Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

 

Anyone see the RAF bollocks this week? Going to pause recruitment of heterosexual white men until ethnics, gays and women catch up.

 

Who are the competent people that fly the planes and keep them up there? Straight white men.

 

They even sent a memo asking for the pilot that went to the Top Gun premiere not to be a straight white male.

 

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

 

My boss in the prison service once made three women form a cell extraction team when a con had made weapons and threatened to kill first officer through the door. Took me off the shield, my usual role as I'm a big lump, and said "These fuckers get paid the same as him. They can do it".

 

Two started crying. They went in and he threw them out the cell, one by one, they literally went skidding across the floor of the wing like a cartoon. Point was made, so then we went in and put him through the wall.

 

Don't ever forget that this country isnt what you think it is. The whole facade can come down at any time.

 

Off topic? Maybe, but I'd argue it applies across the board. This is a tired, creaking country and the rot runs deep. Most of us are on the Right and patriotic so it's easy to overlook things.

 

I maybe didn't frame my point that well as it pisses me off just thinking about what's been done to this country.

 

As was just said by (I think) JMD, who is confident of having all of their eggs in the UK basket? My confidence in the UK making it out the other side of this turning point (as history will judge it) diminishes by the day.

 

I lean more and more to what DB said about having exposure to foreign earning stocks. 

The problem is future pension liability.

These chickens are now landing to roost.

Im not sure what the average public sector pension liability  is - ~40% of pay.

UKGOV has been kidding itself and paying 10% + 10% employees contributions for wayy too long, much longer (2000) when the cost of DB was clear.

The TPS is bandying figures of 40% around. The reality is even worse as that what the pension contribution would cost. However, theyve not been paying that level, so LA pension contrib are going to shoot up to pay for the shortfall.

The problem is made even worse as there  are a very large number of females on the public sector payroll. typically these cost ~20% more than blokes - that extra ~5 years life expectancy is v expensive.

The actual worse, biggest shortfall is female coppers - pension contribution needs to be around 100% of salary.

The rapid increase and rise to 67 for male + female SRA pension by Gidiot was a quick response to the really terrible figures/projection that were rolling in, after that one eyed cretin ignored them for 16 years.

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Pound taking a battering today. I wonder how far it can fall over the coming months?

[Chewing Grass]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.300 years of coal under my feet.We have no energy crisis,we have a politician and liberal elite crisis destroying us.They should be sinking shafts here now,but with all the regs etc it would take years.My great grandads generation were sinking drifts around here in a few months.

My home town was one of the most important in the industrial revolution,we invented the railways,first passenger train ever left the town.Now its 80% bennies.Shocking.

I'm sat next to a 2000MW coal station that was perfectly serviceable when they shut it down 18 months ago, it isn't now.

If they hadn't made that stupid globo-politicised decision the lights probably wouldn't go out this winter and electricity bills would be 5% lower.

[ThoughtCriminal]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Its all down to state pensions in payment and bennies.Too much tax being paid by companies and workers so the reward to the workers and the owners of capital too low.The Scottish share a prime example.The government pushed their margin so low they couldnt invest.I worked out the difference to have a much stronger industry was around £12 a month on a bill,so then £120 instead of £108.Instead government chose to hammer them and give half the country not producing anything that saving.Now of course that £12 is £300 due to those actions.All consumption ends up destructive,the key is how much investment alongside it.We tilted for 20 years to where over 50% of the population was simply consuming,not producing.Imagine if 1/3 of the welfare budger and 1/3 of the in payment state pensions had gone into energy,water etc,£50 billion a year,or £1 trillion over the 20 years.Instead it was consumed and the only place the money used was saved was into house and foreign countries where we bought the goods.

I'd like this 100 times if I could.

 

We've lived on credit for too long and become so used to it that we think we can go on borrowing from the future and Chinese etc labour.

 

That's coming to an end now.

 

Sometimes I think that we on here, for all that we're intelligent, forget that barely anyone thinks the way we do. That's why I'm so pessimistic.

[Jay]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.300 years of coal under my feet.We have no energy crisis,we have a politician and liberal elite crisis destroying us.They should be sinking shafts here now,but with all the regs etc it would take years.My great grandads generation were sinking drifts around here in a few months.

My home town was one of the most important in the industrial revolution,we invented the railways,first passenger train ever left the town.Now its 80% bennies.Shocking.

I hope you are exaggerating..80% ..but probably not..you talk of collapse….would collapse mean a within Britain or would you classify the break up of Britain as a collapse..I think cable was 1.7 during the last referendum.. would make sense for the scots to try again..the possibility of independent Scotland seem to be increasing imo especially as I think we get to deflation..even the welsh go there own..that for me would a collapse and not for others…that would mean England gets the bulk of the problems economically.. would have no choice but to cut benefits, pensions etc..be lucky..

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'd like this 100 times if I could.

 

We've lived on credit for too long and become so used to it that we think we can go on borrowing from the future and Chinese etc labour.

 

That's coming to an end now.

 

Sometimes I think that we on here, for all that we're intelligent, forget that barely anyone thinks the way we do. That's why I'm so pessimistic.

They could have ended the Covid nonsense swiftly if they wanted and we are now seeing the same thing with this climate change bullshit.

We are governed by psychopaths. 

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Pound taking a battering today. I wonder how far it can fall over the coming months?

We have to hope there is a line in the sand already drawn for an emergency rate rise. Other posters have previously posted that the chart looks set for a big drop, if it fell much below (iirc) 1.20usd.

Today could be the day, one way or the other.

[spygirl]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Pound taking a battering today. I wonder how far it can fall over the coming months?

It falling as the reality of how far behind the BoE on raising IR is coming more clear.

Cretins at the BoE need to be looking at a couple of 1% rises, just to get the market back on their side/surprise them.

 

 

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

It falling as the reality of how far behind the BoE on raising IR is coming more clear.

Cretins at the BoE need to be looking at a couple of 1% rises, just to get the market back on their side/surprise them.

Luke Gromen's words spring to mind; something like emerging market crisis requires emerging market solutions. The BoE need to actively burn cable shorters through rate rise warfare, and cultivate a culture of intimidation through unpredictable snap rate rises.

[feed]

Clock is ticking. 

Berlin should negotiate gas with Russia to secure supply - official

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Berlin-should-negotiate-gas-with-Russia-to-secure-supply-official/58469233

Bundestag Chairman of the Committee on Climate Protection and Energy Klaus Ernst (pictured) underscored on Friday that it is "wise" for Germany to negotiate with Russia to secure the country's gas supply which would effectively lower the prices.

"Leading politicians in the ruling parties also join my position," stressed Ernst on his Twitter account, adding that such a shift toward Berlin-Moscow dialogue would also enable the nation to avoid the effects of its own sanctions against Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier said that the federal government plans to temporarily lower the sales tax on gas to 7% for its consumers, while the country prepares to connect liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuettel to the gas network.

[spygirl]

9 minutes ago, Jay said:

I hope you are exaggerating..80% ..but probably not..you talk of collapse….would collapse mean a within Britain or would you classify the break up of Britain as a collapse..I think cable was 1.7 during the last referendum.. would make sense for the scots to try again..the possibility of independent Scotland seem to be increasing imo especially as I think we get to deflation..even the welsh go there own..that for me would a collapse and not for others…that would mean England gets the bulk of the problems economically.. would have no choice but to cut benefits, pensions etc..be lucky..

https://www.statista.com/statistics/382858/uk-state-benefits-by-region/

Official 60%.

However ...

With benefits theres also a large number of public sector employment - to 'do stuff for people on benefits.

2 scum family support 1 social worker.

 

 

[marceau]

52 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

@sancho panza @ThoughtCriminal

Just think what replacing that pool of 20-30 years experienced people would cost, effectively priceless. Same in all areas of life. These last few years of stupid hiring will take the country decades to recover from.

More likely we won't recover from it at all. People aren't robots. They're not interchangable, reprogrammable or unemotional. For some reason the govt seems to think they are and just a few changes to a policy or process can get things back on track. They're very, very wrong.

Imo this is the real killer we face further down the line. A govt in trouble, falling back to pull on old forgotten levers, and finding they no longer work. You can't make a large UK city do the things it could do during the 1970s, let alone WW2, the people there are different now. It'll be the same with reshoring, infrastructure renewal etc. For all our millions in population growth there just isn't enough human clay.

[spygirl]

12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

They could have ended the Covid nonsense swiftly if they wanted and we are now seeing the same thing with this climate change bullshit.

We are governed by psychopaths. 

No.

We have a very large governance sector which just fail to govern.

Governments need to make decisions.

 The more people a government employ, the slower n worse the decisions are.

There was this crap on the radio -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62598309

The NHS Confederation said the UK was facing a "humanitarian crisis".

A large part of the fix is - remove access to benefit s to migrant.s

Poof! ~5m cold brown n black people will fuck off home

Its down to the lobbying and bling eye turning in the public sector that so many migrants are drawing down vast sums from UK tax payers.

 

 

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

More likely we won't recover from it at all. People aren't robots. They're not interchangable, reprogrammable or unemotional. For some reason the govt seems to think they are and just a few changes to a policy or process can get things back on track. They're very, very wrong.

Imo this is the real killer we face further down the line. A govt in trouble, falling back to pull on old forgotten levers, and finding they no longer work. You can't make a large UK city do the things it could do during the 1970s, let alone WW2, the people there are different now. It'll be the same with reshoring, infrastructure renewal etc. For all our millions in population growth there just isn't enough human clay.

No, people adapt.

Just slash benefits and theyll adapt.

 

[marceau]

7 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Luke Gromen's words spring to mind; something like emerging market crisis requires emerging market solutions. The BoE need to actively burn cable shorters through rate rise warfare, and cultivate a culture of intimidation through unpredictable snap rate rises.

The longer they lag reality, the more likely it'll require shock treatment to solve. Just the last few months of rate stupidity has made the hole bigger than it needed to be.

[spygirl]

16 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Luke Gromen's words spring to mind; something like emerging market crisis requires emerging market solutions. The BoE need to actively burn cable shorters through rate rise warfare, and cultivate a culture of intimidation through unpredictable snap rate rises.

If you give forward guidance then youll get traded against.

You need to have a shock/surprise therapy . FED has.

UK/BoE problem is that £ is being used as a risk trade, which is amplifying the current issues.

BoE needs to move against this and remove that trade.

 

[marceau]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No, people adapt.

Just slash benefits and theyll adapt.

 

Oh they'll adapt, just not in the way the govt wants them to. 

[spygirl]

Just now, marceau said:

Oh they'll adapt, just not in the way the govt wants them to. 

Nah. Peopl always go - If you cut benefits youll spend more oncrime ...

You wont.

And you just need to be more creative on crime - remove access to housing.

Bump housign entitlement to the worse, smallest crappiest high rise. No pets.

 

 

 

[marceau]

Just now, spygirl said:

Nah. Peopl always go - If you cut benefits youll spend more oncrime ...

You wont.

And you just need to be more creative on crime - remove access to housing.

Bump housign entitlement to the worse, smallest crappiest high rise. No pets.

 

 

 

You are never going to see a return on most of these people, no matter what you do with them. The thrown-away English are broken for their whole lives. The non-English don't give a shit about this place and are never going to make any kind of sacrifice for it.

Then you have the army of parasites, leeches, subverters and outright enemies that have their claws in at the highest level of the British state. Rooting that lot out is beyond the means of liberal democracy.

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, marceau said:

More likely we won't recover from it at all. People aren't robots. They're not interchangable, reprogrammable or unemotional. For some reason the govt seems to think they are and just a few changes to a policy or process can get things back on track. They're very, very wrong.

Imo this is the real killer we face further down the line. A govt in trouble, falling back to pull on old forgotten levers, and finding they no longer work. You can't make a large UK city do the things it could do during the 1970s, let alone WW2, the people there are different now. It'll be the same with reshoring, infrastructure renewal etc. For all our millions in population growth there just isn't enough human clay.

Agree completely.

 

It's like when people speak of blitz spirit etc, I just think "Where the fuck do you think you are?". Most people don't know their next door neighbours name now, they used to live in each others houses and leave doors unlocked.

 

There's a big shock coming for most people. Maybe even for us, cynics though we are.

 

We're approaching the Ayn Rand moment: you can ignore reality but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.

[Virgil Caine]

10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No.

We have a very large governance sector which just fail to govern.

Governments need to make decisions.

 The more people a government employ, the slower n worse the decisions are.

There was this crap on the radio -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62598309

The NHS Confederation said the UK was facing a "humanitarian crisis".

A large part of the fix is - remove access to benefit s to migrant.s

Poof! ~5m cold brown n black people will fuck off home

Its down to the lobbying and bling eye turning in the public sector that so many migrants are drawing down vast sums from UK tax payers.

 

 

Governments need to make the big strategic decisions and to set up the mechanisms to push them through. What they don’t need to do is micro manage peoples lives. We have the exact opposite. The political class like to elevate relatively trivial issues to front of stage because failure there has little or no consequences while neglecting the big issues until they smack them in the face. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, marceau said:

You are never going to see a return on most of these people, no matter what you do with them. The thrown-away English are broken for their whole lives. The non-English don't give a shit about this place and are never going to make any kind of sacrifice for it.

Then you have the army of parasites, leeches, subverters and outright enemies that have their claws in at the highest level of the British state. Rooting that lot out is beyond the means of liberal democracy.

When the Government tries to deport criminal foreigners from inner city London or, from memory, Glasgow they back down to a moronic mob who take to the streets. That doesn't get fixed quickly. Things don't go back to how they were. Even prosperous small towns and cities are infected with this crap. It will take generations to turn around and the destination won't be the same as the departure point.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Of course the UK isn't uniquely fucked. Germany is fucked, France is fucked, the EU is fucked although Eastern Europe could dump it and come out ok. Australia is fucked, New Zealand has a talent for fucking itself rapidly, Canada is very fucked despite having resources on its side, the USA could power through economically but is completely fucked culturally. The UK is probably fucked to the average extent of that lot.

A lot of the world has pretty much always been fucked and doesn't look like unfucking itself any time soon.

[M S E Refugee]

Can anyone shed any light on why Jupiter is performing so badly?

It's now yielding 15%.

[Don Coglione]

9 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Of course the UK isn't uniquely fucked. Germany is fucked, France is fucked, the EU is fucked although Eastern Europe could dump it and come out ok. Australia is fucked, New Zealand has a talent for fucking itself rapidly, Canada is very fucked despite having resources on its side, the USA could power through economically but is completely fucked culturally. The UK is probably fucked to the average extent of that lot.

A lot of the world has pretty much always been fucked and doesn't look like unfucking itself any time soon.

Poetry.