Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[goldbug9999]

On 10/02/2024 at 12:37, DurhamBorn said:

Notice they say "in site of pay increasing 6.5%",but that pay is taxed at 33% so a 4.5% increase and bennies went up 10%.

The gap is so huge you would need to cut bennies in half for disability and housing bennies etc to make a difference.

When they say "britons abandon work" when they mean is "britons abandon working for fuck all"

[Funn3r]

18 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

He sounds very nervous

He has some sort of health condition which affects his voice.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/02/11/joe-biden-age-legitimate-issue-says-hillary-clinton/

You see when the narrative changes by those with vested interests…

and when you start to see the narrative starting to change being pushed by the media on these shores…

 

You know we’re being set up to reach a ‘certain’ destination. 
 

That’s why I make bets like this to show up it up for the farce for what it is.

 

Just a week ago this was a conspiracy theory by the far right however.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/michelle-obama-biden-karl-rove-b2492483.html

Edited February 11 by Lightscribe

[Funn3r]

19 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You know we’re being set up to reach a ‘certain’ destination. 

I was having drinks with ultranormie woke friends a couple of nights ago.  Surprised to hear them criticise Joe Biden as being too old for the job, declining facilities, they should find someone else, etc. I find it hard to listen to them but I am fairly sure that quite recently in previous drinkies they thought he was great; years of experience, in control, a steady choice against bad orange man. 

Then I remembered that they are first class MSM repeater stations and it all became clear.

I'm still not getting into the rip-off betting again this time.

[marceau]

22 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/02/11/joe-biden-age-legitimate-issue-says-hillary-clinton/

You see when the narrative changes by those with vested interests…

and when you start to see the narrative starting to change being pushed by the media on these shores…

 

You know we’re being set up to reach a ‘certain’ destination. 
 

That’s why I make bets like this to show up it up for the farce for what it is.

 

Just a week ago this was a conspiracy theory by the far right however.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/michelle-obama-biden-karl-rove-b2492483.html

Are you going to cash that one early, or hold it to the end?

If the US machine wants war, a 'contained' Trump presidency would seem to best serve their needs. Although the place is so nuts that anything's possible.

[Lightscribe]

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/25869985/single-mum-kids-thailand-parent/amp/
 

Who’s going to tell her? 

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, marceau said:

Are you going to cash that one early, or hold it to the end?

If the US machine wants war, a 'contained' Trump presidency would seem to best serve their needs. Although the place is so nuts that anything's possible.

Im going to cash out as soon as she’s nominated. It’s a close call however to hold.

Trump is a cert to win, but I don’t think he will be ‘allowed’ to win. Ukraine funding would stop overnight and peace talks with Russia would entail. That’s not in the playbook.

[sancho panza]

On 10/02/2024 at 08:54, spunko said:

Thanks. I am looking to live off the interest so can't really choose anything that pays out at the end of the term. I'm not that good at budgeting sadly! 

I will look into NS&I but presumably that only covers up to 85k too?

as @DurhamBorn suggests ,poss consider a nice range of equities.Maybe DB could add a few to the lsit below.As ever,thanks for rpviding this wodnerful bastion of free speech.I've learned so mcuh down here .mor than I ever did at school.

obviously dyor etc but maybe(at todays prices or thereabouts).I've specifically focused on where I think tehre's value in the amrekt and related the purchase size to percevied value hence eg BAts holding 2x size IMPs,If IMPs were lower on a value basis,Id skew towards them instead.

Baccy              

10% BATs

5% IMPs =15%

oil

10% BP

4% Shell

3% Harbour=17%

EMs

10% SEDY

3% IBZL

3% BRLA

3% TEI=19%

Potash

2% Nutrien

2% Yara

2% Incitec Pivot

2% K&S=8%

Telecoms

BT 2%

Orange 3%

Proximus 2%

AT&T 2%

Telefonica 5%

Vod 5%=19%

Goldies/Extractive

Newmont 5%

Sibanye 3%

Barrick 3%

Ecora(royalty streamer) 2%

Fres 2%=15%

 

All in all thats 93%.Some of these have very decent ,sustaianble divis.there's risk but then terhe's risk sat in sterling getting 5% interest while CPI runs at 5% and the real rate of inflation runs at 7%.

jsut soem ideas

If I can be of any help PM me.

 

On 10/02/2024 at 21:34, M S E Refugee said:

It's totally fucked up.

My alcoholic benefit claiming neighbour broke her hip a couple of months ago, she sends her African carers across the road to buy bottles of wine.

And in the past two weeks she has called the Ambulance out three times, I assume she does it when she's totally shitfaced.

My Father in Law had to wait four hours for an Ambulance when he broke his hip, no wonder he had to wait so long with knobheads like my nuisance neighbour. 

Ambo goes to a lot of 'frequent fliers'.In fact NHS does.

Huge amounts of moeny are utterly wasted by the top down management style that's motivated by politcal posturing rather than patient care/societal health otucomes.

Take the coof.Senior manamgenet loved the theatre of it.People who in a free market would sink into anonymity were able to tell 98% of the population what they could do and when,that they had to mask their smiles etc.Cue power trip.Then we find out it had the fatality rate of flu and that the dance videos were jsut some sort of bizarre cult display because clincians had no patients because errrrr....it wasnt a global pandemic by any traditiaonl measure.

eg 2 we have laods of diversity coodrinators etc, there are huge queues to see GPs.It's about priorities.

I could go on.It's rather pointless.

10 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

My parents informed me that a house we nearly rented at £1600pm a year ago has been put on the market for £550k.

Assuming a 10% deposit and 25 years:

At a 4.5% it's £2750pm

Total repayment £826,087

At 6% it's £3190pm

Total repayment £957,967

These figures are a fucking joke.

 

If I borrowed £100k it would be £556pm to repay £167,683.

Prices this high, along with the well-documented (here) government theft and spending have destroyed what could be a humming British real economy. Imagine the available liquidity without what's been done to us for the last 30 years.

 

(1600x12)/550,000=3.49% gross yield.

you had a good deal there given you offloaded the upkeep to the LL

I sued to think I'd buy one day but unless pour gross yield moves north of 7.5% then I dont think we will.Rather keep  BATs/BP/Shell shares yielding 9%/10%

Edited February 12 by sancho panza

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, Castlevania said:

More clown takes from Richard Murphy with regards to Rishi Sunak’s tax return. He seems to think that people would willingly pay 57% tax and not fuck off offshore.
 

 

Hunt's tax:

 

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

My parents informed me that a house we nearly rented at £1600pm a year ago has been put on the market for £550k.

Assuming a 10% deposit and 25 years:

At a 4.5% it's £2750pm

Total repayment £826,087

At 6% it's £3190pm

Total repayment £957,967

These figures are a fucking joke.

 

If I borrowed £100k it would be £556pm to repay £167,683.

Prices this high, along with the well-documented (here) government theft and spending have destroyed what could be a humming British real economy. Imagine the available liquidity without what's been done to us for the last 30 years.

 

Over 25 years? How quaint. Try at least 40.

 

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Im going to cash out as soon as she’s nominated. It’s a close call however to hold.

Trump is a cert to win, but I don’t think he will be ‘allowed’ to win. Ukraine funding would stop overnight and peace talks with Russia would entail. That’s not in the playbook.

Then again he seems to offer a larger new front with China.  Time to move on says the law of marginal returns, according to Pareto.

[Noallegiance]

49 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

as @DurhamBorn cosnider a nice range of equities.Maybe DB could add a few to the lsit below.As ever,thanks for rpviding this wodnerful bastion of free speech.I've learned so mcuh down here .mor than I ever did at school.

obviously dyor etc but maybe(at todays prices or thereabouts).I've specifically focused on where I think tehre's value in the amrekt and related the purchase size to percevied value hence eg BAts holding 2x size IMPs,If IMPs were lower on a value basis,Id skew towards them instead.

Baccy              

10% BATs

5% IMPs =15%

oil

10% BP

4% Shell

3% Harbour=17%

EMs

10% SEDY

3% IBZL

3% BRLA

3% TEI=19%

Potash

2% Nutrien

2% Yara

2% Incitec Pivot

2% K&S=8%

Telecoms

BT 2%

Orange 3%

Proximus 2%

AT&T 2%

Telefonica 5%

Vod 5%=19%

Goldies/Extractive

Newmont 5%

Sibanye 3%

Barrick 3%

Ecora(royalty streamer) 2%

Fres 2%=15%

 

All in all thats 93%.Some of these have very decent ,sustaianble divis.there's risk but then terhe's risk sat in sterling getting 5% interest while CPI runs at 5% and the real rate of inflation runs at 7%.

jsut soem ideas

If I can be of any help PM me.

 

Ambo goes to a lot of 'frequent fliers'.In fact NHS does.

Huge amounts of moeny are utterly wasted by the top down management style that's motivated by politcal posturing rather than patient care/societal health otucomes.

Take the coof.Senior manamgenet loved the theatre of it.People who in a free market would sink into anonymity were able to tell 98% of the population what they could do and when,that they had to mask their smiles etc.Cue power trip.Then we find out it had the fatality rate of flu and that the dance videos were jsut some sort of bizarre cult display because clincians had no patients because errrrr....it wasnt a global pandemic by any traditiaonl measure.

eg 2 we have laods of diversity coodrinators etc, there are huge queues to see GPs.It's about priorities.

I could go on.It's rather pointless.

(1600x12)/550,000=3.49% gross yield.

you had a good deal there given you offloaded the upkeep to the LL

I sued to think I'd buy one day but unless pour gross yield moves north of 7.5% then I dont think we will.Rather keep  BATs/BP/Shell shares yielding 9%/10%

I've got an even better deal now. Much nicer area. Way better location. Much bigger house. Place was on the market for 4 months at £2200pm. Got it for £1950pm.

For sale it would be £700k+ right now.

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s why they pay her the big bucks 

 

common purpose woman in all her glory.  Does she come across to you as a very intelligent, numbers focused brainiax?  Or a pussy pass employee, promoted through several levels due to group identity?

I am going to fucking LOVE the collapse.

[sleepwello'nights]

19 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I've got an even better deal now. Much nicer area. Way better location. Much bigger house. Place was on the market for 4 months at £2200pm. Got it for £1950pm.

For sale it would be £700k+ right now.

How much did your landlord pay for it? What is the yield on his purchase price?

[wherebee]

55 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hunt's tax:

 

That's obscene.  Almost 50% of his income on tax, even with (presumably) good accountant advice.

Add on top of that council tax, VAT, etc, and he's deffo hitting 65% taxation, if not more.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, wherebee said:

That's obscene.  Almost 50% of his income on tax, even with (presumably) good accountant advice.

Add on top of that council tax, VAT, etc, and he's deffo hitting 65% taxation, if not more.

37.5% of income declared paid as tax. 38.1% if you add in the foreign tax, which we should do.

[Long time lurking]

28 minutes ago, wherebee said:

common purpose woman in all her glory.  Does she come across to you as a very intelligent, numbers focused brainiax?  Or a pussy pass employee, promoted through several levels due to group identity?

I am going to fucking LOVE the collapse.

Shes a bought and paid for liar

There`s more than a few that worked with here in the early days of her career and they have all said she is actually very intelligent none of them are the arse liking types either Jeffery Sachs being one of them,this IMO makes it even worse     

Edited February 11 by Long time lurking

[Noallegiance]

57 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

How much did your landlord pay for it? What is the yield on his purchase price?

Fuck knows. As far as I know it's mortgage free. They're old. Had it in the family since build in 1980s.

[sleepwello'nights]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Fuck knows. As far as I know it's mortgage free. They're old. Had it in the family since build in 1980s.

The reality could be that his yield is much higher than the yield you've calculated on the current estimated market price. 

[wherebee]

8 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The reality could be that his yield is much higher than the yield you've calculated on the current estimated market price. 

Indeed - I know someone that inherited a coastal flat in the 90's, had rented it out since then to the same couple.  They are charging below market rates but for a mortgage free property which they might want to retire into sometime, the returns are fine - covers running costs, sinking fund (block of flats, so owners can be liable for big tickets), and the costs of heating, etc, are paid by someone else.

 

[sancho panza]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/12/more-than-11-million-britons-have-less-than-1000-in-savings

More than 11 million Britons have less than £1,000 in savings

More than 11 million working-age people in Britain don’t have basic “rainy day” savings of at least £1,000, according to a report that warns that the poorest households are struggling to build up financial resilience amid the cost of living crisis.

The Resolution Foundation said people across Britain faced a “triple savings challenge” of insufficient savings, an inability to cope financially with major life events such as family breakdown, and inadequate retirement incomes.

It said 11.2 million people lived in households that had savings of less than £1,000, accounting for about one in three working-age households. As many as half lived in the poorest third of households in Britain.

In a report with the abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, the foundation estimated that the UK had a £74bn shortfall of funds saved for emergencies and for retirement compared with a country in which every family had at least three months of income kept in precautionary savings.

[RJT1979]

Only thing holding house prices up is belief in wage increases and huge inflation to devalue remaining mortgages. Take this belief away and its over.

[GTM]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The Resolution Foundation said people across Britain faced a “triple savings challenge” of insufficient savings, an inability to cope financially with major life events such as family breakdown, and inadequate retirement incomes.

But the way to solve inadequate retirement incomes is:

“We should also offer people more flexibility over their pension pots, as other countries do, in order to help them with difficult circumstances. These reforms will improve families’ financial resilience during their working lives and into retirement too.”

Ah, a lot of word salad to suggest letting the state steal people's pension pots while they are working as well as when they retire.

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, GTM said:

But the way to solve inadequate retirement incomes is:

“We should also offer people more flexibility over their pension pots, as other countries do, in order to help them with difficult circumstances. These reforms will improve families’ financial resilience during their working lives and into retirement too.”

Ah, a lot of word salad to suggest letting the state steal people's pension pots while they are working as well as when they retire.

indeed, in Australia every now and then they allow the young to access their super to put in a deposit for a house.  Now, you can argue the ups and downs of that, but fundamentally it's to keep the ponzi scheme going.

[Pip321]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

Indeed - I know someone that inherited a coastal flat in the 90's, had rented it out since then to the same couple.  They are charging below market rates but for a mortgage free property which they might want to retire into sometime, the returns are fine - covers running costs, sinking fund (block of flats, so owners can be liable for big tickets), and the costs of heating, etc, are paid by someone else.

 

So many factors at play….it like when people think a brilliant thread like this should give us all one answer when infact it depends on our individual circumstances as to how it applies to us and how we translate and invest.

I guess the yield should be the yield on todays price regardless…..same as working out a divi. The reason is because that yield today can be turned into capital (and the place sold) at todays price. However what’s my investment worth today to me…if I sell for £250k I will only get £200k due to CGT. So realistically the value to me is £200k and only £250k if I pass to my kids. 

what you say is completely correct, lots of price distortions. I have a bungalow where I charge £600 pcm for the last 15 years….it should be £1000 by now. Why? 

Because effectively the tenants have paid my mortgage, my maintenance and more directly the rates, water rates and heated the place too.  All whilst I just went to work and earned my livelihood….they effectively have bought the house for me 🍻

Where things change is if I had wanted an income rather than holding as a self funding investment then inflation etc would have kicked in. 

The truly leveraged then go on an extreme where they work out the yield based purely on their deposit…..of course they miss the point that their exposure is 100% of the property price and not just their deposit. But the long term leveraged are deluded in many ways so best ignore them😆

Edited February 12 by Pip321