Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[marceau]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

I’ve always said Brexit was a set up. UKIP and then Brexit party clamoring was getting to hard to ignore. Cameron gambled with the vote and no one expected the vote to go the way it did. May was a remainer and Boris then went missing as usual. His whole family were remain as was he and we were expected to believe that he ‘changed’ his mind and switched sides. Brexit was no way part of the globalist playbook. 

It was set up to fail. The disinflation cycle was already ending and the reckoning was always coming, and the timing of leaving was closely lined up. It was going to be the ‘fall guy’ excuse for our hyperinflation, when really it was because of our bloated public sector/pension costs and the fact that half our country relies on bennies and pays no tax. 

They must have been laughing behind closed doors letting millions in through the back door and whilst promoting meme flights to Rwanda and Joe public swallowing it up.

The final nail in the coffin is house prices. Once our holy mantra in this county of house prices collapse and millions are in negative equity with mortgages they can’t afford (what do you think the stamp duty holiday was for?) then our glorious leaders will hold another referendum to rejoin and that we all made a terrible mistake as we are ‘stronger together’ through these hard times. War may even accelerate that.

 

The flaw in this is that there is no way in hell this masterplan can work. Being in charge of ruins isn't an upgrade for our elites - and even if it was, they aren't likely to remain elites in a system without any foundations or legitimacy.

These people are fuck ups, and they've FUCKED UP TOO OFTEN to keep the show on the road. If there's conspiracy, it's a really, really shit one.

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’ve always said Brexit was a set up. UKIP and then Brexit party clamoring was getting to hard to ignore. Cameron gambled with the vote and no one expected the vote to go the way it did. May was a remainer and Boris then went missing as usual. His whole family were remain as was he and we were expected to believe that he ‘changed’ his mind and switched sides. Brexit was no way part of the globalist playbook. 

It was set up to fail. The disinflation cycle was already ending and the reckoning was always coming, and the timing of leaving was closely lined up. It was going to be the ‘fall guy’ excuse for our hyperinflation, when really it was because of our bloated public sector/pension costs and the fact that half our country relies on bennies and pays no tax. 

They must have been laughing behind closed doors letting millions in through the back door and whilst promoting meme flights to Rwanda and Joe public swallowing it up.

The final nail in the coffin is house prices. Once our holy mantra in this county of house prices collapse and millions are in negative equity with mortgages they can’t afford (what do you think the stamp duty holiday was for?) then our glorious leaders will hold another referendum to rejoin and that we all made a terrible mistake as we are ‘stronger together’ through these hard times. War may even accelerate that.

 

I'm not sure there will be an EU to join, I think it's everyone for themselves.

Poland has been criticising the larger Countries in the EU who dictate terms to the smaller Countries so I wouldn't be suprised if there is a lot of push back after the Italian elections by the smaller Countries.

[Option5]

9 minutes ago, nirvana said:

only against the mighty USD, it's unmoved against the shitty £ eh? 

PS DXY takes 109, u heard it predicted yesterday eh? 

The Norwegian Krone is up 1.7% on the pound in a week, 1.46% up against the Euro and 0.77% down against the USD.

I'm afraid this all makes no sense to me as Norway is a rich country and the rest are up to their eyeballs in debt. Currency exchange rates seem to be supply and demand driven,not value driven. I suppose it's because most of Norway's exports (oil and gas) are traded in USD.

But, what happens if the petrodollar and other reserve currencies collapse, will countries expect to be paid in their own currency for their goods, just as Russia is attempting to do?

I suspect a big change is coming in world trade.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

The flaw in this is that there is no way in hell this masterplan can work. Being in charge of ruins isn't an upgrade for our elites - and even if it was, they aren't likely to remain elites in a system without any foundations or legitimacy.

These people are fuck ups, and they've FUCKED UP TOO OFTEN to keep the show on the road. If there's conspiracy, it's a really, really shit one.

Klaus 'Ozymandias' Schwab looks to have fucked up bigtime!

 

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

The flaw in this is that there is no way in hell this masterplan can work. Being in charge of ruins isn't an upgrade for our elites - and even if it was, they aren't likely to remain elites in a system without any foundations or legitimacy.

These people are fuck ups, and they've FUCKED UP TOO OFTEN to keep the show on the road. If there's conspiracy, it's a really, really shit one.

Name one policy (not blue passports) that we have taken the advantage of Brexit when it could have been the springboard to secure this county through these hard times. Energy (nope), Fishing rights (nope), immigration (nope), trade deals (nope).

Who says we were ever supposed to come out of this. For them it’s just a guaranteed seat on the Ark.

[marceau]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Name one policy (not blue passports) that we have taken the advantage of Brexit when it could have been the springboard to secure this county through these hard times. Energy (nope), Fishing rights (nope), immigration (nope), trade deals (nope).

Who says we were ever supposed to come out of this. For them it’s just a guaranteed seat on the Ark.

Just looks like more fuck ups to me.

And what ark? If they want to condemn themselves to a future of green zones with the plebs rotting outside they're fucking idiots. Green zones are PRISONS with fancy restaurants.

And, of course, no matter how well provisioned, they have to go outside the wire eventually.......

[Option5]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure there will be an EU to join, I think it's everyone for themselves.

Poland has been criticising the larger Countries in the EU who dictate terms to the smaller Countries so I wouldn't be suprised if there is a lot of push back after the Italian elections by the smaller Countries.

There are even rumblings of Norway leaving the EEA, the population is fed up of the energy market rules imposed by membership pushing up prices of gas and electricity which are plentiful here.

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Name one policy (not blue passports) that we have taken the advantage of Brexit when it could have been the springboard to secure this county through these hard times. Energy (nope), Fishing rights (nope), immigration (nope), trade deals (nope).

Who says we were ever supposed to come out of this. For them it’s just a guaranteed seat on the Ark.

Getting rid of the EU was only ever half the task, the other half getting rid of the cretins in this country. I recall many people predicting they would open the floodgates to non-EU immigration once we left and so they have.

Was always clear that our politicians were a big part of the problem. At least they can no longer hide behind the EU anymore as they did for years. We need a a new Farage and new parties.

[ThoughtCriminal]

39 minutes ago, feed said:

That’s not strictly true is it.  There have been a number of articles linked here from the telegraph and Journos’ reading this site for material is starting to become a meme.
 

VAST majority are "more help needed for the poor".

 

But if it makes you feel better to believe in the second coming of Thatcher then far be it for me to come between a man and his delusions.

 

Congratulations btw, you just became an "AKSHUALLY" man. Pedantry achievement unlocked.

[feed]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

VAST majority are "more help needed for the poor".

 

But if it makes you feel better to believe in the second coming of Thatcher then far be it for me to come between a man and his delusions.

 

Congratulations btw, you just became an "AKSHUALLY" man. Pedantry achievement unlocked.

The second coming of Thatcher. Could you be more disingenuous.   What is important to maintain credibility is to acknowledge the change in the narrative, the change in direction.  There is a shift in what is being published, is being discussed that would have been unthinkable as little a 6 months ago.  That people expect an instant flip in mainstream thinking after 40 years is bizarre.   

But If you want to maintain your DOOM, DOOM, DOOM, narrative, then go ahead. But it’s utterly tedious.  
 

[Option5]

You couldn't make it up.

A major solar panel manufacturer in Norway has advised it will be stopping production and laying off workers from September 8th as it can't afford the electricity need to run its facilities.

Ho hum. 

[Noallegiance]

44 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Which makes this very dangerous territory indeed, once this snowball starts its going to be an avalanche before it can be stopped.

UK is mainly getting done in because despite having significant domestic, import and LNG capacity, those pipelines to Europe mean its more profitable to send as much as possible there rather than keep it in UK.  If those pipeline get shut off UK mainland gas prices are only going down.  Does Liz Truss fancy making herself super popular (with her own voters....) during her first week?

This is why I'm holding off on getting more Calor until I see what her direction is.

[moneyscam]

As I'm of Italian origin I keep a keen eye on Italy and its upcoming elections and how this affects the Euro macro outlook. Elections are due to be held on Sept 25th. The current leading party in the polls is the right wing Fratelli d'Italia (brothers of Italy) followed closely behind by the left wing Partito Democratico.

This is quite a turnaround from a few years ago when FDI only polled around 5% and Matteo Salvini's Lega was the leading right wing party having governed in a coalition with the populist 5 Star party after the last elections in 2018.

The main reason for this is that FDI refused to participate in the Draghi coalition (which all the other partied did) and its draconian Covid policies like the Green Pass (no jab, no job). It is expected that FDI will form the next government in a coalition with Lega and Forza Italia the other right leaning parties. They may even attain a 2/3rds majority in both houses of parliament which would allow them to change the constitution and reduce the power of the President and increase those of the Prime Minister amongst other things.

This is already making markets nervous with the MIB stock market one of the worst European performers this year and the BTP/Bund spread beginning to widen. It also adds to the pressure on the Euro.

I'll update as things develop as it bears keeping an eye on as it will add to an already shit situation in Euroland as Italy is also a big importer of Russian gas and oil albeit not to the same extent as Germany.

Those who are calling for a recession in Europe IMO are being optimistic. If we get to the stage that energy has to be rationed then we will have a depression never mind a recession. This mornings Euro area PMI's are coming in below 50 signifying contraction and IMO this is only just getting started. 

[marceau]

11 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Getting rid of the EU was only ever half the task, the other half getting rid of the cretins in this country. I recall many people predicting they would open the floodgates to non-EU immigration once we left and so they have.

Was always clear that our politicians were a big part of the problem. At least they can no longer hide behind the EU anymore as they did for years. We need a a new Farage and new parties.

All leaving the EU did was remove one of the shells from the shell game. It made the excuses and misdirections a little tougher, nothing more.

In some cases the polos didn't even bother to adapt, they just carried on blaming the EU while sitting on an 80 seat majority.

[M S E Refugee]

I am waiting for some of the Cash rich tight-arses at work to ask me how to buy Gold, this would indicate that hyperinflation was very much a possibility.

A few of them yesterday were reconciled to the fact that the UK was fucked although I don't think they have a clue of how bad its going to be.

 

[wherebee]

18 minutes ago, Option5 said:

You couldn't make it up.

A major solar panel manufacturer in Norway has advised it will be stopping production and laying off workers from September 8th as it can't afford the electricity need to run its facilities.

Ho hum. 

link?

 

[Stuey]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am waiting for some of the Cash rich tight-arses at work to ask me how to buy Gold, this would indicate that hyperinflation was very much a possibility.

A few of them yesterday were reconciled to the fact that the UK was fucked although I don't think they have a clue of how bad its going to be.

 

I am getting absolutely zero pushback from anyone IRL when I say this Bank Holiday Weekend is the last hurrah. The new energy price "cap" released on Friday, headline news on Saturday, will make everyone just think fuck it for this weekend and go mental.

And then they'll check their bank balances and letters from energy suppliers the following week... 

[ThoughtCriminal]

[JMD]

18 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Vlad?

Maybe so. I posted a J Peterson video monologue a few weeks back on Ukraine and it turned into one of his moral deep dives, which are normally interesting in themselves to think upon, but anyway he was framing things in terms of what the West could learn from Russian society.

[Majorpain]

25 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure there will be an EU to join, I think it's everyone for themselves.

EU moves at a speed of a sloth, and its the common european gas/electricity market with EU carbon rules that's doing the damage at the minute.  Just checked French Nuclear stats, and its reaching new lows at a mere 23gw, they will be doing pre maintenance so they can run flat out for winter but that's even causing problem now as they run expensive gas to make up the difference.

Sooner UK runs the remaining coal plants flat out and stops using expensive gas for electricity the better.

[JMD]

18 hours ago, marceau said:

Yes. Although it's a lot more likely in the US than UK.

I think so. Plus i'm hoping we in the UK stay on trend (historically speaking) and leave revolution to the continentals? 

[Stuey]

3 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

EU moves at a speed of a sloth, and its the common european gas/electricity market with EU carbon rules that's doing the damage at the minute.  Just checked French Nuclear stats, and its reaching new lows at a mere 23gw, they will be doing pre maintenance so they can run flat out for winter but that's even causing problem now as they run expensive gas to make up the difference.

Sooner UK runs the remaining coal plants flat out and stops using expensive gas for electricity the better.

Coal was $100/ton this time last year, now it's $400/ton and requires more carbon emission permits than gas. 

[JMD]

18 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

They say it like it's nothing.

 

"Only 5-10 winters. What's your problem?"

Expectation management? Next they'll be saying things like...   'You were lucky, all seven of us lived in middle of road in a shoe box!'.       

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure there will be an EU to join, I think it's everyone for themselves.

Poland has been criticising the larger Countries in the EU who dictate terms to the smaller Countries so I wouldn't be suprised if there is a lot of push back after the Italian elections by the smaller Countries.

The Germany collapse will see the EU collapse, I completely agree and Italy will default and send them under. That was the main reason I voted Brexit as it was inevitable eventually after the end of the disinflation cycle. 

But what I was referring to is the WEF vision of a union, that once we’ve gone through a financial collapse and millions are eventually relocated because of ‘climate change’, then we’ll all be a borderless mish mash with no sovereignty anyway. 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/

[feed]

10 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

EU moves at a speed of a sloth, and its the common european gas/electricity market with EU carbon rules that's doing the damage at the minute.  Just checked French Nuclear stats, and its reaching new lows at a mere 23gw, they will be doing pre maintenance so they can run flat out for winter but that's even causing problem now as they run expensive gas to make up the difference.

Sooner UK runs the remaining coal plants flat out and stops using expensive gas for electricity the better.

i wonder how much this is impacting both coal and Nuclear across the EU.