Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Kendo]

15 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

Well spotted. It's so obvious when you know. 

Euuuuk! Maybe not :-

Strange, works fine for me and I don’t subscribe.

[wherebee]

22 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

Well spotted. It's so obvious when you know. 

Euuuuk! Maybe not :-

'discourages unemployed from looking for jobs'.

 

That shows they still don't get it.  They think the unemployed are a different class.

The sub header should have been 'post pandemic shift in welfare and taxes breaks the link between work and reward even further, think tank warns'

[MrFanciful]

5 hours ago, XswampyX said:

Well spotted. It's so obvious when you know. 

Euuuuk! Maybe not :-

You can do a search on web.archive.org and someone has probably archived it

https://web.archive.org/web/20240311152108/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/11/four-million-abandoning-work-permanently-benefits-surge/

[GTM]

Ah, there's that pesky reality intruding on 100% bullshit again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68538951

Of course we're still playing in fantasy world.

"The new plants will be capable of operating efficiently for just an hour or two at a time to fill in the gaps from other power sources, the government said.

The plan is they will be built by private investors."

Please private investors put up billions of pounds to build a lot of infrastructure we don't want to use, unless we have to (which we will (plenty)). Oh and the next probable Government is implacably opposed to these plans, so there's a better than evens chance they'll fuck you over. Especially since we all need money to give to workshy scum.

Anybody who invests a red cent in this needs their head read.

[RupertT]

1 hour ago, GTM said:

Ah, there's that pesky reality intruding on 100% bullshit again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68538951

Of course we're still playing in fantasy world.

"The new plants will be capable of operating efficiently for just an hour or two at a time to fill in the gaps from other power sources, the government said.

The plan is they will be built by private investors."

Please private investors put up billions of pounds to build a lot of infrastructure we don't want to use, unless we have to (which we will (plenty)). Oh and the next probable Government is implacably opposed to these plans, so there's a better than evens chance they'll fuck you over. Especially since we all need money to give to workshy scum.

Anybody who invests a red cent in this needs their head read.

They'll make up anything at this point, in the (vain) hope of saving themselves at the election.  No chance of this actually happening. 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

'discourages unemployed from looking for jobs'.

 

That shows they still don't get it.  They think the unemployed are a different class.

The sub header should have been 'post pandemic shift in welfare and taxes breaks the link between work and reward even further, think tank warns'

They really are laughable.Its the biggest pincer move ever to destroy our economy and it was done 100% because they monetised welfare that they still deny.That forced more and more onto bennies until they cannot monetise anymore,so they go after saved Labour.My roadmap is still almost vertical to collapse,but i think they will consume a huge amount of private savings first.

[Chewing Grass]

40 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They really are laughable.Its the biggest pincer move ever to destroy our economy and it was done 100% because they monetised welfare that they still deny.That forced more and more onto bennies until they cannot monetise anymore,so they go after saved Labour.My roadmap is still almost vertical to collapse,but i think they will consume a huge amount of private savings first.

How will they destroy private savings?

Forcing Pension Schemes to invest in Crap.

Pissing people off so the give up and retire early.

Taxing a bigger percent of drawn pension monies.

 

[BadAlchemy]

17 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

How will they destroy private savings?

Forcing Pension Schemes to invest in Crap.

Pissing people off so the give up and retire early.

Taxing a bigger percent of drawn pension monies.

 

High tax, frozen allowances, pointless ULEZ / climate change taxes etc etc.. making sure everyone needs to stay running on their little hamster wheel trying to keep up with it all and unable to build any savings/ capital of their own. My own situation, as an example... having been able to build up savings I've able to retire early to look after an elderly relative who would otherwise need a care home. All that QE money that ended up in her house will therefore soon pass to me and my brother instead of going to care home fees and me, in the meantime, slaving away and carrying on paying PAYE/NI/Corp tax etc. If the brother doesnt piss his share up the wall, then his children will soon get a share of it... have a chance of owning a place of their own, paying off student debts or whatever...getting themselves off their little hamster wheels. UK government fucking hates people like me doing this... they want all that QE money going back to them in various taxes and all the plebs running round their little  hamster wheels paying tax until they drop dead.

[M S E Refugee]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

How will they destroy private savings?

Forcing Pension Schemes to invest in Crap.

Pissing people off so the give up and retire early.

Taxing a bigger percent of drawn pension monies.

 

There's a trend at our place for people to draw their pension at 55 then work part-time.

I suppose this will cut the wage bill at Royal Mail as the new starters are on inferior terms.

Edited March 12 by M S E Refugee

[Lightscribe]

One for you DB, combining your pastimes.

[Axeman123]

8 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Next time Rishi Sunak gives a speech shut your eyes and the sound of the voice you will hear is Tony Blair. This has been more or less the recipe for electoral success since 1997 whichever party was winning at the polls. The likes of Reform want to wind the clock back to the Thatcher era but while they  may have an apparently socially conservative agenda their retro Tory Boy leadership is going to be a tough sell in the Red Wall as Rochdale proved. Worse unlike Thatcher they don’t have giveaways like Right To Buy or Privatisation shares with which to buy aspirational working class votes. Dare I say it what a lot of voters of that sort would like is a socially conservative but economically left wing government. The British electoral system seems determined to deny them that choice. There is nothing like  Germany’s Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in the U.K. I leave it to people to decide why that might be the case.

Yes on Tony Blair

I agree the current leadership of the party turns Red wall stomachs, but BJ proved that with the right policy platform (and to a far lesser extent than the media claim, a degree of charisma) those voters could hold their nose. Allegedly BJ is now going to campaign for Pishy in the Red Wall, although if the party thinks BJ fronting their current policy is a silver bullet they are in for a big dissappointment. BJ is also likely just playing the party loyalist while he sharpens his knife.

There are two distinct types of economic leftism in this country. The traditional protectionist and trade unionist type in the Red Wall, and the globalist Blairites in Islington etc. The gap between them is greater than existed between Scargill and Thatcher IMO, but the legacy parties cling onto the left/right model not because it accurately represents reality but simply because all their university political science courses are rooted in it. You see the same with govts trying to twist Ukraine/Russia into the cold-war model, as they understand that paradigm.

The electoral system has been gamed by the media/thinktank/political class to provide full employment for its members and permanent government by them, using a two party model. "Vote for the shit sandwhich to keep the other lot out!" is their rallying cry, along with "You might hate me and what I have done to this country, but the other lot will be 10x worse!". Social conservatism and very mild socialism would dominate and either result in a one party state (and 75% unemployment among the media/thinktank/political class as a result), or two partys with similar platforms allowing voters to vote on what they want precisely rather than what they don't want broadly.

[Democorruptcy]

First we had the Mortgage Charter to enable people to stay in homes they can't really afford, swap them over to Interest Only or extend the mortgage terms etc., now we have the Debt Fairness Charter to help people who owe money to Central Governbankment:

Quote

 

This Debt Fairness Charter sets out principles for how people who owe personal debt to central government should be treated. People may owe money to central government for several reasons, for example, unpaid taxes, benefits overpayments, fines, fees, or outstanding loans. If this describes your situation, you should read this Charter to understand government’s responsibility to treat you fairly when working with you to repay what you owe. It also offers guidance on actions you can take to help this process. If you are having difficulty repaying your debts, we commit to working with you on a way forward.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/debt-fairness-charter/debt-fairness-charter

 

 

 

 

 

[Plan-b]

39 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Fuk the Governments fuk their climate change fuk their wars and fuk their Tax

[Virgil Caine]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Yes on Tony Blair

I agree the current leadership of the party turns Red wall stomachs, but BJ proved that with the right policy platform (and to a far lesser extent than the media claim, a degree of charisma) those voters could hold their nose. Allegedly BJ is now going to campaign for Pishy in the Red Wall, although if the party thinks BJ fronting their current policy is a silver bullet they are in for a big dissappointment. BJ is also likely just playing the party loyalist while he sharpens his knife.

There are two distinct types of economic leftism in this country. The traditional protectionist and trade unionist type in the Red Wall, and the globalist Blairites in Islington etc. The gap between them is greater than existed between Scargill and Thatcher IMO, but the legacy parties cling onto the left/right model not because it accurately represents reality but simply because all their university political science courses are rooted in it. You see the same with govts trying to twist Ukraine/Russia into the cold-war model, as they understand that paradigm.

The electoral system has been gamed by the media/thinktank/political class to provide full employment for its members and permanent government by them, using a two party model. "Vote for the shit sandwhich to keep the other lot out!" is their rallying cry, along with "You might hate me and what I have done to this country, but the other lot will be 10x worse!". Social conservatism and very mild socialism would dominate and either result in a one party state (and 75% unemployment among the media/thinktank/political class as a result), or two partys with similar platforms allowing voters to vote on what they want precisely rather than what they don't want broadly.

The key failing of the British state is its complete inability to create an environment where Capital can be applied to Labour to produce the infrastructure, goods and services that the country needs. Thus you have a situation where the actual physical structure of the U.K. from roads to public buildings is quite literally collapsing. while about a fifth of the potential workforce effectively sits idle. All the attempts to rectify that situation always seem to end up in single vastly expensive projects such as HS2. The latter has swallowed billions yet is estimated only to have produce £0.66 of economic benefit for every £1.00 spent compared with the £2.40 originally estimated. The project typified the kind of delusional grandiosity among the British elite that demands that the country must sacrifice having something functionally useful such as an additional conventional rail line to Birmingham to create room for more freight traffic on a crowded rail network ( the real justification for HS2) for a more expensive, technically difficult, showy, top of the range solution that potentially won’t deliver anymore economic benefit. One sees the same situation in the armed forces where vast amounts of money has been sunk in buying two vastly expensive but already out of date aircraft carriers while the rest of the military falls to pieces. Again the product has proved of limited functional use as the ships appear to be permanently under repair and even when seaworthy would struggle to deploy because of manpower shortages. All this is presided over by a ludicrously top heavy military command structure who justify their existence by playing to the vanity of politicians who want to pretend that they are modern day Palmerstons when the reality is they can barely move the dial in international affairs. Overseeing everything is a dysfunctional Parliament whose sole role seems to be producing legislation that makes an existing bad situation worse. Everyone of these flaws was displayed in all their glory during Covid.

 

 

Edited March 12 by Virgil Caine

[DoINeedOne]

Launch of Proposed Block Trade of up to 436,851,457 Ordinary Shares in ITC Limited

 
BAT PLC ("BAT" or the "Group") announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary Tobacco Manufacturers (India) Limited ("TMI") intends to sell up to 436,851,457 ordinary shares (the "Block Trade Shares") in ITC Limited ("ITC") to institutional investors by way of an accelerated bookbuild process (the "Block Trade"), subject to customary closing conditions. The Block Trade Shares represent up to c.3.5 per cent of ITC's issued ordinary share capital.
 
ITC is a valued associate of BAT in an attractive market with long-term growth potential where BAT benefits from exposure to the world's most populous market. BAT's initial investment in ITC dates back to the early 1900s and the two companies have a longstanding, mutually beneficial relationship.
                                                                                                                                                         
As one of India's leading FMCG enterprises, ITC has delivered significant value for its shareholders and BAT continues to be fully supportive of ITC's management team, performance and strategy.
 
Following completion of the proposed Block Trade, BAT will remain a significant shareholder of ITC, with a c.25.5 per cent holding.
 
BAT intends to use the net proceeds of the Block Trade to buy back BAT shares over a period ending December 2025, starting with £700m in 2024. We will continue to allocate operating cashflow to fund investment in our transformation and to further deleverage.
 
Going forward the key elements of capital allocation at BAT will include:
·      Continued investment in our transformation
·      Progressive dividends
·      Continued deleverage to a new range of 2-2.5x adjusted net debt / adjusted EBITDA.
·      Sustainable share buybacks
 
Tadeu Marroco, Chief Executive of BAT said: "I am confident that ITC, under the stewardship of its current management, will continue to create further value for its shareholders. We look forward to remaining important shareholders in ITC as it continues its journey of growth. With this transaction BAT can accelerate the start of a sustainable buyback, while enabling us to continue to deleverage towards a new target range of 2-2.5x adjusted net debt / adjusted EBITDA."
 
We will share details of the value of net proceeds once the transaction has completed.
 
The person responsible for arranging for the release of this announcement on behalf of BAT PLC is Caroline Ferland, Group Company Secretary.
 

[Axeman123]

13 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

The key failing of the British state is its complete inability to create an environment where Capital can be applied to Labour to produce the infrastructure, goods and services that the country needs.

The Thatcher big-bang is largely at the root of all that IMO, and I say that as a right-winger. Just like Dutch disease the financialised economy sucks up all available capital and spits out only more capital and none of the things other industries would produce as a side product like engineers and machinery. Just as a fat man can simulataneously be malnourished an economy can be stuffed with fiat currency and poor by any other metric. That is where we find ourselves today IMO.

18 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

All the attempts to rectify that situation always seem to end up in single vastly expensive projects such as HS2.

Once you see politics as a mere mid career stepping stone job for the David Cameron and Rishi Sunak type it all makes sense, of course they want the grandest and highest media profile projects possible to pad a CV ready for the big leaugues. KPIs that have to be explained (eg complex metrics for rail journey times or freight tonnage) resulting from many small infrastructure projects are no match for "world class" headline grabbing schemes.

[Royston]

The latest helicopter money drop for the feckless debt junkies seems to be gathering momentum...

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/martin-lewis-says-staggering-30000-28793210

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Royston said:

The latest helicopter money drop for the feckless debt junkies seems to be gathering momentum...

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/martin-lewis-says-staggering-30000-28793210

Very telling that I had to go back through the article with a fine tooth comb to find what exactly people are expected to be compensated for! The only mention (car finance) that I saw is hidden in the MSE link. It really is all just a pretext.

[Alex]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Very telling that I had to go back through the article with a fine tooth comb to find what exactly people are expected to be compensated for! The only mention (car finance) that I saw is hidden in the MSE link. It really is all just a pretext.

Yes, they even mention in the text that it's basically economic stimulus. Not even bothering to hide it any more.

[Royston]

6 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Very telling that I had to go back through the article with a fine tooth comb to find what exactly people are expected to be compensated for! The only mention (car finance) that I saw is hidden in the MSE link. It really is all just a pretext.

Yes I noticed that too.

Also that the article doesn't have a comments section available.

[SpectrumFX]

11 minutes ago, Alex said:

Yes, they even mention in the text that it's basically economic stimulus. Not even bothering to hide it any more.

I find it perplexing that they're so focused on these sorts of exercises to shower people with money, and yet at the same time so obsessed with keeping wage inflation down.

[Virgil Caine]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The Thatcher big-bang is largely at the root of all that IMO, and I say that as a right-winger. Just like Dutch disease the financialised economy sucks up all available capital and spits out only more capital and none of the things other industries would produce as a side product like engineers and machinery. Just as a fat man can simulataneously be malnourished an economy can be stuffed with fiat currency and poor by any other metric. That is where we find ourselves today IMO.

The legacy of Thatcherite economic ideas married to the socially progressive liberalism of Blairism has turned out to be a pretty toxic mixture particularly in a traditionally “conservative” country such as the U.K.  Combined they have managed to generate a spectacular amount of debt and a largely dysfunctional economy and society.

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I find it perplexing that they're so focused on these sorts of exercises to shower people with money, and yet at the same time so obsessed with keeping wage inflation down.

Presumably they are gaming the OBR to "unlock" guilt free spending, rather than actually bothered about the economy etc.

 

[afly]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Very telling that I had to go back through the article with a fine tooth comb to find what exactly people are expected to be compensated for! The only mention (car finance) that I saw is hidden in the MSE link. It really is all just a pretext.

The alleged crime is that lenders allowed dealers to set arbitrary interest rates on finance agreements. The larger the interest rate, the bigger the fee and it wasn't disclosed to the customer. It's the lenders who are in trouble rather than the dealers. 

Pretty standard practice tbh. It was often used as a dealership lever. Difficult customer insisting I take a 1k off the sale price or demanding 1k over book on your PX? Certainly sir, here's your finance @ 12% which re-coops me the lost £1k

Ultimately the customer was offered a deal that could be compared elsewhere if the customer shopped around. In reality, I doubt many of them know what an interest rate is

 

 

 

 

 

[Axeman123]

33 minutes ago, afly said:

Ultimately the customer was offered a deal that could be compared elsewhere if the customer shopped around. In reality, I doubt many of them know what an interest rate is

Mostly just the comparing the monthly IMO. There could have been Cubits and Hogsheads used in the calcs and few would have noticed let alone cared, just so long as they could get approved and meet the monthly.

I expect the next misselling will be people that got PCP cars at rates based on unrealistically annual low mileage and got clobbered when handing it back. I expect many dealers were coaching the punters on how to get the monthly down by claiming they wouldn't use it for work etc.