Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[The Bear of Doom]

8 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I had a good discussion earlier in the week with someone about BT spitting feathers over net neutrality. BT has doubled its capacity in 2 years and more and more of it is being used by about 6 companies (youtube, facebook, netflix, nowtv, amazon video and cant remember what the other one was). Highest ever network usage was this month with the streaming football.

A few years back I went on a tour of a major BT exchange, and they had a room full of servers for Netflix and Google (presumably Youtube), which allows them to take load off the main backbone network.  Prior to the release of the next episode of a popular show it would be uploaded to these servers, and I think they would cache other popular web content on them.  I'm not sure what the financial arrangement for this setup is, but I would imagine that the content providers at least pay for rackspace.

There was some seriously expensive kit there such as ultrafast fibre routers which cost £500k each! (made by Alactel if I remember correctly).

[Presuming Ed]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I went and looked at RR stock. Amazed to see they pay no div.

Well they did for decades but they were suspended when Covid hit aviation. They've been burning through cash while planes were/are grounded. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/rolls-royce-hldg-results-cfo-idUSS8N2JN0DB

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

A few years back I went on a tour of a major BT exchange, and they had a room full of servers for Netflix and Google (presumably Youtube), which allows them to take load off the main backbone network.  Prior to the release of the next episode of a popular show it would be uploaded to these servers, and I think they would cache other popular web content on them.  I'm not sure what the financial arrangement for this setup is, but I would imagine that the content providers at least pay for rackspace.

There was some seriously expensive kit there such as ultrafast fibre routers which cost £500k each! (made by Alactel if I remember correctly).

They pay for this as a service but it still affects local service.

I think iplayer still remains central.

You can check the local caches in your net logs.

I don't know if its still true but certain mobile operators used to give free Netflix or prime etc (whatever they had collocated in their own local servers) to push people towards one streaming platform and save their network.(which they were paid for)

Alcatel kit is good kit, not the best but it is bt after all.

30 years ago bt were teaching grads that the new digital exchanges would have so much free space you would have banks and banks of laserdisc movies that people could dial up and watch and even fast forward  pause and rewind!

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

30 years ago bt were teaching grads that the new digital exchanges would have so much free space you would have banks and banks of laserdisc movies that people could dial up and watch and even fast forward  pause and rewind!

[The Bear of Doom]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

30 years ago bt were teaching grads that the new digital exchanges would have so much free space you would have banks and banks of laserdisc movies that people could dial up and watch and even fast forward  pause and rewind!

One thing the tour guide (one of the senior engineers) did say, was that as soon as they could clear a room of old kit, such as the System X exchanges, they would start installing the new fibre gear, so they were investing a lot of money in fibre capacity at that time.

They were also removing redundant copper wiring from the distribution frames under the legacy copper exchanges and filling large dumpy bags with it, so there is some slight truth in the oft-quoted statement that BT are sitting on a fortune in scrap copper.

[reformed nice guy]

9 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

BT are sitting on a fortune in scrap copper.

The new BT chief exec says there isnt as much copper as you think (but his cousins have the keys and have stripped the joint)

[Juniper]

Hi, another new poster but standard long time lurker. I couldn’t do my first post anywhere but this thread having followed @DurhamBorn from TOS where I used to lurk. Thanks to all for helping me believe I was capable (sometimes!) of investing in more than a pre-selected pension fund. I’m still a novice but I listen to a lot of financial podcasts including some paid, and have an eye on supply chain issues working for a global manufacturer so I’ll try and contribute when I can. Cheers to the best thread on the internet.

[StrugglingMillennial]

Let the bidding wars begin.

https://www.ft.com/content/4885b7f5-97a2-4e66-af91-a9211956b0f5

[Sidd]

I wonder when the big mobile / teclo operators such as EE / BT Vodafone offer free netflix, spotify etc with their mobile packages, maybe that is how they are getting them to pay for some of their high bandwidth use.

[Juniper]

Now to try and add something interesting. I’ve just listened to Felix Zulauf who’s calling for a BK in the first half of next year followed by a melt-up to a bigger peak and then bigger BK in 2024.

S&P to 3000, oil to $50 as a possibility in 2022; S&P up to 6000, oil to $200 in 2024.

It fits with lots of ideas on this thread but I’m not clear what he thinks happens after ‘24. If equities have a major crash and don’t recover can everyday inflation continue?…he says that oil hits $200 because of supply not demand (clearly following @Cattle Prod). Does oil remain high along with other inputs, increasing people’s pain, and if so can some related shares stay high even in a 1929 style crash? I refer back to my first post admission that I am a novice…

[ThoughtCriminal]

At this point we have to conclude it's deliberate.

[Ellandback]

36 minutes ago, Juniper said:

Now to try and add something interesting. I’ve just listened to Felix Zulauf who’s calling for a BK in the first half of next year followed by a melt-up to a bigger peak and then bigger BK in 2024.

S&P to 3000, oil to $50 as a possibility in 2022; S&P up to 6000, oil to $200 in 2024.

It fits with lots of ideas on this thread but I’m not clear what he thinks happens after ‘24. If equities have a major crash and don’t recover can everyday inflation continue?…he says that oil hits $200 because of supply not demand (clearly following @Cattle Prod). Does oil remain high along with other inputs, increasing people’s pain, and if so can some related shares stay high even in a 1929 style crash? I refer back to my first post admission that I am a novice…

GV has the same timings on PM equities - I dread to think how this decade turns out.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Who are people invested in in the telco space?

I'm only in Telia atm but looking to expand my sector holdings.

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

[Hancock]

35 minutes ago, Ellandback said:

GV has the same timings on PM equities - I dread to think how this decade turns out.

So long as govts have no more money to hand out to the fucken useless (themsleves and their friends) and have no more money to imprison us, then we'll be OK.

As long as you've food in your belly "and freedom" you'll be tickityboo.

 

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I went and looked at RR stock. Amazed to see they pay no div.

Well they have only just recently raised capital from shareholders, so there would be questions if they did!

[mcdongle]

1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Let the bidding wars begin.

https://www.ft.com/content/4885b7f5-97a2-4e66-af91-a9211956b0f5

Does anyone know how much is in one of those ships ,And how long would it take to use it up say in the uk?

[JREWING]

24 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At this point we have to conclude it's deliberate.

Always was deliberately motivated. Funny how BP's divvy got halved right at the beginning of this shit sandwich. Now it's SP is languishing in the what could be deemed silly price.

All orchestrated by the green machine.

F**k their shit rules, don't read news rags, don't watch TV. If you see a dick in a blue muzzle laugh at the c@nt.

As far as I'm concerned, the UK has turned into an excuse not to work due to government incompetence. I've heard of NHS workers using relatives positive tests for a no show at work. Hell knows how many others are playing the game. Not the NHS workers fault it's the clown government.

Fucking charade.

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

Apart from the (Verizon,Turkcell, Telenor) i'm backing your investments up!

Bought £1200 T today!

Remember your comment about people being addicted to their phones .... reminds me of "The Game" on Star Trek.

 

[Castlevania]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

I have the first four and Telefónica Brazil. Where I differ is that I’m younger and willing to take on a lot more risk so I also own Telecom Italia, Telecom Argentina and Airtel Africa which are on the riskier end of the scale. Airtel Africa has been a big winner, Telecom Italia and BT have done ok everything else is roughly +/- 10% before dividends.

[Hancock]

Seems as if Corona is over .... not that it ever existed in the sense we were led to believe.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/22/risk-hospitalisation-omicron-appears-two-thirds-lower-delta/

[Froggy2000]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

Thanks for the update DB.  Turkcell looks particularly interesting considering what's happening to the Turkish Lira!  I'm not sure whether its ultimately good news in terms of wiping out Lira denominated debt, or whether its bad because the Turkish economy will unfortunately go down the toilet (again).

[Axeman123]

46 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Seems as if Corona is over

That would be the starting pistol for Dave Hunter's melt-up, assuming every government gets the same memo.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

That would be the starting pistol for Dave Hunter's melt-up, assuming every government gets the same memo.

Exactly my thoughts

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Seems as if Corona is over .... not that it ever existed in the sense we were led to believe.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/22/risk-hospitalisation-omicron-appears-two-thirds-lower-delta/

No.  They haven't got enough needles in arms and compliance for surveillance yet, in my view.  There will be some scarey varient in Q1-2 2022 which drives enforcement further.  Mandating boosters (as per Israel and is being pushed in Australia).

[Hancock]

Anyone buying (or able to buy AMLP?

Edit look like Alerian Midstream Energy Dividend UCITS ETF is the EU version.

https://www.alpsfunds.com/products/etf/AMLP