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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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Yadda yadda yadda

Yadda yadda yadda

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Seeing a lot of people saying this. Is it that simple?

Who the hell would buy the puts you sell? Someone who thinks oil prices will collapse or it is a risk worth hedging at the price you will take. If lots of people are in a trade that is very obvious then the price you will get is very low. The risk if it goes against you is very high. 79 dollar oil may look highly unlikely but it isn't impossible. If the oil price starts to move down then the liability is unlimited. Could easily be picking up pennies in front of the steamroller.

When a trade is being shouted from the rooftops the easy money has been made. Could easily be some intervention to manipulate the oil price down.

 

Edited by Yadda yadda yadda
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Himura
Himura

OK so update on the credit crunch...it's here. Friend of mine co-owns a company that does property, 4 partners in total.  The biggest holding they have is a block of 62 student flats in Nottingha

DurhamBorn
DurhamBorn

You mean "Have you" seeing as your the grammar police.Im not really sure why go on threads just to try to belittle posters?.It really is not a good look.I share my work,you can take it or leave it,som

azzuri82
azzuri82

Long-time lurker. This thread, if you're not actively reading it every few days at most becomes too much to actually catch up on. I think since the last time I've properly been active on her

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Cattle Prod

Cattle Prod

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Who the hell would buy the puts you sell? Someone who thinks oil prices will collapse or it is a risk worth hedging at the price you will take. If lots of people are in a trade that is very obvious then the price you will get is very low. The risk if it goes against you is very high. 79 dollar oil may look highly unlikely but it isn't impossible. If the oil price starts to move down then the liability is unlimited. Could easily be picking up pennies in front of the steamroller.

When a trade is being shouted from the rooftops the easy money has been made. Could easily be some intervention to manipulate the oil price down.

 

There is plenty people buying puts, looking at IBKR! But I agree with this. In any credit deflation (paper) oil is going straight down, no doubt about it. It's not related to supply and demand.

That said, $79 is an interesting number. The big pivot zone I have marked on my charts with a rectangular box is $77-81, going back to 2006. Look yourselves, I didn't pick that range because $79 is in the middle, it has been a very strong resistance/support zone for 17 years. FWIW I don't think $79 is unlikely at all. Either is $120. It's volatile, so I'm not concerned about short term movements in this market.

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

One hell of a chart, TLT to finally run and yields to fall?

 

I wonder if that ties in with Sven Heinrich's thesis? I don't follow him but he did a Wealthion podcast recently, with interesting charts, explaining that big institutional money was about to begin buying back into markets, he predicted SP500 would start rallying during October and for that run to continue into next year. 

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Pip321

Pip321

Posted
Posted

Anyone buying today......almost too many flashing red for me to know which to pick. Feels like an opportunity for a short term trade but still sticking with the solid shares we discuss on here.

Keep thinking if I am going to do some swing trades that those with no stamp duty might be best. ;)

 

 

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Long time lurking

Long time lurking

Posted
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Every time the BRICS meet ,the SCO meet <the BRI meet Europe/the west rolls out the CBDC psyop Ursula Vanderlyn done it this week when the BRI forum met in China,they done the same when the BRICS met in August 

The reason for the psyop below ,fully convertible 1-1 it`s just the case the algorithm is the security ,which means the end of the need for SWIFT and the wests hard infrastructure to make such payments secure for cross boarder payments 

 

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Posted
Posted


Except it does make complete sense. The reason why house prices and tech/NASDAQ/SP500 are the lag indicator.

The market hasn’t known any different for decades.

When it rains however it pours.

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Red Debt Redemption

Red Debt Redemption

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Anyone buying today......almost too many flashing red for me to know which to pick. Feels like an opportunity for a short term trade but still sticking with the solid shares we discuss on here.

Keep thinking if I am going to do some swing trades that those with no stamp duty might be best. ;)

 

 

Thinking ashmore

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honkydonkey

honkydonkey

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Anyone buying today......almost too many flashing red for me to know which to pick. Feels like an opportunity for a short term trade but still sticking with the solid shares we discuss on here.

Keep thinking if I am going to do some swing trades that those with no stamp duty might be best. ;)

 

 

YARA (YARIY ADR)

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honkydonkey

honkydonkey

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Thinking ashmore

ASHM@LSE (Name: ASHMORE GROUP PLC) announced a cash dividend with an ex-dividend date of 20231102

The declared cash rate is GBP 0.121.

Either buy Ashmore now and get a 12p divi in a few weeks or wait for it to drop the 10p or so it likely will on the 2nd and get in then.

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InLikeFlynn

InLikeFlynn

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Anyone buying today......almost too many flashing red for me to know which to pick. Feels like an opportunity for a short term trade 

 

I bought a bit (2k)of CTY.L today (city of London investment trust).

A very dull investment trust which holds all this thread's favourites (BAT, BP, SHEL etc). Yield >5% and trading at a small discount to NAV. 

I'm not a trader (I'm crap at market timing). I plan to hold this for years. 

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Long time lurking

Long time lurking

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

One hell of a chart, TLT to finally run and yields to fall?

 

At the current rate of issuance the FED have 3-4 months worth of support for UST`s ,it balance sheet will be zero then 

This is when the rubber hits the road as they are the only buyer   

 

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No One

No One

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, InLikeFlynn said:

I bought a bit (2k)of CTY.L today (city of London investment trust).

A very dull investment trust which holds all this thread's favourites (BAT, BP, SHEL etc). Yield >5% and trading at a small discount to NAV. 

I'm not a trader (I'm crap at market timing). I plan to hold this for years. 

I just sold my Shell for +85% profit. Will stay cash for the big drops.

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3 minutes ago, No One said:

I just sold my Shell for +85% profit. Will stay cash for the big drops.

I wouldn’t sell anything that is oil and gold for here on in.

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Red Debt Redemption

Red Debt Redemption

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

ASHM@LSE (Name: ASHMORE GROUP PLC) announced a cash dividend with an ex-dividend date of 20231102

The declared cash rate is GBP 0.121.

Either buy Ashmore now and get a 12p divi in a few weeks or wait for it to drop the 10p or so it likely will on the 2nd and get in then.

I'm in, if drops further I'll buy more and more and more xD Overtime flying off the shelf at work biggest wage packet I've ever had next month and biggest divi with me Ashmore.

I've missed quite a few things by waiting it out to see like Thungela, that turkish telecom thing Durhamborn posted before and others. Ladder in when price looks tempting and no ragrets is my new game.

Getting a bit TOSsie everything's going zero and gold $10000 but it somehow keeps struggling on another 5 year, 10 year, 20 year. I've enough powder left aside to jump in further if needs be.

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Cosmic

Cosmic

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

I wouldn’t sell anything that is oil and gold for here on in.

What about energy? I've noticed MacBeth is now an uncomfortably large holding of mine after it has creaped up significantly...

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, King Penda said:

No gold sadly will silver ever correct to it’s historical link to gold ?

You’ll be a lot better off than Stuey waiting for energy prices to go back down ;)

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BWW

BWW

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, No One said:

I just sold my Shell for +85% profit. Will stay cash for the big drops.

I have decided to get out of bhp and aal (thinking about rio , anto also likely and glen maybe) but buy hbr and maybe wg. since i am too long shel ....15%++ of total portfolio  at curr values so should sell shel to buy these. iow this is effectively going more long shel

alt buy was uk bonds to get 6-12mo tax free 4-5% annualized. i think oilies will do better  than that and will sell down shel and bp when the miners bottom out to buy back into them.

dyor ... my recent trading punt was not one to follow.

 

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Stuey

Stuey

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You’ll be a lot better off than Stuey waiting for energy prices to go back down ;)

They've cratered month-ahead about 10% this week 

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