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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

haroldshand

By haroldshand
in Property Prices & Economy

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RJT1979

RJT1979

Posted
Posted

Im 30 miles out from london and seeing prices rise 5k every few weeks. Spoke to agent and he reckons 10 people ready to view every house at 350k area. Not so much 400+ area. Wfh must be bringing people back to easy commute to London 1 day a week.

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Ina
Ina

Massive feedback from my colleagues in New Build and Residential Property is that we are on the cusp of a serious turn in the market.  Everyone is extremely twitchy.  Estate Agents are very nervous.  

Democorruptcy
Democorruptcy

When you are looking at a property on RM they have an example mortgage payment with Nationwide at the bottom. I noticed the rate 3.8%, just for fun I clicked through on one to Nationwide and was quote

Ina
Ina

My lovely colleagues in our Residential Conveyancing team are suddenly very twitchy having noticed a recent sea change.  Our FD is more so.   In Probate granny houses with the usual artex, swirly carp

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RJT1979

RJT1979

Posted
Posted

It's a multi culture area also. These areas actually do quite well as you not only have whites but well heeled ethnics looking to buy as well. The whiter areas I'm looking to move to are not going up as fast it seems. Bonus

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Don Coglione

Don Coglione

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Im 30 miles out from london and seeing prices rise 5k every few weeks. Spoke to agent and he reckons 10 people ready to view every house at 350k area. Not so much 400+ area. Wfh must be bringing people back to easy commute to London 1 day a week.

I'm surprised you can buy a house for £350k 30 miles from London.

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I'm surprised you can buy a house for £350k 30 miles from London.

You can buy 2 / 3 bed Victorian terraces in London post codes for £350k.

As @spygirl has said many times, these places would have been approx £410k 4 years ago.

Not everywhere is booming.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ccc said:

Are there any numbers on the number of HK here already ? This must be adding pressure to the already fucked situation.

On a plus note though - many people in the UK could afford to buy the house they live on. Who exactly are they ever going to sell it too ?

We also have - even though the BoE want to do anything but - I test rates going back up to 5+% very soon imo. In the real world for debt even if the Boe don't agree. 

Far more downward pressure than upwards imo. 

As per my recent post when you look at the volume data in LE2(many other psotcodes similar) then you can see it's an equity swapping market in the main ie the bulk of transactions are in the middle and top of the market as a percentage of overall voluem.

fwiw I'm looking to short builders and banks not to buy a hosue,property prices are a function of that trade.Prices are still moving up but on lower vol/very low vol.

interasting anecdotal from @RJT1979 ref the bid ceiling at £400k.would show a little hesitancy buying bigger hosues given energy prices going higher.

Still hearing shocked voices at teh school gate talking energy bills.Really starting to hit middle class people who've not been hit before

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted (edited)

these are the uk 10 msot high vol postcodes

I don't know the other psotcodes well but presume Brighton has a lot of flats.I do know LE3 well and the vol in flats and terraces is awful.

https://www.inyourarea.co.uk/news/uks-10-most-popular-postcodes-for-house-sales-in-2021-have-been-revealed/

pretty much where it was in 2017

image.png.63f48fcfa657090714c440800b479c5d.png

checlk out the 300++ vol back in the 00's.

image.png.cc9d1940ff42b8dad726486cbffe10bd.png

25% up on 2015

image.png.9cc25bfc9c5f3035cb1d15257e7656de.png

5% upon 2017 roughly

image.png.b0aee5f590f0dd459fed5b12284f2505.png

 

flat since 2017

image.png.3d27c46bfe3da330d013dfddfaff663b.png

20% up on jan 17

image.png.9534776cef0fa550842cfde58a14a368.png

below feb 2017

image.png.a0f1ad55b855235a3a0a1abc552d6ef3.png

up 25% since 2016

image.png.5b9711f66383c5ff4300a52e20099f88.png

flat on sept 2016

image.png.5079cd75f924634a647ebf5e9be850c2.png

up 3.5 times since 2000 but check the vol.....

image.png.7400a8e7ee9c16ecbd452f82c1545c7a.png

Edited by sancho panza
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RJT1979

RJT1979

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Barratts peaked in Dec 06 alongside Persimmon.

Decl:no positions

image.png.2ec7ced8d0c99b7bc0b97ea719381679.png

may 07 for Berekely

image.png.65510011142631bb19d1f88c7a1c0d8e.png

image.png.b1a7e157f4fcb6b7ca6699df6ad78318.png

September 07 was when market turned negative in South East. Lots of rewriting history and mentions of 2008 but it was sep 07. New builds couldn't sell and builders became desperate.

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

September 07 was when market turned negative in South East. Lots of rewriting history and mentions of 2008 but it was sep 07. New builds couldn't sell and builders became desperate.

Sep 07 was when the renovation projects started grinding to a halt in London. I remember it well, it was the first time I got that tunnel vision through fear. It was a good experience to go through, I have been tougher mentally ever since.

QE kicked in of course holding things up and some London areas went through booms.

It took years to filter through, you could still get a relatively cheap house in parts of London until late 2012.

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

fwiw I'm looking to short builders and banks

Interesting, Mr Panza.

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GTM

GTM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Sep 07 was when the renovation projects started grinding to a halt in London. I remember it well, it was the first time I got that tunnel vision through fear. It was a good experience to go through, I have been tougher mentally ever since.

I've added a couple of places to my watchlist recently that require serious renovation.  Not because I expect to be able to buy them. I'd be looking for 30%+ falls on them to even start to entertain the idea. Even then I'd be trying to get more off. But they aren't priced very much lower than stuff that doesn't need anything like the same work. If anything starts to wobble surely it is these sorts of places. It would be utter lunacy to look at the price of everything rocketing, especially all the building materials that would be needed, and think I'm going to pay asking for that place. I figure it's going to be renovation projects where the prices will start to give first.

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, GTM said:

I've added a couple of places to my watchlist recently that require serious renovation.  Not because I expect to be able to buy them. I'd be looking for 30%+ falls on them to even start to entertain the idea. Even then I'd be trying to get more off. But they aren't priced very much lower than stuff that doesn't need anything like the same work. If anything starts to wobble surely it is these sorts of places. It would be utter lunacy to look at the price of everything rocketing, especially all the building materials that would be needed, and think I'm going to pay asking for that place. I figure it's going to be renovation projects where the prices will start to give first.

Agree.

I have started taking notice of the energy certificates recently, it gives you a rough idea of what needs doing, windows, doors, insulation, etc. Again you see places with a low rating at the same price as places with a higher rating. I would expect that to change in the future at some point.

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RJT1979

RJT1979

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Agree.

I have started taking notice of the energy certificates recently, it gives you a rough idea of what needs doing, windows, doors, insulation, etc. Again you see places with a low rating at the same price as places with a higher rating. I would expect that to change in the future at some point.

Do you need this certificate to sell your house? 

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sarahbell

sarahbell

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Im 30 miles out from london and seeing prices rise 5k every few weeks. Spoke to agent and he reckons 10 people ready to view every house at 350k area. Not so much 400+ area. Wfh must be bringing people back to easy commute to London 1 day a week.

One near me ""DUE TO HIGH DEMAND VIEWINGS ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. PLEASE REGISTER YOUR DETAILS WITH RYDER & DUTTON SHOULD MORE VIEWINGS BECOME AVAILABLE""

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Do you need this certificate to sell your house? 

I am not sure.

You currently cannot rent out a property in the F / G level, government have said this is extending to D /E from 2025.

There is a thread on here somewhere about EPC applying to mortgages.

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

One near me ""DUE TO HIGH DEMAND VIEWINGS ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. PLEASE REGISTER YOUR DETAILS WITH RYDER & DUTTON SHOULD MORE VIEWINGS BECOME AVAILABLE""

Estate agents are complete scum, the tactics they are using now, make them look honest in days gone by.

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sarahbell

sarahbell

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Estate agents are complete scum, the tactics they are using now, make them look honest in days gone by.

I knew it'd be of great interest when I saw it. Massive garden. Biggish house. Nothing offensive about it. And probably a bit cheap compared to what stuff has been going for.

So little coming on the market still that anything will look good.

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

I knew it'd be of great interest when I saw it. Massive garden. Biggish house. Nothing offensive about it. And probably a bit cheap compared to what stuff has been going for.

So little coming on the market still that anything will look good.

I have no doubt they are being honest, if its such a great house why not keep the viewings going? Take it to sealed bids, prices are going up every week are they not?

Probably selling it to a mate in the trade, like they always do with the best, cheapest properties.

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sarahbell

sarahbell

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have no doubt they are being honest, if its such a great house why not keep the viewings going? Take it to sealed bids, prices are going up every week are they not?

Probably selling it to a mate in the trade, like they always do with the best, cheapest properties.

Yeah that's a possibility. I know one of the other EA locally was doing that in 2003. Cheeky fucks. 

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Yeah that's a possibility. I know one of the other EA locally was doing that in 2003. Cheeky fucks. 

I sometimes see a new listing appear that says "sold prior to listing", always makes me suspicious.

I have seen it first hand, builder has a estate agent mate, nice house becomes available, easy to extend add value. Builder gets the house cheap (brown paper envelope), does the easyish renovation, estate agent sells it for a record price (brown paper envelope).

I am not talking about myself, just to be clear.

Edited by Bobthebuilder
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Wight Flight

Wight Flight

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, sarahbell said:

One near me ""DUE TO HIGH DEMAND VIEWINGS ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. PLEASE REGISTER YOUR DETAILS WITH RYDER & DUTTON SHOULD MORE VIEWINGS BECOME AVAILABLE""

This is pretty much normal.

Once they have 30 or 40 viewings booked in they are wasting their time booking any more. Especially since they will also have a lot of people that will buy without viewing.

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sleepwello'nights

sleepwello'nights

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Do you need this certificate to sell your house? 

No but some solicitors/conveyancers tell the seller they must have them. 

When we sold our house the buyers solicitor tried to insist that we have an electrical safety certificate and a gas safety certificate. This was before the new electricity regulations had been implemented for rental property and it was our home in any case not a rental property.

I was surprised they didn't raise questions on cladding. 

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dnb24

dnb24

Posted
Posted

Interesting discussion. 
Here in midlands- listing numbers for sale went from 1300 last summer to 750 January- now up at nearly 1000. The majority of houses we looked at last year (July-October) that have been “sold” are still sitting as SSTC. A number of those SSTC last year are back on the market. 
Anecdotal- neighbours have “sold” their house 3 times in 6 months - back on the market 2 weeks ago- sold again- who knows if it’ll go through.

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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted

I would love to see a dip just to see attitudes like 'house prices always rise', 'my house is my pension' shit disappear. Surely it would be a good thing to see the general public educated a little. I would say now you have a position where there are many people who have 95%+ of their total worth in a property. But not only that, it is leveraged position.

As I mentioned before I do know some people who have rented rather than sold, 'waiting for the market to recover', but I do wonder if there may be more slow-motion car crashes like this:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/118196975#/?channel=RES_BUY

(check the historic sold price)

Said person may be facing a situation where there is a £50k+ loss, and they cannot get a remortgage because the valuation will be much less. A higher mortgage cost also means they can't rent it either.

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