Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im there now.I grew up in the poorest town in England because Thatcher closed our factory,yet i voted for her and adored her.Why?,because she was right and her vision matched my own.It was hard but the prize was real,individual economic freedom.Now?,every polo in the west is my enemy.They despise me and my children,and they want to kill them as cannon fodder.Putin and Russians are no enemy of mine.If they cross the Humber as invaders then yes,but until then no.I see my homeland invaded now,the threats to my children are not Russians but stabbie,ugly,filthy smelly Africans and Middle Easterns.The government call them commies,yet they are nowhere near as commie as us.Luckily their reach still has not changed life much where i live.Its there of course with illegals,but still ok,but you feel the flood coming.Its pretty obvious we need a bloody civil war to remove them,and thats the only thing i would be prepared to fight and die for,but it still might be early for that.Its closer than many think.Likely why they have turned most young men into faggots or carb filled sacks of shit,remove th threat.

Some of our young men might join up and fight, if the army did rainbow coloured uniforms? In battle we could put them in the front row, the enemy might not be able to shoot straight while they are laughing.

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Meanwhile one of my Romanian housemates is burning all his documents in the garden this morning, he's on his way home after six years as there's no work anymore.

This is all going to end well.

Credit card and loan statements?

[Joncrete Cungle]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

That was the most surprising part.  These anecdotal posts are my favourites when they are from established posters whether they are about this, or oil, or the pandemic that wasn't.  

Does he have any Romanian friends over here?  If so, any idea what they are doing?

A few Romanians I know have gone back to Romania permanently in the last  couple of months. Polish couple returned to Poland and a Ukranian lad who has been here five or six years is planning to return to Ukraine this year.

[Loki]

Just now, Joncrete Cungle said:

a Ukranian lad who has been here five or six years is planning to return to Ukraine this year.

[spunko]

29 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Tales from the coalface this weekend...

Went to pick the kids up from school yesterday, three loud mums are on the playground having a rant about getting various kids into special needs schools and units and getting diagnosis. From what I could hear (they were loud) sounded like all three of them had been doing it for over a decade, and had at least two kids each who were write offs. Just in benefits alone those three dollops must be costing 100k+ PA. Getting their spawn taxis every day to whichever taxpayer funded retreat they get to go on is probably at least 50k.

Meanwhile one of my Romanian housemates is burning all his documents in the garden this morning, he's on his way home after six years as there's no work anymore.

This is all going to end well.

Out of interest what work did the Romanian guy do generally?

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

He goes back a couple of times a year to see his wife and kids. I have mentioned it before. Now he flies to Poland and catches a bus to Ukraine.

[Castlevania]

43 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

 

Meanwhile one of my Romanian housemates is burning all his documents in the garden this morning, he's on his way home after six years as there's no work anymore.

This is all going to end well.

Have people started washing their cars themselves?

[King Penda]

37 minutes ago, Loki said:

That was the most surprising part.  These anecdotal posts are my favourites when they are from established posters whether they are about this, or oil, or the pandemic that wasn't.  

Does he have any Romanian friends over here?  If so, any idea what they are doing?

My Rumania friend works 24 hours a week and goes to university her boy friend is Portuguese he also works 24 hours a week goes to university he plans to do a masters after.

[King Penda]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Have people started washing their cars themselves?

Mines got mould on it doubt it’s had a wash in 4 years.

[Lightscribe]

26 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

A few Romanians I know have gone back to Romania permanently in the last  couple of months. Polish couple returned to Poland and a Ukranian lad who has been here five or six years is planning to return to Ukraine this year.

This is something I’ve outlined on here (being at the coal face in London) several times.

The amount of EU workers leaving will leave gaping holes in our service and construction sector, and show that our economy for what is really is… i.e swimming naked as the tides gone out.

Our glorious leaders will no doubt jump at the chance to blame it on those little Englanders that voted for Brexit and put forward a case of rejoining now they’ve learnt their lesson.

[spygirl]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Here are two numbers. Can any financial analyst (besides @DurhamBorn)  draw the link between them? As in … the direct link??

2024

 

2023

The FT pension loss is a gormless FT journo causing trouble.

https://www.ft.com/content/8518cbbc-aaa6-4432-a73c-3d3688a17f3f

However, the analysis also found that pension schemes ended 2022 in overall better financial health owing to their liabilities falling more steeply than the drop in asset values, as higher gilt yields reduced the cost of pension promises.

Liabilities fell in aggregate by 33 per cent, or around £575bn, in contrast to the 24 per cent drop in asset values.

Comments

Pension Assets fell, but pension fund liabilities fell further. There is no real news story here. The net picture is the only thing relevant Recommended 56 Reply Share Report Notable 2 DAYS AGO  

In reply to XMsquared Wouldn’t it have been better if assets did not fall and liabilities fell? Recommend 9 Reply Share Report

JoeBlow 2 DAYS AGO   In reply to Notable That would have happened only if the pension funds had successfully wagered on a rate rise. Not sure they should be doing that Recommended 12 Reply Share Report

Mark Carnage 2 DAYS AGO   In reply to JoeBlow Indeed, hedging their liabilities in large part was the strategy. This story relegates the greater fall in liabilities (and hence improvement in funding position) to halfway down at best. Pretty tabloid stuff. The LDI 'crisis' uncovered significant weaknesses in controls around leveraged hedging, but this concept was almost inevitable and had there been a more controlled upward move in yields would have been managed ok....still down to Truss and Kwarteng I'm afraid.

 

The pension funds were forced into uk bonds by the regulator, as tgey were safe.

No bond is safe during zirp

[Axeman123]

10 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

 I imagine there will be a big help to buy type scheme coming in March.  

OBR (via a freelancing article by one of their people) are strongly signalling that spending cuts are needed, and that maximising immigration isn't a silver bullet. I would be very surprised if we see HTB or similar.

https://archive.is/9aPrH

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

As the centrifugal force of the clown world vortex increases, it separates the particulates. Politics, economic and government actions become more chaotic. The agenda begins to show itself in plain sight.

I like that description, a lot.

[Calcutta]

As far as I can see the Polish, established ones are staying, usually in secure jobs, mortgages on new builds, little side hustles so they'll be fine. The gypsies will be staying, they overcrowded houses and have learned how to squeeze the benefits for every penny. The Romanians tend to work in the lowest jobs, recycling centres, food production, dirty exploitative shit that nobody else wants to do. They're hired and fired at will. My housemate has been here six years, he has had a few weeks off here and there was always some sort of shit work he could do.

This time he says it's different, the factory he usually works at told the 100 or so agency they were going and not to expect to come back. He can't find anything else, has been trying for a couple of weeks and says it's pointless. I told him to claim benefits and pretend he's depressed but he won't have it, would rather be back home at least he can get a job there.

I mentioned Germany to him and the other Romanian guy (whose adult children are in Germany) told us to forget it, Germany's fucked as well. 

These are boys who will ride a bike for half hour to a shift shovelling rotten household waste for minimum wage then get fucked off after a couple of hours and come back the next day for more abuse. If they're leaving it's curtains.

[spygirl]

16 hours ago, spunko said:

Has anyone got any insight or opinion on Aldermore, Shawbrook and Leeds Building Society please for savings? I am looking to fold my business and put the cash into a mix of these three as they all pay ~5.1% AER on savings at the moment.

Ive saved with Aldermore before pussied out after things got a bit iffy in 2013/2014 and I thought they were going under, but it seems they're still going.

Leeds BuildingSociety is one of the two that were doing all the FHL lending.

Barge pole.

Keep under fsa compo limits as its going under.

[Calcutta]

Afaik the car washes are like the EE shops and Turkish barbers, a front for shenanigans rather than productive employment 

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

keep your nominal amount but with greatly reduced purchasing power.

ironically the exact same outcome if you hold sterling outside NS&I and it goes pop necessitating the bailout.

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Afaik the car washes are like the EE shops and Turkish barbers, a front for shenanigans rather than productive employment 

Local one near me was Albanians.  The one I spoke to had reasonable English and was more pleasant than the average Brit you might meet doing a job like that.  They're possibly just the boots on the ground of course

[onlyme]

27 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

This is something I’ve outlined on here (being at the coal face in London) several times.

The amount of EU workers leaving will leave gaping holes in our service and construction sector, and show that our economy for what is really is… i.e swimming naked as the tides gone out.

Our glorious leaders will no doubt jump at the chance to blame it on those little Englanders that voted for Brexit and put forward a case of rejoining now they’ve learnt their lesson.

The chance to work 5 or 6 years of labour rate arbitrage was always the main draw - the sums earned enough to in many cases be enough to outbid locals on return and set yurself up for life. We've churned through cheap labour from pretty much every european accession state (and further afield).

Construction is getting hit in the nuts, new build as well as lack of churn from the rest of market, plenty of the ones I know in the market are now not booked up for a year or two (full build or extensions) and even the jobbing trades are struggling. You get that this time of year in regards the latter, but pretty sure we'll see lack of demand follow through for the rest of the year and beyond. After a few years repairs / renewals build up, they have to  be tackled at some point and the market comes back as well as a trun in residential new build and the sales market churn, but by then many more trades will have left the market/retired, same old boom and bust.

Edited February 10 by onlyme

[goldbug9999]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

It depends if you believe the Government can cover the £85000 if things go tits up.

I don't know how many of their 24 million customers have more than £85000 but I find it difficult to believe that the £85000 guarantee is nothing more than a mechanism to gain investors trust, that will essentially be a worthless promise.

Youl get your 85K but will be worth fuck all due to you and millions of others getting newly printed money to cover it.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Youl get your 85K but will be worth fuck all due to you and millions of others getting newly printed money to cover it.

And/or devalued sterling given the rest of the shite likely to be happening at tge same time.  Currencies are not only a risk, they have been a real risk.  People used to first feel poorer going overseas (so not much of a real terms HPI, wage rise, etc) and now they feel poorer even at home.  The long road to impoverishment.

[Calcutta]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

Local one near me was Albanians.  The one I spoke to had reasonable English and was more pleasant than the average Brit you might meet doing a job like that.  They're possibly just the boots on the ground of course

3x I know of, all albos, one has a habit of crashing expensive cars which is an interesting business model, one has about a dozen workers who wash no cars and have set up an encampment in the woods behind it. The other one has a well deserved reputation for stealing anything anyone is stupid enough to leave in their car.

The Albanian mafia are probably the top criminal organisation in the world. They're unstoppable, I'd love to know what bank they use.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

To go with that report we have this..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/09/frustrated-businesses-staff-abroad-britons-abandon-work/?li_source=LI&li_medium=for_you

 

Notice they say "in site of pay increasing 6.5%",but that pay is taxed at 33% so a 4.5% increase and bennies went up 10%.

The gap is so huge you would need to cut bennies in half for disability and housing bennies etc to make a difference.

[DurhamBorn]

59 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Mines got mould on it doubt it’s had a wash in 4 years.

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Have people started washing their cars themselves?

The car wash in Preston I know of is paying £60 a day to the foreigners working there according to one Romanian I work with (he knows a few who have worked there / work there).

A couple of years of inflation + no payrise and suddenly the rapidly improving Polish and Romanian economies are a lot more tempting. The car wash in Southport has had to put wages up to £80 per 12 hour day.

[Joncrete Cungle]

39 minutes ago, Loki said:

Local one near me was Albanians.  The one I spoke to had reasonable English and was more pleasant than the average Brit you might meet doing a job like that.  They're possibly just the boots on the ground of course

They will nick ANYTHING of value they spot in your car while cleaning it. The only people the Romanian gypsies are afraid of crossing.