Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[AlfredTheLittle]

19 minutes ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Hmm MIRAS

Perhaps that's the next prop?

So many renters already being completely shafted (many of them will also have student loans), it's surely not going to be politically possible to reduce tax for homeowners while raising it ever more for renters. Maybe RIRAS as well? 

[MrXxxx]

14 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

The probate house we offered on ( 30% below IAP and had it accepted ) is still on the market

Why if you have offered on a property and it has been accepted is it still on the market?...if I was in that situation I would have asked the EA as part of the deal to withdraw it from the market once my offer had been accepted.

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

Why if you have offered on a property and it has been accepted is it still on the market?...if I was in that situation I would have asked the EA as part of the deal to withdraw it from the market once my offer had been accepted.

He withdrew his offer. Pay attention.

[HousePriceMania]

40 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Why if you have offered on a property and it has been accepted is it still on the market?...if I was in that situation I would have asked the EA as part of the deal to withdraw it from the market once my offer had been accepted.

Decided not top proceed.  It was no bargain and renovation costs would have made the total cost much higher than better/similar houses in the area.

The EA told me they had someone else interested in it and we thought, you know what, it's not worth it so pulled out.

Dealing with a probate purchase seems to be a right pain in the arse.

The place is still on the market and now it looks badly priced relative to other stuff that's been listed, not selling and now dropping price.

So we are happy with our decision.
 

Edited June 14, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Micky Roberts said:

There will be no house price crash. It really is different this time.

Mass immigration will continue to increase the demand for accommodation resulting in much more multigenerational living and many more houses of multiple occupation.

More people / income per property will underpin prices. No doubt there will be localised variations but the average will be maintained by people ' enjoying' a lower quality of life while paying the same or more for the roof over their heads.

I thought everyone here already knew that prices are set via monetary policy not supply and demand ?

Here's the BoE admitting that 

https://positivemoney.org/2019/09/bank-of-england-confirms-positive-money-analysis-of-house-prices/

Now, prices are falling and 1.2M people came to the UK last year...how does that work under the supply and demand model ?

Then the number of available listings are shooting up with 1.2M people flooding into the UK....again, how does that work ?

 

[onlyme]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Decided not top proceed.  It was no bargain and renovation costs would have made the total cost much higher than better/similar houses in the area.

The EA told me they had someone else interested in it and we thought, you know what, it's not worth it so pulled out.

Dealing with a probate purchase seems to be a right pain in the arse.

The place is still on the market and now it looks badly priced relative to other stuff that's been listed, not selling and now dropping price.

So we are happy with our decision.
 

Exactly the dynamic change you get when the market turns, in a bull market you just go ahead anyway in fear of not finding anything at least as good for the same money, totally different mindset and pressures in a falling market. 

There are other factors that still might push through purchases - upcoming loss of a rental, locked in cheap mortgage deal or just not being able to afford any other mortgage deal if rates continue climbing, but all the house prices romping away effect has gone. This is why there is still some churn in the market, but it is no way an indicator of any rude health in it, more of a mopping up process of those that have to buy.

[MrXxxx]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The EA told me they had someone else interested

Ah the 'old "We have another buyer interested in it that is prepared to pay..."...oh, that line is so 2022!

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Dealing with a probate purchase seems to be a right pain in the arse.

I assume this is because there is often several offspring with differing agendas i.e. some need the cash, some don't, and so they can never agree on what a good offer is?...also, am I right in thinking that with probates offers only accepted provisionally and other offers can be taken right up to 'Exchange of Contracts'?

16 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

So we are happy with our decision.

As I always say "Never be too worried/desperate about missing a bargain as another usually follows fairly soon"

[onlyme]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I thought everyone here already knew that prices are set via monetary policy not supply and demand ?

Here's the BoE admitting that 

https://positivemoney.org/2019/09/bank-of-england-confirms-positive-money-analysis-of-house-prices/

Now, prices are falling and 1.2M people came to the UK last year...how does that work under the supply and demand model ?

Then the number of available listings are shooting up with 1.2M people flooding into the UK....again, how does that work ?

 

Partly due to population figures being a piece of fiction for the last couple of decades - aagain the AA stream, 15 years ago it was estimated by the supermakets that actual population was 10-15million higher than govt figures based on a number of factors including food sales volumes and energy use. mid 2,000's falling rates and extremely high net leagal and undocumented migration largely from EU caused the pulse that blew up the market, lowering rates again and continuing high migration netted off some of the Brexit effect when a lot of EE's left. Hong Kong migrants with lots of money filled another hole. Migration alone won't save it this time with rising rates.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

As I always say "Never be too worried/desperate about missing a bargain as another usually follows fairly soon"

Depends on circumstances, in a rapidly rising market maybe not, in any case in that situation unless you are really pally with an agent or (know say a probate family directly and can get in before it is marketed) and get the nod and a wink on a place you are unlikely to see it in the first place. 

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Ah the 'old "We have another buyer interested in it that is prepared to pay..."...oh, that line is so 2022!

I am waiting for the email..."are you still interested".

Yes, I will say, but will deduct another 20%

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I assume this is because there is often several offspring with differing agendas

Quite simply...YES.

i.e. some need the cash, some don't, and so they can never agree on what a good offer is?...also, am I right in thinking that with probates offers only accepted provisionally and other offers can be taken right up to 'Exchange of Contracts'?

I think that's the same with any sale.

As I always say "Never be too worried/desperate about missing a bargain as another usually follows fairly soon"

I think we were getting quite desperate when we offered on it but there are much better options available now.

Take this an example...it's not the same house/area  (honest):

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86183247#/?channel=RES_BUY

but it's not a world away from what we were looking at price wise, maybe a worse location and a smaller but nicer garden.

This is about £225 per sq ft and needs a bit of work.  

The other one was £350 per sw ft and need a shit load of work.

You can see why we pulled out now and I am so glad we did.

Edited June 14, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[GTM]

5 price reductions and 1 addition in my search area today.

Gradually. Then all at once.

We aren't there yet, but the downwards pressure on prices is becoming noticeable. There is still faint hope out there. Interest rates will fall. Inflation will weaken. Rents are holding up. House price indexes aren't showing much of a fall, maybe prices will plateau. Once that hope is extinguished it really won't take very much to get decent chunky falls going. Price falls will beget more selling pressure and more falls.

[jamanda]

A house across road from us was sold months ago.  High asking price.

The original owners moved out the week before Easter and the sold sign disappeared a couple of weeks ago.  No-one has moved in and there is no activity at all.

It's puzzling me because surely if the sale had fallen through it would be back up for sale.  Why would someone pay all that money and abandon it?

[Option5]

 

1 minute ago, jamanda said:

A house across road from us 

There's your answer.

The buyers have realised who will be living across the road from them and they're too scared to move in 

[jamanda]

We did think of that.  Wusses

[onlyme]

10 minutes ago, jamanda said:

A house across road from us was sold months ago.  High asking price.

The original owners moved out the week before Easter and the sold sign disappeared a couple of weeks ago.  No-one has moved in and there is no activity at all.

It's puzzling me because surely if the sale had fallen through it would be back up for sale.  Why would someone pay all that money and abandon it?

Happened to sale of friend's place, oddly still not occupied. Most obvious reason might be waiting to line up trades for renovation, if you have the money doing anything significant before moving in is the way to go, should be quicker, cheaper and less hassle.

[Option5]

More falling commercial property valuations.

https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/45m-knocked-off-asking-price-for-one-angel-square/

 

[onlyme]

20 minutes ago, Option5 said:

More falling commercial property valuations.

https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/45m-knocked-off-asking-price-for-one-angel-square/

 

If you want to see a shit show read up on San Francisco CRE - office and retail.

Long leases means we have not scratched the tip of the iceberg in terms of demand destruction of  office space that has already happened and not coming back thanks to hybrid working becoming a large proportion of previously 100% occupied space. Again that AA stream gave some details about the siesmic shift in working terms and conditions hat not only happned over the pandemic but has stuck since. Raises some questions about residential pricing changes as even if using the hybrid model employes oly wnt to travel 30 mins round trip rather than hour each way having tasted not having to commute.

Edited June 14, 2023 by onlyme

[Yadda yadda yadda]

There are lots of long term factors pushing up prices per square foot. Population growth as a percentage exceeds growth in square footage of residential property. People who, in previous generations, would have expected to be able to afford a three bed house will increasingly only be able to afford a two bed flat. However, that does not mean prices will continue to go up in the short term. Interest rate rises will still crush prices. They will also redistribute property as people are forced to sell.

In the long term prices per square foot will be higher in terms of mortgage repayment cost at purchase point. It could be a very long time until they reach real terms 2022 prices per square foot.

[sancho panza]

On 12/06/2023 at 22:40, MrXxxx said:

You think property affordability is high now, just look at the Victorians!...are we heading back there i.e. the majority of the population will be renters even late in life?

https://www.schroders.com/en/global/individual/insights/what-174-years-of-data-tell-us-about-house-price-affordability-in-the-uk/

There's a fair bit of nuance missing.Great reform act 1867 gave the vote to a few extra but universal suffrage iirc was 1918.You can't really judge the two eras side by side.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Act_1867

Before the Act, only one million of the seven million adult men in England and Wales could vote; the Act immediately doubled that number. Further, by the end of 1868 all male heads of household could vote

Edited June 14, 2023 by sancho panza

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Ah the 'old "We have another buyer interested in it that is prepared to pay..."...oh, that line is so 2022!

I assume this is because there is often several offspring with differing agendas i.e. some need the cash, some don't, and so they can never agree on what a good offer is?...also, am I right in thinking that with probates offers only accepted provisionally and other offers can be taken right up to 'Exchange of Contracts'?

As I always say "Never be too worried/desperate about missing a bargain as another usually follows fairly soon"

Ive not hadthe nornal 'font like writing' letter pop thru the door.

Hi. We have Mr n Mrs B, who were intrested in buying a house in your area buyt got let down.... this year.

Nomrally get a few of thse barrel scraping sales tecniques.

Not this year.

Maybe EAs cannot afford the paper?

Or the migrant to hand delvier them???

 

[MrXxxx]

15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

There's a fair bit of nuance missing.Great rerom act 1867 gave the vote to a few extra but universal suffrage iirc was 1918.You can't really judge the two eras side by side.

Agree, and as will all averages the 'Devil is in the detail' i.e. owned houses generally were bigger and owned by fewer.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

Something really has gone wrong/snapped back.

All that leverage thats built up since 2000, on the assumption of low low rates.

Fucked.

This is years of mismeasuring inflation,poor regulation, banking greed and public naievity coming home to roost.

From what I've seen of the BS and bank balance sheets this last few months,none of them are ready for a small loss of 10% to equity values,let alone 20%+

3 hours ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Hmm MIRAS

Perhaps that's the next prop?

There's no fiscal room for handouts to workers.

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

Ive not hadthe nornal 'font like writing' letter pop thru the door.

Hi. We have Mr n Mrs B, who were intrested in buying a house in your area buyt got let down.... this year.

Nomrally get a few of thse barrel scraping sales tecniques.

Not this year.

Maybe EAs cannot afford the paper?

Or the migrant to hand delvier them???

 

They don't need to hunt instructions, can't sell what they already have.

Kind of miss them, beats receiving funeral services and Saga leaflets.