Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[With a crooked smile]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

He's been praying and preaching for 14 years...

Didn't he STR? Fuck me even if house prices dramatically fell he'd still be way down once you include all that rent.

Of course he'll probably claim to have made some savy investments that have out preformed the housing market.  😆 

[leonardratso]

see this is how putin and zelensky started their tiff, one called the other a puff and it escalated very quickly from there.

[HousePriceMania]

15 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

He's been praying and preaching for 14 years...

@spunkoStill going I see

 

[haroldshand]

15 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Didn't he STR? Fuck me even if house prices dramatically fell he'd still be way down once you include all that rent.

Of course he'll probably claim to have made some savy investments that have out preformed the housing market.  😆 

Had to check STR out, sell to rent? and basically then that makes him a property investor who just made one massive dumb mistake.

The only reason I picked up on his endless posts was because... Well they are endless and just reeked of ToS desperation which you rarely read on this website, far more balanced here. ToS has been around for about 20 years now and quite simply it has been 100% wrong but with a small percentage of brilliant analysis, they will be right one day though, maybe quite soon even 

But I did notice that with the average ToS poster everyone who disagreed with them was called all sorts of names regardless of the fact they were right and they were wrong, so defensive with fragile arguments they never really believed themselves IMO, so fragile they think someone like me would break their spell

[Frank Hovis]

I think you are being rather unfair on @HousePriceMania here @haroldshand.

We all know that house prices are at stupid levels and that successive governments have colluded with banks and house builders to keep them so.

He runs a Twitter account to point out that obvious fact to the general public who cannot be reminded of that often enough; and posts relevant snippets here.

At root his views are commonly shared here even if we have lost much of that evangelical fire through the years or through buying.

I know that he and @Don Coglione have had a feud running for years for some reason but there's no need for anyone else to join in and take sides.

[haroldshand]

27 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think you are being rather unfair on @HousePriceMania here @haroldshand.

We all know that house prices are at stupid levels and that successive governments have colluded with banks and house builders to keep them so.

He runs a Twitter account to point out that obvious fact to the general public who cannot be reminded of that often enough; and posts relevant snippets here.

At root his views are commonly shared here even if we have lost much of that evangelical fire through the years or through buying.

I know that he and @Don Coglione have had a feud running for years for some reason but there's no need for anyone else to join in and take sides.

 

His views are sound on that side of the debate and I am not even picking on him, and to be fair I never even questioned his analysis in my recent initial posts to him though my main point I am making to him is be careful about becoming to ingrained in one thought or ideology, in fact that was the premise of me starting this whole thread which I totally forgot I started.

Just because another poster might question his house price crash manta in a polite debating manner where it could well end up with a "well lets agree to disagree then". I left ToS still thinking a property crash likely but hated their one view take no prisoners type of discussion where anyone who disagreed or even had a home whether it was a family, investment or BTL were vermin.

I asked him a simple polite question and the abuse starts and I was none of his silly little options though I have made a great deal of money in property in the past and I am now renting a Village home.

My challenge to him is to take on true doubters of a property crash with facts and not abuse if that's his genuine belief and  which I might add I am edging towards his argument though that can change in a second should someone also prove otherwise

[Virgil Caine]

35 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think you are being rather unfair on @HousePriceMania here @haroldshand.

We all know that house prices are at stupid levels and that successive governments have colluded with banks and house builders to keep them so.

He runs a Twitter account to point out that obvious fact to the general public who cannot be reminded of that often enough; and posts relevant snippets here.

At root his views are commonly shared here even if we have lost much of that evangelical fire through the years or through buying.

I know that he and @Don Coglione have had a feud running for years for some reason but there's no need for anyone else to join in and take sides.

 

Worth remembering that Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme started in the 1970s. It was only the liquidity crisis of 2008 that saw it collapse. Unsustainable financial structures can last a surprisingly long time.

[haroldshand]

42 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

Worth remembering that Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme started in the 1970s. It was only the liquidity crisis of 2008 that saw it collapse. Unsustainable financial structures can last a surprisingly long time.

Now the old "when the tide goes out we will see who was wearing trunks" argument is one I observe the most and applies to so much more than the property market, in fact I can see a scenario where property prices crashing when the system collapses will be the least of our problems.

China is working on a 100 year plan, Western democracies can barely make it through 5 year cycles

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Now the old "when the tide goes out we will see who was wearing trunks" argument is one I observe the most and applies to so much more than the property market, in fact I can see a scenario where property prices crashing when the system collapses will be the least of our problems.

China is working on a 100 year plan, Western democracies can barely make it through 5 year cycles

Well the argument that everything stays the same and nothing will ever change is equally vacuous. 
 

Incidentally I did not realise that Madoff was one of the pioneers of computerised trading nor that he had been one of the founders of the NASDAQ and Chairman of that exchange on no less than three occasions. He was much more of an establishment figure than the coverage of his funds collapse would have you believe.

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Virgil Caine

[haroldshand]

6 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Well the argument that everything stays the same and nothing will ever change is equally vacuous. 
 

Incidentally I did not realise that Madoff was one of the pioneers of computerised trading nor that he had been one of the founders of the NASDAQ and Chairman of that exchange on no less than three occasions. He was much more of an establishment figure than the coverage of his funds collapse would have you believe.

 

The one bit of information I would really like to know is how much are people leveraged in property, yes we know that some are up to the necks and will barely be able to take the most minor  of shocks that we now know are coming(bigger than minor though), but I have no idea the extent of peoples debt load from the bloke at work who was jealous of his work colleagues house and gave into peer pressure and over extended to the multi millionaire portfolios.

It's all about the numbers and if enough are on a knife edge we could be in for fireworks, anybodies  guess though

[Boon]

Personally I don't think enough are on the knife edge. At least where I am most professional families are more than able to cope with a couple of hundred quid extra cost a month without changing anything. And for most of the rest of them, they could also cope by simply cutting back expenditure in other areas.

There will be people that will be in trouble but much like the cladding stuff I do wonder if they get disproportionate press attention because it seems to make a good story.

Leading indicator for me would be increased volumes of listings, and that isn't happening (admittedly very few of the higher costs are yet to bite just yet)

[Don Coglione]

14 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think you are being rather unfair on @HousePriceMania here @haroldshand.

We all know that house prices are at stupid levels and that successive governments have colluded with banks and house builders to keep them so.

He runs a Twitter account to point out that obvious fact to the general public who cannot be reminded of that often enough; and posts relevant snippets here.

At root his views are commonly shared here even if we have lost much of that evangelical fire through the years or through buying.

I know that he and @Don Coglione have had a feud running for years for some reason but there's no need for anyone else to join in and take sides.

 

But how could we have had a feud running for years when he only "signed up" 18 months ago???

[Transistor Man]

21 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Incidentally I did not realise that Madoff was one of the pioneers of computerised trading nor that he had been one of the founders of the NASDAQ and Chairman of that exchange on no less than three occasions. He was much more of an establishment figure than the coverage of his funds collapse would have you believe.

 

I once heard many investors knew it couldn't be above board -- they just assumed the fraud was insider trading.  

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Transistor Man

[King Penda]

On 26/03/2022 at 12:04, haroldshand said:

Had to check STR out, sell to rent? and basically then that makes him a property investor who just made one massive dumb mistake.

The only reason I picked up on his endless posts was because... Well they are endless and just reeked of ToS desperation which you rarely read on this website, far more balanced here. ToS has been around for about 20 years now and quite simply it has been 100% wrong but with a small percentage of brilliant analysis, they will be right one day though, maybe quite soon even 

But I did notice that with the average ToS poster everyone who disagreed with them was called all sorts of names regardless of the fact they were right and they were wrong, so defensive with fragile arguments they never really believed themselves IMO, so fragile they think someone like me would break their spell

Fuck them I bought and paid my morgage off on my hovel in under 7 years and got banned for buying and calling the bottom .saved 45k in rent and over 12k in interest by overpaying and to rub it in it’s avaraged a 50 pound increase in its value each and every single week .for a balanced viewpoint maintenance has cost 11k.new doors an entire central heating system and double glazing carpets but it generated about 6k tax free from a lodger

Edited March 28, 2022 by King Penda

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Graham Cox, founder of the Bristol-based Self-Employed Mortgage Hub, also agreed that the UK could be entering into a property bull market. 

He said: "The decade long property bull run is coming to an end. It's true that chronic undersupply of housing stock remains but it's only insanely cheap credit that is underpinning demand, and we're now moving to a much higher interest rate environment.

 

BINGO!

Like I said to my disbelieving Dad a few years back, try asking for £600k when nobody can borrow £600k.

[Chewing Grass]

13 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Graham Cox, founder of the Bristol-based Self-Employed Mortgage Hub, also agreed that the UK could be entering into a property bull market. 

He said: "The decade long property bull run is coming to an end. It's true that chronic undersupply of housing stock remains but it's only insanely cheap credit that is underpinning demand, and we're now moving to a much higher interest rate environment.

 

BINGO!

Like I said to my disbelieving Dad a few years back, try asking for £600k when nobody can borrow £600k.

They only say the Emperor has no clothes when the Party is Over, its what being a financial expert is all about.

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Graham Cox, founder of the Bristol-based Self-Employed Mortgage Hub, also agreed that the UK could be entering into a property bull market. 

He said: "The decade long property bull run is coming to an end. It's true that chronic undersupply of housing stock remains but it's only insanely cheap credit that is underpinning demand, and we're now moving to a much higher interest rate environment.

 

BINGO!

Like I said to my disbelieving Dad a few years back, try asking for £600k when nobody can borrow £600k.

We've all know that for a very long time.  Supply and demand my arse.

If the tories mandated mortgages to 3x income and 4x joing income house prices would collapse tomorrow.

 

[spygirl]

36 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

We've all know that for a very long time.  Supply and demand my arse.

If the tories mandated mortgages to 3x income and 4x joing income house prices would collapse tomorrow.

 

BoE *has* mandated ~80% of mortgages have a LTE les than 4.5.

Its not collapsed as the number of hosues sold has shrunk.

However HPI will die a death as probates need to clear.

 

 

[spygirl]

Good example.

Detached houses are going to the moon - 

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=scarborough&startmonth=01&startyear=2020&endmonth=01&endyear=2022

		Jan 2020	Jan 2022	Change
	Detached	£279,005	£700,000	+151%
	Semi	£201,077	£237,000	+18%
	Terraced	£129,915	£137,286	+6%
	Flat	£115,385	£95,700	-17%
	All	£165,076	£184,695	+12%

However .......

Looking at the the transaction - and they shold have ~75^ of sales in LR by now - the reality is a lot worse - 

		Jan 2020	Jan 2022	Change
	Detached	13	1	-92%
	Semi	26	5	-81%
	Terraced	32	7	-78%
	Flat	26	5	-81%

Look at that fall in transaction.!  13 detached to just 1.

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

We've all know that for a very long time.  Supply and demand my arse.

If the tories mandated mortgages to 3x income and 4x joing income house prices would collapse tomorrow.

 

But they won't. Big problem.

[Boon]

Thing is though credit won't go from very cheap to expensive overnight.

Sentiment also isn't going to from positive to negative overnight either, I also don't expect this to go away quickly either. 

There was the old trick in retail that if you can't sell something at £50, then if you put reduced from £100 people think it's better value.... I do think to start with dips will be bought, as interest rate rises will be still small. At the end of the year it might only be 1.5% - still enough for the banks to put out superficially cheap mortgages. Most people will not give a fuck about anything else apart from whether they can afford the monthly payment.

But if things keep on as they are, it could be quite painful when sentiment does change. Already it is possible to see listings I would describe as 'unlucky mate', houses bought at the start of the pandemic which are not worth the same. And I don't know if we are close to people simply realising that some of the new build flats are really liabilities more than assets:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4516536-Flat-not-selling-is-it-time-to-change-agents

This seems quite pleasant now in that there are no idiotic comments on there 'its a sellers market', 'it'll be worth more in future', I expect these type of things to become more common.

[HousePriceMania]

18 minutes ago, Boon said:

Thing is though credit won't go from very cheap to expensive overnight.

.

This is pretty much over night in financial market terms. This looks to me to be the steepest rise in history

 

Imagine coming off your 2 year fixed in December to find your mortgage debt ois 5x more expensive 

[sarahbell]

https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2022/03/28/uk-housing-market-is-kaput-brokers-claim/

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

But they won't. Big problem.

No, they won't, that's why we are in the mess we are in and why collapse is unacceptable