Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[GTM]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Remind me, has this company `turned` a profit yet?...like the 2000s tech bubble over again.

No, they haven't. Their accounts may say that they have, but their accounts are top to bottom fraud.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017021002253/tsla-20210930.htm

Accounts receivable nearly $2bn, when the vast majority of their "sales" are in cash.

$13bn in accounts payable and deferred liabilities, an increase of $4bn on the last Q.

To be honest though, discussing Tesla's accounts is like debating the 0-60 time of Santa's sleigh. Since they are both essentially fantasy, they can be whatever you want them to be.

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/petrofac-plans-raise-180-mln-pounds-fund-bribery-settlement-sky-news-2021-10-25/

 

Petrofac plans to raise 180 mln pounds to fund bribery settlement -Sky News

[invalid]

 

Raising the national living wage (applies to those over 23) will reduce universal credit payments due to the minimum income floor:

https://revenuebenefits.org.uk/universal-credit/guidance/entitlement-to-uc/self-employment/minimum-income-floor/

"For UC purposes, if a person is in gainful self-employment in an assessment period, and their earned income (ie their gross profits along with any employed earnings) in that assessment period amounts to less than their individual earnings threshold (the minimum income floor, MIF), they are treated as having earned income equal to the MIF"

 

This will likely hit a lot of the nail technician, the dog walker and the cup cake makers.

 

This news about BP, British Airways and sustainable fuels may have already been covered:

 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/reimagining-energy/bp-in-collaboration-with-ba-on-sustainable-aviation-fuel.html

 

Emma Delaney, bp’s EVP of customers & products, comments on the significance of our new deal with British Airways in the drive to decarbonize the skies

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, GTM said:

No, they haven't. Their accounts may say that they have, but their accounts are top to bottom fraud.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017021002253/tsla-20210930.htm

Accounts receivable nearly $2bn, when the vast majority of their "sales" are in cash.

$13bn in accounts payable and deferred liabilities, an increase of $4bn on the last Q.

To be honest though, discussing Tesla's accounts is like debating the 0-60 time of Santa's sleigh. Since they are both essentially fantasy, they can be whatever you want them to be.

Musk reminds me of someone...

 

 

[invalid]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/petrofac-plans-raise-180-mln-pounds-fund-bribery-settlement-sky-news-2021-10-25/

 

Petrofac plans to raise 180 mln pounds to fund bribery settlement -Sky News

 

 

Share price down 21% today - wow.

[belfastchild]

18 minutes ago, GTM said:

No, they haven't. Their accounts may say that they have, but their accounts are top to bottom fraud.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017021002253/tsla-20210930.htm

Accounts receivable nearly $2bn, when the vast majority of their "sales" are in cash.

$13bn in accounts payable and deferred liabilities, an increase of $4bn on the last Q.

To be honest though, discussing Tesla's accounts is like debating the 0-60 time of Santa's sleigh. Since they are both essentially fantasy, they can be whatever you want them to be.

Take out the bitcoin sales and the selling electricity/leasing for their cars and the 'profit' is gone. Never mind being a subsidy junkie (hence the move to Texas). Jackanory springs to mind.

It wont be the first time I mention them and Worldcom in the same breath (and I used to work with Worldcom).

[stoobs]

10 hours ago, JMD said:

Sounds nice. Please clarify whether I should use as pizza topping or pie filling?

It’s just something to keep kids going between meals.

Like a posh Milky Way.

[Hancock]

13 hours ago, Starsend said:

If you pay enough so that it buys a modest life, say a 3 bed semi and  holiday once a year, ya know, like wot it used to be, there'd be no shortage of takers. Never was, just people unwilling to work for fuck all.

Dunno things have changed drastically since then, kids who got mucky had parents who done so and they encouraged it as they themselves done OK out of it ... but the same parents now see doing physical labour as a way to an early grave for fuck all reward.

Not to mention the fact that half the kids go to university meaning they're too good for it, and plenty are seemingly happy to work in call centres or supermarkets these days.

To top it all, that modest life you talk of needs the salary of a doctor or lawyer in many parts of the country, hence "stuff" will still be cheaper to make overseas!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

These funds that 'divest from fossil fuels therefore we are holy' really get on my wick. They change absolutely nothing apart from altering the fund's rate of return for better or worse. All they've done is sold existing shares they bought in the secondary market back on to the secondary market. Big fucking deal, what actual difference does it make to your 'we are concerned about global warming' shite or to the company in question that already got the money long time ago in an IPO or secondary market offering? The square root of fuck all.

All they should be concerned with is managing their investments to deliver the returns needed to fulfil their pension liabilities full stop. Anything else is just virtuous willy waving.

Long may it be so.They have removed themselves from the macro,and have turned into useless retail investors.Future is electric,oil shares are dead.Its how retail investors usually operate thinking they are the only ones seeing it and ahead of the game.

Iv said it before,but Tesla etc make no difference to oil and gas demand.Indians getting a fridge is about 100 times more important.

Tesla etc have done amazing from loose money.They can issue shares at ludicrous prices instead of debt and get a huge advantage over the competition and attract great workers with share options.Others will copy the tech though.They had a cash outflow again this quarter.

 

 

[Sugarlips]

This is why $TSLA broke the $1000:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/25/business/hertz-tesla-purchase/index.html

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

This is why $TSLA broke the $1000:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/25/business/hertz-tesla-purchase/index.html

Fun Fact 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, invalid said:

 

 

Share price down 21% today - wow.

Seems there is going to be some option given to share holders

Anyone any thoughts on wether to take it up ?

[nirvana]

On 24/10/2021 at 20:53, Bobthebuilder said:

Its probably right. I had a quote for 2.5 meter concertina bifold extension doors recently, £24,000 fitted, I had to do the building prep work.

for me those concertina doors are a 'keep up with the jones'/'trendy dick' mistake lol

ie I put a big extension on the back of a big house and copied a 'posh twat mate'....the doors were shit cos they either need to be 'open lots' or closed, even when one door is open you need to wedge it with something or else it'll get smashed in the wind

Another posh mate put some large traditional patio doors in and they were SO much better......more glass, less frames and ie you can just leave it open slightly to get some air in....

ah them were the days when I was a posh cunt.....now it's just about being a cunt 

edit: i just had a flashback lol, they need to concertina externally, so the first door opens outwards and that is why it's susceptible to the wind.....if your pad is REALLY big you can maybe make em concertina inwards and that'll be better....but that's like Robbie Fowlers old pad probs  

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

for me those concertina doors are a 'keep up with the jones'/'trendy dick' mistake lol

ie I put a big extension on the back of a big house and copied a 'posh twat mate'....the doors were shit cos they either need to be 'open lots' or closed, even when one door is open you need to wedge it with something or else it'll get smashed in the wind

Another posh mate put some large traditional patio doors in and they were SO much better......more glass, less frames and ie you can just leave it open slightly to get some air in....

ah them were the days when I was a posh cunt.....now it's just about being a cunt 

Whole back of my downstairs is  patio doors and windows right across the back.Like you say lovely in summer just opening onto the back garden,but wind is a killer,i drilled two holes into the patio that two bars drop in to secure when open.Cost me £1600 new,cash in hand to the bloke in the window factory and my mate fitting them with me labouring.

[nirvana]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Cost me £1600 new,cash in hand to the bloke in the window factory and my mate fitting them with me labouring.

I saw that crazy post re the £120k attic conversion

I had a really good one done on a 3 bed semi in Leeds in the 90s, complete with dormer and staircase that looked like it could have been there from the start......sure it was £8k cash in hand...

house sold for circa £90k in 99...last time it went for over £300k I think....fuking bankers eh lol

[Ash4781b]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

for me those concertina doors are a 'keep up with the jones'/'trendy dick' mistake lol

ie I put a big extension on the back of a big house and copied a 'posh twat mate'....the doors were shit cos they either need to be 'open lots' or closed, even when one door is open you need to wedge it with something or else it'll get smashed in the wind

Another posh mate put some large traditional patio doors in and they were SO much better......more glass, less frames and ie you can just leave it open slightly to get some air in....

ah them were the days when I was a posh cunt.....now it's just about being a cunt 

edit: i just had a flashback lol, they need to concertina externally, so the first door opens outwards and that is why it's susceptible to the wind.....if your pad is REALLY big you can maybe make em concertina inwards and that'll be better....but that's like Robbie Fowlers old pad probs  

 I was thinking about that. My Garden faces South so I thought yeah would be good to open out onto the patio. On a hill though so patio 4 bricks lower I think. So not really a continuous threshold but don’t want water ingress.

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Ash4781b said:

 I was thinking about that. My Garden faces South so I thought yeah would be good to open out onto the patio. On a hill though so patio 4 bricks lower I think. So not really a continuous threshold but don’t want water ingress.

Back of my house faces North and the garden slope up away from the house, bifold doors are not an issue as it is dark 'n' damp.

[TNS]

I've got bifolds and to handle the wind they have a heavy duty magnet that keeps the first panel open against the second. Very handy in summer too when it's blazing and you can open them fully (south facing).

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

for me those concertina doors are a 'keep up with the jones'/'trendy dick' mistake lol

Agree. Black aluminum that will go out of fashion quicker than an avocado bath suit.

I didn't go for the quote by the way, going to have them made out of wood by a local joinery company for a lot less money.

I will bear in mind the wind chaps, good tip.

@Cattle ProdI sold my CNA off last week, first profit I've made on them. Will keep an eye on the price for a while. Cheers.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Remind me, has this company `turned` a profit yet?...like the 2000s tech bubble over again.

Yes, it sold some of its BTC!!

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

Cathie Woods comes across as a loon who got v v lucky.

 

I'm a veteran of the tech bubble in 2000.We were buying small techies from about 1996 on via newsletter techinvest.I could see the bubble signs around me-total lack of wood for the trees/valuations on steroids/momo buyers buying cos theyd gone up and then more momo buyers buying cos theyd gone up/people plucking earnings figures from their from the time on their watch etc etc.This was pre internet.HSBC had a share screen in town and all the wannabee Buffets(incl yours truly) gathered there through the day.

I'll never forget loads of those guys laughing at me,telling me I was a loser etc etc when I was selling our tech stocks .We sold too early as is my form and bought super cheap miners/banks etc some of which I again sold too early lol.Over teh years tho, I'd see those guys around Leicester and some of them admitted they'd lsot their shirts in that crash even tho they could see the madness around them.

Point I'm making is that I watch Wood's video above,she jsut doesn't seem that well informed on fuel issues-our own @Cattle Prod @Transistor Man @Bobthebuilder& others,seem far more well informed to my untrained eye on the infrstructure needed to run the worlds fleet of 1.5 billion cars.

And that's a key issue,no point having leccy cars if you can juice them.No point financing people having leccy cars if they can't use them.

I'm not dismmisng Wood,she's made more than I ever have but I am saying she doesn't seem as well informed as say Jeremy Grantham.

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This was pre internet.HSBC had a share screen in town and all the wannabee Buffets(incl yours truly) gathered there through the day.

 

Is that you on the left ?

 

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm a veteran of the tech bubble in 2000.We were buying small techies from about 1996 on via newsletter techinvest.I could see the bubble signs around me-total lack of wood for the trees/valuations on steroids/momo buyers buying cos theyd gone up and then more momo buyers buying cos theyd gone up/people plucking earnings figures from their from the time on their watch etc etc.This was pre internet.HSBC had a share screen in town and all the wannabee Buffets(incl yours truly) gathered there through the day.

I'll never forget loads of those guys laughing at me,telling me I was a loser etc etc when I was selling our tech stocks .We sold too early as is my form and bought super cheap miners/banks etc some of which I again sold too early lol.Over teh years tho, I'd see those guys around Leicester and some of them admitted they'd lsot their shirts in that crash even tho they could see the madness around them.

Point I'm making is that I watch Wood's video above,she jsut doesn't seem that well informed on fuel issues-our own @Cattle Prod @Transistor Man @Bobthebuilder& others,seem far more well informed to my untrained eye on the infrstructure needed to run the worlds fleet of 1.5 billion cars.

And that's a key issue,no point having leccy cars if you can juice them.No point financing people having leccy cars if they can't use them.

I'm not dismmisng Wood,she's made more than I ever have but I am saying she doesn't seem as well informed as say Jeremy Grantham.

I worked with some people who became multi-millionaires over night in the dotcom bubble, including the receptionist !!!

They weren't allowed to sell their shares for 12 months after listing ( not sure why ) and by the time they were allowed to sell their was little point as they were pretty much worthless. All the porsches and Ferraris had to go back.

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv said it before,but Tesla etc make no difference to oil and gas demand.Indians getting a fridge is about 100 times more important.

Tesla etc have done amazing from loose money.They can issue shares at ludicrous prices instead of debt and get a huge advantage over the competition and attract great workers with share options.Others will copy the tech though.They had a cash outflow again this quarter.

 

 

and herein lies the genius of this thread seeing the wood for the trees.

add in diesel vans/lorries

https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/06/how-many-cars-are-there-in-the-world/

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Steve Kaplan has been wrong on Tesla and some of his other shorts. Tesla is going to have to fall 50% for him to cover his short (7% of his net worth!). But Tesla will of course fall over 50% at some point, and because Steve has the patience of a saint, he'll no doubt still make a profit. I'd love to know how he is shorting with no time decay. Can you remember, @sancho panza? I bet Tesla has all sorts of interesting things in their accounting.

I don't know how Kapaln's shropts per se whether it's conventional shorting(posting margin) or via puts(my preferred choice if avaialable).He's not had the best of runs in terms of timings and he's has some huge portfolio per centages at risk.He most definitely isn't shorting without time decay as you either have to borrow stock or buy puts.

I recently had some calls on oilies that were down 50% and then the october run bailed them out and we made 50% on the upside.That was with a small %age at risk.Looking at his QQQ shorts etc,he's got a huge position that is the sort that'll get closed at parity for the relief.I don't care how cool you are,noone sits on those sorts of losses without closing them early.

I was shoritng Tesla a couple of years back wehn me and Jim Chanos got it wrong big time.Market irrational etc.Been there.I thought he was wrong to short so early.I wouldn't even short now and I've got a few quid saved for the punt.