Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[King Penda]

8 hours ago, spygirl said:

A Manchester.

Worker Bees a sop tat ratehrthan state of mind

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/when-will-the-tories-face-up-to-britains-benefits-scandal/

When researching The Spectator cover story last week, we came across a figure so shocking that I felt it had to be wrong: that Manchester, a city where 40,000 job vacancies are currently being offered, has an unemployment rate of 18 per cent. That is to say: almost one in five of the working-age population in the city (excluding children and pensioners) is on some kind of out-of-work benefits, including incapacity benefits. Not salary-tops, not supplementary welfare but benefits given to those who are not in work. In the middle of a worker shortage crisis, it’s quite the scandal.

 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchesters-hidden-army-unemployed-26109974

Greater Manchester's low unemployment rate leaves out a 'hidden army' of hundreds of thousands of working-aged people who are neither in work nor looking for a job due for reasons outside their control, a report by a leading think-tank says today.

According to the Centre for Cities, Manchester's official unemployment rate of 5.3% more than triples to 17% when those classed as 'involuntarily economically inactive' are included in the figures.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-streets-more-unemployed-24915999

There’s no hope in John McDonald’s eyes. “I haven’t eaten in three days,” he says, glancing down at the floor. “I’ve been on the streets since my mum and dad died four years ago.”

It’s a sad reality for too many. John, 58, says he lost his job as a joiner when the company shut down in 1979. In a tragic twist of fate, he broke his neck shortly after, leaving him in pain and out of work ever since. Homeless and alone, he now spends his days sleeping in parks around Gorton.

2023 - 1979 = 44.

58 - 44 = 14.

 

Darren Fitzgerald, 57, has struggled with an alcohol addiction for 20 years and drinks from as early as 4am every morning.

He now struggles with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, meaning he has breathing difficulties and needs specialist equipment at home. Despite his illness, the dad-of-seven says he would still never work – believing you’re better off on benefits than having a job.

He currently receives £159 a month as part of his Universal Credit allowance, as well as £259 a fortnight from other benefits.

Stop all cah benefits. They are not doign him any good.

“I’ve never worked,” he told the Manchester Evening News. “People don’t want to work anymore. You get more money on benefits.

 

I think people dont want to pau tax for a useless dosser to piss up the wall.

 

Bernard Valentine, from the Abbey Hey area, struggles with alcohol dependency. The dad-of-six lost his job as a labourer on a building site seven years ago and has not found work since.

 

 

Dazza71SEPTEMBER 4, 2022

Lost his job in 1979!!!! Really!!!

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GU

guesswhosbakSEPTEMBER 4, 2022

When the dossers themselves are admitting that it doesn’t pay to work why are the government not taking action

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IB

IBPOSITIVESEPTEMBER 4, 2022

All Unemployable, would you want any of them working for you?

They are correct but even so they are not helping themselves to defeatist .it only needs a policy change by a brave government or a government with no option and they could all end up in an hmo or barracks for pensioners in the future 

[King Penda]

11 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

So many renters already being completely shafted (many of them will also have student loans), it's surely not going to be politically possible to reduce tax for homeowners while raising it ever more for renters. Maybe RIRAS as well? 

No more likely another add on to their mortgage ie a sub loan

at 8% interest obviously 

[King Penda]

7 hours ago, One percent said:

These aren’t really the problem. It’s the inwork bennies used to underpin the corrupt business models of corporations. There should be no 16 hour shuffle and a full time job should be able to provide a decent home, food and clothing.  This is where the government needs to focus attention 

It’s also set out to destroy the nuclear family even I will admit if I had a working girlfriend that lived with me I could go after a realy nice house . But even if I rented with a woman your basicly cutting your bills by 50% 

[sancho panza]

Just keeping a more regular eye on inventory in Leics now the newsflow is deterirorating.

It does seem to me that a lot of more expensive hosues have come onto the market.Ive added a new column to show SSTC and it shows over time the bid level has been rel;atively constant but clearl;y lot of deals not completing hence rise in marketable invetory.

clearly backing up transactions imho as SSTC falling as a proportion of marketable invetory

 

Leicestershire county

                                     Available                                 Inventory

Date                            Inventory                                incl SSTC         SSTC

14/8/22                       3950

10/10/22                    4885                                             10416             5531

14/11/22                    5417                                             10188            4771

25/1/23                      5664                                                9295           3631

15/2/23                      6007                                                 9597          3590

22/3/23                     6168                                                10002         3834   

20/4/23                     6399                                               10494          4095

14/5/23                      6624                                               10958         4334

9/6/23                        6706                                               11332         4626

14/6/23                     6759                                                11431         4672

Edited June 14, 2023 by sancho panza

[MightyTharg]

7 hours ago, JohnnyB said:

 

Just an irrelevant point but that's a very interesting graph - no time axis but time plotted as the line. Plus the very useful trend curves showing the bands driven by the relationship of the axes.

 

Compare that with a typical BBC idiot friendly bar chart and you can understand how the bankers are able to fuck the population in the arse and get away with it, when the state of financial journalism is at this level ("Truss budget disaster!")

Serious question. Why do they offer mortgages at half the rate of inflation? The banks are guaranteed to lose money on all these mortgage offers. So what’s in it for them?

Is it like that Injun used to say that they only pretend to loan the money? 

Even , why don’t they pretend to lend the money at a more sensible rate?

 

[spygirl]

Could go in several threads esp 10m +- 2m EUers and tax credit sad face ....

Radio.

After various stuff on IR going up, mortgages harder to get etcetc etc.

They mentioned this study in passing -

No growth in average earnings since 2005, data shows

 

The Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk › article

 

14 hours ago — Average earnings are no higher than they were almost two decades ago, figures show, amid the longest period of wage stagnation since the ...

 

Bastrad Tories.... ruining the economy since 2005.

 

 

 

 

 

*ALL* the HPI since 2000ish has been built on bullshit and credit and Browns slush Vote-for-me money.

Theres no earnings to back those increase.

 

[wherebee]

On 14/06/2023 at 03:16, HousePriceMania said:

 

I dont think people realise just how insane the house prices actually are.

have a look anywhere on the country, it's 20x the local wage to buy a house.

Look at Hong Kong.  That's the going multiplier for most half decent (by HK standards) rate.  Families go inter generational and pool savings.

The cabal want this future -slums for the masses, property only for the elite.  Over a 50 year period, if houses remain at these levels, every family would slip out of property owning back to renting, as it was in my great grandfathers day.

[Castlevania]

52 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Could go in several threads esp 10m +- 2m EUers and tax credit sad face ....

Radio.

After various stuff on IR going up, mortgages harder to get etcetc etc.

They mentioned this study in passing -

No growth in average earnings since 2005, data shows

 

The Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk › article

 

14 hours ago — Average earnings are no higher than they were almost two decades ago, figures show, amid the longest period of wage stagnation since the ...

 

Bastrad Tories.... ruining the economy since 2005.

 

 

 

 

 

*ALL* the HPI since 2000ish has been built on bullshit and credit and Browns slush Vote-for-me money.

Theres no earnings to back those increase.

 

That’s earnings inflation adjusted using CPI. It’s worse than that - just look outside; the average person is worse off compared to then, because the CPI doesn’t do a good job of capturing the cost of essentials.

House prices haven’t done much if you inflation adjust either.

[JoeDavola]

30 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Look at Hong Kong.  That's the going multiplier for most half decent (by HK standards) rate.  Families go inter generational and pool savings.

Already happening in Belfast - though in small numbers.

I know of several instances where town houses, the kind with a couple of bathrooms in it, are bought by multi-generational Chinese or Indian. You could have three generations living under one roof, with the accumulated wealth of three generations funding it.

One of the many offers that my parents had for their house which has a good amount of space in it was from what seemed like two Indian blokes that planned to move both their respective families under one roof.

Close to a decade ago a friend of mine rented a newbuild apartment in the Titanic docks area and from his window he could see into the apartment opposite - it was a one bedder, but in the living room there was a mattress with three adult Indians sleeping on it. So the one bedder was housing 5-6 people I'd guess.

The difference is in that decade the inter-genrational folk have gone from renting slum flats to buying quite nice family homes. Again, small numbers for now but lets see where we are in another 20 years. The amount of chinese owned homes near my folks in east belfast is quite shocking.

[One percent]

5 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Already happening in Belfast - though in small numbers.

I know of several instances where town houses, the kind with a couple of bathrooms in it, are bought by multi-generational Chinese or Indian. You could have three generations living under one roof, with the accumulated wealth of three generations funding it.

One of the many offers that my parents had for their house which has a good amount of space in it was from what seemed like two Indian blokes that planned to move both their respective families under one roof.

Close to a decade ago a friend of mine rented a newbuild apartment in the Titanic docks area and from his window he could see into the apartment opposite - it was a one bedder, but in the living room there was a mattress with three adult Indians sleeping on it. So the one bedder was housing 5-6 people I'd guess.

The difference is in that decade the inter-genrational folk have gone from renting slum flats to buying quite nice family homes. Again, small numbers for now but lets see where we are in another 20 years. The amount of chinese owned homes near my folks in east belfast is quite shocking.

At least the Chinese aren’t going to go all stabby and blowy. Well, at least i think not. 

[JoeDavola]

53 minutes ago, wherebee said:

The cabal want this future -slums for the masses, property only for the elite.

I think the end game, and it might not happen in my lifetime but IMO is what they're shooting for... is most single people renting a room in an HMO, and most couples pooling their resources to rent a small two bed flat that is of the "build to rent" variety i.e. can never be bought and they will rent until they die.

I think the cabal reckon that they can eventually via the "boiling the frog" type slow but constant descent of quality of life for most workers eventually let things descend to this point without the masses rioting or giving up work completely. They'll have really good VR porn to distract them by that point.

There is a plan to build 800 flats in the docks of Belfast which are all built-to rent. The only social housing that I ever hear of (not that I'd get access to it anyway) being built these days are flats. All points IMO to the masses living in flats in the future.

I am also reminded of the American couple I stayed with in San Francisco - in their 60's, appeared quite middle class, a modest house that would be worth a fortune now I guess but they'd have gotten cheap back in the day - but to make ends meet they rented out the basement as a one bed flat to a full time tennant, and the second bedroom was airbnb-ed. I suspect from getting to know them they'd had some medical bills that had wrecked them financially - he was a mortgage broker and I don't think she really worked. At any one point they were sharing a very modest house with at least two other people.

My point with that story above is that for that couple, maintaining their position as property owners was evidently becoming more difficult as they aged; this isn't something we see in the UK but perhaps may do over time with inflation and with more people needing to cough up for things like medical treatment or simply not being able to heat and pay council tax on a larger house with whatever pension you have.

Edited June 15, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Wight Flight]

39 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

am also reminded of the American couple I stayed with in San Francisco - in their 60's, appeared quite middle class, a modest house that would be worth a fortune now I guess but they'd have gotten cheap back in the day - but to make ends meet they rented out the basement as a one bed flat to a full time tennant, and the second bedroom was airbnb-ed. I suspect from getting to know them they'd had some medical bills that had wrecked them financially - he was a mortgage broker and I don't think she really worked. At any one point they were sharing a very modest house with at least two other people.

Don't forget if the property is worth a fair bit their annual property tax will be eye-watering.

Average is $23,000.

https://bekinsmovingservices.com/blog/san-francisco-property-tax/

Edited June 15, 2023 by Wight Flight

[spygirl]

45 minutes ago, One percent said:

At least the Chinese aren’t going to go all stabby and blowy. Well, at least i think not. 

Only other Chinese, for money.

Like most closed efnik comminitues, the peaceful existense story tends to be a bit of a front/BS.

 

 

[JoeDavola]

10 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Don't forget if the property is worth a fair bit their annual property tax will be eye-watering.

Must be worth best part of a million dollars (edit: just checked and wouldn't be surprised if its over a million now) so yes the property tax would have been a lot. It was a modest detached three story (well 2.5 the top story was the roofspace bedroom) house up in the suburbs of San Fran, every morning you could sit in the back yard and see amazing views over the city never seen a view like it. Must have been worth a fortune.

So I do suspect it was a combo of property tax and medical bills that were stressing them, even if the house cost them a tiny fraction of what it was worth now.

Property tax in san fran is 1% of value so could be a grand a month easily.

Edited June 15, 2023 by JoeDavola

[JoeDavola]

12 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Don't forget if the property is worth a fair bit their annual property tax will be eye-watering.

Average is $23,000.

https://bekinsmovingservices.com/blog/san-francisco-property-tax/

Yep. Brutal.

[onlyme]

Oh dear no money.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-hunt-rules-out-help-mortgage-borrowers-backs-hike-interest-rates-2412428

Jeremy Hunt rules out help for mortgage borrowers as he backs Bank of England to hike interest rates

[Castlevania]

20 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Don't forget if the property is worth a fair bit their annual property tax will be eye-watering.

Average is $23,000.

https://bekinsmovingservices.com/blog/san-francisco-property-tax/

California property taxes are based on the purchase price not current prices

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Look at Hong Kong.  That's the going multiplier for most half decent (by HK standards) rate.  Families go inter generational and pool savings.

The cabal want this future -slums for the masses, property only for the elite.  Over a 50 year period, if houses remain at these levels, every family would slip out of property owning back to renting, as it was in my great grandfathers day.

We're all renting our time on this earth

[Wight Flight]

12 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

California property taxes are based on the purchase price not current prices

Yet another kick in the bollocks for the young then.

Why would anyone ever move?

[spygirl]

What's going to happen to house prices? Two property experts go head to head... and one predicts a 35% FALL by 2025

• Property values fell 3.4% annually in May, according to Nationwide
• We decided to speak with two experts who know the market inside out
• One of them thinks house prices will crash by 35%

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-12185481/House-prices-fall-35-2025-says-property-expert-disagrees.html?ico=mol_desktop_home-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fhome%2Findex.html&_ga=2.201577809.1395872220.1686552762-1153876054.1674210976&_gl=1*okcqz8*_ga*MTE1Mzg3NjA1NC4xNjc0MjEwOTc2*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTY4NjgxNjQ1Ny4zMy4wLjE2ODY4MTY0NjYuMC4wLjA.

 

...

Rob Dix was born n 1983.

He was 10 in 1993.

Hes also a London LL.

Dix is more optimistic about prices, believing that we are likely to see only a small dip in the short term, due to a drop in the number of people buying and selling. 

He believes, rather than a crash, we are more likely to see prices rebound in a year or two as mortgage lenders begin to relax their affordability checks unleashing a boom in borrowing. He warns that this lending boom will be a precursor to the eventual crash.

property *HAS* to sell. FFS. People, run otu of money etc.

In terms of mortgage lenders relxting affordabilty checks......

Jesus.

These are the BoE/FSA FFS.

They are going to tighten them more FFS.

Just for the moron, heres the UK lending boom - 

 

 

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals

[Yadda yadda yadda]

59 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Oh dear no money.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-hunt-rules-out-help-mortgage-borrowers-backs-hike-interest-rates-2412428

Jeremy Hunt rules out help for mortgage borrowers as he backs Bank of England to hike interest rates

State of the cookies on that site.

Hunt mentions that mortgage increases so far haven't stopped people spending on discretionary items. Meals out, new appliances, etc. The people eating out a lot don't have mortgages. They're pensioners. I've bought two new appliances this year. Both because the old one was knackered.

Mortgage rate increases are also a delayed mechanism. It isn't until around the end of this year that half of mortgagees will have higher bills. The result will be people falling further into debt more than restaurants losing custom.

They need to target the people that are able to cut spending. The most obvious group is the Government. Cut Government spending.

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

State of the cookies on that site.

Hunt mentions that mortgage increases so far haven't stopped people spending on discretionary items. Meals out, new appliances, etc. The people eating out a lot don't have mortgages. They're pensioners. I've bought two new appliances this year. Both because the old one was knackered.

Mortgage rate increases are also a delayed mechanism. It isn't until around the end of this year that half of mortgagees will have higher bills. The result will be people falling further into debt more than restaurants losing custom.

They need to target the people that are able to cut spending. The most obvious group is the Government. Cut Government spending.

Hotel bills first.

[spygirl]

 

 

[sancho panza]

53 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

 

Makes a lot of sense when you consider increased LTV's/slary income multiples....this is wroth nicking as well.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Makes a lot of sense when you consider increased LTV's/slary income multiples....this is wroth nicking as well.

The 6% is the new 13^ is just to naive., dumb.

I nthe late 80s/early 90s people wenret carry as much other financial commitemnts - stuident debt, PCP, CC, store cards.

Its not unsual to find people carrying ~10k-20k of unsecured debt.