Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[honkydonkey]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Since when we’re the ‘experts’ right?

My opinion bullwhip effect. Demand evaporates for everything but essentials.

In return production reduces but inflation remains high due to costs and labour prices.  (Stagflation). Energy costs and ridiculous restrictions on farmers (aka Dutch) will ensure inflation remains in an inflationary spiral.

Who’s going to be paying £9.25 for branded butter even with bennie and state pension uplifts?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lurpak-butter-iceland-sainsbury-inflation-b2115864.html?amp

That's a 1kg size. I buy my butter in 250g, so that's £2.34 a pack. A little on the high side but it's probably from a Tesco express or something, but for branded it's not extortionate.

[Plan-b]

And another one bites the dust ....

 

[Barnsey]

Isn’t Zahawi the second wealthiest MP in the UK after Sunak?

[One percent]

12 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Since when we’re the ‘experts’ right?

My opinion bullwhip effect. Demand evaporates for everything but essentials.

In return production reduces but inflation remains high due to costs and labour prices.  (Stagflation). Energy costs and ridiculous restrictions on farmers (aka Dutch) will ensure inflation remains in an inflationary spiral.

Who’s going to be paying £9.25 for branded butter even with bennie and state pension uplifts?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lurpak-butter-iceland-sainsbury-inflation-b2115864.html?amp

Making your own butter seems easy. I’ll give it a go 

https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/recipes/home-churned-butter

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Isn’t Zahawi the second wealthiest MP in the UK after Sunak?

He also owns propaganda "pollster" YouGov.

 

Make no mistake, he is a deepstate piece of shit. You wouldn't want him in charge of running your bath, let alone the economy.

[DoINeedOne]

3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Isn’t Zahawi the second wealthiest MP in the UK after Sunak?

Posted this nearly a year ago, as far as i aware its accurate

 

Nadhim Zahawi also started YouGov 

His wife Mrs Zahawi’s firm purchased the £3.5m Channel industrial estate in Ashford, Kent, by the Eurotunnel train station. It was bought mortgage-free days before the Government secured the trade deal with the EU in December.

He also was part of a company SThree who got alot NHS contracts 

And also set up a medical company "Warren Medical Ltd" which doesn't seem like it got use for anything maybe because people started asking questions he said it was for a property deal just before becoming the Vaccines minister 

 

I bet a good deep dive on him would be amazing 

 

Fair play but sometimes you have to wonder..... who's the idiot 

[Plan-b]

It seems for now that the resignations are for Boris's failure to act on the claims of sexual misconduct earlier in the week.

NOT because they have been shit as a government in the face of inflation, housing, bennies, energy........

FFS

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fboris-johnson-chris-pincher-tory-staff-b2115115.html

[DoINeedOne]

10 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

 

The market believes it actually makes a difference who is driving the bus off the cliff!?

Boris hanging on

[Barnsey]

36 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He also owns propaganda "pollster" YouGov.

 

Make no mistake, he is a deepstate piece of shit. You wouldn't want him in charge of running your bath, let alone the economy.

The sooner Rachel Reeves is in the better. From her wiki page (must read)

Appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in 2013, Reeves proposed that anyone unemployed for two years, or one year if under 25 years old, would be required to take a guaranteed job or lose access to benefits. She caused controversy within the Labour Party by stating Labour would be "tougher" than the Conservative Party in cutting the benefits bill.^[29] She caused further controversy in early 2015 by stating "We [Labour] don’t want to be seen, and we're not, the party to represent those who are out of work".^[30]

In an interview with the Financial Times, outlining her forthcoming speech in Bury on strengthening the economy, Reeves said a Starmer government would be pro-business and committed to fiscal discipline. She said Britain had seen a Japanese-style Lost Decades of growth, which she said a Labour government would reverse through following fiscal rules and eliminating borrowing for day-to-day spending, with no unfunded election spending commitments. This she asserted would enable government capital spending, above the current 3% of GDP per year limit, to promote growth. Labour would be both pro-worker and pro-business. Reeves did not think Britain would rejoin European Union or its single market in the next 50 years. She said she was against the return of freedom of movement for workers between the UK and EU.^[38][39]

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Reeves}

 

[Sugarlips]

33 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Seems to be a consensus building amongst financial "experts" that inflation is going to plunge over the next 12 months.

 

Where do you have it on the roadmap @DurhamBorn?

A lot of the pundits I listen to are thinking inflation goes down here due to demand destruction then way way up - Weimar style.

And anyone celebrating this mornings market recovery should listen to Greg for a reality check..

 

[Lightscribe]

14 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

That's a 1kg size. I buy my butter in 250g, so that's £2.34 a pack. A little on the high side but it's probably from a Tesco express or something, but for branded it's not extortionate.

I’ll stick to Aldi’s Nordpak, works out £4.30 for 1kg and tastes pretty much indistinguishable.

https://groceries.aldi.co.uk/en-GB/p-nordpak-spreadable-slightly-salted-500g/4088600041445

[Lightscribe]

9 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

It seems for now that the resignations are for Boris's failure to act on the claims of sexual misconduct earlier in the week.

NOT because they have been shit as a government in the face of inflation, housing, bennies, energy........

FFS

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fboris-johnson-chris-pincher-tory-staff-b2115115.html

As predicted 

 

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Seems to be a consensus building amongst financial "experts" that inflation is going to plunge over the next 12 months.

 

Where do you have it on the roadmap @DurhamBorn?

From 3.5 years ago i had around 11.6% top out this year then down to 7.2%,then 5.5%,4.9% the rest fuzzy but between 60% and 70% compounded for the cycle.I care more about the total than the yearlies.Our stocks gain more from steady because wages lag the inflation.BT puts price up with inflation,but wages and contracted services only go up between 6 months and 12 months later etc.Thats why our areas stuff bubble tech.Amaons prices mostly go up before they can sell the service etc.

[feed]

Why not pay £10 for 1kg of butter..  
It’s 7000 calories for 1 hours min wage labour.  i.e. Cheap.  

 

 

[Majorpain]

23 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He also owns propaganda "pollster" YouGov.

 

Make no mistake, he is a deepstate piece of shit. You wouldn't want him in charge of running your bath, let alone the economy.

Sounds like the perfect fall guy for when the economy goes off the cliff then!

[belfastchild]

Something has been bugging me all morning.
Im not concerned about the people, everyone is focussing on the people.
Chancellor and health secretary jump off the titanic. What have they seen?
It cant be just prospects of power cuts this weekend (which are receeding).
Its the tell the truth bit of Sunaks letter that interests me. Probably nothing that hasnt been discussed before on this thread.

[CannonFodder]

 

 

 

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Who’s going to be paying £9.25 for branded butter even with bennie and state pension uplifts?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lurpak-butter-iceland-sainsbury-inflation-b2115864.html?amp

That's a kg, though.

If it was £2.33 for a more usual 250g pack, would anyone bat an eyelid?

(still expensive, might as well buy butter, but even so).

[DoINeedOne]

25 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Something has been bugging me all morning.
Im not concerned about the people, everyone is focussing on the people.
Chancellor and health secretary jump off the titanic. What have they seen?
It cant be just prospects of power cuts this weekend (which are receeding).
Its the tell the truth bit of Sunaks letter that interests me. Probably nothing that hasnt been discussed before on this thread.

To be honest thats why i decided to try and switch off last night,  because my mind was also wondering they don't want to be around when everything's on fire, they are positioning themselves to say see we told you

[Democorruptcy]

41 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Something has been bugging me all morning.
Im not concerned about the people, everyone is focussing on the people.
Chancellor and health secretary jump off the titanic. What have they seen?
It cant be just prospects of power cuts this weekend (which are receeding).
Its the tell the truth bit of Sunaks letter that interests me. Probably nothing that hasnt been discussed before on this thread.

Maybe he meant that people have to stop thinking we are one of the wealthiest countries in the world and can spend spend spend because he's seen our true credit card bill?

[feed]

Or they’re positioning themselves for the leadership challenge. Their odds on being next PM halved last night. 

Rishi 13 to 6 / 7 

Javid 25 or so to 13   
 

[Lightscribe]

25 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

That's a kg, though.

If it was £2.33 for a more usual 250g pack, would anyone bat an eyelid?

(still expensive, might as well buy butter, but even so).

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10982919/amp/Sainsburys-chief-warns-pressure-budgets-Lurpak-butter-price-goes-5-90-7-25.html
 

It’s more the fact of speed of increase, £7 1kg in 2021. 

There’s a visual and psychological milestone, of the likes of 1kg butter reaching £10.

That combined with the other factors like security tags on cheese due to the price rises will cause people to tighten purse strings especially when added up and they see the real differences in weekly shop costs.

Luxuries get the elbow first, steaks, roast joints, lamb etc which reduces demand so production drops in response.

[DurhamBorn]

50 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Something has been bugging me all morning.
Im not concerned about the people, everyone is focussing on the people.
Chancellor and health secretary jump off the titanic. What have they seen?
It cant be just prospects of power cuts this weekend (which are receeding).
Its the tell the truth bit of Sunaks letter that interests me. Probably nothing that hasnt been discussed before on this thread.

My roadmap? Systemic collapse if they carry on with Bojo's everything will be fine attitude.Dishi know the public sector and bennies are out of control whatever his faults.

[DurhamBorn]

45 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

 

 

Always reminds me of a girl i dated.Her dad went to school with my dad,quiet,nice man but hard as nails,and i mean youd have to kill him hard.He lost his return bus ticket when he went to show it on the bus.Driver wouldnt let him on so he sat in seat and refused to get off.Next thing two coppers arrived and set a police dog on him.He strangled it to death.Judge let him off and gave him small token compo saying he had every right to defend himself from the dog given it was only over a bus ticket and he had shown no violence towards the driver or police and reprimanded the police.Every time he walked in the pub someone used to make a bark then whining death noise ,he used to say who did that with his fist clenched ,just joking,he took it with a smile.The west needs all its men to be like him again and it seems the struggle is starting now.

[Barnsey]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My roadmap? Systemic collapse if they carry on with Bojo's everything will be fine attitude.Dishi know the public sector and bennies are out of control whatever his faults.

As I highlighted, as hard as it may be to believe from a Labour MP, Rachel Reeves is determined to make work pay. Bennie campaigner groups hate her. No coincidence that her other half is Director General for Finance at Department for Work and Pensions.