale=27985059&country=england

Who needs to work for a better life when you can just get planning permission for that bit of what once was wasteland that you own!

 

 

 

The agent is advertising another plot nearby with a guide price of £65k. No planning yet. With planning price will increase substantially.

 

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The agent is advertising another plot nearby with a guide price of £65k. No planning yet. With planning price will increase substantially.

 

Its mental that a piece of paper can award such a life changing sum of money; leaves things wide open to corruption.

Shows how fucked up the planning laws are in this country, but obviously they're fantastic for the landowners!

The fact it hasnt got planning permission tells me it won't ... landowner will be savvy enough to know that filling out a few forms could make them several hundred thousand pound more.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/property-90617461.html

Edited April 13, 2021 by Hancock

[Frank Hovis]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Its mental that a piece of paper can award such a life changing sum of money; leaves things wide open to corruption.

Shows how fucked up the planning laws are in this country, but obviously they're fantastic for the landowners!

The fact it hasnt got planning permission tells me it won't ... landowner will be savvy enough to know that filling out a few forms could make them several hundred thousand pound more.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/property-90617461.html

Whenever the subject has come up I have suggested that there should be a charge for planning permission equivalent to 90% of the increase in value resulting from it.

Nobody has heard that suggestion before and they have difficulty processing it.

[Hancock]

56 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Whenever the subject has come up I have suggested that there should be a charge for planning permission equivalent to 90% of the increase in value resulting from it.

Nobody has heard that suggestion before and they have difficulty processing it.

My solution is to presume building is allowed almost everywhere, and its the govt/councils job to stop you.

Have designated land for farming and wildlife but almost everywhere else is fair game.

Greenbelt is for wankers.

Those picture postcard quaint villages that people salivate over were built prior to the current socialist for landowner planning laws.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Hancock

[Frank Hovis]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

My solution is to presume building is allowed almost everywhere.

Have designated land for farming and wildlife but almost everywhere else is fair game.

Greenbelt is for wankers.

 

And how is that going to end up with current levels of immigration?

Towns will keep growing with new housing estates until they merge into the surrounding expanding towns and you end up with the whole of SE England resembling an even bigger version of Bombay with houses to the horizon.

[eek]

2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

And how is that going to end up with current levels of immigration?

Towns will keep growing with new housing estates until they merge into the surrounding expanding towns and you end up with the whole of SE England resembling an even bigger version of Bombay with houses to the horizon.

As I don't live in the SE that doesn't sound like a problem. 

[Don Coglione]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

iirc roughly about 50% of sales get registered in the first month,another roughly 25% in month two,bulk of the rest in third monthpost sale and then a few really late additons.

variety of reasons for delays mainly related to sols being a bit tardy.

 

WHich hosue price data site are you using?

https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ppd

 

The property we sold in March 2020 still does not appear on Land Registry records.

Perhaps I should reclaim it from the new "owners"?!

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

And how is that going to end up with current levels of immigration?

Towns will keep growing with new housing estates until they merge into the surrounding expanding towns and you end up with the whole of SE England resembling an even bigger version of Bombay with houses to the horizon.

You exaggerate. But if so then so be it.

You are either for a continuation of British feudalism or against it.

Most people cannot afford to house the families with the system thats gone back a 1000 years, but these nostalgic claims of your are why it will continue for many more 1000s of years.

 

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

Its mental that a piece of paper can award such a life changing sum of money; leaves things wide open to corruption.

Shows how fucked up the planning laws are in this country, but obviously they're fantastic for the landowners!

The fact it hasnt got planning permission tells me it won't ... landowner will be savvy enough to know that filling out a few forms could make them several hundred thousand pound more.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/property-90617461.html

You can apply for planning permission even if you don't own the land. That's a useful way to discover whether planning permission is likely to be granted. The listing mentions an electricity sub-station so it could be a utility company selling it. 

Planning permission is always easier to obtain if you can get someone from the planning committee on your side, or better still become a member. Takes a bit of long term planning (sorry about the pun) but a useful strategy. 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

You can apply for planning permission even if you don't own the land. That's a useful way to discover whether planning permission is likely to be granted. The listing mentions an electricity sub-station so it could be a utility company selling it. 

Planning permission is always easier to obtain if you can get someone from the planning committee on your side, or better still become a member. Takes a bit of long term planning (sorry about the pun) but a useful strategy. 

Yes im finding out about a council owned plot near to where i live, which ive only recently found on my dog walks. I dont intend living there but if i can get it for the right price a house built on such a plot could easily go for over 300k.

Theyre going to get back to me about whether they can sell it, at which point i'll put in an application, as it'd more than likely have to go to the open market.

I think the kind of bribe they'd openly take is a well part job with the large developers, but as i'd not employ a council worker, i'd prefer to go for the torture approach as a way of persuasion!