Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[spygirl]

No nice graph yet.

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/mortgage-lending-statistics

Latest findings

• The outstanding value of all residential mortgage loans was £1,675.4 billion at the end of 2023 Q1, 2.7% higher than a year earlier, but a decrease on the previous quarter for the first time since 2017 Q2.
   
• The value of gross mortgage advances in 2023 Q1 was £58.8 billion, which was £22.9 billion lower than the previous quarter, and 23.6% lower than in 2022 Q1. This was the lowest observed since 2020 Q2.
   
• The value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) in 2023 Q1 was 16.1% less than the previous quarter and 40.7% less than a year earlier, at £48.9 billion. This was also the lowest observed since 2020 Q2.

Mortgage lending... not as bad as global pandemic where everything shutdown.

However scrapping along floor.

 

[HousePriceMania]

Housing market has been fixed.

Crash cancelled

Sunak's told the banks to be nice to debt junkies

Fuck the poor, fuck workers, fuck savers.

[Chewing Grass]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Here's 4 of the first 25 properties in my search are today...notice anything ?

First 25 in my area are over £800,000, I'm not showing as some cunt'll think I'm posh and I ain't.

In fact the first 25 are 2.5x what I'd get for mine on a good day if I painted it and fixed it up 'good proper like'.

[One percent]

10 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

First 25 in my area are over £800,000, I'm not showing as some cunt'll think I'm posh and I ain't.

In fact the first 25 are 2.5x what I'd get for mine on a good day if I painted it and fixed it up 'good proper like'.

My search takes in the north edge of scabby.  Three ‘cuntry mansions’ have hit the market in the last 24/48 hours. All done up to within an inch of their lives. I’m guessing blow-ins, living the dream and a tad over extended.  
 

[HousePriceMania]

This might be important...

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, One percent said:

My search takes in the north edge of scabby.  Three ‘cuntry mansions’ have hit the market in the last 24/48 hours. All done up to within an inch of their lives. I’m guessing blow-ins, living the dream and a tad over extended.  
 

That'll be the average current asking prices up again.

let me know when they sell

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, One percent said:

My search takes in the north edge of scabby.  Three ‘cuntry mansions’ have hit the market in the last 24/48 hours. All done up to within an inch of their lives. I’m guessing blow-ins, living the dream and a tad over extended.  
 

Was this one ?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132664970#/?channel=RES_BUY

it's a price drop rather than a new one

 

13/06/2023	Price changed from £1,250,000 to £1,195,000
17/03/2023	Initial entry found: £1,250,000

[One percent]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Was this one ?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132664970#/?channel=RES_BUY

it's a price drop rather than a new one

 

13/06/2023	Price changed from £1,250,000 to £1,195,000
17/03/2023	Initial entry found: £1,250,000

Yep. Haven’t a chance. One is similar but ‘only’ 750 k. That won’t sell either unless a greater fool comes along.  
 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/134044910#/?channel=RES_BUY

[HousePriceMania]

34 minutes ago, One percent said:

Yep. Haven’t a chance. One is similar but ‘only’ 750 k. That won’t sell either unless a greater fool comes along.  
 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/134044910#/?channel=RES_BUY

It's half the size.

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's half the size.

Half the money to heat then. 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

This might be important...

 

 

Some good charts in the link underneath that tweet:

https://builtplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Housing-Market-Charts-2023.05.12.pdf

[HousePriceMania]

This house's asking price is a bargain compared to some of the crap up for sale round us.

Do you see the problem....
 

 

[Micky Roberts]

There will be no house price crash. It really is different this time.

Mass immigration will continue to increase the demand for accommodation resulting in much more multigenerational living and many more houses of multiple occupation.

More people / income per property will underpin prices. No doubt there will be localised variations but the average will be maintained by people ' enjoying' a lower quality of life while paying the same or more for the roof over their heads.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Micky Roberts

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, One percent said:

My search takes in the north edge of scabby.  Three ‘cuntry mansions’ have hit the market in the last 24/48 hours. All done up to within an inch of their lives. I’m guessing blow-ins, living the dream and a tad over extended.  
 

Id like to say something along the lines of - Who do they think will buy them?

Scabbies been cored out of under 50s working. Just the public sector.

However what goes for Scabby also goes for London. Probably more so with the finsec job losses and mass influx of useless migrants.

Something really has gone wrong/snapped back.

All that leverage thats built up since 2000, on the assumption of low low rates.

Fucked.

AS the radio said this morning - Rates at level last seen in the 80s.

We are heading for effective mortgage rates (MIRAS used to take a chunk out) with LTE at 2x - 3x the levels of the 90s crash - 10-15x LTE compared to ~5 LTE.

And all Liz Truss faults ....

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, Micky Roberts said:

There will be no house price crash. It really is different this time.

Mass immigration will continue to increase the demand for accommodation resulting in much more multigenerational living and many more houses of multiple occupation.

More people / income per property will underpin prices. No doubt there will be localised variations but the average will be maintained by people ' enjoying' a lower quality of life while paying the same or more for the roof over their heads.

Demand for property, Yes.

Ability to pay for it, No.

 

[Wight Flight]

I think another aspect to consider is BOMAD.

With low rates, a quick £50k equity release to help the kids get on the ladder was a bad, but not stupid idea.

with higher rates this might not be quite so commonplace, removing a lot of first time buyers from the market.

[One percent]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Id like to say something along the lines of - Who do they think will buy them?

Scabbies been cored out of under 50s working. Just the public sector.

However what goes for Scabby also goes for London. Probably more so with the finsec job losses and mass influx of useless migrants.

Something really has gone wrong/snapped back.

All that leverage thats built up since 2000, on the assumption of low low rates.

Fucked.

AS the radio said this morning - Rates at level last seen in the 80s.

We are heading for effective mortgage rates (MIRAS used to take a chunk out) with LTE at 2x - 3x the levels of the 90s crash - 10-15x LTE compared to ~5 LTE.

And all Liz Truss faults ....

 

 

 

Demand for property, Yes.

Ability to pay for it, No.

 

Partly it’s scaremongering. Rates are not higher than they have been since the 80s. It was higher right through the 90s

 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

30 minutes ago, One percent said:

Partly it’s scaremongering. Rates are not higher than they have been since the 80s. It was higher right through the 90s

 

 

So lots of room for them to rise still. Roll on 10% interest rates.

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, One percent said:

Partly it’s scaremongering. Rates are not higher than they have been since the 80s. It was higher right through the 90s

 

 

Rate were noisy from late 90s to early 90s.

Averages about 10%, with MIRAS taking a chunk out.

But back then LTE were much much lower. Other debt was rare. No students loans.

 

 

 

 

[Plan-b]

52 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I think another aspect to consider is BOMAD.

With low rates, a quick £50k equity release to help the kids get on the ladder was a bad, but not stupid idea.

with higher rates this might not be quite so commonplace, removing a lot of first time buyers from the market.

I've been looking at recent equity release rates and they are pretty scary. You would need either a strong stomach or a thick head to take one on at these rates.

 I'm sure a smallish amount like £50k you mentioned would still be doable but very costly especially if living to a ripe old age.

[spygirl]

Id add that mortgage finance has changed now.

No more drawing it all from BoE.

Banks have to raise a lot more capital and privet debt.

 

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Id add that mortgage finance has changed now.

No more drawing it all from BoE.

Banks have to raise a lot more capital and privet debt.

 

Yes, Term Funding (QE) was used to deliberately push down mortgage rates.

That has now ended.

People really dont want to face up to reality

[spygirl]

6 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I've been looking at recent equity release rates and they are pretty scary. You would need either a strong stomach or a thick head to take one on at these rates.

 I'm sure a smallish amount like £50k you mentioned would still be doable but very costly especially if living to a ripe old age.

• What is the interest rate? expandable section

  Our lifetime mortgage interest rates are based on your individual circumstances such as your age and property value and how much cash you would like to release. Interest is charged on the total borrowing, which increases the amount you owe (which is known as compound interest). Our expert mortgage advisers will explain how interest is calculated and arrange a personalised illustration, which will show you your interest rate.

   

  https://www.halifax.co.uk/mortgages/equity-release-mortgages.html

My very own interest rate ... Arnt I special ...

Letthe plebs have BoE base + 1% .....

 

[A tremendous # on the lung]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Id like to say something along the lines of - Who do they think will buy them?

Scabbies been cored out of under 50s working. Just the public sector.

However what goes for Scabby also goes for London. Probably more so with the finsec job losses and mass influx of useless migrants.

Something really has gone wrong/snapped back.

All that leverage thats built up since 2000, on the assumption of low low rates.

Fucked.

AS the radio said this morning - Rates at level last seen in the 80s.

We are heading for effective mortgage rates (MIRAS used to take a chunk out) with LTE at 2x - 3x the levels of the 90s crash - 10-15x LTE compared to ~5 LTE.

And all Liz Truss faults ....

 

 

 

Demand for property, Yes.

Ability to pay for it, No.

 

Hmm MIRAS

Perhaps that's the next prop?

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Yes, Term Funding (QE) was used to deliberately push down mortgage rates.

That has now ended.

People really dont want to face up to reality

I mean more 1970 - >2008.

Banks really have to put way of their more capital into mortgages.

From mid 00s when NR were putting less than 2% into mortgages, banks now have to stump up 20%.

More capital = less mortgage cash.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Hmm MIRAS

Perhaps that's the next prop?

Not on the UKs debt profile.

 

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, InLikeFlynn said:

The importance of this is that apparently this is the rate from which mortgage lenders price their loans. looking at typical margins in the past most fixed rates will be in the 5% - 6% range from now on, with potential increases to come.

Getting a bit confused, as this guy here [https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=maneco64] focuses on 2 yr Gilts being 'what to watch' for mortgage rates....is it that Sonia is for Fixed rate duration rates, and Gilts is for SVR?