Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, arrow said:

Overheard a conversation at work. Someone's wife is a teacher. According to this "work colleague", the best teachers are those who barely passed their exams and weren't good at the subject. The worst teachers are those who know their field inside out. He said that the teachers at this wife's school all thought the same. Puzzled me as I thought the best in their field are the ones who write the text books. Still remember watching the OU programmes many moons ago when they were on bbc2 or early in the morning. As a kid, it was so easy to understand matrices, geometry, etc when the presenters were committed, excellent academics. I thought why can't my school teachers explain things so clearly. Now, I have to do the same as you Cattle Prod. Buying textbooks and teaching my kids. It used to make me despair when I knew more maths than the teacher but now I accept it

Ahhh, I come across this now and again.

This probably applies to most people here...you know how you doubt yourself, your ability, how others perceive you....well, that's normal.

On the other hand, some people suffer from the Dunning Kruger Effect....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

"The Dunning–Kruger effect is the cognitive bias whereby people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability"

A friend of mine who studied psychology says, first thing they do try find out if you are mad is to ask you if you are mad.  Only mad people say no !!!  

Try it, see what the people at work say

[janch]

47 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

if they don't use up the budget they won't get the same next year

This is the normal state of affairs across all of government as far as ai know and has been for years.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, janch said:

This is the normal state of affairs across all of government as far as ai know and has been for years.

And a lot of companies.

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Or government interference....look what they did in the UK in the late 80s/early 90s i.e. National Curriculum...you had government ministers and academic experts [who between them had never done a days practical teaching] telling experience, time served teachers 'how its done'...no wonder so many left and they had [and still have] trouble recruiting teachers.

In the 90's under Blair the government decided everyone had to do one technology subject when taking their options in year 9, however the school I was at didn't have enough woodwork / metalwork kitted out classrooms or teachers.

I was off the week the letter went home, so by the time I returned it all the woodwork and metalwork classes were full. So the head of year burst into the lesson I was in and announced as punishment for being off farming I HAD to do food technology.

I asked him to explain to me and the rest of the class how 2 years in a class with the better looking lasses in the year was supposed to be a punishment. He slammed the class room door and stormed off. I learned how to cook and had a very good time with one of the better looking lasses who was out of my league for the next two years. 

[CannonFodder]

There was a time that talented females had very few options and teaching was one of those options. a womans place was assumed by society to be connected to children 

Intelligent and wanting to do something mentally stimulating then teaching was the route.

As the private sector has opened up and society changed, teacher intake has suffered as candidates have better options now. 

[AWW]

Forget professional teachers.  The best learning resources are all on the internet now, and most of them are free.

If you want to get your kids into the beauty of maths, this guy is excellent: https://www.youtube.com/c/3blue1brown

My favourites:

 

[AWW]

And if they're vaguely into physics, the Feynman lectures. What a bloke.

[HousePriceMania]

@AWW, thanks for posting that because a) the 1st Pi video is amazing and b) its good to remind myself how thick most of us.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

That;s what I assumed you meant by rotation stock !!!  Have you invented a new phrase ?

After replying earlier just stumbled across True Contrarian's 17th Jan update and he mentions ;rotation'.

Quote

 

The bottom line: we have stealthily entered a meaningful rotation out of large-cap deflation-loving U.S. growth shares into small- and mid-cap inflation-loving global value shares. The ideal approach is to gradually purchase assets where their rate of profit growth exceed their price-earnings ratios by the widest ratios and where there is a history of outperformance by those shares under similar past circumstances. Too few investors are intelligently using 1929-1930, 1973, and 2000-2001 as a guide to 2022.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

 

All you need now is list of the firms to buy!

[Noallegiance]

33 minutes ago, AWW said:

And if they're vaguely into physics, the Feynman lectures. What a bloke.

His explanations are legendary. 

Like answering what happens in a mirror?

Or how trains go round bends!

[Noallegiance]

Back on topic - is there still confusion around DHs oil lower call?

If his call is markedly lower dollar and oil is priced in dollars with reduced supply.....?

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

After replying earlier just stumbled across True Contrarian's 17th Jan update and he mentions ;rotation'.

All you need now is list of the firms to buy!

I think that should become more and more obvious as we go along.

 

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

His explanations are legendary. 

Like answering what happens in a mirror?

Or how trains go round bends!

Or how they dont ?

[HousePriceMania]

Is everyone watching the US tech stocks ?

Apple Inc

158.11 USD−3.51 (2.17%)today

Amazon.com, Inc.

2,783.60 USD−107.28 (3.71%)today

Tesla Inc

906.71 USD−23.29 (2.50%)today

Microsoft Corporation

287.02 USD−9.35 (3.15%)today

Meta Platforms Inc

300.42 USD−8.29 (2.69%)today

Peloton Interactive Inc

26.94 USD−2.77 (9.32%)today

 

 Zoom Video Communications Inc

144.43 USD−5.89 (3.92%)today

Peloton Interactive Inc

26.92 USD−2.79 (9.41%)today

 Twitter Inc

33.83 USD−1.23 (3.51%)today

 

And 2 from the motley fools top 5 socail media shares

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/communication/social-media-stocks/
 

Bumble Inc

27.83 USD−1.62 (5.50%)today

 

Match Group Inc

112.30 USD−4.95 (4.22%)today

 

Meanwhile, back in the real physical world....

 

 Exxon Mobil Corp

74.42 USD+1.59 (2.18%)today

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

In True Contrarian's post I quoted earlier, he mentions he has cash in "I Bonds", sounds like our Index Linked Certificates, that our thieving scum have withdrawn from sale years ago.

I Bonds:

What interest does an I bond earn?

A combination of a fixed rate that stays the same for the life of the bond and an inflation rate that is set twice a year. For bonds issued from November 2021 through April 2022, the combined rate is 7.12%.

 

 

[Heart's Ease]

On 21/01/2022 at 08:00, geordie_lurch said:

I'm sorry that figure is just nonsense. Storage fees at an insurance approved would be £150 per month max and most only use them over winter as they want to actually use them over summer.

MOTs are standard prices unless you have one over 3500kg and the same as servicing them.

Habitation checks are usually only done when buying or selling by most people but if not then £100 max.

Finally the people who can afford these motorhomes will usually be over 40 and probably have lots of no claims so given all that I'd say you are looking at around £1500 per year max

 

Been away for a few days Geordie but wanted to come back on this.  Had a look at our 19-20 figures and they came out as follows or thereabouts:

Annual storage 400, Insurance 650, Hab check 250, Service 350, MOT 60, Tax 260

So just shy of £2k for us.  Mea Culpa on the £3k which I have gone back and figured out was our annual 'rule of thumb' set aside including other expected (and unexpected costs) but before fuel, site fees etc.  We took a hit in 2019 getting water ingress sorted and that absorbed most of the contingency.  

Have used a main dealer for our Motorhome hab check/service/MOT, hence the cost, although if I had a beat up panel van it would be going through our local garage/no hab check.

I have a few bits of information I've picked up recently on the motorhome market so will put them in the bowels as not to o/t this thread.

[geordie_lurch]

22 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Been away for a few days Geordie but wanted to come back on this.  Had a look at our 19-20 figures and they came out as follows or thereabouts:

Annual storage 400, Insurance 650, Hab check 250, Service 350, MOT 60, Tax 260

So just shy of £2k for us.  Mea Culpa on the £3k which I have gone back and figured out was our annual 'rule of thumb' set aside including other expected (and unexpected costs) but before fuel, site fees etc.  We took a hit in 2019 getting water ingress sorted and that absorbed most of the contingency.  

Have used a main dealer for our Motorhome hab check/service/MOT, hence the cost, although if I had a beat up panel van it would be going through our local garage/no hab check.

I have a few bits of information I've picked up recently on the motorhome market so will put them in the bowels as not to o/t this thread.

I'd say £2000 is good as a working figure @Heart's Ease if you want to get the annual habitation check and keep it in storage full time but can be done much cheaper if not which is why I posted to try and not scare people off. Btw your insurance sounds expensive if you are over 40 and don't have any points or convictions

[ONC]

Love the math videos @AWW

just a few points on teaching your kids maths. My son has only just turned 8, have been very deliberately teaching him maths since he was 4. What I learned was

1. Young kids are amazingly clever, they can pick up complex maths very easily. Do not underestimate them. The problem is getting them motivated 

2. The trick i use is “maths for iPad”. Basically bribery.

3. I do 15min, most days. I think short lessons but lots of them.

4. I brought a small white board and lots of coloured pens. 
 

5. Use ‘brilliant” app. Which helps but is £80. Though as AWW says lots of great stuff on internet free.

I think my son would already pass his GCSE now. Eg he can derive the solution to quadratic  equation himself.

As @Cattle Prodsays, given how poorly maths in taught at school, anyone with good maths is at an advantage.

 

[CannonFodder]

This seems an interesting link, over 94% chance of holding rates they say

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html#

Edit to say if you click on different meeting dates, you get those odds too

[Transistor Man]

49 minutes ago, ONC said:

I think my son would already pass his GCSE now. Eg he can derive the solution to quadratic  equation himself.

(OT)

At 8? Very good. By completing-the-square? That’s good going if he understands that level. 

 

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

This seems an interesting link, over 94% chance of holding rates they say

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html#

Wall street are taking the piss.

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wall street are taking the piss.

Thats what i dont get, they talk of raising rates rapidly but nothing for this week.

Anyway Nel Hydrogen which was mentioned on here as a good long term bet is back to pre covid prices.

[HousePriceMania]

13 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Thats what i dont get, they talk of raising rates rapidly but nothing for this week.

Anyway Nel Hydrogen which was mentioned on here as a good long term bet is back to pre covid prices.

I think it's a bit like the BoE, they wouldnt do it till they'd handed hte bankers all the money they'd be promised !!!

 

Anyway, in a remarkable turnaround, the nasdaq is now up !!!

[HousePriceMania]

18 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Thats what i dont get, they talk of raising rates rapidly but nothing for this week.

Anyway Nel Hydrogen which was mentioned on here as a good long term bet is back to pre covid prices.

Nel ASA

1.11 EUR−0.11 (9.13%)today 

 

Is there something going wrong with it ?

I think most of the stocks that shot up will show that sort of pattern in the end.

[Libspero]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Nel ASA

1.11 EUR−0.11 (9.13%)today 

I followed ITM Power for a while..  put a bit in at 150,  then bottled it and sold at 300.  Regretted not hanging on longer.    Looking again now down at 254 again 

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I followed ITM Power for a while..  put a bit in at 150,  then bottled it and sold at 300.  Regretted not hanging on longer.    Looking again now down at 254 again 

Sharp drop, following that pattern...massive increase in price, now heading back to 2020 prices.