Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[sancho panza]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Asking prices still powering ahead while supply stays very low but slightly increasing

 

 

Scotland stil showing a fall from peak prices last year, everywhere else pretty much up 3% mom, up12% yoy with supply up 5% mom but supply down 30-50% from peak.

 

So much for rising mortgage rates stopping price rises.  The UK housing bubble is out of control.

 

 

It's only out of control if you buy into it.People have choices,buying a hsoeu is a chocie as demonstrated by teh posts on thread.

[spygirl]

19 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It's only out of control if you buy into it.People have choices,buying a hsoeu is a chocie as demonstrated by teh posts on thread.

Yeah ut ..

What about accidental LL with 10+ houses?

 

[haroldshand]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It's only out of control if you buy into it.People have choices,buying a hsoeu is a chocie as demonstrated by teh posts on thread.

As is renting is just a choice, in fact that and buying are the only two choices and for many those choices are a case of you are dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.

I rent by the way because it suits me better right now and I have a £1,500 monthly budget, many are not so lucky

[Napoleon Dynamite]

This one wouldn't sell it for £500K 3 years ago.  So now it's listed at £600K.  The insanity of the current market in blue and white.

 

[Boon]

Quite a few like that. 

A lot of them when they have long time gaps in the history I think were STC, chain falls through after some time, and so price goes up because seller thinks 'market has gone up since we sold'!

Also seeing quite a few like this:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/120382481#/?channel=RES_BUY

Stamp duty holiday tourists, or buyers remorse? Only common thing is that they too want some profits, but it is gonna be too late.

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, haroldshand said:

As is renting is just a choice, in fact that and buying are the only two choices and for many those choices are a case of you are dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.

I rent by the way because it suits me better right now and I have a £1,500 monthly budget, many are not so lucky

There's pro and cons to each.

There was one lad on the main thread who was talking about him,his mrs and four kids having to move 4 times in 5 years due LL's selling.

I msut say,I do the maths for buying on rental yields and psosible long term mortgage fixes.If I'd had to move that much in 5 years,I might not be so keen on renting.

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

Yeah ut ..

What about accidental LL with 10+ houses?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF3DvMiNVIY

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

This one wouldn't sell it for £500K 3 years ago.  So now it's listed at £600K.  The insanity of the current market in blue and white.

 

Genuneily impressed by the thought processes there.What a legend.Doesn't sell,lets stick the price up by 20%

[Joncrete Cungle]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

There's pro and cons to each.

There was one lad on the main thread who was talking about him,his mrs and four kids having to move 4 times in 5 years due LL's selling.

I msut say,I do the maths for buying on rental yields and psosible long term mortgage fixes.If I'd had to move that much in 5 years,I might not be so keen on renting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF3DvMiNVIY

If you have a shite landlord or a succession of shite landlords over a 5 year period. It really is hard work, especially with kids and changing schools etc. Perhaps different if your a single bloke who's worldly possessions fit in half a dozen boxes.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

If you have a shite landlord or a succession of shite landlords over a 5 year period. It really is hard work, especially with kids and changing schools etc. Perhaps different if your a single bloke who's worldly possessions fit in half a dozen boxes.

It's something we're concious of ie not chanigng schools,there's some places round leicester where you can't get them in because all the schools are over subbscribed.

Tough on young families for sure.

This country really has become a place where crapping on local people has become the bedrock of mainstream politics.

[Sugarlips]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It's something we're concious of ie not chanigng schools,there's some places round leicester where you can't get them in because all the schools are over subbscribed.

Tough on young families for sure.

This country really has become a place where crapping on local people has become the bedrock of mainstream politics.

This is the definition of the trickle down effect where they are in effect pissing on young people’s shoulders from above. The longer rates are low the worse it gets.

Individuals and families looking for an affordable home are not intentionally  crapping on locals, they are simply priced out of their home town.

This is certainly the case for us, Bournemouth prices have exploded in the time we’ve been overseas and are almost forced to places like IOW to maintain a viable standard of living.

In our case we like the island and are not career focused so don’t need to be on the mainland - it will work for us for now but we are the exception.

[Wight Flight]

3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

This is certainly the case for us, Bournemouth prices have exploded in the time we’ve been overseas and are almost forced to places like IOW to maintain a viable standard of living.

Have you seen what has happened to prices here?

[Sugarlips]

36 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Have you seen what has happened to prices here?

Indeed, a complete nightmare for the young and less fortunate ones. There is still price benefits for those who are able to sell now out of even more crazy places like Brighton and Bournemouth 

[Wight Flight]

3 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Indeed, a complete nightmare for the young and less fortunate ones. There is still price benefits for those who are able to sell now out of even more crazy places like Brighton and Bournemouth 

I don't hear of any coming from the South Coast towns. Oddly quite a few move from Devon.

[Sugarlips]

Hopefully these 2 are similar enough for a basic comparison 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121800383#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media9&ref=photoCollage

Shanklin asking £330,000

Vs

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121102379#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=video0&ref=photoCollage

Southbourne £475,000 

Getting on for 50% premium for mainland still.

Both nuts obviously!

[MithrilVest]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There's pro and cons to each.

There was one lad on the main thread who was talking about him,his mrs and four kids having to move 4 times in 5 years due LL's selling.

 

Absolutely.

The big issue for me with renting was the lack of security, it was bad enough as a single man, I can only imagine what it must be like with a family.

The cost of moving, monetary, physically, emotionally are all high too.

Possibly the new corporate landlords doing build to rent may change this? I'd like to think so.

[Boon]

Personally I think there is some measure of bad luck in there.

Been a landlord myself and you would surely want reliable people above anything else. If you had decent tenants there is not much point trying to muscle them out of an extra £50 a month. There also is monetary cost as unless you get lucky there also is void. So that rent rise may be quickly cancelled out and you would have replaced them with people who may not be as good.

Also maybe it could also vary but corporate landlords equals corporate contracts. Some of the ones I have seen offer multi-year tenure contracts but with rent rises tied to inflation each year, or if signing a one-year a rent rise is tried for.

I don't think these buildings are aiming for long-term tenancies. Revenue maximisation I think would mean these always being more expensive than the private market, so turnover would be high.

[Wight Flight]

4 hours ago, Boon said:

Been a landlord myself and you would surely want reliable people above anything else. If you had decent tenants there is not much point trying to muscle them out of an extra £50 a month

There is a point for an extra £250 though which seems to be the norm at the moment. Though most of ours are being evicted because the landlord is selling. Apart from the scumlords that kick the tenants out every summer to cash in on the higher holiday let prices.

[sancho panza]

On 05/04/2022 at 08:29, Boon said:

Personally I think there is some measure of bad luck in there.

Been a landlord myself and you would surely want reliable people above anything else. If you had decent tenants there is not much point trying to muscle them out of an extra £50 a month. There also is monetary cost as unless you get lucky there also is void. So that rent rise may be quickly cancelled out and you would have replaced them with people who may not be as good.

Also maybe it could also vary but corporate landlords equals corporate contracts. Some of the ones I have seen offer multi-year tenure contracts but with rent rises tied to inflation each year, or if signing a one-year a rent rise is tried for.

I don't think these buildings are aiming for long-term tenancies. Revenue maximisation I think would mean these always being more expensive than the private market, so turnover would be high.

You'd think that Boon but the move to allow BTL mortgages in the 90's changed the mix of person drawn into renting houses.Not saying it was a paradise before but the loss of council housing(most of the RTB ended up in the hands of BTL LL's),the unfair tax advantage enjoyed by BTLers till recently etc meant a huge swing in the hosuing mix away from OO's.

I think corporate LL's would be much better than the current crop of LL's who are a law unto themselves at times.Not all but a significant majority are quick to break the law or bully tenants into honouring unfair contract terms.

Also,we need to create better security of tenure.LL's are often quick to point out that they're doing it to top up their pensions.But if people can't afford to or delay family formation,the economci costs will dwarf the gains in their pension from BTL.

 

[sancho panza]

LE2 to demonstrate the long term point about liquidty.The UK hosuing market has serious structural problems in that they're hitting a liquidity wall.Even allowing for delays at the land regprices are squeezing higher on significantly lower vol.

I don't think we're at a turning point yet because there's still some new moeny coming in,but that's a nasty set up if you're a trader in that market.

 

also worth noting the comparative lack of vol in terraces versus detached

Vol wise 1.3% of detached hosuing stock sold in 6 months to Nov 21

1.3% of semi detached sold

0.9% terraced

1% for flats

 

https://www.mouseprice.com/area-guide/LE2

Edited April 6, 2022 by sancho panza

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

You'd think that Boon but the move to allow BTL mortgages in the 90's changed the mix of person drawn into renting houses.Not saying it was a paradise before but the loss of council housing(most of the RTB ended up in the hands of BTL LL's),the unfair tax advantage enjoyed by BTLers till recently etc meant a huge swing in the hosuing mix away from OO's.

I think corporate LL's would be much better than the current crop of LL's who are a law unto themselves at times.Not all but a significant majority are quick to break the law or bully tenants into honouring unfair contract terms.

Also,we need to create better security of tenure.LL's are often quick to point out that they're doing it to top up their pensions.But if people can't afford to or delay family formation,the economci costs will dwarf the gains in their pension from BTL.

 

Its the unholy trinity of IO BTL, Tax credits and EU FOM.

I keep an eye on Scarbs via the local FB whinge pages.
Its probably v similar to the IoW and Gt Bmouth.

Single parents pops kids out, wants to move away <insert shithole>
Previously theyd have no chance.
IO BTL expanded the PRS 4x+


The idiot Labour policy of setting LHA to the upper 30% ensure the LHA moved up with rents, which moved up with LHA, which moved up with rents etc etc.

SSo, nayone entitled to magic ebbny ticket - Shazza 3 kids, all ADHD, - Kerching.

'Me n ma Chesii, Bardlay, Lamrini would have a much better life if we moved to - Scarborough, IoW, Bmouthg etc'

Turn up, get flat, claim LHA, Bingo!

This fuckwittery, was then joined by EU FOMers, who are also all claiming TCs UCs etc etc etc.

Even the local single mothers have relocated out of the council estates/areas, which to be honest are rough and away from everything, and moving into PRS in town.

I can confirm this by looking at the FB profiles of the single mums ,who all list away away places as 'From' nit - Bradford, Ull, Leeds, Sheffield, Scotlandf, Riga, Gdansk ....

However,, now the LHA is set to bottom 30%, LHA is not going up., even if the rent is due to LL findign they have to pay tax.

Then throw in covid, where eviction have been stopped, just  at the same time gloves come off for S24.

So, LL have been waiting to evict.

However, they now run into a clogged up court system.

So they are chancing it with S21, which can be ignored, and wait for the eviction notice,.Then youve single mum with 14p-ers, who suddenly find that kids hitting 18 reduces UCs and housing allowance, so can no longer afford to stay in a rental that costs ~30% more than the council estate.

However, they no longer get the points - no kids under 18 - to get a a LA/council place, so they are scrabbling around trying to find a cheap rental that accepts pets - pitbull, komodo dragon etc.

The UK hasnt a housing shortage - we've ahd 15m-20m people pour in.

The UK has a  migrant excess.

 

[RJT1979]

On 04/04/2022 at 19:23, Napoleon Dynamite said:

This one wouldn't sell it for £500K 3 years ago.  So now it's listed at £600K.  The insanity of the current market in blue and white.

 

That's 350k 400k all day. Not a penny more

[spygirl]

20 hours ago, sancho panza said:

You'd think that Boon but the move to allow BTL mortgages in the 90's changed the mix of person drawn into renting houses.Not saying it was a paradise before but the loss of council housing(most of the RTB ended up in the hands of BTL LL's),the unfair tax advantage enjoyed by BTLers till recently etc meant a huge swing in the hosuing mix away from OO's.

I think corporate LL's would be much better than the current crop of LL's who are a law unto themselves at times.Not all but a significant majority are quick to break the law or bully tenants into honouring unfair contract terms.

Also,we need to create better security of tenure.LL's are often quick to point out that they're doing it to top up their pensions.But if people can't afford to or delay family formation,the economci costs will dwarf the gains in their pension from BTL.

 

Corporate LL, building a large block full of working 20-40 YOs, slap bang in the middle of every town n city.

No commute, no hovel, cheap to run,and cheap to rent out.

Built where  the retails buildings used to be.

Note the 'working' bit.

Fuck the Rigsbys.

 

 

[ccc]

Are there any numbers on the number of HK here already ? This must be adding pressure to the already fucked situation.

On a plus note though - many people in the UK could afford to buy the house they live on. Who exactly are they ever going to sell it too ?

We also have - even though the BoE want to do anything but - I test rates going back up to 5+% very soon imo. In the real world for debt even if the Boe don't agree. 

Far more downward pressure than upwards imo. 

[sarahbell]

A couple of house sale threads on mumsnets where valuations are coming back thousands below the asking prices.

 

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

A couple of house sale threads on mumsnets where valuations are coming back thousands below the asking prices.

 

wake me up when it's 60% below