Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Fuk me, At a quick glance I would say that share price has out run property prices over the long term. I can remember Killer Bunny saying something about this back in the day, probably you as well HPM.

Yes, it it is clearly a...dont panic RM is sound ( even with listings collapsed ) and oh look, RM is going up the housing market will to.

The propagandists are there for all to see.  I've tweeted the expert in question but to no avail, no reply.

And I've only been posting regularly for about 18 months so there is no back in the day. This is my day.

TCON sends his regards though 

[TMM]

12 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

I think it more subtle than you might believe. You can't just rock up and go 'I'll have 10x salary please'. 

It's the stress testing of the loan at higher interest rates that they are talking about dropping. Don't think that makes much difference for most people. 

Yes, I believe it's more subtle too. I suspect it's to accommodate remortgaging and stop those who have purchased in the last couple of years becoming 'Mortgage Prisoners'. 

[HousePriceMania]

18 minutes ago, TMM said:

... stop those who have purchased in the last couple of years becoming 'Mortgage Prisoners'. 

...by lending them more money to push up prices.

I cant believe people are falling for this.

[HousePriceMania]

Not my cup of tea but weren't people racing to the SW to hoove rup big houses to get a bit of space.

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119114726#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

That is about £175 per sq ft, which is below 2007 bubble levels in that area.

 

The Old Manor, Croscombe, Somerset

 

See map

 

£695,000

Price Change History

03/03/2022	Price changed from £875,000 to £695,000
24/01/2022	Initial entry found: £875,000

[spygirl]

Help to Buy’s legacy: higher prices and richer builders

Now is a good time to pick over the bones of the UK government’s controversial equity loan scheme

https://www.ft.com/content/f1a7bd5c-eb1a-47f8-ae85-6366397b3877

Introduced in 2013, the equity loan scheme — one of a number of government initiatives badged under “Help to Buy” — provided buyers with a loan of 20 per cent of the purchase price of a new-build home. It has regularly been blamed for boosting house price inflation, most recently in a report from the House of Lords published in January. Some £29bn of taxpayers’ money will be spent on the scheme before it ends next year — the report said the money could be better spent on building more homes instead of tied up in equity loans

blah blah ..

Basically outside of London HTB was a bit mhen.

Inside of London - cos they could have a much higher equity loan - 40% - it sent prices nuts.

Any prospective first-time buyers considering a new-build home suddenly found themselves in a far better buying position if the home was just inside London than outside — creating the geographic divergence picked up in the research. As a result, the median house price paid under Help to Buy in London rose from £323,000 in Q3 2015 to £447,000 in Q3 2016.

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https://www.ft.com/content/f1a7bd5c-eb1a-47f8-ae85-6366397b3877

As for the hundreds of thousands of buyers who have used Help to Buy, the situation is far from clear. Data from Homes England, which manages the scheme, shows a profit on the equity loans that have been repaid. This suggests the majority of those repaying have seen the value of their home rise. But this doesn’t account for those who haven’t sold or can’t sell. The longer-term success or failure of the equity loan cannot be determined in insolation. It will also depend on resolving the cladding crisis, the leasehold crisis, and the building quality crisis, all while the resale value of newbuilds — particularly flats — looks uncertain following the pandemic and in the face of the growing living costs.

[lid]

https://www.runcornandwidnesworld.co.uk/news/19963498.widnes-accountant-issues-warning-landlords/ 

Tax man going after landlords, to pay for all the covid bollocks. Fucking shame ☺️

Edited March 3, 2022 by lid
"sharp increase in investigations"..." going back years"

[Don Coglione]

19 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Yes, it it is clearly a...dont panic RM is sound ( even with listings collapsed ) and oh look, RM is going up the housing market will to.

The propagandists are there for all to see.  I've tweeted the expert in question but to no avail, no reply.

And I've only been posting regularly for about 18 months so there is no back in the day. This is my day.

TCON sends his regards though 

 

[spunko]

Is there really any need to continually bring this up @Don Coglione

[Don Coglione]

20 minutes ago, spunko said:

Is there really any need to continually bring this up @Don Coglione

Only as long as @HousePriceMania pretends to be someone else and, de facto, calls me a liar. As requested by you, I have not engaged directly with him.

[leonardratso]

might as well just let it go, lifes too short, even if its the same person, so what, who gives a shoite?

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Not my cup of tea but weren't people racing to the SW to hoove rup big houses to get a bit of space.

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119114726#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

That is about £175 per sq ft, which is below 2007 bubble levels in that area.

 

The Old Manor, Croscombe, Somerset

 

See map

 

£695,000

Price Change History

03/03/2022	Price changed from £875,000 to £695,000
24/01/2022	Initial entry found: £875,000

That's hardly a typical house. Grade 1 listed, large, old. I suspect it needs lots of work done immediately plus ongoing maintenance will be extensive and regular.  

[HousePriceMania]

23 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

That's hardly a typical house. Grade 1 listed, large, old. I suspect it needs lots of work done immediately plus ongoing maintenance will be extensive and regular.  

A friend of mine lives around there. Crap half the size of that was selling for more 3 months ago 

[spunko]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Only as long as @HousePriceMania pretends to be someone else and, de facto, calls me a liar. As requested by you, I have not engaged directly with him.

Sounds like your ego investment is a bit too high, this is an anonymous forum.

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, spunko said:

Sounds like your ego investment is a bit too high, this is an anonymous forum.

These replies to DC pop up now and again and I realise she is still at it !!! 

God this is so disturbing. I find it pretty creepy that a grown woman can get so fixated by someone on a web forum.

Grow up ffs will you.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Only as long as @HousePriceMania pretends to be someone else and, de facto, calls me a liar. As requested by you, I have not engaged directly with him.

@spunkoAll joking aside, is this an admission that this nutter is not going to stop harassing me ?

Is he upset that he's being called a liar because he's calling me a liar ?

No one's calling him a liar, I'm calling him a pathetic deluded psycho stalker will some serious mental issues.

[leonardratso]

ban everyonen  tos style

[spygirl]

On 28/02/2022 at 17:35, No One said:

Ok, I just stumbled on something whilst looking for a chart.

Someone has gone into digging up very very old AV.House Price data going back 200 years.

 

 

This chart is shocking! Look at the amount of housing built in the 50's!

 

Comment on any housing/mortgage stats -

Mortgages did not become a mass product until the 70s, when the majority of people owned their own home.

And data from before the 1980s was pretty piss poor.

I tend to draw the line at 1980 when looking for hisotrical info.

At the moment the number of (house buying) mortgages sold has resumed its post 2008 slump (remortgages dont count).

At some point people will grasp that they are very unlikely to sell their house in their life time.

My local area is there at the mo.

At the moment, a failed house sale is met with - Ah well, the house has gone in the 4 years Ive been trying to sell it ... Ill retry in a few year time.

When people start chasing prices down - higher IRs, cannot afford to keep the house, whatever.

Then the panic happens. And they realise  theres only 1 mortgage for 5 houses for sale.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Foxton's hit all time lows today despite their good results.

 

The london property market is clearly booming.

[Boon]

Quite an interesting topic from a bear point of view, but these are never discussed at length on the forums.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6339492/converting-a-flat-to-buy-to-let

I actually know a few people in this situation, although have rented it out only because the current asking prices are under what they paid, and getting a buyer to complete even at that price is a long-winded process which might cost months in voids.

Don't think he has phrased it well but it would have been interesting for someone to crunch the numbers properly.

I do think in London at least there will be a fair amount of people who have bought in 2016 but need to move on (ie had kids), but are in the same situation.

In some cases those with the good careers may have saved a decent wedge and also had pay rises allowing them a few options. But I don't think that's the majority and a lot of people are stuck like this chap. The pandemic has made it easy to pretend that this is what they wanted all along, but that is over now.

[HousePriceMania]

 

More of the same, unless you live in Scotland, prices down 7.07% from peak.

Available listings in the SW/SE rise

 

Oddly scotland got rid of their "help" scams.

[HousePriceMania]

Nothing to see here.... 

 

The current insanity is showing up weak businesses for what they are imho 

[PatronizingGit]

On 04/03/2022 at 00:47, leonardratso said:

ban everyonen  tos style

It wasnt just me then!

I didnt even get a warning!

[PatronizingGit]

On 04/03/2022 at 07:44, spygirl said:

Comment on any housing/mortgage stats -

Mortgages did not become a mass product until the 70s, when the majority of people owned their own home.

And data from before the 1980s was pretty piss poor.

I tend to draw the line at 1980 when looking for hisotrical info.

At the moment the number of (house buying) mortgages sold has resumed its post 2008 slump (remortgages dont count).

At some point people will grasp that they are very unlikely to sell their house in their life time.

My local area is there at the mo.

At the moment, a failed house sale is met with - Ah well, the house has gone in the 4 years Ive been trying to sell it ... Ill retry in a few year time.

When people start chasing prices down - higher IRs, cannot afford to keep the house, whatever.

Then the panic happens. And they realise  theres only 1 mortgage for 5 houses for sale.

 

 

 

Good points.

I also wonder if the 'housebuilding' rates are net of demolitions or just 'new completions' I assume its just completions, because presumably the figure would have gone negative during WW2 as housing stock was lost to bombing raids,  along with virtually nothing residential getting built. 

Everyone goes on about how housebuilding was so high in the mid 50s to mid 70s, but one has to remember that pretty much as many houses were raized in the same period. Often you would get entire bulldozing of tenements/back to back terraces along with the construction of over-spill towns anew. So I think statements like 'we can/should be building more because we did in the past' are rather boneheaded.

That doesnt happen now. Older stuff is renovated. Net of demolitions, I'd guess actual housing additions have been higher in the last 20 years than ever. 

[haroldshand]

Just caught the Halifax house price data 10 minutes ago  and splurted my coffee out laughing at yet another inevitable rise.

I am telling you Dudes this house market inflation is in-destructible 

[Noallegiance]

Oh the irony. Taken from a LinkedIn post:

"Around this time last year, six months after graduating from the London School of Economics I bought my first investment property which was a 2-bed, semi-detached house in the Midlands"