The Friday punt

[BWW]

I' ve long noticed that Friday mornings, stocks I hold that are slowly moving up over the week will drop a few %. By end of day they're back to where they were at the start of the day. End may of course be after markets have closed for retail but the close price is usually achievable on the Monday as the stock continues it's trend upwards.

Makes sense since day traders dont want the risk of holding over the weekend.

Wondering whether I can take advantage of this by buying extra of something I hold anyway that fits this pattern and selling again later in the day or Monday. By only doing it with lth that you're happy to hold more of, you can just keep awhile if it continues down rather than crystallize the loss.

Partly scratching the itch to play.

Todays victim ABDN.L

Anyone want to play?

Proviso please dont risk more dosh than you can afford to lose!

 

[BWW]

buy ABDN 10.51

ca. 6k at 1.60

cost inc sd 1.61

numbets rounded.

Edited October 13, 2023 by BWW
oops just noticedits fri 13th not an auspicious day to start this.

[Loki]

YOLO

[afly]

Do you have a sell out target? (open was 166.10p) or just going strictly on time?

[BWW]

More time really, influenced by total holding, whether I really want more and my mood at 4pm.

Profit that I fancy taking around 4pm or Monday if not home in time. Dog has the trots so she may be in charge.

[azzuri82]

...picking up pennies in front of a steamroller?

[BWW]

2 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

...picking up pennies in front of a steamroller?

feeding the inner child.

but its not budged yet from where I bought.

half time scores:

me down 20 quid

chancellor cunt up 45 quid ( his is guaranteed too)

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, BWW said:

feeding the inner child.

but its not budged yet from where I bought.

half time scores:

me down 20 quid

chancellor cunt up 45 quid ( his is guaranteed too)

I used to that years ago, except it was around the time that america opened for trading, it worked well, until it didnt.

Many a long term strategy(? as if) was borne of a quick punt.

[Stuey]

If you have spotted the pattern, why has noone else? 

Tldr; Technicals are bullshit. Candlesticks too. 

[BWW]

10 minutes ago, Stuey said:

If you have spotted the pattern, why has noone else? 

Tldr; Technicals are bullshit. Candlesticks too. 

How's the ai computer gonna factor in how many times and at what exact moment the dog needs a shit?

score: 3 times so far. Debating whether to fast her for a day.

[Stuey]

21 minutes ago, BWW said:

How's the ai computer gonna factor in how many times and at what exact moment the dog needs a shit?

score: 3 times so far. Debating whether to fast her for a day.

It's interesting though.

My favourite anecdotes about something I noticed while trading prompt power (very short term as in 30 to 360 minutes ahead).

1) models would use Cloud Cover forecasts to predict demand from electric lighting. Good Science, right? Throw it into the model and forget about it.

However, fog is (correctly) classed as zero cloud cover as it is suspended vapour rather than formed clouds. But in reality acts as 100% cloud cover. But the models using algo weather models don't know that.

Therefore ahead of time I would go long electricity when fog was forecast. All those models would be expecting low demand. Instead people put their lights on as it was gloomy. Fog still causes system issues. 

1-0 @Stuey

 

2) novice traders would be put on shift 23rd Dec to 3rd January (as the experienced had booked leave before they started). They'd have stricter risk policies.

To be within the risk policies they'd trade at extremely minimal +ve expected P&L. But with high volatility. I'd take the slight -ve at the right times and clean up.

2-0 @Stuey

 

3) Rainfall. Weather-energy models don't really use this well and usually ignore it. They tend to focus on i) temperature, ii) wind chill, iii) solar gain. Other stuff is right down the list right?

But a persistently rainy day wicks away heat from buildings.

I spotted a trend that rainy days in London led to increased power demand. Why London? It's obviously a bit power user, but also the skyscraper bodyskin is a huge area to wick away heat from.

If I saw a persistently rainy day in the south in a couple of days, again I went long.

3-0 @Stuey

 

Sure I have more but this is why I am on £163k. 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Stuey

[BWW]

11 minutes ago, Stuey said:

It's interesting though.

My favourite anecdotes about something I noticed while trading prompt power (very short term as in 30 to 360 minutes ahead).

1) models would use Cloud Cover forecasts to predict demand from electric lighting. Good Science, right? Throw it into the model and forget about it.

However, fog is (correctly) classed as zero cloud cover as it is suspended vapour rather than formed clouds. But in reality acts as 100% cloud cover. But the models using algo weather models don't know that.

Therefore ahead of time I would go long electricity when fog was forecast. All those models would be expecting low demand. Instead people put their lights on as it was gloomy. Fog still causes system issues. 

1-0 @Stuey

 

2) novice traders would be put on shift 23rd Dec to 3rd January (as the experienced had booked leave before they started). They'd have stricter risk policies.

To be within the risk policies they'd trade at extremely minimal +ve expected P&L. But with high volatility. I'd take the slight -ve at the right times and clean up.

2-0 @Stuey

 

3) Rainfall. Weather-energy models don't really use this well and usually ignore it. They tend to focus on i) temperature, ii) wind chill, iii) solar gain. Other stuff is right down the list right?

But a persistently rainy day wicks away heat from buildings.

I spotted a trend that rainy days in London led to increased power demand. Why London? It's obviously a bit power user, but also the skyscraper bodyskin is a huge area to wick away heat from.

If I saw a persistently rainy day in the south in a couple of days, again I went long.

3-0 @Stuey

 

Sure I have more but this is why I am on £163k. 

 

 

i always smile when people wanting to play billy big bollocks point out they have less than me. still feeling poor about the billionaires here though and noting they haven't identified themelves.

you do know talking about how much you have is considered rathrr vulgar?

tldr ( back at ya) but lookd vaguely interesting so i'll look later.

[Stuey]

2 minutes ago, BWW said:

i always smile when people wanting to play billy big bollocks point out they have less than me. still feeling poor about the billionaires here though and noting they haven't identified themelves.

you do know talking about how much you have is considered rathrr vulgar?

tldr ( back at ya) but lookd vaguely interesting so i'll look later.

I look at a billionaire and usually feel pity. Wouldn't swap my place. 

My best investments are health, family and friends. 

Knowing I can live off JSA and savings interest is a nice backstop. 

 

[afly]

 

[BWW]

4pm dogs stopped mithering for a shit. maybe i need to go squat on the grass in the park instead.

#mustrememberthisisnotindia

[BWW]

currently crashing. its that stuey selling his 167k worth innit. 

conclusion. hold until stuey's out firepower.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, BWW said:

currently crashing. its that stuey selling his 167k worth innit. 

He was probably implying that he earns 167K in a job, he is so good at trading that he needs a full time job for income.

Wish someone would pay me £3200 a week to talk shit.

[BWW]

16.22 sell offer from broker 157. pass.

[BWW]

16.26 right direction ..158

[BWW]

16.29 sniper time .... still 158 broker not keen to buy.

seeya monday then.

[leonardratso]

how did 163K go to 167K in 3 posts?

F150 is on £230K a month you know.

Just knock on the right hand padded wall and shout round to him in the next cell, he will tell you straight, no bull from F150.

Edited October 13, 2023 by leonardratso

[nirvana]

6 hours ago, BWW said:

buy ABDN 10.51

you're mad buying today, markets been a sell since CPI yesterday.....

Disclaimer: I don't follow UK market particularly

- haha just checked the price, it's down and I didn't cheat......I just knew from Nasdaq behaviour.....probability Mr Gambler, probability

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

you're mad buying today, markets been a sell since CPI yesterday.....

Disclaimer: I don't follow UK market particularly

- haha just checked the price, it's down and I didn't cheat......I just knew from Nasdaq behaviour.....probability Mr Gambler, probability

I'm shorting Nat Gas candles as I've spotted a doji 

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Stuey said:

Sure I have more but this is why I am on £163k. 

what exactly are you doing Mr Big Dick?

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Stuey said:

I've spotted a doji