Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[King Penda]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I can tell you they are a waste of time,he is the worst of the lot of them and thats saying something.Zero understanding of whats drivig this cycle.

Indeed however I don’t understand or actually care what’s driving it (I’ve got a bit of an idea) . I don’t have much to lose but I will still try and position myself in such a way that if I end up having to stop work I don’t lose anything .having cash or shares above 16k is pointless. However a bigger house that could provide a hobby room ie dvd room or home brew room or be used for fostering or a lodger is fine.I don’t mind working daft hours if I give myself an attainable target I won’t do it for exotic holidays or nice clothes .if I don’t give myself a target I’d probably end up working 3 nights a week until I retire. Which to be fair does seem the way most of my friends are heading.no ambitions no

plans no nothing .I don’t realy have a plan but my logic is basicly all defensive and about weaponising my house if need be to bring in some cash but not in a way that I’m vunrable to the system 

Edited October 21, 2023 by King Penda

[King Penda]

Still it’s nice to see my skills are reconised by some people and that I could probably get even better paid jobs and be a cunt to cunts .I’m a bit of a cunt when I get going the problem is for the cunts they don’t realise this cunt will be a cunt to cunts out of works hours just when they stop being a cunt and be nice . That’s when cunts are vunrable to utter cunts .yours mr cunt 

[Starsend]

30 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Still it’s nice to see my skills are reconised by some people and that I could probably get even better paid jobs and be a cunt to cunts .I’m a bit of a cunt when I get going the problem is for the cunts they don’t realise this cunt will be a cunt to cunts out of works hours just when they stop being a cunt and be nice . That’s when cunts are vunrable to utter cunts .yours mr cunt 

Lol and I thought it I over used the word.

Cunt.

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Lol and I thought it I over used the word.

Cunt.

It’s true I’m a bit of a cunt but I’m normaly a nice cunt if you get my drift I go work do

my shit expect others to do there shit and everyone is happy .  The shit that is happening to the African s at work is almost certainly my fault if I get fucked off I don’t care . They are more valuable than me im

one person they are many however they are taking me for a cunt and the good ones for cunts .one even said he preferred to be on a 2-1 with white people has they stay awake . I’m like wtf ie he thinks they will cover him has he sleeps ie he thinks he is safe from coronas court .because whity will make sure they don’t die .  I’m like I’m going to photo bomb her taking a picture of you asleep and if the managers moan I’m going to ask if it’s my job to keep you awake besides stoping her killing herself 

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Mr and Mrs Norm shouldn't take too much risk when they don't have to but without the process they're guessing.  We consider lifestyle funds, the 4% rule, the "attitude to risk" questionnaire, and the rest to be barbaric!  It also explains why we are hot on context in any discussion and did not chase 2020.

 

The other big lie about pensions and superannuation is that for the normo's, the majority of offerings given by the financial companies hides the risk so you cannot tell where your money is.

In Australia, for example, I have a superannuation with an ex employer; I keep it there purely because the executive have all their pensions in the same scheme and it outperforms the average every year (funny that).  But I cannot find what underlying investments are in there.  

My wife's super, before I moved it to a scheme where I can make the investment decisions down to individual shares, was with a provider which offered buckets like 'foreign', 'high risk', capital retention' - but you couldn't find out exactly what was in each one.  Do they see Apple as high risk, foreign, or capital retention?  

Basically, the industry is set up to generate huge fees for the companies that run them, and the benefits of their pensioners is secondary.  For 40 years I think it's been hidden - once the new world order of BRICS comes in, we'll see a LOT of poor pensioners again.

[M S E Refugee]

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/115945144667?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=Lx_1TK6xTXG&sssrc=4429486&ssuid=HGYvEdibRDO&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY

Can't vouch for the seller, but these coins are going for less than the Silver spot price.

If you go through topcashback you will receive 2% off today.

[ThoughtCriminal]

How's this for wage inflation?

Loads of lads I know are in trades and most use lads on the dole for some cash in hand labouring on bigger jobs. The rate around here has always been 50-60 quid for the day.

The other day in the club I sat at the table and they're all outraged so I ask what's happened. One of them who's a builder said "I phoned John the other day with a few days graft for him and his mates, he asked me how much and I said the usual. His response? "Nah mate, me and the lads don't get out of bed for less than 100 now." 

🤣

They'll be forming a fucking union next.

[Harley]

11 hours ago, King Penda said:

Is it bouncing off the orange line ? 

Orange line bad?  Feck knows! 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

10 hours ago, Plan-b said:

A better use for the crayons!

[DurhamBorn]

17 hours ago, Starsend said:

His mistake was bringing her back to the UK where the power shifts to her - and being all round stupid. He should have stayed in her country and built himself a harem in a nice sunny place - hang on I'm day dreaming again haha.

Yes,you would think the other way around,but once they are here the guy slowly loses the power.The ones who come back here tend to be younger and still working.They assume once they get the "wife" a right to remain they can spend retirement between here and there,or mostly there,but she is usually off long before that.

What is very interesting though is tied in to this thread.The transfer of power and wealth to EMs.The truth is average UK guys simply cannot afford a Thai girlfriend/wife anymore.Its still cheaper there of course,but the gap is closing all the time and as final salary pensions are running off outside the private sector there just isnt the income.The average UK guy is simply not attractive anymore to most women as their earning power,health and status have been removed over the last 30 years.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

The other big lie about pensions and superannuation is that for the normo's, the majority of offerings given by the financial companies hides the risk so you cannot tell where your money is.

In Australia, for example, I have a superannuation with an ex employer; I keep it there purely because the executive have all their pensions in the same scheme and it outperforms the average every year (funny that).  But I cannot find what underlying investments are in there.  

My wife's super, before I moved it to a scheme where I can make the investment decisions down to individual shares, was with a provider which offered buckets like 'foreign', 'high risk', capital retention' - but you couldn't find out exactly what was in each one.  Do they see Apple as high risk, foreign, or capital retention?  

Basically, the industry is set up to generate huge fees for the companies that run them, and the benefits of their pensioners is secondary.  For 40 years I think it's been hidden - once the new world order of BRICS comes in, we'll see a LOT of poor pensioners again.

https://www.xpsgroup.com/news-views/press-releases/db-transfer-values-continue-fall-second-quarter-2023/#:~:text=DB Transfer values ended Q2,at the end of May.

I did my transfer in March 20 on CETV secured just below the peak transfer values.It was a nightmare to do,with IFAs saying no rush etc come back in a few years,no understanding that gilts were about to crash (we knew hence me desperate to transfer).Those transfer values have fallen over 33% nominal over 50% inflation adjusted.

Some of the transfer went into Mosaic BP Repsol Nutrien etc at the bottom.Iv more than doubled that capital.To put it in context the transfer value would now be around £95k,the value of it now inside my SIPP is £300k.

People simply do not understand that being on the wrong side of the cycle makes a massive difference.Of course the problem is we likely face three or four such times in our lives and if we miss the last one its a disaster,so we are not out of the woods at all.Its also why those close to or in retirement face the most damage,bigger pots,running out of time.

It has been a massive transfer of wealth from ordinary workers and savers in the private sector,but im glad to say i exploited it myself and made sure i got some of the loot.I just wish some of it was not from low paid workers whos NEST pension was selling BP to me at £2.10.

 

[BWW]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,you would think the other way around,but once they are here the guy slowly loses the power.The ones who come back here tend to be younger and still working.They assume once they get the "wife" a right to remain they can spend retirement between here and there,or mostly there,but she is usually off long before that.

What is very interesting though is tied in to this thread.The transfer of power and wealth to EMs.The truth is average UK guys simply cannot afford a Thai girlfriend/wife anymore.Its still cheaper there of course,but the gap is closing all the time and as final salary pensions are running off outside the private sector there just isnt the income.The average UK guy is simply not attractive anymore to most women as their earning power,health and status have been removed over the last 30 years.

in addition to the increase in russian and chinese tourism there. both big countries with many very rich and more than a few that have more than the .brit cheap charlies in the bars.

Indians too  -same unequal societies at home so those who are successful get tokeep what theymake - but they are a bit behind with the riches. Also a small problem that they hunt in packs and want to share which the service providers are not happy with.

[BWW]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

The other big lie about pensions and superannuation is that for the normo's, the majority of offerings given by the financial companies hides the risk so you cannot tell where your money is.

In Australia, for example, I have a superannuation with an ex employer; I keep it there purely because the executive have all their pensions in the same scheme and it outperforms the average every year (funny that).  But I cannot find what underlying investments are in there.  

My wife's super, before I moved it to a scheme where I can make the investment decisions down to individual shares, was with a provider which offered buckets like 'foreign', 'high risk', capital retention' - but you couldn't find out exactly what was in each one.  Do they see Apple as high risk, foreign, or capital retention?  

Basically, the industry is set up to generate huge fees for the companies that run them, and the benefits of their pensioners is secondary.  For 40 years I think it's been hidden - once the new world order of BRICS comes in, we'll see a LOT of poor pensioners again.

My view is that if you pay uk tax you have a pension credit backup if you lose the lot. you could live ok on that if you get to keep your house.

Being safe often means lower than inflation returns so eventually you're sure to be screwed ( but at least the taxman wont have had to contribute to you).

Taking risk you may end up screwed quicker but can then fall back on p.c., alternatively you may end up with more.

The whole advice industry both political and fncl services are about keeping your pension safe as you get older. Most of the danger that they are avoiding is danger that gov will have to pay for you.

They're asking the decent folkto economise andbe careful whilst paying shazza land whales with brats she and her string of crim fellas have trained tohave issues which ensure an extra.big bung. when slw is on 40-50k tax free whilst workers past n present struggle takinfg a risk makes sense for the workers.

tldr. because of bennies, having a bit more is pointless. taking risk means a lot more or nowt. both better than a bit.more.

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12656939/Collapse-bond-price-disaster-workers-nearing-retirement.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_ga=2.202440465.1871498893.1697969766-959547413.1675298544&_gl=1*10eyljq*_ga*OTU5NTQ3NDEzLjE2NzUyOTg1NDQ.*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTY5Nzk2OTc2NS4xNC4xLjE2OTc5NzA1MzkuMC4wLjA.#newcomment

MSM waking up to the disaster we warned about on here well before anyone else (mostly because we were among the few who knew rates would skyrocket and destroy gilt values).

Notice in the comments people who have lost 40%.I suspect for most it will be around 30%,but thats nominal,so over 50% with inflation .Work 40 years and save,hand 50% of it to the government for bennies and state worker pensions the two years before you retire.Incredible,yet very under reported.

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, BWW said:

in addition to the increase in russian and chinese tourism there. both big countries with many very rich and more than a few that have more than the .brit cheap charlies in the bars.

Indians too  -same unequal societies at home so those who are successful get tokeep what theymake - but they are a bit behind with the riches. Also a small problem that they hunt in packs and want to share which the service providers are not happy with.

Korean my friend told me is the new big money,and the girls like Korean guys as they hate fat smelly blokes and Koreans are in good shape and clean.I bought SK Telecom 

[BWW]

On 12/10/2023 at 10:12, BWW said:

More ot for this thread, does anyone have thoughts on lse metal ( excl gold silver) miners vs bonds for 6-12 months with plan of buying the miners when there's blood on the streets.

Talking about aal rio bhp anto . I think Democorruptcy  has stated sidelines and waiting for a crash.

Looking at long term trend aal especially seems to crash way low and then come back. Harley will I assume be a wait-for-the-crash chap therefore. Where is Db on this?

I am torn. Currently have total 6% in those 4 stocks and little cg, they were up but i took nowt out. Would like at least twice maybe thrice that. Could add now with cash in savings with taxed interest grrr. Tempted to sell all and buy low coupon bonds with expiration 4-12 mo for tax free gain(interest equivalent without contribution to govscroungers). Or double the holdings and sit any crash out. Or the current arse splinter option.

Thoughts?

 

On 13/10/2023 at 10:02, BWW said:

... snipped post on ashm ....

Also price/book 1.29 not sure how helpful that is for that sector (do people let that influence them much?) Coincidentally similar to AAL 1.03 and RIO 1.6 and ANTO 1.65.

 

On 20/10/2023 at 20:44, Castlevania said:

Not advice, but personally I’d diversify out of Shell if it was that much of my portfolio. Might be worth taking a look at Petrobras as they’ve been smashing it production wise (record high production the last quarter) and at these oil prices pay out a lot in dividends.

 

On 21/10/2023 at 10:33, NogintheNog said:

Each to their own here, but I think some of these trades maybe mistakes, however DYOR.

Bearing in mind the likes of BHP and AAL have foreign currency running through their veins and we know that the pound sterling is highly likely to just get weaker, why sell?

If you think they are being run badly, sure then sell. But are they going to be run any worse than UK plc? If you are shorting (as with any share) then there may be money to be made (or lost!)

Which one do I trust more, the management of BHP/AAL, or the managers running UK plc!

My post just above on risk plus pp on metals are why i choose fornow to remain on current proportions ( each of bp and shel 15% of portfolio). I understand its a risk.

sell aal because it has over 25 years moved down 70% then up 200%. other miners less pronounced but similar.

dont even know what site i would need tolook at to see other reasons for aal lows in2015, 2008 etc. my thoughts not about current management quality. just about ccycle, recessions, etc

atm i hold under 1% in aal, down 20% excl divis. would like 2 or3% there as hold forever and ignore. would prefer to pay half of current.price.

bhp aiui are also producing coal (still? ordidtheysellitalloff), ... i think coal gas oil will do well as even through the economic dip as new normal int rate levels bite, those willstillbe consumed and atm prices are depressed due to moronpolitics jso and their msm cheerleaders. needing energy trumps all that when itscold or  people need to drive. needing cu zn al etcetc notsomuch so they will dip until  green shoots appear.

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by BWW
typos

[DoINeedOne]

https://rumble.com/v3q5p41-the-war-on-cash-with-fund-manager-tim-price-together-business-member-interv.html

Tim Price, pretty much says the same as here especially if you get welfare of course you want more and bigger government you think you're going get even more free shit

 

Also as a Carpenter during the years @Bobthebuilder was talking about we always got very undercut on job estimates especially kitchens only to get a call a week or 2 later asking if we were still available as the cheap Romanians or Polish had fucked the job up

 

Not to say there weren't any decent ones I knew a Polish tiler who was amazing at his trade, but was happy on £50 a day, because he lived with 10 other Polish guys in a 2-bed flat so his outgoings were not that much

 

When he asked me to help him move house it was an eye opener bunk beds everywhere and all he had was a few suit cases

Edited October 22, 2023 by DoINeedOne

[NogintheNog]

22 minutes ago, BWW said:

atm i hold under 1% in aal, down 20% excl divis. would like 2 or3% there as hold forever and ignore. would prefer to pay half of current.price.

I'm at about 1.5% of my investments in AAL, down about 10% excluding divs. In the worst of the commodities rout in 2016 it was down at £3! Still bucketfuls of money printed since then, so I can't see us going back there, however in a 'oh shit we've broken the system situation I could see it at £10 maybe. Ladders set.....

Printing money is easy. Mining essential metals, coal and diamonds isn't.

Now, about that energy transition, what do we need.....

Edited October 22, 2023 by NogintheNog

[BWW]

3 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I'm at about 1.5% of my investments in AAL, down about 10% excluding divs. In the worst of the commodities rout in 2016 it was down at £3! Still bucketfuls of money printed since then, so I can't see us going back there, however in a 'oh shit we've broken the system situation I could see it at £10 maybe. Ladders set.....

Printing money is easy. Mining essential metals, coal and diamonds isn't.

Now, about that energy transition, what do we need.....

when its inexpectedly -1 we need oil gas or electric immediately.

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12656939/Collapse-bond-price-disaster-workers-nearing-retirement.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_ga=2.202440465.1871498893.1697969766-959547413.1675298544&_gl=1*10eyljq*_ga*OTU5NTQ3NDEzLjE2NzUyOTg1NDQ.*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTY5Nzk2OTc2NS4xNC4xLjE2OTc5NzA1MzkuMC4wLjA.#newcomment

MSM waking up to the disaster we warned about on here well before anyone else (mostly because we were among the few who knew rates would skyrocket and destroy gilt values).

Notice in the comments people who have lost 40%.I suspect for most it will be around 30%,but thats nominal,so over 50% with inflation .Work 40 years and save,hand 50% of it to the government for bennies and state worker pensions the two years before you retire.Incredible,yet very under reported.

Keep arguing with a numbskull on royalmailchat about how our Pension isn't safe but he keeps saying it is because its a defined benefit scheme backed by the Government.

[BWW]

i looked again at solar costs last night as i watched a yt vid on a 2.1 kwh portable power supply. enetgizer can be had for 700 ish he says although i cant find it on amazon.

would use such like to get fan heater 1kw for 2 hrs every morning from solar which i have and exprt some which i could keepforfree ( needs extra 200-300quidelec  for diverter)  or wind need to buy.

just the battery cost 700 quid. 2 hrs 1 kwh leccy current price is 70p. IF use 100 d/yr thats70 quid a yr. 10 years paying full price for leccy to get prepaid cash back tjat paid for battery.

calc ignores 

- iget part. of leccy free from solar at time htr is.on anyway. 4 kwh array gens 4000 kwh per yr.

- leccy price maygo up anyway. but was 1/3  ofcurrent price  onlr 2/3 yrs  ago.

- could have.invrsted the 700quid in shel. 😁

- how many years will thisenergizer unit continue to work. moststuff even branded does not get to 10 and its certainly not guaranteed to produce for 10 years so may not even break even.

conclusion: numbers say no.

[Castlevania]

41 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I'm at about 1.5% of my investments in AAL, down about 10% excluding divs. In the worst of the commodities rout in 2016 it was down at £3! Still bucketfuls of money printed since then, so I can't see us going back there, however in a 'oh shit we've broken the system situation I could see it at £10 maybe. Ladders set.....

Printing money is easy. Mining essential metals, coal and diamonds isn't.

Now, about that energy transition, what do we need.....

All the green energy companies are issuing profit warnings left right and centre. Not sure if the demand is there.

[Harley]

Lyn is currently on pretty much every podcast of mine given her new book.  Fair enough, and her book is #1 atm which is nice to hear.  As one Wealthion contributor said, she's a rare one, able to combine sane TA with the big macro and beyond (e.g. Fourth Turning).

Edited October 22, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, BWW said:

i looked again at solar costs last night as i watched a yt vid on a 2.1 kwh portable power supply. enetgizer can be had for 700 ish he says although i cant find it on amazon.

would use such like to get fan heater 1kw for 2 hrs every morning from solar which i have and exprt some which i could keepforfree ( needs extra 200-300quidelec  for diverter)  or wind need to buy.

just the battery cost 700 quid. 2 hrs 1 kwh leccy current price is 70p. IF use 100 d/yr thats70 quid a yr. 10 years paying full price for leccy to get prepaid cash back tjat paid for battery.

calc ignores 

- iget part. of leccy free from solar at time htr is.on anyway. 4 kwh array gens 4000 kwh per yr.

- leccy price maygo up anyway. but was 1/3  ofcurrent price  onlr 2/3 yrs  ago.

- could have.invrsted the 700quid in shel. 😁

- how many years will thisenergizer unit continue to work. moststuff even branded does not get to 10 and its certainly not guaranteed to produce for 10 years so may not even break even.

conclusion: numbers say no.

Plus there are some additional considerations, all of which make it worse for that use case.  We're looking to ramp up on our energy investments to pay our household bills.  Poetic!  We own ETFs WENS and MLPP in our trend portfolio but need more of them and are patiently waiting for good entries in our value portfolio for a few good stocks.  We had a fair energy investment but sold down a while back.

PS:  Not recommendations.  We chose WENS because it is a rare global energy ETF.  However, it's new and lacks much prior monthly data for our TA so a bit of faith atm.  Good vol though, unlike MLPP.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, BWW said:

My post just above on risk plus pp on metals are why i choose fornow to remain on current proportions ( each of bp and shel 15% of portfolio). I understand its a risk.

sell aal because it has over 25 years moved down 70% then up 200%. other miners less pronounced but similar.

dont even know what site i would need tolook at to see other reasons for aal lows in2015, 2008 etc. my thoughts not about current management quality. just about ccycle, recessions, etc

atm i hold under 1% in aal, down 20% excl divis. would like 2 or3% there as hold forever and ignore. would prefer to pay half of current.price.

bhp aiui are also producing coal (still? ordidtheysellitalloff), ... i think coal gas oil will do well as even through the economic dip as new normal int rate levels bite, those willstillbe consumed and atm prices are depressed due to moronpolitics jso and their msm cheerleaders. needing energy trumps all that when itscold or  people need to drive. needing cu zn al etcetc notsomuch so they will dip until  green shoots appear.

 

We're really disappointed with the mining industry and the materials sector generally.  We use ETFs GIGB for mining and XDWM for materials in our trend portfolio (not recommendations, DYOR).  We had to exit GIGB as it did not meet expectations.  We continue to wait.  We also had a number of miners in our value portfolio such as AAL and RIO but had to sell them when they signalled the current down (which has been a lot more severe than expected).  Also very surprised to see the lower AAL yield, which at under 6% means we'd prefer cash (and if it's running, stick with GIGB).  Again, we wait (with close interest atm), still confident in the sector.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Harley