Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 2)

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

CRE is going to be the post convid ground zero of interest rates reverting back to the pre GFC normal.

But in it's defence its only a dodgy handshake away from a government backed change in planning to allow habitation for our brand new citizens.

With the recent [2021] change in planning/redevelopment regarding the Commercial E Class into Residential we are not far from that anyway.

[darkmarket]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

a £226mn loss on revenue of £111.8mn........mmmmm?

its write down tastic smashy......

Interesting, the glut in residential and commercial property in and around Manchester is very ugly, even by local standards. I've seen the pace and depth of reductions increasing slowly of late, but only preliminary moves for now.

Similarly,that's a substantial write-down in terms of total assets, based on the tangibles and investments quoted in the previous annual report, and yet there is plenty of scope for farther revision.

At this point, with the Signa collapse keeping minds focused, I can only hope the kind of initiative shown in the write-down is also being shown in off-loading riskier assets promptly before forced selling becomes part of the daily discourse. I'm looking forward to local government investment vehicles announcing their rounds of CRE write-downs too.

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

But in it's defence its only a dodgy handshake away from a government backed change in planning to allow habitation for our brand new citizens.

I lived in an apartment in a large city in Asia (25m+) that had been converted from office space. It's a desperate move only considered in a very uncertain market at a specific point in its cycle. That was over five years ago now, in the time since that market's performance has been among the worst on the planet. I understand the claim that residential prices have been a cushion to commercial losses in the US market, but in general I suspect investors won't be convinced by too many of the conversion proposals.

[JoeDavola]

6 hours ago, belfastchild said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68171637

Sherry Fitzgerald buys out Simon Brien.

2007 you say?

To be fair we've been claiming it's 2007 for the last 5 years!

[JoeDavola]

7 hours ago, spygirl said:

Jesus

Big US jobs rise in January surprises again

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68183421

Its only a surprise if you spend your time listening to loads of daft lefty academic economists.

 

What sort of jobs though?

Are these jobs that allow the employee to put a decent roof over their head? Or is it a load of min wage shit jobs.

[Wight Flight]

26 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

What sort of jobs though?

Are these jobs that allow the employee to put a decent roof over their head? Or is it a load of min wage shit jobs.

Minimum wage in 90% of the US will allow a fairly decent roof over your head.

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

What sort of jobs though?

Are these jobs that allow the employee to put a decent roof over their head? Or is it a load of min wage shit jobs.

All sorts.

US employment /employers respond to lack of labour by upping pay.

They dont get bigger n uglier than Walmart -

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/walmart-raise-pay-store-managers-how-much-and-where-rcna135061

Workers at America's largest private employer will soon be getting raises.

Walmart announced last week that the average salary for store managers will go from $117,000 to $128,000 a year — a 9.4% increase. They will also be eligible for bonuses up to 200% of base salary, based on individual store sales and profit.

A spokesperson for Walmart told NBC News in an email that there are approximately 4,700 Walmart stores in the U.S., and that each store has a store manager.

 

 

[JoeDavola]

28 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Walmart announced last week that the average salary for store managers will go from $117,000 to $128,000 a year — a 9.4% increase. They will also be eligible for bonuses up to 200% of base salary, based on individual store sales and profit.

Kinell.

Meanwhile in the UK Tesco are doing away with manager roles and replacing them with "Shift Leaders" on min wage + £5K IIRC

[One percent]

It might be crashing where you are but here it’s to the moon

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/140460911#/?channel=RES_BUY

[spygirl]

6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Kinell.

Meanwhile in the UK Tesco are doing away with manager roles and replacing them with "Shift Leaders" on min wage + £5K IIRC

People scare them selves about the US economy.

Bar healthcare  which was a bit of pain but the worse bits easily avoided by Obama car and not being a far fucking diabetic doleyscum...

In  general the U responds  to demand by paying more.

 

 

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

People scare them selves about the US economy.

Bar healthcare  which was a bit of pain but the worse bits easily avoided by Obama car and not being a far fucking diabetic doleyscum...

In  general the U responds  to demand by paying more.

Yeah with regards to the American healthcare system I'm a bit of a health nut when it comes to healthy eating so I'd like to think I'm virtually eliminating my risk of diabetes and siginficantly lowing my heart disease risk.

Always found it ironic how Americans simultaneously have expensive healthcare yet also seem to do everything in their power to make themselves as unhealthy as possible.

The US tech sector seems to be shitting the bed big time, but again compare the salaries paid there compared to the poverty wages in the UK.

[belfastchild]

10 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

To be fair we've been claiming it's 2007 for the last 5 years!

Meant it a bit differently from that. In 2007 a lot of dublin investors just came north to buy properties as Dublin was too expensive.
I know one couple who were selling a house had a viewing with a Dublin investor and he offered 10% under the current bid price in person (not supposed to do apparently). Opened a case full of cash in front of them when they said no.
At least 3 in my immediate area were repossessed by NAMA.

When youve mentioned indians etc in the past with regards to NI you also have to remember the school systems. Indians and muslims dont tend to send their kids to Catholic maintained schools. Its always the proddy ones or now the integrated ones. You have to be in the proddy/integrated catchment areas to have kids in the schools. Its not just a case of being in the right area for the right schools, it has to be the right type of schools.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Meant it a bit differently from that. In 2007 a lot of dublin investors just came north to buy properties as Dublin was too expensive.

Oh ffs so we're gonna have the Dublin investors flooding the NI market again...

Interesting development that a house fairly near my folks that was a repo has had so little interest over the last few months that it's going up for auction now. Something I've not seen happen for a good 12 years or so!

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

When youve mentioned indians etc in the past with regards to NI you also have to remember the school systems. Indians and muslims dont tend to send their kids to Catholic maintained schools. Its always the proddy ones or now the integrated ones. You have to be in the proddy/integrated catchment areas to have kids in the schools. Its not just a case of being in the right area for the right schools, it has to be the right type of schools.

Ah now thats interesting. Must be part of what's driving the price of these proddy areas up and up. And yeah the primary school I went to in the east was made into an 'integrated' school years ago.

Only one choice then, I'm gonna have to convert!

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Ah now thats interesting. Must be part of what's driving the price of these proddy areas up and up. And yeah the primary school I went to in the east was made into an 'integrated' school years ago.

Only one choice then, I'm gonna have to convert!

Schools have always been encouraged to have a quota of shall we say diverse pupils. That used to be gypos, temporary workers kids from England/ROI etc. It was then EEs. The Polish etc would tend to send their kids to catholic schools (being catholic) and pretty much being assured they were all white (although we dont have a huge ethnic minority anyway). The idea being that they might not be there for the long haul and maybe just a year or two in the school.
Thats still the case that the Catholic schools can get away with tagging the kids as foreign if they have one non-NI parent for any audit. Most of the 'polish' kids in primary schools now were born here or at the very least only really speak polish at home (if at all). My cousins kids are classified as foreign as their mum is EE even though he was on the Armagh minor board!
All that does away with the not living or born in the area stuff or having siblings who go to the school etc in terms of selection.

[spunko]

I thought proddy was offensive and what Catholics call protestants to piss them off. Shows what I know

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, spunko said:

I thought proddy was offensive and what Catholics call protestants to piss them off. Shows what I know

When I was pissed I used to do a great Norish routine with tp my (Oirish) Irish Uni mate.

Nae surrender to the Papist!

Im an actually rare old English catholic (non practising) i..e priest holes n all that. not some Paddy blow in from ~200y ago.

Oirish mate was a rare Oirishprotestant.

 

 

[One percent]

34 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Oh ffs so we're gonna have the Dublin investors flooding the NI market again...

Interesting development that a house fairly near my folks that was a repo has had so little interest over the last few months that it's going up for auction now. Something I've not seen happen for a good 12 years or so!

Ah now thats interesting. Must be part of what's driving the price of these proddy areas up and up. And yeah the primary school I went to in the east was made into an 'integrated' school years ago.

Only one choice then, I'm gonna have to convert!

Muslim?  

[Plan-b]

14 hours ago, darkmarket said:

I suspect investors won't be convinced by too many of the conversion proposals.

You don't need investors when you have the UK Government, if its the Current Thing, Woke, Green, EVs, any poor business model they'll likely be happy to spend other peoples money (Tax Payers) on it.

 

[Plan-b]

25 minutes ago, spunko said:

I thought proddy was offensive and what Catholics call protestants to piss them off. Shows what I know

In Scotland they used to add Dog to it for offensiveness. 'Proddy Dog'

[belfastchild]

24 minutes ago, spunko said:

I thought proddy was offensive and what Catholics call protestants to piss them off. Shows what I know

"Proud to be a prod" is one tagline.

Ironic really as it started because Protestants couldnt spell Protestants and changed it to Prodestants which got shortened.

[spygirl]

On 01/02/2024 at 18:24, Long time lurking said:

An anecdotal regarding the unintended/unforeseen consequence of help to buy 

Talking to a guy at work who's had a inheritance house sale fall through for for the third time in two years of it being on the market ,this time after 8 months from the initial offer being excepted

The guy that had made the offer was separated for his ex wife and kids ,but his name was still on the mortgage of the former family home ,the only way he could get the mortgage to buy the house he had made an offer on was to have his name removed from that mortgage, to do that the property would have to be remortgaged which would mean the help to buy portion would have to be paid back something his ex could not afford or get the finance to do =no mortgage for him probably a blessing in disguise, never the less what a shit show  

 

Unless MMR is scrapped - and the BoE will not let that happen quietly, then the whole housing market is now based on earnings atthe time of taking on a mortgage.

No more -  Well X (South) has always been expensive. You just have to stretch your finances to live  there ...

Now more - youll soon advance in your career and that 8x mortgage will not be so much......

You an work out how an towns housing market will perform by looking at how much the under ~35s earns.

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah with regards to the American healthcare system I'm a bit of a health nut when it comes to healthy eating so I'd like to think I'm virtually eliminating my risk of diabetes and siginficantly lowing my heart disease risk.

Always found it ironic how Americans simultaneously have expensive healthcare yet also seem to do everything in their power to make themselves as unhealthy as possible.

The US tech sector seems to be shitting the bed big time, but again compare the salaries paid there compared to the poverty wages in the UK.

The unhealthy rich Americans don't overlap much with unhealthy, poor Americans.

In terms of US tech, again -

[spygirl]

The tech sector earnings n share price went nuts in coof.

So, they recruited people by the boat load.

One, it makes them look like a good corp US citizen, esp when rest of USA were laying people off.

Two, it keeps the earnings/employee numbers below the level usgov agencies will sniff around.

They are doing some tidying up,  letting go of the girly n efnik team leaders/plant pot waterers.

Any org assuming that they'll pick up an ex MS amazon or Google SW head is deluding themselves, and will get a hard expensive lesson.

Edited February 3 by spygirl

[wherebee]

15 hours ago, spygirl said:

People scare them selves about the US economy.

Bar healthcare  which was a bit of pain but the worse bits easily avoided by Obama car and not being a far fucking diabetic doleyscum...

In  general the U responds  to demand by paying more.

 

 

no, healthcare is crippling if you get sick.  4 out of 5 small business bankruptcies pre COVID were due to medical bills - I remember researching the stat.

I also remember tales of people being in a car crash, in the ambo on the way to hospital, frantically googling to check if the hospital was in their insurance scheme or else they would be liable for millions.

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

no, healthcare is crippling if you get sick.  4 out of 5 small business bankruptcies pre COVID were due to medical bills - I remember researching the stat.

I also remember tales of people being in a car crash, in the ambo on the way to hospital, frantically googling to check if the hospital was in their insurance scheme or else they would be liable for millions.

If you get sick and are nonpension age. 65+ and medicare takes the bill.

 

90% of people in the US dont get sick.

Surel theres the AnE stuff.

There is an issuewith 3rd party car insurance instates which needs fixing.

Ttpe 2 diabetes is the biggy. And thats not being sick, its being a fat fucker.

 

 

[Wight Flight]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

no, healthcare is crippling if you get sick.  4 out of 5 small business bankruptcies pre COVID were due to medical bills - I remember researching the stat.

I also remember tales of people being in a car crash, in the ambo on the way to hospital, frantically googling to check if the hospital was in their insurance scheme or else they would be liable for millions.

You have to be careful not to listen t the msm on this.

The US has 5 times our population.

It spends $600bn on medicaid.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid

And $900bn on medicare.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)

We spend $180bn on the NHS. 

The US government spends over 50% more per head on public medical care than the UK.