Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[JMD]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

When i left Cummins,who build the engines,we were working on electric,but the big focus was on Hydrogen with Hyundai.Cummins were covering their bets,but leaning to Hydrogen,the same as Toyota in cars.I worked in Emmision Solutions,and lots going on with Platinum for the cats and fuel cells etc.With trucks you use the engines as braking systems as well,without an engine a full truck will go through braking systems every few months.

Yes for 'renewable transport', at least in terms of sales for the next 20 years, it's probably hydrogen engines for trucks/public transport.

And self-charging hybrids for cars, because they don't need charging point/infrastructure network and the small electric battery requires far less metals. Does anyone know who the most advanced manufacturer in the sector for self-charging hybrids is - is it Toyota or some other car maker?

[JMD]

On 10/03/2024 at 00:42, Eventually Right said:

One of the comments on that article-I wish I could disagree with it…

I'm increasingly of the opinion we are past the point where this option even exists.

One of the inherent issues with democracies is what happens when 60% vote to help themselves to the earnings of the other 40%.

We are now well past this point, combining the non-working benefits class (including pensioners), with the public sector class is a voting majority.

No party campaigning to reduce welfare and state spending and support workers can win an election - workers simply aren't a majority anymore.

It's going to take an actual economic meltdown, possibly a period of hyperinflation and maybe a degree of civil unrest to actually force cuts to the state and the creation of a new social contract.

Ah, but what if I suggested that we don't actually live in what most think of as a 'democracy' (crazy idea I know!), and so the risk you mention of the 60% robbing the wealth from the other 40% might not be allowed to happen. Ie Total collapse would be chaotic and dangerous for TPTB who would run the risk of losing their control and authority.

My premise is that TPTB are not satanists (hopefully not anyway!), and so care about their children's future and also therefore do not plan or intend for economic collapse to happen. Instead I think the multi-polar world that's already emerging sets the stage for new geopolitical confrontations (hopefully economic not miliary) between the newly aligning blocks of countries.

For example for us in Europe I posted recently about a potential Germany-Russia mitteleuropa mashup, which I believe is a possible scenario. I think T(European)PTB would obviously desire a zero sum game in their favor, however they would much much prefer to settle for a positive sum game, over a negative sum game.  ...So it's worth - at least in the near term - to monitor events, because things might not turn out completely doom and gloom for all sections of society or for all sectors. (However on current trends i do accept it looks like for the next 25-50 years, for most people/families they would probably be better off finding an alternative, more stable country, in another multi-polar zone, to emigrate to.)

Edited March 11 by JMD

[JMD]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

£460 a month for a room here.£5520 a year,but its tax free,so the same as earning £8000 a year.Thats the same as 6% return on £140k.If you went with the 4% drawdown rule a lodger is worth £200k in a 60/40 fund.

I should add its one of the reasons i think more from the same will be a big story of the cycle.My partner has two lodgers and SIPPs all her earnings over the tax allowance.So she adds the tax free lodger money to her living expenses so is able to then SIPP her taxable income.With the lodgers she is on £43k and pays zero income tax 

Thanks for the explanation.

I note that the Rent a Room tax free allowance is £7500. However in 1992 when the allowance scheme was created, it was set at £4250, so has not kept pace with increased accomodation costs. I believe rooms are today letting for approx. 3x what they were 30 years ago. Anyway I wonder if the allowance (last increased in 2016) is due a big increase, especially if it's purpose is to encourage lodgers and house sharing in future?

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

We've done green, digital and medical over the last few years and its only gotten worse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Connecting_for_Health

The refusal of the Department of Health to make "concrete, objective information about NPfIT's progress [...] available to external observers", nor even to MPs, attracted significant criticism, and was one of the issues which in April 2006 prompted 23 academics^[15] in computer-related fields to raise concerns about the programme in an open letter to the Health Select Committee.^[16][17] On 6 October 2006 the same signatories wrote a second open letter^[18]

[jamtomorrow]

14 hours ago, JMD said:

Not looking for buying/trading advise of course, but do you expect the BTC price to fall back soon (potentially a big correction?), especially as it's next halving event is in April? I believe that cycle highs are typically 12-18 months after each BTC halving - so the recent ramp up in price is unusual, and probably due to the money going into the new ETFs? 

Spring does seem early this time. It's not just (or not even primarily) the price in trad money like fiat or gold - on-chain metrics are saying the same, as is another of my favourite sentiment metrics: "banal critiques" (it's very noticeable how those dry up in winter, and therefore equally noticeable when they flourish anew as spring comes round).

The uptrend in the 4YMA USD price does seem relentless but beyond that it's mostly a case of "fuck knows". It could easily pull back 50% or more in the blink on an eye.

I do think either BTC in fiat goes to zero or fiat in BTC goes to zero in the next few decades. I don't attach zero probability to either outcome, and try to position accordingly.

I also tend to ignore anyone that does attach certainty to either outcome - it's a good sign they don't know what they're talking about and perhaps have some other axe to grind.

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, ILikeCake said:

I mentioned this in the main forum but may be of interest here.  Mrs got a letter last week stating that her employer pension contribution (NHS) is increasing to 23.7% in April.  I knew the pensions were generous but that's obscene.

https://www.civilservicepensionscheme.org.uk/your-pension/managing-your-pension/contribution-rates/

I get a fair few request for CS jobs thru linkedin.

I go - day rates too low.

Recruiters goes - its in line with the permanent job.

I go - Its not when  you allow for the pension contributions?

The pension n other non pay benefits for the senior CS were meat to attract higher skills

The people they attract are, in the main, dummies.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

you can see the set up coming here.Mark Carney,someone who got paid millions by British taxpayers to neitehr raise or lower intersts rates for 8 years while infaltion pressures builts.then the Chair of USS pensions Carol Young(uni pensions schemes).C S Venkatakrishnan CEO Barclays.coming together to invest Bristih savers funds.....

Labru basically cant print or tax,so they'regoing to raid savings to pay for their whims n fancies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/10/labour-hires-mark-carney-private-investment-spending-plans/

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has appointed some of Britain’s most senior business leaders for advice on raising private investment through its proposed National Wealth Fund. 

Ms Reeves has been forced to find new ways of paying for Labour’s spending promises after Jeremy Hunt used his Budget last week to scrap the non-dom tax regime – a key Labour pledge – and put the money towards cutting national insurance.

Labour has since ruled out a tax on the wealthy to plug the funding gap for its manifesto pledges.

It came after Sir Keir Starmer last month abandoned his flagship pledge to spend £28bn on green investment each year and blamed the country’s poor finances.

The party has promised that each £1 of public money will be backed up by £3 of private sector investment.

Ms Reeves’ advisory committee includes Mr Carney, former Bank of England governor and C S Venkatakrishnan, the chief executive of Barclays, The Sunday Times first reported. 

They are joined by Carol Young, the chief executive of USS, the UK’s largest private pension scheme, plus executives from investment companies Equitix and Brunel Pension.

No doubt they will be given huge tax advantages.Just yesterday the government gave EV battery companies huge electric subs by adding £5 onto consumers bills.In other words they admit out prices are way too high,but decide to let the working poor shoulder the bill.

It does look like we are right though in that they have run out of room to print now.Desperation kicking in.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

No doubt they will be given huge tax advantages.Just yesterday the government gave EV battery companies huge electric subs by adding £5 onto consumers bills.In other words they admit out prices are way too high,but decide to let the working poor shoulder the bill.

It does look like we are right though in that they have run out of room to print now.Desperation kicking in.

Is there anyone not getting bungs paid for by sap taxpayer?   

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes for 'renewable transport', at least in terms of sales for the next 20 years, it's probably hydrogen engines for trucks/public transport.

And self-charging hybrids for cars, because they don't need charging point/infrastructure network and the small electric battery requires far less metals. Does anyone know who the most advanced manufacturer in the sector for self-charging hybrids is - is it Toyota or some other car maker?

Just buy Sibanye.By the time everyone works out the above PGMs will of gone through the roof and Sibanye 4x to 10x in price.People think the need for PGMs is over.However they are wrong,and there is already a deficit.Its no wonder Froneman CEO has been buying up the PGM recycling companies.

[Democorruptcy]

IMB share buyback starts today.

[Onsamui]

A Look Back At Socrates' Forecasts From January 2020 | Armstrong Economics 

Now, everyone is praising the rising Dow that will touch the 40,000 level. Of course, it is easier to say that now that we are almost there. Again, few believed me back in 2020, but here we are. Governments throughout the world are still in trouble and the money remaining on the grid is fleeing into the US. This is another reason why I watch the Dow a bit more closely than the S&P 500, as it provides a more accurate indicator of the big foreign money piling in from throughout the world......

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

you can see the set up coming here.Mark Carney,someone who got paid millions by British taxpayers to neitehr raise or lower intersts rates for 8 years while infaltion pressures builts.then the Chair of USS pensions Carol Young(uni pensions schemes).C S Venkatakrishnan CEO Barclays.coming together to invest Bristih savers funds.....

Labru basically cant print or tax,so they'regoing to raid savings to pay for their whims n fancies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/10/labour-hires-mark-carney-private-investment-spending-plans/

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has appointed some of Britain’s most senior business leaders for advice on raising private investment through its proposed National Wealth Fund. 

Ms Reeves has been forced to find new ways of paying for Labour’s spending promises after Jeremy Hunt used his Budget last week to scrap the non-dom tax regime – a key Labour pledge – and put the money towards cutting national insurance.

Labour has since ruled out a tax on the wealthy to plug the funding gap for its manifesto pledges.

It came after Sir Keir Starmer last month abandoned his flagship pledge to spend £28bn on green investment each year and blamed the country’s poor finances.

The party has promised that each £1 of public money will be backed up by £3 of private sector investment.

Ms Reeves’ advisory committee includes Mr Carney, former Bank of England governor and C S Venkatakrishnan, the chief executive of Barclays, The Sunday Times first reported. 

They are joined by Carol Young, the chief executive of USS, the UK’s largest private pension scheme, plus executives from investment companies Equitix and Brunel Pension.

"The party has promised that each £1 of public money will be backed up by £3 of private sector investment."

What a pity that they will later decide that the private sector money was allocated to things that generated a profit but taxpayer's money was on the losers. That 25% cushion will operate a bit like Help to Buy for banks. Might be worth a spread bet, "What year will the UK Wealth Fund be abandoned" because it's in the red and the private sector investors are long gone with their profits.

[DurhamBorn]

Well well.So they want to cut the tax on workers by cutting working age bennies.Of course that is the right thing to do,even though they wont do it i doubt.Obvious they have woken up to cross market now that there is no point working,and if you increase NMW there is no point employing for lots of companies.All too late of course,and unless it includes the scamming disability benefits and housing it wont do a thing.It wont work "helping" them into work.It needs a much lower welfare cap including disability,no way to get around the cap a simple £15k maximum cap.Or go for £20k max on everyone,but freeze it for 5 years.Nothing else will work.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/10/rishi-sunak-to-cut-benefits-national-insurance-scrapage/

Edited March 11 by DurhamBorn

[afly]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Does anyone know who the most advanced manufacturer in the sector for self-charging hybrids is - is it Toyota or some other car maker?

Yes, trust the Japs. They've been making proven self charging hybrids for 25 years. Seemingly had no time for EV bollocks despite the incentives and pressure.

They did venture into the PHEV world which was probably a mistake. They just need to dial their tech back a bit if anything

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

It needs a much lower welfare cap including disability,no way to get around the cap a simple £15k maximum cap.

That cap IMO would need to include any housing entitelement, childless people on bennies should expect to adjust their expectations to a bed in a dorm rather than a private room. Its the only way to bring costs down to what the real economy can bear. What better way to motivate people back to work?

The only risk is normalising dorm life for everyone.

[JMD]

14 hours ago, spygirl said:

Gordon Brown: UK has to get on war footing for economic growth

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/10/gordon-brown-uk-war-footing-economic-growth-treasury

But the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s spending watchdog, said the outlook for the economy “remained challenging” and Brown, prime minister during the 2008 global financial crisis, will say that the way Britain is governed needs to change if there is to be an end to 15 years of stagnation.

He will say: “The way we govern will have to be radically transformed – and government put on a war footing – if Britain is to break free from the vicious low growth, low productivity, and low wage cycle that has seen annual growth halve in the last decade, investment levels stagnate at levels far below our main competitors, the worst productivity performance – less than 0.5% a year – since the Industrial Revolution, and the deepest regional economic inequalities in western Europe.”

Labour’s last prime minister will propose his new National Economic Council should be jointly staffed by the Treasury and the Cabinet Office, working alongside a council of the nations and regions, and have the task of hitting a 3% growth target. Brown will say the economic council should have equal status with the government’s national security council, meeting at least once a week, and twice a week if necessary.

Brown will argue that higher growth can be achieved through an industrial strategy founded on green, digital and medical technologies, linked to an employment and anti-poverty strategy focused on better jobs, skills, and services.

 

All this faux talk of war-agendas coming from our politicians has reminded me of something Napoleon said...

'Wars happen when the government tell the people who the enemy is.

But when the people decide for themselves who their enemies are - revolutions happen.'

 

[DurhamBorn]

On NI,is it the first step to means test the State Pension?.Once you dont pay NI,you dont get a years stamp,and you cannot say "i paid my stamp for x years".They break the link.So how will they decide?.Years you paid income tax?,years you met a social credit score?.Or years resident ?.

Looks like the Tories might have one fiscal event left.Is that the one they increase IHT thresholds etc,cut workers tax funded by a big bennie cut,leaving Labour in a terrible position.The budget was terrible,but maybe its only round one of two.

[desertorchid]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well well.So they want to cut the tax on workers by cutting working age bennies.Of course that is the right thing to do,even though they wont do it i doubt.Obvious they have woken up to cross market now that there is no point working,and if you increase NMW there is no point employing for lots of companies.All too late of course,and unless it includes the scamming disability benefits and housing it wont do a thing.It wont work "helping" them into work.It needs a much lower welfare cap including disability,no way to get around the cap a simple £15k maximum cap.Or go for £20k max on everyone,but freeze it for 5 years.Nothing else will work.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/10/rishi-sunak-to-cut-benefits-national-insurance-scrapage/

Well they're obviously not that determined as the budget was merely a few days ago, and they did sweet FA.

[Pip321]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

you can see the set up coming here.Mark Carney,someone who got paid millions by British taxpayers to neitehr raise or lower intersts rates for 8 years while infaltion pressures builts.then the Chair of USS pensions Carol Young(uni pensions schemes).C S Venkatakrishnan CEO Barclays.coming together to invest Bristih savers funds.....

Labru basically cant print or tax,so they'regoing to raid savings to pay for their whims n fancies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/10/labour-hires-mark-carney-private-investment-spending-plans/

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has appointed some of Britain’s most senior business leaders for advice on raising private investment through its proposed National Wealth Fund. 

Ms Reeves has been forced to find new ways of paying for Labour’s spending promises after Jeremy Hunt used his Budget last week to scrap the non-dom tax regime – a key Labour pledge – and put the money towards cutting national insurance.

Labour has since ruled out a tax on the wealthy to plug the funding gap for its manifesto pledges.

It came after Sir Keir Starmer last month abandoned his flagship pledge to spend £28bn on green investment each year and blamed the country’s poor finances.

The party has promised that each £1 of public money will be backed up by £3 of private sector investment.

Ms Reeves’ advisory committee includes Mr Carney, former Bank of England governor and C S Venkatakrishnan, the chief executive of Barclays, The Sunday Times first reported. 

They are joined by Carol Young, the chief executive of USS, the UK’s largest private pension scheme, plus executives from investment companies Equitix and Brunel Pension.

I wonder what one of these consultants will be paid....reminds me of that Health Employment graph in the US, where front line worker nudge up but administrators numbers rocket exponentially. Just a game and if you ain't on the ride you are being fucked...

I like the idea of a wealth fund but only if I am invited to consult on it and can get £200k a year for the privilege plus maybe a cheeky funded pension too. I bet some of these guys get their expenses paid indirectly (eg company car, food allowance etc) by 3/4/5 committees every time they go to a meeting. 

[Cattle Prod]

.

Edited March 11 by Cattle Prod

[Axeman123]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looks like the Tories might have one fiscal event left.Is that the one they increase IHT thresholds etc,cut workers tax funded by a big bennie cut,leaving Labour in a terrible position.The budget was terrible,but maybe its only round one of two.

Racheal Reeves has started "expectation management", indicating IMO that she knows Hunt is now on a mission to hand her a stick of dynamite with a short lit fuse

Quote

Labour will not be able to "turn things around straight away" if elected, Rachel Reeves has said.

Speaking to the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, the shadow chancellor did not rule out making cuts in some areas, saying Labour would inherit the worst economy since World War Two.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68527158

[JMD]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

you can see the set up coming here.Mark Carney,someone who got paid millions by British taxpayers to neitehr raise or lower intersts rates for 8 years while infaltion pressures builts.then the Chair of USS pensions Carol Young(uni pensions schemes).C S Venkatakrishnan CEO Barclays.coming together to invest Bristih savers funds.....

Labru basically cant print or tax,so they'regoing to raid savings to pay for their whims n fancies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/10/labour-hires-mark-carney-private-investment-spending-plans/

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has appointed some of Britain’s most senior business leaders for advice on raising private investment through its proposed National Wealth Fund. 

Ms Reeves has been forced to find new ways of paying for Labour’s spending promises after Jeremy Hunt used his Budget last week to scrap the non-dom tax regime – a key Labour pledge – and put the money towards cutting national insurance.

Labour has since ruled out a tax on the wealthy to plug the funding gap for its manifesto pledges.

It came after Sir Keir Starmer last month abandoned his flagship pledge to spend £28bn on green investment each year and blamed the country’s poor finances.

The party has promised that each £1 of public money will be backed up by £3 of private sector investment.

Ms Reeves’ advisory committee includes Mr Carney, former Bank of England governor and C S Venkatakrishnan, the chief executive of Barclays, The Sunday Times first reported. 

They are joined by Carol Young, the chief executive of USS, the UK’s largest private pension scheme, plus executives from investment companies Equitix and Brunel Pension.

Even our so-called 'industrial' class have been captured by centralised state thinking. For me the stand out example is Jurgen Maier, the ex-boss of Siemens UK, and is always particularly loathsome when he appears on Question Time (I know!, but I like to monitor the QT audience for signs of political change, unfortunately they are as myopically ignorant as ever were). Character like him really make your heart sink.

Mair's family roots are Austrian but he has lived here since his youth. Here's an example from his website, lots of diversity/equity mantra, rabidly anti-brexit, etc...

https://juergenmaier.co.uk/is-the-populism-tide-turning/

 

Edited March 11 by JMD

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Racheal Reeves has started "expectation management", indicating IMO that she knows Hunt is now on a mission to hand her a stick of dynamite with a short lit fuse

Politicians. Playing with peoples lives for political expediency is a shitty way to behave when your in government office and being paid to do a job.

They hate us that's for sure.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

All too late of course,and unless it includes the scamming disability benefits and housing it wont do a thing.It wont work "helping" them into work.It needs a much lower welfare cap including disability,no way to get around the cap a simple £15k maximum cap.Or go for £20k max on everyone,but freeze it for 5 years.Nothing else will work.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/10/rishi-sunak-to-cut-benefits-national-insurance-scrapage/

I think the question is whetehr our Lodnodn elite will be able to contemplate these sort of bennie controls before a collpase and I jsut don't think they can.

They inhabit a world where they can jsut tap the national credit card and indenture another generation of biritsh kids with more 30 year debt.

Many of them are ex public school/oxbridge,nevr had a real job facing customers/patients/inmates/arrestees/enemy,they jsut send everyone else out to deal with the consequences of their incompetence.

I apprecaite you putting your figures out there as it give sme an idea of the parameters they need to meet to avoid systemic collaspe.It looks a really tall order for them in Westmisnter.I dont think theyre capable of taking such hard decissions

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

On NI,is it the first step to means test the State Pension?

It's one of the msot likely ways they can kick the can for a few more years,not dish out state pension to people who've spent forty years saving for a private pension.

also means they can keep dishing out state pension to people who havent paid a penny in of their own moeny.

 

 

 

This is exactly the sort of stupidity we're talking about from our elite.absolutely zero common sense.you cna imagine the nigerian(or insert other non UK nation) scammers seeing this as a licence to print moeny.

Inetersting that they're going to use the investment vehcile that was so haevily scammed for coof laons.

I jsut can't imagine how this will end up coming back to taxpayers as a big fat loss.

They should kjsut lend it to John Lewis Partners and be done with it

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/11/labour-use-state-bank-fund-female-led-businesses-women-tulip-siddiq

Labour says it will use state bank to fund female-led businesses

Labour plans to set targets for funding female-led businesses through the state-owned British Business Bank and to launch a review of the financial exclusion of women, if it wins the next general election.

The initiatives, which will be announced on Monday by the shadow City minister Tulip Siddiq, form part of the party’s financial inclusion agenda, following a review by 10 City grandees earlier this year of Labour’s financial services strategy.

Siddiq will reveal plans for two new performance targets for the British Business Bank (BBB), the economic development bank best known for overseeing Covid funding schemes during the pandemic. That will include an “overall investment allocation target” towards businesses led by women, as well as those led by ethnic minority founders. The BBB will also be required to issue reports on the diversity of applicants it considered for funding.

The size of its funding targets have yet to be confirmed, but will be set in coordination with the BBB, Siddiq’s office said. However, a 2019 report by the BBB found that only 1% of venture capital investment in the UK went to companies founded by women.

[Democorruptcy]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

On NI,is it the first step to means test the State Pension?.Once you dont pay NI,you dont get a years stamp,and you cannot say "i paid my stamp for x years".They break the link.So how will they decide?.Years you paid income tax?,years you met a social credit score?.Or years resident ?.

Looks like the Tories might have one fiscal event left.Is that the one they increase IHT thresholds etc,cut workers tax funded by a big bennie cut,leaving Labour in a terrible position.The budget was terrible,but maybe its only round one of two.

I've been suggesting removing NI is to 'means test' the state pension when it's gone. It all fits and partly why they have been pushing NIC top ups recently and then extending the date. The people who have the money for the top ups will likely be the ones who don't qualify for a means tested pension, so they won't see that money again. The other bonus is that all the illegal immigrants they have allowed in, won't have time to accumulate the number of qualifying years for a full state pension, so means testing instead will also help them.