Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

https://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chinas-russian-coal-purchases-stall-as-buyers-struggle-to-secure-financing-2595011

[Majorpain]

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 Polymetal International PLC

268.90 GBX−82.30 (23.43%)today

1 Mar, 09:47 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: POLY

 

 

If BlackCock knows something we dont then I wish they'd hurry up and tell us all.

Ran their updated stats through my spreadsheet and the ratio is still not in complete banana republic territory, merely African.  I think that its going to start with a 1 at end of week, at least anyone suffering can take solace that Blackrock are nursing a paper loss of hundreds of millions.  

7 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

This is a long bow in ordinary times but given gofundme donors are domestic terrorists is it not possible that people buying Soviet linked shares could be singled out in the same way?

Soviet??!!  

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Ive been to Vegas three times and never gambled once.
Probably comes from having a summer and student job working in a bookies. Work the other side of the counter and its obvious who the winners are.

I made comments earlier in the thread about the spread on poly and it reminded me of the time you couldnt buy gold/silver anywhere when the price dropped through the floor.

The house always wins. Im not surprised DB is putting money into the fund managers (that is not investment advice from me btw).

I've been once and wouldn't go back, lost a dollar on a slot machine. 

I thought it was a particularly sad place, women stood in their wedding dresses gambling at 5 am as we left to go to the Grand Canyon, shops offering to cash pay cheques, leaflets for "escorts" everywhere.  I'd rather go to Amsterdam and chuck my money in the bin as I arrive. 

[Sugarlips]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Ran their updated stats through my spreadsheet and the ratio is still not in complete banana republic territory, merely African.  I think that its going to start with a 1 at end of week, at least anyone suffering can take solace that Blackrock are nursing a paper loss of hundreds of millions.  

Soviet??!!  

Apologies I’m a little old fashioned 

[Noallegiance]

This thread provides joviality not to be found elsewhere.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Which is a good point, the dividend must be in Dollars, so by refusing the dividend BP is making Rosneft/Russian Govt's life a lot easier by not draining some of its much more limited Dollar reserves!

So what are you thinking, that BP whilst being seen to do the right thing are 'playing the long game' regarding Russia, and thinking that 'favours' will be repaid in the future?...i

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

This thread provides joviality not to be found elsewhere.

Same as the local bookies.

[Democorruptcy]

48 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

That jap fund has 10% in scotia canada bank.

https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheet-data/factsheet/GB0003165817-jpmorgan-japan-small-cap-gi-plc/portfolio

That's dated 31st Dec and not in the HL list but there's no date there

[HousePriceMania]

Anyone still laddering into Poly ?

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Keep in mind, the purchase was made before or on the 25th when Poly was still flying relatively high in low-mid 700s. They are 50% down on their investment already.
https://www.polymetalinternational.com/upload/iblock/809/2022_03_01_TR-1_(Blackrock)_eng.pdf

They were fuming they were in the red at 1100 so bought the 700 to bring their average price down to 900, to try escape quicker. If they double their holding at 300 they can get their escape average down to 600!

[23rdian]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

They were fuming they were in the red at 1100 so bought the 700 to bring their average price down to 900, to try escape quicker. If they double their holding at 300 they can get their escape average down to 600!

Hey that's been my strategy. Saying something wrong with it?

[belfastchild]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone still laddering into Poly ?

Not unless I get another bounce back loan!

[MrXxxx]

19 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone still laddering into Poly ?

No, the difference there is that has the potential to be a bottomless pit!

[leonardratso]

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

That's dated 31st Dec and not in the HL list but there's no date there

ah so i see, good spot. maybe they got shot of it or it never was there.

anyway i rang lloyds, they just said feck off its fucked, well, not in so many words, but they said their dealers were looking at it to try and see what they can do as an alternative, so basically looks like counter party moscow isnt dealing, might come back might not,

In other news EVRAZ is fine since its a uk co.

Fine if you like 80% loss that is.

Wheres poly in all this?

[leonardratso]

so for now, ill have to write off gazp, put in the bad list there will you, add it to ukog, but hang on just take cna out for now.

 

[planit]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

A part of the reason for BP and Shell getting rid of Russian assets. They'd have had a larger share price decline keeping hold of them in the short term as woke investment groups sell shares they hold on behalf of others as a loss. Easy to take a loss with other people's money.

Agree with others that it is nuts for the Government to encourage business to give away assets.

 

I have been thinking about the comments regarding gambling or investing.

I don't like to think of myself as a gambler but a couple of my key investing techniques are 

 

• Weigh up risks better than the market effectively in times of an emotionally driven market
• Make use of anti-woke thinking to profit from 'woke idiots' (in quotes as it might be me who is the idiot)

 

When I stood back and looked at this it's clear I need to make bold decisions now in things like POLY. After weighing up the information available to me; it is high risk geopolitically but the company is not Russian (so there is some value) and there seems to be woke virtue signalling going on by woke fund managers and woke politicians who are willing to lose other people's money for 'the cause'.

 

I had the opportunity to swap 403 shares in TGA with 985 shares in POLY today which I did.

One month ago I would have got 168 POLY shares.

 

This morning I was 17% down in my portfolio from my Jan 20th peak and my average cost per POLY share is now 575p.

Today currently further 3% down.

[MrXxxx]

19 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

They were fuming they were in the red at 1100 so bought the 700 to bring their average price down to 900, to try escape quicker. If they double their holding at 300 they can get their escape average down to 600!

Wrong!...they bought the second trance as the [potential] divi yield had increased by ~60%!

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ah so i see, good spot. maybe they got shot of it or it never was there.

The strange thing is that the top few holdings are identical %'s at both. Surely buying or selling what would be their largest holding, hasn't also changed those %'s?

[Noallegiance]

55 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I think that its going to start with a 1 at end of week,

Trigger finger poised over Gazprom if that gets to $1.xx.

It touched into it today.

What a buy that would be, asset-wise.

Morally questionable, but they're going to be fine long-term even if they sell zero product to the west. They'll do what they're going to do with or without my £s anyway.

If western investors aren't allowed to hold it, so be it. 

But if they are it's a company that produces the stuff that this thread is all about. And it's a solid dividend payer that's 70% off right now.

[Democorruptcy]

14 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Hey that's been my strategy. Saying something wrong with it?

It can result in escape (or even profit) sometimes. Others well....

[Metalheadz]

Anyone buying/own something in Aluminium? I'm looking for something that hasn't already turned in to a meme stock 

(apologies in advance for mentioning something that isn't dropping 50% each day)

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The strange thing is that the top few holdings are identical %'s at both. Surely buying or selling what would be their largest holding, hasn't also changed those %'s?

hmm lloyds data says;

https://www.investments.lloydsbank.com/investment-trust-centre/details/GB0003165817/JE95

Top 10 Holdings

Top 10 Holdings

Security	Weight
Mec co	3.40%
Raito kogyo co	3.20%
Benefit one inc	3.00%
Taiyo yuden co	2.80%
Litalico inc	2.60%
Monogatari corp	2.50%
Iriso electronics co	2.30%
Visional inc	2.20%
Raksul inc	2.10%
Cosmos pharmaceutical corp	1.90%

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, planit said:

When I stood back and looked at this it's clear I need to make bold decisions now in things like POLY

Exactly, everyone's a contrarian till they get smacked in the face

[HousePriceMania]

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

maybe they bought POLY on the dip, with side orders of EVR and gazprom