Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, No One said:

The government is always there to prop it. Only a sterling crisis can crash it now.

I imagine the UK is easier pickings now than what it was when George 'the Dalek' Soros made his money on Black Monday in 1992.

[No One]

 

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, No One said:

Lehman collapse didn't crash it

Brexit didn't crash it

Covid didn't crash it

The government is always there to prop it. Only a sterling crisis can crash it now.

I seem to remember someone here stating that the US 30Y is the indicator for the UK housing market.

I'd like to see it keep rising...

[Hancock]

42 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Several years ago I would have given the chances of a crash 80% plus happening, today I will give you 80% plus chance of not happening.

Mad thing is that the UK economy is far more f***** today than it was a decade ago and yet I feel this way

Will see soon.

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Will see soon.

I've seen a 80% crash in the last year ... assuming your savings are in the right currency of course 

Seriously though, nominal crash very unlikely in the near term I think, they will debase £ first.

Edited March 9, 2021 by goldbug9999

[Hancock]

8 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

I've seen a 80% crash in the last year ... assuming your savings are in the right currency of course 

Seriously though, nominal crash very unlikely in the near term I think, they will debase £ first.

That'll be the £ that has almost got back to where it was prior to Brexit.

They trashed the pound in 2008 and house prices fell.

With mass unemployment kicking in soon, SDLT holiday removed then we will see .. not much further down the line will be interest rates rising once the last 12 months worth of money starts circulating and inflation kicks in.

[Frank Hovis]

More rental woes in Cornwall; and they have interviewed somebody who clearly knows his stuff:

Reasons for lack of supply and spike in demand and prices:

• People moving down from cities - up to a third of enquiries
• People not vacating because of Covid protection from eviction
• BTL landlords exiting the market and their houses being bought by people who aren't renting them out

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-estate-agent-says-up-5102280

Nightmare.  I know a young couple who have just come back from living in a van in Portugal.  They're not hippies as both work but they can't find anywhere to rent in a coastal town here.  Just two years ago it would not have been a problem.

It doesn't look like it's going to get better any time soon even if house prices fall as seems to be expected.

@Wight Flight this is going to be paralleled on your island.

[Wight Flight]

27 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

More rental woes in Cornwall; and they have interviewed somebody who clearly knows his stuff:

Reasons for lack of supply and spike in demand and prices:

• People moving down from cities - up to a third of enquiries
• People not vacating because of Covid protection from eviction
• BTL landlords exiting the market and their houses being bought by people who aren't renting them out

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-estate-agent-says-up-5102280

Nightmare.  I know a young couple who have just come back from living in a van in Portugal.  They're not hippies as both work but they can't find anywhere to rent in a coastal town here.  Just two years ago it would not have been a problem.

It doesn't look like it's going to get better any time soon even if house prices fall as seems to be expected.

@Wight Flight this is going to be paralleled on your island.

Already a major problem down here, but not yet being picked up in the media.

There is a facebook properties to rent group - some really harrowing tales of homeless families on there. Nearly every post is someone looking for a home as the landlord has sold. Probably a ratio of 50 looking for every advert of one for rent.

And if you have a pet, forget it. Either put the animal down or leave the Island. You won't find a home to rent.

Very sad.

The other thing I have noticed is price squeezing. The top end hasn't gone up that much (maybe 25-30%), but what I was paying for a four bed sea view place in a posh part of the island will now get you a three bed mid terrace ex-council house. in a dubious area.

Just hope I can stay where I am until this all changes back to normal.

[spygirl]

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/commentary-mortgage-lending-statistics-q4-2020

The numbers for 2020 are not good.

And theyve only achieved that by pulling forward a lot of business from 2021.

 

[Noallegiance]

Can't see the problem myself. Just sell Grandma and buy this. It'll be over £1m next year innit...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/103883984#/

 

 

Edited March 10, 2021 by Noallegiance

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Can't see the problem myself. Just sell Grandma and buy this. It'll be over £1m next year innit...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/103883984#/

 

 

Around £10,000 per m2. So the average paid man would have to work all year and pay no tax for 3 m2!

[Noallegiance]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

Around £10,000 per m2. So the average paid man would have to work all year and pay no tax for 3 m2!

It's essentially a two-up, two-down for three-quarters-of-a-million.

Fucking bonkers.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

It's essentially a two-up, two-down for three-quarters-of-a-million.

Fucking bonkers.

These savvy sellers are on the ball, it didn't sell by August 2020 for £300,000

As quite obviously buyers were waiting to pay £340,000 .... its fucken obvious when you think about it. 

[BWW]

On 10/03/2021 at 10:07, Frank Hovis said:

More rental woes in Cornwall; and they have interviewed somebody who clearly knows his stuff:

Reasons for lack of supply and spike in demand and prices:

• People moving down from cities - up to a third of enquiries
• People not vacating because of Covid protection from eviction
• BTL landlords exiting the market and their houses being bought by people who aren't renting them out

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-estate-agent-says-up-5102280

Nightmare.  I know a young couple who have just come back from living in a van in Portugal.  They're not hippies as both work but they can't find anywhere to rent in a coastal town here.  Just two years ago it would not have been a problem.

It doesn't look like it's going to get better any time soon even if house prices fall as seems to be expected.

@Wight Flight this is going to be paralleled on your island.

Interesting article and interesting that anyone from an HPC [anti-LL] background would describe those views as someone who knows his stuff.

“On the whole, individual landlords are more caring about the properties they own and the tenants living inside them and if this continues, particularly with the potential increase of capitals gains tax in coming years, we will lose a lot of good landlords."

“The Government have made enemies of small-time property investors by making renting a property legislatively heavy and taxation punitive,”

“The Government are working against the rental market, with the legislation and taxation becoming so heavy that the small-time investors are asking themselves if it’s worth it. Landlords can no longer rent out properties in the lowest two energy efficiency groups, which while I understand the intention behind it, means that if a landlord has rented out an older property, for example to a tenant for a number of years, they are no longer able to do that and have to sell up meaning that landlords are now thinking about exiting the market rather than continuing.”

 

Also, is this true? ....

"The current coronavirus rules mean that some people can come down to buy but some can’t as you’re only allowed to travel elsewhere for a viewing if you’ve already sold your house."

 

[BWW]

I know someone who currently lives alone in a building which could easily be 4 dwellings and probably rent fast. Basically due to various regs mentioned. EPC upgrades means cost. CV-no-eviction-rule even for non-payment or extreme-ASBO-twattishness plus the mess of a one year ++ wait if we ever exit the self imposed horrific mess makes LLing unattractive [understatement].

It all means they could spend money, rent them out then get nowt beyond the first rent and 1 month max legal deposit which wouldn't even cover costs never mind give any compensation for hassle. They are planning holiday lets which in addition to all the above gov-created issues have tax perks making them far less taxed than a rental for families.

Some would probably condemn this but it's gov they should be condemning not ordinary decent folk responding to laws passed.

The impossibility of determining who will behave even reasonably never mind nicely or as someone you'd want living nearby from a viewing / short meeting combines with these nightmare-tenant protecting actions of gov to result in some simply choosing to withdraw property that would otherwise be made available.

The vast majority of well behaving tenants really need to be campaigning to have the rotten apples treated as they deserve to be. On HPC in particular it has always been so that any LL-damaging measure is cheered on regardless of the extent to which it allows scumbags to abuse the rules and screw up the system even more for everyone. I'll not hold my breath for that to happen though. Whole thing just makes me sad.

[moneyscam]

10 minutes ago, BWW said:

Interesting article and interesting that anyone from an HPC [anti-LL] background would describe those views as someone who knows his stuff.

“On the whole, individual landlords are more caring about the properties they own and the tenants living inside them and if this continues, particularly with the potential increase of capitals gains tax in coming years, we will lose a lot of good landlords."

“The Government have made enemies of small-time property investors by making renting a property legislatively heavy and taxation punitive,”

“The Government are working against the rental market, with the legislation and taxation becoming so heavy that the small-time investors are asking themselves if it’s worth it. Landlords can no longer rent out properties in the lowest two energy efficiency groups, which while I understand the intention behind it, means that if a landlord has rented out an older property, for example to a tenant for a number of years, they are no longer able to do that and have to sell up meaning that landlords are now thinking about exiting the market rather than continuing.”

 

Also, is this true? ....

"The current coronavirus rules mean that some people can come down to buy but some can’t as you’re only allowed to travel elsewhere for a viewing if you’ve already sold your house."

 

In my recent selling experience that's bollocks. Had loads of people who hadn't sold their home come and view mine. Fortunately the best offer I received was from FTB's currently renting in London.

I asked my estate agent if they were busy and where are the buyers coming from. She said much busier than usual and that most of the buyers were people relocating from London (I'm in Kent). She was smart enough to bemoan the lack of FTB's though realising that eventually this wave of Covid relocators will dissipate eventually.

[Frank Hovis]

26 minutes ago, BWW said:

Interesting article and interesting that anyone from an HPC [anti-LL] background would describe those views as someone who knows his stuff.

“On the whole, individual landlords are more caring about the properties they own and the tenants living inside them and if this continues, particularly with the potential increase of capitals gains tax in coming years, we will lose a lot of good landlords."

“The Government have made enemies of small-time property investors by making renting a property legislatively heavy and taxation punitive,”

“The Government are working against the rental market, with the legislation and taxation becoming so heavy that the small-time investors are asking themselves if it’s worth it. Landlords can no longer rent out properties in the lowest two energy efficiency groups, which while I understand the intention behind it, means that if a landlord has rented out an older property, for example to a tenant for a number of years, they are no longer able to do that and have to sell up meaning that landlords are now thinking about exiting the market rather than continuing.”

 

Also, is this true? ....

"The current coronavirus rules mean that some people can come down to buy but some can’t as you’re only allowed to travel elsewhere for a viewing if you’ve already sold your house."

 

Alright; knew his stuff with regard to the bits I actually cited about why there is a very high demand for rental property at present.

I didn't read on to the rest of it as it wasn't why I opened the article because vested interests will always speak accordingly.

[moneyscam]

4 minutes ago, BWW said:

I know someone who currently lives alone in a building which could easily be 4 dwellings and probably rent fast. Basically due to various regs mentioned. EPC upgrades means cost. CV-no-eviction-rule even for non-payment or extreme-ASBO-twattishness plus the mess of a one year ++ wait if we ever exit the self imposed horrific mess makes LLing unattractive [understatement].

It all means they could spend money, rent them out then get nowt beyond the first rent and 1 month max legal deposit which wouldn't even cover costs never mind give any compensation for hassle. They are planning holiday lets which in addition to all the above gov-created issues have tax perks making them far less taxed than a rental for families.

Some would probably condemn this but it's gov they should be condemning not ordinary decent folk responding to laws passed.

The impossibility of determining who will behave even reasonably never mind nicely or as someone you'd want living nearby from a viewing / short meeting combines with these nightmare-tenant protecting actions of gov to result in some simply choosing to withdraw property that would otherwise be made available.

The vast majority of well behaving tenants really need to be campaigning to have the rotten apples treated as they deserve to be. On HPC in particular it has always been so that any LL-damaging measure is cheered on regardless of the extent to which it allows scumbags to abuse the rules and screw up the system even more for everyone. I'll not hold my breath for that to happen though. Whole thing just makes me sad.

If I wanted to I could have rented out the gaff I'm currently selling as a 5 bed HMO and pull in 1.3K (1.9K net as they would be repaying the capital element of the mortgage) after expenses (mortg, bills etc.). I'm not inclined to be a LL but if I was I would say fuck that with all the attendant risks you have outlined above.

The tossers on TOS also don't realise that the net result of the unfriendly legislation against LL's is that many will sell up, supply goes down and rents will rise. Those already struggling to find a place to rent or saving for a deposit will struggle more. Of course some FTB's will be the eventual purchasers of some of these properties but that will end once the clearing out of these LL's has run its course.

I can't stand the people on TOS currently. They rail against 'speculators' but in essence they are the flipside of the same coin. They are like someone who has purchased a very very long dated put option on significantly lower prices but find they are constantly out of the money and they are getting murdered by theta (time decay of the option). No wonder they are so bitter. 

[No One]

6 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

If I wanted to I could have rented out the gaff I'm currently selling as a 5 bed HMO and pull in 1.3K (1.9K net as they would be repaying the capital element of the mortgage) after expenses (mortg, bills etc.). I'm not inclined to be a LL but if I was I would say fuck that with all the attendant risks you have outlined above.

The tossers on TOS also don't realise that the net result of the unfriendly legislation against LL's is that many will sell up, supply goes down and rents will rise. Those already struggling to find a place to rent or saving for a deposit will struggle more. Of course some FTB's will be the eventual purchasers of some of these properties but that will end once the clearing out of these LL's has run its course.

I can't stand the people on TOS currently. They rail against 'speculators' but in essence they are the flipside of the same coin. They are like someone who has purchased a very very long dated put option on significantly lower prices but find they are constantly out of the money and they are getting murdered by theta (time decay of the option). No wonder they are so bitter. 

HERRETIC !

Just joking lol. Yeah they would pounce on you and call you all sorts, troll, LL, Estate agent etc and whilst I agree many of the aforementioned are utter cunts, they are necessary in a way.

I would like to live in the world of 3.5x income mortgages and no foreign shell companies (HK) owning UK residential but that's not the world we live in.

EPC rating measures are good though.

Right now, I'm working very hard in trying to scrape a deposit together and yolo-ing it into stonks, hoping divis and speculation protects me from the stimi-money, but some here are banking now on another pop. The way I see it if there is a pop, HPI will end regardless of how many sinks the gov want's to throw at the market. What is certain is that I don't want to rent ever again.

 

[Hancock]

52 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

The tossers on TOS also don't realise that the net result of the unfriendly legislation against LL's is that many will sell up, supply goes down and rents will rise. Those already struggling to find a place to rent or saving for a deposit will struggle more. Of course some FTB's will be the eventual purchasers of some of these properties but that will end once the clearing out of these LL's has run its course.

Unfriendly legislation against landlords, what unfriendly legislation is that?

You mean trying to prevent them kicking out tenants whenever they feel? Levelling up tax breaks?

ZIRP, Funding for Lending, Term Funding Scheme and QE giving them cheap loans, Help to Buy 1,2,3 and now 4 pushing up the price of their investment that would have bankrupted them if capitalism was allowed to run its course ... doesn't seem very unfriendly to me

Allowing them to split 3 bed semi detached houses into 4 fucken flats like i've shown above? 

As for rents going up if landlords sell up, that is complete and utter bollocks only spouted by the dimmest of landlords.

Landlords aren't some benevolent bunch who keep rents as low as they can. They charge the absolute maximum the rigged market can take. If they were going to keep rents low then surely they would have done that in 2009 when interest rates fell to the floor.

If landlords picking up houses to rent out is so good for low rental prices, why haven't rents fallen through the floor in the last 25 year when the number of BTL has gone from next to nothing into the millions. 

Too add what do you think happens when a landlords sells a house, is it left empty with cobwebs growing and tumbleweed rolling out front ... as if sold to an owner occupier it means 1 less house to rent and 1 less family looking to rent. 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by Hancock

[eek]

23 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Too add what do you think happens when a landlords sells a house, is it left empty with cobwebs growing and tumbleweed rolling out front ... as if sold to an owner occupier it means 1 less house to rent and 1 less family looking to rent. 

The issue in Cornwall is that it's not 1 house sold to a previous renter who becomes an owner occupier, it's one house sold to a newcomer to the area.

So the market remains in equilibrium argument doesn't work - it really is supply drops by 1 house but demand remains the same. 

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, eek said:

The issue in Cornwall is that it's not 1 house sold to a previous renter who becomes an owner occupier, it's one house sold to a newcomer to the area.

So the market remains in equilibrium argument doesn't work - it really is supply drops by 1 house but demand remains the same. 

So there will be 1 more house to rent where that person comes from.

Maybe the new owner will split the house into 4 properties thanks to friendly landlord policy (as shown above), so there are now 3 extra properties to rent.

But the planning laws are shite for everyone. (except the corporations) Deregulation them, free the market so people can build where they like, then we will see there is no shortage of rental properties, as cheap land prices will mean houses built for owner occupiers. Not tosser would be landlords

[eek]

Just now, Hancock said:

So there will be 1 more house to rent where that person comes from.

Maybe the new owner will split the house into 4 properties thanks to friendly landlord policy (as shown above), so there are now 3 extra properties to rent.

But the planning laws are shite for everyone. (except the corporations) Deregulation them, free the market so people can build where they like, then we will see there is no shortage of rental properties, as cheap land prices will mean houses built for owner occupiers. Not tosser would be landlords

But not in cornwall where that person has moved to.

The fact there may be an ex-council flat available in Croydon doesn't help if you live and work and all your family is in Truro. 

Markets can be local as well as national - and this is a local problem in a lot of popular areas where it's pretty and wages are low. 

[reformed nice guy]

38 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Unfriendly legislation against landlords, what unfriendly legislation is that?

You mean trying to prevent them kicking out tenants whenever they feel? Levelling up tax breaks?

ZIRP, Funding for Lending, Term Funding Scheme and QE giving them cheap loans, Help to Buy 1,2,3 and now 4 pushing up the price of their investment that would have bankrupted them if capitalism was allowed to run its course ... doesn't seem very unfriendly to me

Allowing them to split 3 bed semi detached houses into 4 fucken flats like i've shown above? 

As for rents going up if landlords sell up, that is complete and utter bollocks only spouted by the dimmest of landlords.

Landlords aren't some benevolent bunch who keep rents as low as they can. They charge the absolute maximum the rigged market can take. If they were going to keep rents low then surely they would have done that in 2009 when interest rates fell to the floor.

If landlords picking up houses to rent out is so good for low rental prices, why haven't rents fallen through the floor in the last 25 year when the number of BTL has gone from next to nothing into the millions. 

Too add what do you think happens when a landlords sells a house, is it left empty with cobwebs growing and tumbleweed rolling out front ... as if sold to an owner occupier it means 1 less house to rent and 1 less family looking to rent. 

 

 

I agree with most of that but the biggest land lord friendly thing all of the parties do is high levels of immigration.

The native British birth rate has been below 2 since the 80s, so property prices have been driven by immigration.

Stop immigration (at least keep it below 20k) and a lot of leveraged land lords would go under.

There might even be, dare I say it out loud, real price discovery!

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, eek said:

But not in cornwall where that person has moved to.

The fact there may be an ex-council flat available in Croydon doesn't help if you live and work and all your family is in Truro. 

Markets can be local as well as national - and this is a local problem in a lot of popular areas where it's pretty and wages are low. 

OK if landlord buys it, splits it into 4 properties ... and then 4 people from outside of Cornwall wish to rent/buy he will do so.

To suggest the British BTL is the solution is ridiculous.

Like i say deregulate planning then these locals will be able to afford to buy a house with wages, not rent off some parasitic cunt .... or build council houses for the locals.

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by Hancock