Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

NINETY ONE PLC pulled back enough for me to buy it today in the ISA.

Im hoping i can get all ladders in them,i think il remove bottom ladder and do 2 more instead of 3.They are at the speculative end of my portfolio,,but these EM asset managers as a group might really leverage things once money flows into their markets.Vanguard and Blackrock wont be getting the flows.These companies also manage a lot for public sector bodies,local authority pensions etc.Pay increases see flows increase there as well.They will suffer of course as markets fall,but i dont think the market understands the structural position here.If it doesnt work out they might go down 40%,but if it does go up 300%+.I always like those odds.

AUM will likely keep falling for a while though due to inflation,but as usual im using ladders rather than try to time.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, Errol said:

Dugin had nothing to do with Putin anyway. In Russia he is an irrelevance. It was the West that played him up and made him into some kind of important figure. Similar to Navalny, in that respect.

Yup, people are calling him Goebbels. Absurd.

 

What it does is provide justification for anything BRICS want to do in future. Our hypocrisy will be our undoing.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Let's check in on Germany

 

🤡🤡🤡

 

 

 

 

[Errol]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yup, people are calling him Goebbels. Absurd.

It's surprising to see so many Western media pundits and commentators cheering this heinous act. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I don't know if this was previously posted, so apologies if it has:

Hugh Hendry and Prof David Blancheflower, former BoE MPC member(!)

Halfway through and already well worth watching, although sadly the Alchemist continues to be a twat.

Lots of stuff about MPC dysfunction. Also beleives many economic relationships from before 2008 have permanently broken but central banks haven't realised yet.

Will finish watching it tomorow.

(Bonus: The 'personal life' section of Blancheflowers' wikipedia page is...interesting)

Why did the relationship between unemployment and pay break down starting in 2008? Blanchflower doesn't answer and isn't asked such an obvious question. My view is that it is globalisation and related immigration. However, if the date is 2008, rather than the much earlier breaking of the link between productivity and earnings, then perhaps it is his rate cuts.

He also comes across as a twat conflating Brexit and a business moving because of energy costs. Also the idea that he is the most knowledgeable in the room and still knows little is an excuse. A way of belittling those who disagree - they know even less. Conceited twat.

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

Indeed. Blanchflower's one of Brown's crew - one of the worst, in fact. What a blast from the past, perhaps he can bring on some of the journos next? Maybe Kaletsky or David Smith? Fully recreate the 2000s environment.

I sometimes forget how terrible it was watching that crew fuck things up so horribly. The support was wall-to-wall though, it just couldn't be stopped.

Edit: For the record I think Hendry's a self-promoting bullshitter who'll latch on to whatever best enables his grift. 

Have to a agree. I've watched some of his stuff and he just annoys me, he's fucking twat.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Why did the relationship between unemployment and pay break down starting in 2008? Blanchflower doesn't answer and isn't asked such an obvious question. My view is that it is globalisation and related immigration. However, if the date is 2008, rather than the much earlier breaking of the link between productivity and earnings, then perhaps it is his rate cuts.

He also comes across as a twat conflating Brexit and a business moving because of energy costs. Also the idea that he is the most knowledgeable in the room and still knows little is an excuse. A way of belittling those who disagree - they know even less. Conceited twat.

He is one of the reasons we are in this mess of course,anyone who helped the Labour government are.The Tories risk being wiped out because they arent in government when they are in government now.The charities,civil service,unis etc all taken over by the left.First sign of a cut they roll out the "victims".I cant remember the last time anyone rolled out the real victims.Young working people not on bennies.The destruction has of course now speeded up and ran into inflation,always the great truth teller of a society.

So far though it looks like those on the government tit are being able to pass all the pain onto the private worker,or saver.The road to currency collapse and hyperinflation.

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is one of the reasons we are in this mess of course,anyone who helped the Labour government are.The Tories risk being wiped out because they arent in government when they are in government now.The charities,civil service,unis etc all taken over by the left.First sign of a cut they role out the "victims".I cant remember the last time anyone rolled out the real victims.Young working people not on bennies.The destruction has of course now speeded up and ran into inflation,always the great truth teller of a society.

So far though it looks like those on the government tit are being able to pass all the pain onto the private worker,or saver.The road to currency collapse and hyperinflation.

The potential for Sterling collapse before Euro collapse.....

 

[Starsend]

53 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The doors this opens are terrifying. Lines are being crossed that can't be taken back.

The Soviet Union fed cemtex to the IRA via Libya, to kill UK police and military personnel, but they at least maintained plausible deniability. NATO did plenty of comparable acts, but again under a veil of decorum. This enabled rapprochment as needed. It left options on the table for the future. Libya alone was small enough to smash, the Soviet union and later Russian Federation never were - hence a diplomatic component was always going to be needed.

What we are seeing now is the formation of a permanent divide. They really are trying to split the world in two. I don't beleive Ukraine could have done this car-bombing without CIA/MI5 help, and neither will the RF. The open crowing tone of the media wouldn't be happening without a nod from the top. I also think this is intended to provoke an attrocity against Kiev, again to enable a total divide.

The Russians assassinated people in the UK not so long ago, with an innocent Brit killed as well and a piggy who spent months in hospital.

Fuck 'em.

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is one of the reasons we are in this mess of course,anyone who helped the Labour government are.The Tories risk being wiped out because they arent in government when they are in government now.The charities,civil service,unis etc all taken over by the left.First sign of a cut they role out the "victims".I cant remember the last time anyone rolled out the real victims.Young working people not on bennies.The destruction has of course now speeded up and ran into inflation,always the great truth teller of a society.

So far though it looks like those on the government tit are being able to pass all the pain onto the private worker,or saver.The road to currency collapse and hyperinflation.

Do you think a new party will emerge?

I don't think Labour are any more popular than the Tories in the North.

[Starsend]

44 minutes ago, Errol said:

It's surprising to see so many Western media pundits and commentators cheering this heinous act. 

I don't approve of this act and we shouldn't be cheering it on but why the fuck is everybody acting like the Russians are fucking angels?

[Errol]

Just now, Starsend said:

The Russians assassinated people in the UK not so long ago, with an innocent Brit killed as well and a piggy who spent months in hospital.

Almost certainly a Western intelligence operation. Don't believe what you read in the UK media.

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

Gold is dying, again....

Hangman looks round as he waits

Cord stretches tight then it breaks

Someday we will die in your dreams

How I wish we were here with you now

 

In context it's fine on a day where most things are down

[Errol]

 

[HousePriceMania]

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, Errol said:

Almost certainly a Western intelligence operation. Don't believe what you read in the UK media.

I certainly have my doubts about that. See no reason at all why the Ukrainians couldn't have managed it. We'll find out soon enough I expect.

Still doesn't change the fact that they killed people in the UK.

[CannonFodder]

Dugin is a bit like Martin Lewis - I sent a letter to the chancellor/kremlin on studentloans/ukraine and numer10/putin is 100% listening to me. He values my advice.

Most people think both are knobs.

Western media now cheering the murder of a journalist his daughter.

Journalists happy that journalists die

 

[Errol]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

I certainly have my doubts about that. See no reason at all why the Ukrainians couldn't have managed it. We'll find out soon enough I expect.

Still doesn't change the fact that they killed people in the UK.

I was talking about the Skripals.

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thank goodness I have bought more Florins and Half Crowns off ebay over the weekend.

I can see Nationwide accepting them as payment for my Mortgage by next year.

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, Starsend said:

The Russians assassinated people in the UK not so long ago, with an innocent Brit killed as well and a piggy who spent months in hospital.

Fuck 'em.

6 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I don't approve of this act and we shouldn't be cheering it on but why the fuck is everybody acting like the Russians are fucking angels?

I hear what you are saying, but mostly it was Russians in exile targetted and likely they were plotting a coup to install a pro-NATO President of Russia. Many of them had already gotten unimaginably rich during the fall of the USSR, and presumably wanted a second bite of the cherry. It all just seems like a case of laying down with dogs and waking up with fleas to me.

The collateral damage from Salisbury was unforgivable, if you accept the official version of events at least. I am on the fence on that issue though. Wasn't the only person to die a junkie bin diver anyway? Lay down with dogs, again...

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I hear what you are saying, but mostly it was Russians in exile targetted and likely they were plotting a coup to install a pro-NATO President of Russia. Many of them had already gotten unimaginably rich during the fall of the USSR, and presumably wanted a second bite of the cherry. It all just seems like a case of laying down with dogs and waking up with fleas to me.

The collateral damage from Salisbury was unforgivable, if you accept the official version of events at least. I am on the fence on that issue though. Wasn't the only person to die a junkie bin diver anyway? Lay down with dogs, again...

She was an alcoholic, thought it was perfume she'd found - something like that.

I find the Russian love-in on this forum perplexing at times, like they can do no wrong. Most of the people on this forum despise Western governments for obvious reasons that are well covered on this forum and this seems to translate into Russian love, like a binary choice. I think we're governed by cunts but I also think the Russian leaders are a bunch of corrupt, gangster cunts.

Anyway, don't really want to get into the Russian stuff, it's not what this thread is about.

[Pip321]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Thank goodness I have bought more Florins and Half Crowns off ebay over the weekend.

I can see Nationwide accepting them as payment for my Mortgage by next year.

If you are still paying your mortgage next year they will push you to the front of the mile long queue outside the bank 🤦🏻‍♂️😆😆

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

I find the Russian love-in on this forum perplexing at times, like they can do no wrong. Most of the people on this forum despise Western governments for obvious reasons that are well covered on this forum and this seems to translate into Russian love, like a binary choice. I think we're governed by cunts but I also think the Russian leaders are a bunch of corrupt, gangster cunts.

Anyway, don't really want to get into the Russian stuff, it's not what this thread is about.

100%. I think our government demonising Russia is part of the plan to fuck us over so pointing out the contradictions is very reasonable. No love in on my part.

[King Penda]

25 minutes ago, Errol said:

Almost certainly a Western intelligence operation. Don't believe what you read in the UK media.

Jane bond did it 

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

100%. I think our government demonising Russia is part of the plan to fuck us over so pointing out the contradictions is very reasonable. No love in on my part.

All I see is Russia acting in a logical manner and the West acting illogically.

For me it's got to the point where I can no longer believe anything the West says as I have been lied to and gaslighted too many times.