Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Dave Bloke]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

That site, overlooking yes the coast but also a train track before the coast, has planning permission for a 1750 sqft house on it.

There's a 1900 sqft townhouse on sale in Belfast at the moment for £260K.

£220K + build your own house vs a bigger house already built at £260K....

Yes, doesn't make any sense. Are there enough dreamers (aka mugs) around to buy these crazy projects?

[JoeDavola]

Just now, Dave Bloke said:

Yes, doesn't make any sense. Are there enough dreamers (aka mugs) around to buy these crazy projects?

You get the odd person who has inherited a few hundred K or made out like a bandit via HPI and public sector redundancies and the like who might just throw a fortune at it - but it's a very long shot. I'm gonna keep an eye on that site and see if it sells, think it'll be a difficult one to sell.

There's a bungalow for sale in the same town (i.e. one that actually fucking exists) for the same price as that site is.

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

You get the odd person who has inherited a few hundred K or made out like a bandit via HPI and public sector redundancies and the like who might just throw a fortune at it - but it's a very long shot. I'm gonna keep an eye on that site and see if it sells, think it'll be a difficult one to sell.

There's a bungalow for sale in the same town (i.e. one that actually fucking exists) for the same price as that site is.

yeah but joe, think how many caravans you could get on that site, or build a 40 story block of shanty town flats, yer ma and pa can have the penthouse.

[ste]

Quote

Full story: Hunt to meet mortgage lenders later this week

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said he will meet lenders later this week to ask what help they can give to borrowers struggling with their mortgage, PA Media reports.

They keep denying it, but in repeating the denials and asking the question repeatedly is lubing everyone up for a support scheme in my opinion.

There will be a stalemate in the housing market where those that can will simply hold off and transaction volumes will collapse waiting for government support.

Tories are out anyway so it'll be an open goal for Labour to promise something and drag the Tories with them in coming up with some nonsense scheme.

[Axeman123]

Just now, ste said:

Tories are out anyway so it'll be an open goal for Labour to promise something and drag the Tories with them in coming up with some nonsense scheme.

Alternate take: there isn't fiscal headroom for a scheme, and both partys will have had various come-to-jesus meetings with the treasury and assorted lizard people. The Tories incentive is to keep hope alive while doing nothing, hope that:

2 minutes ago, ste said:

There will be a stalemate in the housing market where those that can will simply hold off and transaction volumes will collapse waiting for government support.

..meaning that the worst of it will come down after the next election on Labours watch. They only have to stall for ~12 months, and then they can start campaigning to lose the election while promising the biggest mortgage support scheme imaginable in the next parliament. Labour then have to either match them, but have the headache of not actully delivering, or do it for real and face bond market melt-down. Alternately Labour could gamble on saying it would be unaffordable, but what are the chances. In either case Torys get to talk about Labour trashing the economy and/or housing market for decades.

[tlc]

15 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Are they accepting of drops or is there a lot of resistance?

I'm selling my dads house at the moment.

South Manchester

I wanted to put it on the market around 400-425k 8 months ago. Siblings chose a spiv Yopa estae agent who hugly overvulued it saying it's worth 500-550 k.

I managed to pursude them to put it on lower at 485K.

Reduced to 430K still no interest. Large 1930s 4 bed detached needing extensive refrub.

Siblings still resisitant to drops.

Taken off the market to be marketed with new agent who advised overs 400K which sibs rejected 

Edited June 20, 2023 by tlc

[CVG]

20 minutes ago, tlc said:

I'm selling my dads house at the moment.

South Manchester

I wanted to put it on the market around 400-425k 8 months ago. Siblings chose a spiv Yopa estae agent who hugly overvulued it saying it's worth 500-550 k.

I managed to pursude them to put it on lower at 485K.

Reduced to 430K still no interest. Large 1930s 4 bed detached needing extensive refrub.

Siblings still resisitant to drops.

Taken off the market to be marketed with new agent who advised overs 400K which sibs rejected 

Get them to check on house-price io and tell 'em to watch a few Charlie videos

[tlc]

20 minutes ago, CVG said:

Charlie videos

?

[spygirl]

25 minutes ago, tlc said:

?

https://www.youtube.com/@MovingHomewithCharlie

[spygirl]

On 19/06/2023 at 13:33, spygirl said:

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4813815-5-mortgage-rates?utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share

Lightscribe · 17/06/2023 13:44

We have a huge problem bubbling in this country. The government has done two things in particular that will continue to detrimentally affect the UK in particular.

The first is frozen tax thresholds until 2028. Lots will be continually pushed into the higher tax brackets (and won’t know to offset tax in a pension). People are lobbying for higher pay rises, but some will actually be worse off, taking into account loss of government benefits and higher tax. You’re better off for example earning £99k than £130k.

The second is giving inflationary uplifts to the non-productive majority of the country (54% does not pay tax). Triple locks, heating allowances, index linked public sector pensions, universal credit inflationary uplifts all come out of the public purse. The government are desperately trying to reduce inflation and they can’t because it proving sticky. Just as many Uber Eats drivers are on the road and holidays are being booked out.

The monetary tool of raising interest rates is to lessen inflation by cooling demand. All that’s being achieved at the moment is stuffing up the tax paying younger generation families, they are the ones with big mortgages, high LTVs and most outgoings.

Others have said on here that inflation is a result of Covid, war and climate change?? Nope, they are just catalysts. It’s a direct result of printing trillions and injecting it into the economy, like ice repeatedly pointed out for years in my comments on here (even before Covid).

The US treasury 2 year yield is still rising. Interest rates are still going to have to rise from here and the UK is behind the US.

 

@Lightscribe

I assume this is you.

 

[Sugarlips]

Poll results so far are much closer than I expected..

 

 

[Boon]

£3bn isn't gonna go very far really. I don't really see why the first choice option is for the banks to defer the extra interest costs and just add it to the mortgage. That provides genuine breathing space for people who genuinely can't pay.

Being cynical but isn't Lewis a campaigner for free taxpayer money? (Furlough, energy bills), so most of his followers would be biased towards that.

I can't help thinking he is just using the poll as some sort of cover. Because if he went straightaway for banging the drum for free money then his vested interests might be pointed out. 

Doing it this way the man can hide behind all his followers and say they wanted it, even though it looks like a slim majority of people have said no.

[Ina]

I don’t follow the MSM so I don’t know how much the collapse in apartment values in McCarthy and Stone type developments has been reported.  It is horrific with prices down 50% since purchase.  Typical scenario is that a 70 year old downsized in say 2006 and purchased a 2 bed leasehold flat in a sheltered scheme for £180k.  Ground rent and service charges are in excess of £5000 per annum.  Apartment prices have collapsed in value so said flat is now selling for £80k.  Add in to the equation that at date of purchase they didn’t have dementia and now they do and are running round screaming at all hours of the day and especially night.

I’ve got one on my books at the moment where they did an equity release with Aviva.  The redemption figure is fucking £320k.  Fortunately there is a no negative equity guarantee.

[Sugarlips]

8 minutes ago, Ina said:

I don’t follow the MSM so I don’t know how much the collapse in apartment values in McCarthy and Stone type developments has been reported.  It is horrific with prices down 50% since purchase.  Typical scenario is that a 70 year old downsized in say 2006 and purchased a 2 bed leasehold flat in a sheltered scheme for £180k.  Ground rent and service charges are in excess of £5000 per annum.  Apartment prices have collapsed in value so said flat is now selling for £80k.  Add in to the equation that at date of purchase they didn’t have dementia and now they do and are running round screaming at all hours of the day and especially night.

I’ve got one on my books at the moment where they did an equity release with Aviva.  The redemption figure is fucking £320k.  Fortunately there is a no negative equity guarantee.

So mgmt charges aside, it’s a much more viable option for someone facing the same life decision today ie £100k cheaper?

[Formerly]

12 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

And a £250k purchase for two frugal people on decent salaries with a substantial deposit from selling the flat will be very affordable.

It all depends on the equity in the flat. Decent money in Dunfermline could be anything above £30k. Or it could be £60k+, but most in the area would describe that as very good money, almost in the train driver league. And remember, Humza Useless will take a massive chunk of everything over £43k up here.

[Democorruptcy]

I suggested to RM that their default 5.15% mortgage rate was a bit low, they have upped it to 5.53%

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I suggested to RM that their default 5.15% mortgage rate was a bit low, they have upped it to 5.53%

Same again next month for ya then. 

[Ina]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

So mgmt charges aside, it’s a much more viable option for someone facing the same life decision today ie £100k cheaper?

Agreed in some ways they are a bargain.

[One percent]

6 minutes ago, Ina said:

Agreed in some ways they are a bargain.

The one near me must be 15 years old now.  The build quality looks appalling as its looking very tired.  

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Poll results so far are much closer than I expected..

 

 

Not mortgage holder: YES.

 

f**King made up if you ask me.

The sheer level of wailing by the MSM/celebs is disgusting, they must all be up to their necks in debt.

[Sugarlips]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Not mortgage holder: YES.

 

f**King made up if you ask me.

The sheer level of wailing by the MSM/celebs is disgusting, they must all be up to their necks in debt.

I assume they are trying to protect their equity 🙄

[spunko]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I suggested to RM that their default 5.15% mortgage rate was a bit low, they have upped it to 5.53%

You are doing God's work.

[Lightly Toasted]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

£3bn isn't gonna go very far really. I don't really see why the first choice option is for the banks to defer the extra interest costs and just add it to the mortgage. That provides genuine breathing space for people who genuinely can't pay.

Depends on how the banks have financed the loans (presumably not from their own capital) and what debt-service terms they have in turn. Somebody has to pony up to allow for the fact that someone entitled to interest, isn't getting it from the borrower.

In the end it would IMO come back to the state underwriting/funding the "forbearance" costs.

[Wight Flight]

26 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

In the end it would IMO come back to the state underwriting/funding the "forbearance" costs.

Yes. But they will spin it so that it looks like anything but this.

[With a crooked smile]

3 hours ago, Formerly said:

Humza Useless will take a massive chunk of everything over £43k up here

It's only 2% more than England not really a biggie.