Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Kendo]

A speculative help for mortgaged homeowners piece in the Guardian today 😠

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/16/what-steps-government-help-mortgage-borrowers

[onlyme]

Getting a decent - or at least made up inflation matching pay rise is a akin the raping the first born of your average BOE bod.

Let's see if they have been targeting inflation at all in their rate response and their inane economic mumblings.

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/punchy-pay-data-set-to-cause-more-mortgage-misery/

This morning, the ONS published new labour market statistics, and all eyes are on the pay data. Strong nominal pay growth, combined with lower levels of inflation, means that the real wage squeeze that workers have been facing for the past 18 months may well have ended. But, in stark contrast to the state of affairs just a few months ago, while strong pay growth might look like good news for workers, the Bank of England (as well as those looking to remortgage…) will be thinking about the implications for interest rates.

 

[onlyme]

Wait 18 months if looking to buy, as said supertanker  slow moving market, fully concur.

Even then who knows what the situtation will be like then, will need careful assessing.

 

 

[sancho panza]

#thisisgoingtoendwelll

ponzi running out of suckers who can source credit

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/over-half-with-credit-blips-face-mortgage-challenge/

Over half with credit blips face mortgage challenge

By David Burrows 12^th June 2023 2:56 pm

Over half (53%) of UK adults with a credit blip reveal it has impacted their ability to get a mortgage, rising to 86% of those aged 18-34.

The figures come from the latest research from specialist lender Together. The survey also shows that among those who’ve had a mortgage application rejected, a fifth (20%) couldn’t secure the mortgage they needed in time so lost their ideal home and 16% gave up on purchasing altogether.

According to Together, others had to go back to the drawing board and resort to more drastic measures, with a quarter (23%) relying heavily on family and friends to act as a guarantor – opening themselves up to possible repayment anxiety in the future – and 17% draining all their savings just to be able to buy with a cash deposit.

[HousePriceMania]

What's all this...

 

 

[Bear Hug]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's all this...

 

 

Auction starting prices. Doesn't mean much. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Bear Hug

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Auction starting prices. Doesn't mean much. 

Never seen 5 or 6 listed in a row like that.  

[Bear Hug]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Never seen 5 or 6 listed in a row like that.  

Will make for an interesting auction. 

That specific estate agent had a place in Reading for just over 100k about 2 years ago. Filled up on viewing day, then sold for well over 200k (if not 300 - can't remember) for a shitty run down 2 bed terrace. 

[GTM]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's all this...

 

 

From Northampton to Southampton(ish) 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136186217#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136185827#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136185770#/?channel=RES_BUY

Yes, it is cheap auction guide prices. But perhaps a sign that interest is very low and they need to drum up some interest on some pretty shitty places. BTL slumlords finding finance increasingly difficult? 

[HousePriceMania]

24 minutes ago, GTM said:

From Northampton to Southampton(ish) 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136186217#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136185827#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136185770#/?channel=RES_BUY

Yes, it is cheap auction guide prices. But perhaps a sign that interest is very low and they need to drum up some interest on some pretty shitty places. BTL slumlords finding finance increasingly difficult? 

Difficult...I'd say so 

[Wight Flight]

56 minutes ago, GTM said:

From Northampton to Southampton(ish) 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136186217#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136185827#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136185770#/?channel=RES_BUY

Yes, it is cheap auction guide prices. But perhaps a sign that interest is very low and they need to drum up some interest on some pretty shitty places. BTL slumlords finding finance increasingly difficult? 

That Southampton one is an absolute classic with the bathroom out the back.

could be a nice house with a bit of work.

no way will it go for £110k.

[Chewing Grass]

Entire UK Government needs Burning at The Stake.

Entirely a problem of lazy politicians (on the make) making.

The banks have got to play a bigger role. They need to step in and help people who are in trouble.

Not a problem caused by Banks, more a problem of governmental largesse and their orgy of low-cost debt since 2008.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live

[Wight Flight]

20 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Entire UK Government needs Burning at The Stake.

Entirely a problem of lazy politicians (on the make) making.

The banks have got to play a bigger role. They need to step in and help people who are in trouble.

Not a problem caused by Banks, more a problem of governmental largesse and their orgy of low-cost debt since 2008.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live

Please God no more help.

Just let it happen.

[spygirl]

LibDems to the rescue!

UK households remortgaging in 2024 face £2,900 rise in annual payments

New estimate of rising cost of borrowing increases pressure on Rishi Sunak to help families

https://www.ft.com/content/9940b3b2-1988-4658-95cb-fa312bd23185

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey on Friday called for a targeted £3bn “mortgage protection fund” for people whose homes would otherwise be repossessed, in a sign of growing political heat on the issue.

Theres so much shit in that small claim.

Where will the money come from? UK is now in deep shit, due to QE and not reducing its benefit bill.

And 3bln will be blown thru by a few 1000 claims.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Entire UK Government needs Burning at The Stake.

Entirely a problem of lazy politicians (on the make) making.

The banks have got to play a bigger role. They need to step in and help people who are in trouble.

Not a problem caused by Banks, more a problem of governmental largesse and their orgy of low-cost debt since 2008.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/jun/16/mortgage-rates-uk-government-urged-to-provide-emergency-help-costs-rising-nationwide-liberal-democrats-business-live

Ah LibDems. Again.

What fuckwits.

Bnaks are ver yvery very leveraged entities.

When things go wrong you have a choice - they blow up or the customers blow up.

The stupidity of the cretin Brown, in

1) Letting UK banks increase balance sheets (loans) by 5x-10x) in 2002-2007 propping up his mates

2) Attempting to bail them out

Has fucked the UK for 20y - another 10y to go.

The drag on the UK economy n plebs trying to continue with the fuckwittery of 2002-2008 asset prices constantly shows.

And now we are gettign the inflation blow back.

[JoeDavola]

42 minutes ago, spygirl said:

LibDems to the rescue!

UK households remortgaging in 2024 face £2,900 rise in annual payments

New estimate of rising cost of borrowing increases pressure on Rishi Sunak to help families

https://www.ft.com/content/9940b3b2-1988-4658-95cb-fa312bd23185

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey on Friday called for a targeted £3bn “mortgage protection fund” for people whose homes would otherwise be repossessed, in a sign of growing political heat on the issue.

Theres so much shit in that small claim.

Where will the money come from? UK is now in deep shit, due to QE and not reducing its benefit bill.

And 3bln will be blown thru by a few 1000 claims.

 

Mortgage protection fund ... you mean house price protection fund?

But that won't really work either as with much higher IR's even if you give existing mortgage holders 'free' money, if you dont do the same to new ones then fewer and fewer people down the chain are going to be able to afford to buy.

Which means the market pretty much grinds to a halt.

[Guest]

On 16/06/2023 at 08:37, Kendo said:

A speculative help for mortgaged homeowners piece in the Guardian today 😠

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/16/what-steps-government-help-mortgage-borrowers

A huge inherent bias in UK journalism is that the younger journos pumping out the copy are up to their eyeballs in mortgage debt on their main home in London/SE while the older ones telling them what to write are sitting on high 6 to low 7 figures of equity on their London/SE main home and may well have a second home and/or some BTLs too.

These people are exactly like the analogy of a fish that doesn't realise it's surrounded by water except in their case the water is astronomical property prices enabled by a seemingly endless quantity of cheap credit.

[Chewing Grass]

On 11/05/2023 at 20:59, Chewing Grass said:

Just popped back for a look and the postcode has just broke 300 for the first time since I started logging.

So 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 -221-246-249-250-253-241-261-268-281-293-303 over the last 272 days.

Well 309 days since I started and now 307 so the highest number of listings yet.

Looks better as a graph.

Should have made a better note of dates but its over 12 months.

Edit: So 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 -221-246-249-250-253-241-261-268-281-293-303-307 over the last 309 days.

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Chewing Grass

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

 

Mortgage protection fund ... you mean house price protection fund?

But that won't really work either as with much higher IR's even if you give existing mortgage holders 'free' money, if you dont do the same to new ones then fewer and fewer people down the chain are going to be able to afford to buy.

Which means the market pretty much grinds to a halt.

"For people who would otherwise be repossessed". Presumably you've got to be deep in the hole with missed payments before qualifying. Sort of a zombie homeowner.

It is just window dressing, pretending either to care or to be able to do anything much about it.

Besides it is the lib dems so utterly irrelevant.

At some point someone will work out what the cost of housing benefit will be for all the repossessed. You can bet a lot of them have been paying less in mortgage (up to interest rate increases) than they would in a rental.

[JoeDavola]

Was just thinking there a mate of mine got his house dirt cheap about 11 years ago - cost £60K - and despite he and his wife both working they've not cleared the mortgage in that time which is just incredible to me.

I don't even think they've paid half of it off.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Was just thinking there a mate of mine got his house dirt cheap about 11 years ago - cost £60K - and despite he and his wife both working they've not cleared the mortgage in that time which is just incredible to me.

I don't even think they've paid half of it off.

Sounds like they're simply paying the monthly repayments. They will be paying fuck all each month for another 14 years. Not a problem. Sure they could have paid it off but they haven't doubled down on a bigger house either. I suspect they're happy.

[JoeDavola]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Sounds like they're simply paying the monthly repayments. They will be paying fuck all each month for another 14 years. Not a problem. Sure they could have paid it off but they haven't doubled down on a bigger house either. I suspect they're happy.

He's happy she's not. She wants somewhere bigger but they don't earn enough.

It's a lovely house IMO, he got an absolute bargain.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

He's happy she's not. She wants somewhere bigger but they don't earn enough.

It's a lovely house IMO, he got an absolute bargain.

They will both be glad of that in a year or two.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Darude said:

A huge inherent bias in UK journalism is that the younger journos pumping out the copy are up to their eyeballs in mortgage debt on their main home in London/SE while the older ones telling them what to write are sitting on high 6 to low 7 figures of equity on their London/SE main home and may well have a second home and/or some BTLs too.

These people are exactly like the analogy of a fish that doesn't realise it's surrounded by water except in their case the water is astronomical property prices enabled by a seemingly endless quantity of cheap credit.

Younger jounros are more likely tyo shareing a HMO, like everyone else undfer 45 in London.

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

Younger jounros are more likely tyo shareing a HMO, like everyone else undfer 45 in London.

 

Yes to an extent, but younger journos are generally from wealthier backgrounds so more likely to have access to family money to put down as a deposit.