Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[MrXxxx]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Ive not hadthe nornal 'font like writing' letter pop thru the door.

Hi. We have Mr n Mrs B, who were intrested in buying a house in your area buyt got let down.... this year.

Nomrally get a few of thse barrel scraping sales tecniques.

Not this year.

Maybe EAs cannot afford the paper?

Or the migrant to hand delvier them???

 

..or the customers to buy them?!

[onlyme]

Just now, sancho panza said:

This is years of mismeasuring inflation,poor regulation, banking greed and public naievity coming home to roost.

From what I've seen of the BS and bank balance sheets this last few months,none of them are ready for a small loss of 10% to equity values,let alone 20%+

There's no fiscal room for handouts to workers.

Hence Sunak's plea to the banks, all he can do.

[MrXxxx]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This is years of mismeasuring inflation,poor regulation, banking greed and public naievity coming home to roost.

From what I've seen of the BS and bank balance sheets this last few months,none of them are ready for a small loss of 10% to equity values,let alone 20%+

I think we need a Dosbodder to do a top ten of those most likely to fail...OK savings below £85k are 'protected' by the FSCS, with with inflation increasing the way it is do you want to wait months to get a 'refund'?

[spygirl]

47 minutes ago, Option5 said:

More falling commercial property valuations.

https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/45m-knocked-off-asking-price-for-one-angel-square/

 

A Manchester.

Worker Bees a sop tat ratehrthan state of mind

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/when-will-the-tories-face-up-to-britains-benefits-scandal/

When researching The Spectator cover story last week, we came across a figure so shocking that I felt it had to be wrong: that Manchester, a city where 40,000 job vacancies are currently being offered, has an unemployment rate of 18 per cent. That is to say: almost one in five of the working-age population in the city (excluding children and pensioners) is on some kind of out-of-work benefits, including incapacity benefits. Not salary-tops, not supplementary welfare but benefits given to those who are not in work. In the middle of a worker shortage crisis, it’s quite the scandal.

 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchesters-hidden-army-unemployed-26109974

Greater Manchester's low unemployment rate leaves out a 'hidden army' of hundreds of thousands of working-aged people who are neither in work nor looking for a job due for reasons outside their control, a report by a leading think-tank says today.

According to the Centre for Cities, Manchester's official unemployment rate of 5.3% more than triples to 17% when those classed as 'involuntarily economically inactive' are included in the figures.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-streets-more-unemployed-24915999

There’s no hope in John McDonald’s eyes. “I haven’t eaten in three days,” he says, glancing down at the floor. “I’ve been on the streets since my mum and dad died four years ago.”

It’s a sad reality for too many. John, 58, says he lost his job as a joiner when the company shut down in 1979. In a tragic twist of fate, he broke his neck shortly after, leaving him in pain and out of work ever since. Homeless and alone, he now spends his days sleeping in parks around Gorton.

2023 - 1979 = 44.

58 - 44 = 14.

 

Darren Fitzgerald, 57, has struggled with an alcohol addiction for 20 years and drinks from as early as 4am every morning.

He now struggles with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, meaning he has breathing difficulties and needs specialist equipment at home. Despite his illness, the dad-of-seven says he would still never work – believing you’re better off on benefits than having a job.

He currently receives £159 a month as part of his Universal Credit allowance, as well as £259 a fortnight from other benefits.

Stop all cah benefits. They are not doign him any good.

“I’ve never worked,” he told the Manchester Evening News. “People don’t want to work anymore. You get more money on benefits.

 

I think people dont want to pau tax for a useless dosser to piss up the wall.

 

Bernard Valentine, from the Abbey Hey area, struggles with alcohol dependency. The dad-of-six lost his job as a labourer on a building site seven years ago and has not found work since.

 

 

Dazza71SEPTEMBER 4, 2022

Lost his job in 1979!!!! Really!!!

REPLY 1 2

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GU

guesswhosbakSEPTEMBER 4, 2022

When the dossers themselves are admitting that it doesn’t pay to work why are the government not taking action

REPLY 5 1

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IB

IBPOSITIVESEPTEMBER 4, 2022

All Unemployable, would you want any of them working for you?

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, GTM said:

5 price reductions and 1 addition in my search area today.

Gradually. Then all at once.

We aren't there yet, but the downwards pressure on prices is becoming noticeable. There is still faint hope out there. Interest rates will fall. Inflation will weaken. Rents are holding up. House price indexes aren't showing much of a fall, maybe prices will plateau. Once that hope is extinguished it really won't take very much to get decent chunky falls going. Price falls will beget more selling pressure and more falls.

"Bring it on!"...hopefully :-)

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, jamanda said:

A house across road from us was sold months ago.  High asking price.

The original owners moved out the week before Easter and the sold sign disappeared a couple of weeks ago.  No-one has moved in and there is no activity at all.

It's puzzling me because surely if the sale had fallen through it would be back up for sale.  Why would someone pay all that money and abandon it?

Don't you realise how long it takes to paddle across from Calais?" ....if you are really concerned perhaps you can 'up' your Standing Order to RNLI to ameliorate the dilemma?! :-)

[AWW]

I dropped my misbehaving car off to be fixed in Headcorn the other day, first time I'd been. Nice place. Even those prices look a bargain compared to what's on offer round my way in north London.

[One percent]

37 minutes ago, spygirl said:

A Manchester.

Worker Bees a sop tat ratehrthan state of mind

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/when-will-the-tories-face-up-to-britains-benefits-scandal/

When researching The Spectator cover story last week, we came across a figure so shocking that I felt it had to be wrong: that Manchester, a city where 40,000 job vacancies are currently being offered, has an unemployment rate of 18 per cent. That is to say: almost one in five of the working-age population in the city (excluding children and pensioners) is on some kind of out-of-work benefits, including incapacity benefits. Not salary-tops, not supplementary welfare but benefits given to those who are not in work. In the middle of a worker shortage crisis, it’s quite the scandal.

 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchesters-hidden-army-unemployed-26109974

Greater Manchester's low unemployment rate leaves out a 'hidden army' of hundreds of thousands of working-aged people who are neither in work nor looking for a job due for reasons outside their control, a report by a leading think-tank says today.

According to the Centre for Cities, Manchester's official unemployment rate of 5.3% more than triples to 17% when those classed as 'involuntarily economically inactive' are included in the figures.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-streets-more-unemployed-24915999

There’s no hope in John McDonald’s eyes. “I haven’t eaten in three days,” he says, glancing down at the floor. “I’ve been on the streets since my mum and dad died four years ago.”

It’s a sad reality for too many. John, 58, says he lost his job as a joiner when the company shut down in 1979. In a tragic twist of fate, he broke his neck shortly after, leaving him in pain and out of work ever since. Homeless and alone, he now spends his days sleeping in parks around Gorton.

2023 - 1979 = 44.

58 - 44 = 14.

 

Darren Fitzgerald, 57, has struggled with an alcohol addiction for 20 years and drinks from as early as 4am every morning.

He now struggles with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, meaning he has breathing difficulties and needs specialist equipment at home. Despite his illness, the dad-of-seven says he would still never work – believing you’re better off on benefits than having a job.

He currently receives £159 a month as part of his Universal Credit allowance, as well as £259 a fortnight from other benefits.

Stop all cah benefits. They are not doign him any good.

“I’ve never worked,” he told the Manchester Evening News. “People don’t want to work anymore. You get more money on benefits.

 

I think people dont want to pau tax for a useless dosser to piss up the wall.

 

Bernard Valentine, from the Abbey Hey area, struggles with alcohol dependency. The dad-of-six lost his job as a labourer on a building site seven years ago and has not found work since.

 

 

Dazza71SEPTEMBER 4, 2022

Lost his job in 1979!!!! Really!!!

REPLY 1 2

SHARE

GU

guesswhosbakSEPTEMBER 4, 2022

When the dossers themselves are admitting that it doesn’t pay to work why are the government not taking action

REPLY 5 1

SHARE

IB

IBPOSITIVESEPTEMBER 4, 2022

All Unemployable, would you want any of them working for you?

These aren’t really the problem. It’s the inwork bennies used to underpin the corrupt business models of corporations. There should be no 16 hour shuffle and a full time job should be able to provide a decent home, food and clothing.  This is where the government needs to focus attention 

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, One percent said:

These aren’t really the problem. It’s the inwork bennies used to underpin the corrupt business models of corporations. There should be no 16 hour shuffle and a full time job should be able to provide a decent home, food and clothing.  This is where the government needs to focus attention 

*ALL* non working workign age people are the problem.

Basically  in a lot of town less than 50% of working age people are actually working FT.

The current benefit - and immigration - systems are infaltionary.

UK has no alternative to interest rate rises - Hunt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65891838

It does.

Slash working benefit.

Stop them after 5y.

 

 

 

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

*ALL* non working workign age people are the problem.

Basically  in a lot of town less than 50% of working age people are actually working FT.

The current benefit - and immigration - systems are infaltionary.

UK has no alternative to interest rate rises - Hunt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65891838

It does.

Slash working benefit.

Stop them after 5y.

 

 

 

Define nonworking. I was promised a pension from the state at 60. Paid in all my life for that. I’ve also contributed to private pensions and the goalposts were moved on that. I’m 61 and not working. I bet i would be classed as working age and fall into some such bracket as one of those who should be forced back to work. At any other time, i would just be classed as retired.  

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Ive not hadthe nornal 'font like writing' letter pop thru the door.

Hi. We have Mr n Mrs B, who were intrested in buying a house in your area buyt got let down.... this year.

Nomrally get a few of thse barrel scraping sales tecniques.

Not this year.

Maybe EAs cannot afford the paper?

Or the migrant to hand delvier them???

 

I had one some time back that had the PS 'If you are not the homeowner please forward this to your landlord'

Twats.

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I had one some time back that had the PS 'If you are not the homeowner please forward this to your landlord'

Twats.

I do admire their cheek though.  Must be the shiny suits and slicked back hair.  

[spunko]

Fuck sake. I thought they meant 6% next week, not by Christmas.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-12193577/Mortgage-rates-fall-experts-predict-period-calm.html

[One percent]

7 minutes ago, spunko said:

Fuck sake. I thought they meant 6% next week, not by Christmas.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-12193577/Mortgage-rates-fall-experts-predict-period-calm.html

Ah, you’ve not worked out how they play the game then.    it’s scaremongering. For whatever reason they have.  

[MrXxxx]

2023 Q2-Q4....well let's just hope the recent News/Banks/BS changes in the last few days is transient then!

 

Here is another nice figure from the Tweet someone posted earlier:

Took a bit of looking at but basically at Q4 2022 with mortgage rates @~4% properties were as affordable as in Q2 1985 with mortgage rates @~10%. If we extrapolate this a bit further, if rates are ~6% then they are as affordable as Q3 2007, and if they go to ~8% they will be as affordable as in Q2 1990 when rates were ~13%....

...well next weeks rate is 'baked in' with at least 0.25% [so 4.75% interest rate], so we are at 6% mortgage rate already [note some revalued product fixes were upped to 5.9% yesterday!], and it would only take another 2% [8 x 0.25% rises] to get to 8%; think this is unlikely, but who knows!

Edited June 14, 2023 by MrXxxx

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

Ah, you’ve not worked out how they play the game then.    it’s scaremongering. For whatever reason they have.  

[HousePriceMania]

 

[HousePriceMania]

it's relentless...

 

 

[MrXxxx]

So will the Housebuilders 'Mothball' their sites, ask for a government 'bail out', or reduce their profit margins?

 

 

2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
14.2%	17.0%	21.3%	25.3%	28.6%	34.1%	38.5%	45.6%	49.9%	49.4%	44.9%	45.8%	44.7%

..well it looks as though they have some 'flexibility' for the third option, but they will probably expect [and get?] the second one!

[Ash4781b]

55 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So will the Housebuilders 'Mothball' their sites, ask for a government 'bail out', or reduce their profit margins?

 

 

2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
14.2%	17.0%	21.3%	25.3%	28.6%	34.1%	38.5%	45.6%	49.9%	49.4%	44.9%	45.8%	44.7%

..well it looks as though they have some 'flexibility' for the third option, but they will probably expect [and get?] the second one!

What’s going on with land cost? What are they building multi storey houses on smaller plots ? 

[MrXxxx]

4 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

What’s going on with land cost? What are they building multi storey houses on smaller plots ? 

Just as your box of Cornflakes has been subject to shrinkflation, so has your home!...in addition, look at the increased number of flats/apartment blocks that are now being build and this goes some way to explaining the reduced cost of land.

Edited June 14, 2023 by MrXxxx

[Ash4781b]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Just as your box of Cornflakes has been subject to shrinkflation, so has your home!...in addition, look at the increased number of flats/apartment blocks that are now being build and this goes some way to explaining the reduced cost of land.

Yeah I had a quick look at what they had in my area. Not my cup of tea really. But maybe BTL is buying them

https://www.persimmonhomes.com/new-homes/south-east/colonial-wharf

[JohnnyB]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

 

 

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

 

Just an irrelevant point but that's a very interesting graph - no time axis but time plotted as the line. Plus the very useful trend curves showing the bands driven by the relationship of the axes.

 

Compare that with a typical BBC idiot friendly bar chart and you can understand how the bankers are able to fuck the population in the arse and get away with it, when the state of financial journalism is at this level ("Truss budget disaster!")

[Guest]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

So will the Housebuilders 'Mothball' their sites, ask for a government 'bail out', or reduce their profit margins?

 

 

2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
14.2%	17.0%	21.3%	25.3%	28.6%	34.1%	38.5%	45.6%	49.9%	49.4%	44.9%	45.8%	44.7%

..well it looks as though they have some 'flexibility' for the third option, but they will probably expect [and get?] the second one!

I'm pretty sceptical about that "build costs" number. Can it really cost 4-5x the average gross annual wage in materials and labour to put up these small floorspace timber frame houses? Especially since most of the sites the big developers are building out will be lots of nearly identical units so should benefit from economies of scale and standardisation.

I wonder what proportion of the "build costs" are actually regulatory costs due to the planning system i.e. the cost of employing people to put together planning applications and chase them through the system plus s106 obligations. A future government might well decide to start cutting back these costs to get more housing built.

[Guest]

Has anybody caught sight of the "interest rates won't go over 2% in this decade, maybe ever again in my lifetime" crew lately? They've been awfully quiet.