Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 2)

[Phil]

1 hour ago, ste said:

Bullish

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/21/a-property-price-rise-in-the-uk-could-be-the-tories-last-election-trump-card

 

Classic bollocks. 

[AWW]

Sorry, who expects the market to improve?

[ste]

Jeremy Hunt looks to extend help for first-time homebuyers

https://www.ft.com/content/bac16aef-47e7-4bbc-85cd-4d1ceebd1059

Quote

UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt is planning new measures to support people buying their first home, as high interest rates continue to pose a challenge to those trying to get on the property ladder. One option being discussed is an extension to the existing mortgage guarantee scheme that helps homebuyers purchase their first property with just a 5 per cent deposit, according to a person familiar with the plans.

Might be a bit late for this to turn things around and show in housing stats in time for the election, but you never really thought they could let things fall without at least trying something, could you?

 

 

[Boon]

The 95% guarantee thing isn't really material because it doesn't help many people at these rates. I bet very few if any people take it out, so it is more for the news headlines rather than reality.

And banks don't really want to offer it anyway, because the government guarantee only lasts for (IIRC) the first 7 years.

IE. Barclays government mortgage guarantee 2 yr fix is 6.90%, and 5 year fix is 7.12% for that product, well above the rates for those with decent deposits and still above their normal rates for 90%. In other words, guarantee is valued at shit.

Take a shitbox flat, £300k, deposit £15k, monthly mortgage payment is c£1900 at 6.9%

Gonna be targeting people earning £50k-60k but once you add in the rest of the bills you realise that that affording it is quite difficult on that salary, and in any case a £300k flat might be able to be rented for £1k-£1.2k, a huge difference considering the rent includes service charges, but the mortgage does not.

The thing that hurts is not the lack of deposit but rather the interest rate of the mortgage.

[Axeman123]

If they are still at the discussing options stage this is just talk, and nothing will happen before the election.

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

If they are still at the discussing options stage this is just talk, and nothing will happen before the election.

They will have something about housing in the Autumn statement on Nov 22nd.

[JoeDavola]

21 hours ago, AWW said:

Sorry, who expects the market to improve?

Stranger things have happened.

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

They will have something about housing in the Autumn statement on Nov 22nd.

We are facing a GE and the associated campaign basically a year from now or less, and additionally there are rumours of letters of no confidence going in this weekend, so I don't necessarily see anything actually happening regardless of what is being floated.

The DM is stating that the mortgage gaurantee scheme (that no-one is taking up) being extended for another year plus some new type of ISA for saving up a deposit is all the help that is coming*, and states that HTB has been ruled out by number 10 as inflationary.

Thin gruel indeed IMO, the optics of withdrawing a scheme on schedule in December as house prices slide a year before a GE was always going to be a non-starter anyway, nothing so permanent as a temporary stimulus.

*https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12659309/Mortgage-guarantee-scheme-Chancellor-Jeremy-Hunt-property-prices.html

[spygirl]

I'll give you an example if my life, in terms of properdee.

Feckless#1 eldest managed to swing a public sector  job that pays alot for v little.

She's fucked it up.

She's been suspended us going to be sacked. 100%

However, fucked iit before getting a v large mortgage with BF.

She's the main earner. BF moves jobs. He'll soon run out of options.

Anyhow, mutha n feckless#1 are blaming nieces employee. Not their fault, 100 % nieces. She fucked up.

To replace the money She's looking at 60h/w in scampi factory, which she can walk too.

Anyhow, mortgage comes up.

I suggest she really shoukd have been overpaying.

Feckless#1 n Mutha go - why? If she's got a large mortgage the people who employ have will have to pay her more money.

Hold on, I said. You think you are paid according to how much your mortgage is?

Both-Yes.

 

 

 

[Stuey]

10 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

They will have something about housing in the Autumn statement on Nov 22nd.

And an interest rate cut or several. 

This really is the time to buy. 

[Bobthebuilder]

@Bus Stop Boxer

3 bedroom chalet for sale in Philip Road, Blandford Forum, DT11 (rightmove.co.uk)

This is one you have been watching I think?

Reduced again today, still way to expensive imho, tiny garden and right next to the bypass.

[Boglet]

Pahahaha!

https://www.ft.com/content/bac16aef-47e7-4bbc-85cd-4d1ceebd1059

 

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, Boglet said:

Pahahaha!

https://www.ft.com/content/bac16aef-47e7-4bbc-85cd-4d1ceebd1059

 

The first of many ploys to get the housing market moving again. You'd think there was an election around the corner...

[Plan-b]

2 hours ago, Stuey said:

The first of many ploys to get the housing market moving again. You'd think there was an election around the corner...

Scorched earth policy. The Tories are finished for a generation and they know it.

The last few years since 2019 have seen some of the worse years for the UK in recent history and they have presided over it.

Never Again.

[No One]

 

A marked decline in volume recently. 

Maybe stuff is clearing, or people cba on the run up to x -mass. From MHWC he says the people he speaks to are seeing the market is dead.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

On 23/10/2023 at 12:05, Bobthebuilder said:

@Bus Stop Boxer

3 bedroom chalet for sale in Philip Road, Blandford Forum, DT11 (rightmove.co.uk)

This is one you have been watching I think?

Reduced again today, still way to expensive imho, tiny garden and right next to the bypass.

Cheers, saw it on my morning trawl yesterday. I hadnt realised it was SO close to the bypass.

On the standard map its showing a little way away, naughty, but on the included overhead it is indeed right slap bang next to it. Was that over head pic included when first listed? I dont remember seeing it.

Fair bit of frontage so can excuse the rear garden being a tad bijou. But yes proximity to A354 must be holding back all the canny investment.

I'm keeping my eye on that, what i want to see is a BEVVY of similar stuff all around £360-£375k by the spring.

Back to 2017-ish sort of levels.

If i see enough i will stick my place back on the market in the knowledge i can get a decent upgrade for £70k-.ish

[Bobthebuilder]

15 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Cheers, saw it on my morning trawl yesterday. I hadnt realised it was SO close to the bypass.

On the standard map its showing a little way away, naughty, but on the included overhead it is indeed right slap bang next to it. Was that over head pic included when first listed? I dont remember seeing it.

Fair bit of frontage so can excuse the rear garden being a tad bijou. But yes proximity to A354 must be holding back all the canny investment.

I'm keeping my eye on that, what i want to see is a BEVVY of similar stuff all around £360-£375k by the spring.

Back to 2017-ish sort of levels.

If i see enough i will stick my place back on the market in the knowledge i can get a decent upgrade for £70k-.ish

I am starting to see some "leveling up" in the £400 to £450 range in the area. Wimbourne was always more expensive, but that seems to be getting similar, like wise some houses in places like Milton Abbas and the Winterbournes coming on in that price bracket. Dare I say it? The old market town is starting to look a bit expensive.....

[Bobthebuilder]

18 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I hadnt realised it was SO close to the bypass.

News released today about 600 new homes to be built on the bypass just opposite that house, this will make the locals happy.

North East Blandford Consultation (wyatthomes.co.uk)

Plans for homes on Blandford farmland agreed - BBC News

 

[One percent]

40 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

News released today about 600 new homes to be built on the bypass just opposite that house, this will make the locals happy.

North East Blandford Consultation (wyatthomes.co.uk)

Plans for homes on Blandford farmland agreed - BBC News

 

500 new properties in a town that size is going to change it dramatically.  Nowhere is safe. 

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, One percent said:

500 new properties in a town that size is going to change it dramatically.  Nowhere is safe. 

I have relatives in the town saying all the usual stuff about how you cant get a dentist or GP as it is.

The Wyatt homes link has a cracking demonstration about urban sprawl dating back to the middle ages in the town, saying it is natural spread,

Edited October 25, 2023 by Bobthebuilder

[Wight Flight]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have relatives in the town saying all the usual stuff about how you cant get a dentist or GP as it is.

The Wyatt homes link has a cracking demonstration about urban sprawl dating back to the middle ages in the town, saying it is natural spread,

Perhaps with some new housing a dentist or doctor can move to the area?

[Bus Stop Boxer]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

News released today about 600 new homes to be built on the bypass just opposite that house, this will make the locals happy.

North East Blandford Consultation (wyatthomes.co.uk)

Plans for homes on Blandford farmland agreed - BBC News

 

Is that down near Langton Long. Bit floody down there innit?

Welcome et Bienvenue to Blandford Lakes....

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Is that down near Langton Long. Bit floody down there innit?

Welcome et Bienvenue to Blandford Lakes....

Further up the hill, its a huge site, pretty much from the upper Shaftsbury road down to Blandford camp road (black lane). They have managed to avoid the flood plains in this rare instance.

[One percent]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67214201
 

The UK's largest mortgage lender expects house prices to fall this year and next before rising in 2025.

Halifax-owner Lloyds Banking Group predicts prices will drop 4.7% this year and by a further 2.4% in 2024 before recovering.

Lenders have blamed higher borrowing costs for a slowdown in house sales.

But the average house price remains about £40,000 higher than at the height of Covid when prices soared, as people working from home sought more space.

Lloyds said on Wednesday that while prices would fall over the next two years, longer term growth would be steady with prices rising 0.6% by 2027.

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, One percent said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67214201
 

The UK's largest mortgage lender expects house prices to fall this year and next before rising in 2025.

Halifax-owner Lloyds Banking Group predicts prices will drop 4.7% this year and by a further 2.4% in 2024 before recovering.

Lenders have blamed higher borrowing costs for a slowdown in house sales.

But the average house price remains about £40,000 higher than at the height of Covid when prices soared, as people working from home sought more space.

Lloyds said on Wednesday that while prices would fall over the next two years, longer term growth would be steady with prices rising 0.6% by 2027.

Well, thats means they expect a ~10%+ fall for ~5y.