Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Gold being annoying. I was hoping it would do nothing for another year or so.

How many fucking years do you want?

[Errol]

15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

How many fucking years do you want?

I know. I only have myself to blame. 

[Errol]

 

[M S E Refugee]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

EU (not Europe, UK is still part of Europe 😉) turn to? It’s already chosen communism and grab everything not nailed down, I don’t know the fancy term for that. It’s really only Hungary holding back the tide now. It used to be a broader ex communist bulwark like Hungary and Poland, id be interested to hear @M S E Refugees take on developments in Poland since Tusk took over. 

I don't think Tusk can do too much damage as he's had to form a coalition Government so hopefully that will reign him in a bit.

Poland is my first choice destination due to family ties, however I won't rule out moving to Hungary if Poland goes to shit.

I can't really make any plans until 2027 when I turn 55 and can access my pension.

A lot can happen between now and then.

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Errol said:

I don't agree with this. If there was an imminent revaluation, gold would either be much, much higher (i.e. thousands of dollars higher) or doing absolutely nothing.

Exactly,and what does a reset of the financial system mean,you cannot reset it,its ludicrous.

[Loki]

40 minutes ago, Errol said:

I don't agree with this. If there was an imminent revaluation, gold would either be much, much higher (i.e. thousands of dollars higher) or doing absolutely nothing.

Just words for the sake of words

[DurhamBorn]

They dont need to reset the financial system,they need to reset the imbalances.China nor the US want the other to collapse,they like the status quo.The West needs more production,China needs more consumption.Thats the reason gold will run,because both sides want a weaker dollar.The US to encourage onshoring of production,China to encourage consumption (it makes their population happy).Gold is not sniffing some promised a million times happens once scenario,its sniffing this re-balance,a weakening dollar,elevated inflation for a long time.It also comes just as the US credit cycle moves to the private sector.

Edited March 8 by DurhamBorn

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

There were also morbid parts in Hunt's budget speech... in the segment about departmental tech-drive-for-cost-savings, he mentioned that Police drones would become first responders!! 

I don't know the scope of what he, or his political successors have in mind, but I do wonder how long before those drones are equipped with tasers?!

Kids of the future won't twoc cars, they will create a disturbance and then shoot the first responder drones. Not sure what they will shoot them with but they will find a way to take them down.

[Calcutta]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Kids of the future won't twoc cars, they will create a disturbance and then shoot the first responder drones. Not sure what they will shoot them with but they will find a way to take them down.

Catapult

Crossbow

Air rifle

Laser pen

And that's just for a start, once someone works out how to jam the fucking things and take them alive it's game on.

[Democorruptcy]

4 out of 6 posts made by @Errol - the top could be in today?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Catapult

Crossbow

Air rifle

Laser pen

And that's just for a start, once someone works out how to jam the fucking things and take them alive it's game on.

The first kid to joyride a police drone has already been born.

[Calcutta]

8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The first kid to joyride a police drone has already been born.

Skynet became self aware, it was then remapped to pop and bang and ridden around the estate by some snotty little cunt in a North Face gilet. 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I don't think Tusk can do too much damage as he's had to form a coalition Government so hopefully that will reign him in a bit.

Poland is my first choice destination due to family ties, however I won't rule out moving to Hungary if Poland goes to shit.

I can't really make any plans until 2027 when I turn 55 and can access my pension.

A lot can happen between now and then.

Can you speak Hungarian? I am OK with languages but find Hungarian fairly difficult to learn and get my head round.

[Joncrete Cungle]

51 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Catapult

Crossbow

Air rifle

Laser pen

And that's just for a start, once someone works out how to jam the fucking things and take them alive it's game on.

Bolas, we made them as kids with damaged golf balls we couldn't sell and bale twine.

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

 

Bitcoin has reset many times, anything that moves with the sort of moves that`s associated with retests is nothing more than speculative at best ,gold is simply being used as an alternative to holding foreign currency reserves on a sovereign basis at this point in time for obvious reasons

It will do the largest sovereign holder no good whatsoever if gold has a huge reset in price ,as that sovereign relies on massively on exports to the countries it would effect the most, 

[M S E Refugee]

14 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Can you speak Hungarian? I am OK with languages but find Hungarian fairly difficult to learn and get my head round.

No, I've heard it's a very difficult language to learn.

 

Edited March 8 by M S E Refugee

[Lightscribe]

Are we nearly there? Gold seems to think so. We shall see further confirmation next week

[MrXxxx]

On 07/03/2024 at 17:22, MrXxxx said:

Interesting you say this, as they are now 'discussing' taxing UK citizens on worldwide income rather than just income earned in the UK.

No its not...it is paid 'Free of tax' BUT is still taxable income. Say for example with the Triple lock the state pension rises to £13k per annum YET your personal Income tax allowance stays at £12570, you would then have tax to pay on the difference i.e. £430. I can see this starting to happen in the future, and that is without any of your other taxable income!...the only ones that wont be taxed in retirement will be the 'financially illiterate'/feckless.

No, that sounds like a 'great idea' for any government...promote to your employees how good their pension provision is [and that's why we pay you less than the Private sector], yet 'harvest' back some of what you give them...the majority are indifferent towards their pensions [and what they mean] until they retire and then realize how important it is!

R.e my second point above, and what do I just see on the MSN/DE website?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/income-tax-personal-allowance-must-be-increased-to-15k-to-help-pensioners-petition-says/ar-BB1jygji

...pensioners creating a petition to increase their personal allowance; if you look at the figures in this article link you  can see that a full state pension will only be £1000 below your [their] currently frozen personal allowance of £12570...so anyone with any company pension that provides anymore than a further £1k pa/£19.20 pw will then start to be taxed at a minimum of 20%.

Further, if they currently have a single savings account with more than £20k, at the current saving interest rates this would equate to £1k in interest; they would be allowed £1k interest tax-free as part of their Savings interest allowance [last year it was £2k] BUT anymore than this, and then once again they will be taxed...

...forget the direct 'headline' Income Tax/NI value our politicians focus on, concentrate on the taxation by stealth i.e.fiscal drag.

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, PETR4 said:

China dumping the USD for payments and only taking Yuan

There`s a thread on that,but it`s far more than just the Yuan at play here its a whole new financial system being born,one that completely circumvents the need for the western transaction/financial system, therefore the currencies that dominate that system supply and demand hence the talk in the FT article about rising bond yields  

 

 

Edited March 8 by Long time lurking

[Axeman123]

45 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Are we nearly there? Gold seems to think so. We shall see further confirmation next week

Dave Hunter (AIUI) is expecting pretty much everything to go the same way before the top.

If so we could have weeks of impossibility ahead. Its exciting.

[Lightscribe]

7 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Dave Hunter (AIUI) is expecting pretty much everything to go the same way before the top.

If so we could have weeks of impossibility ahead. Its exciting.

The tech bull run is *beginning* to look like it’s tapping out. But it may not be finished yet.

With the prospect of rate cuts (unemployment data up today in the US jobs report so a cooling US economy) then I would agree with Hunter.

It’s a crazy world right now where rate cuts are the be all and end all to ramping stocks rather than fundamentals of the economy.

It’s just gold sniffs out the bullshit first. That’s why the miners haven’t followed *yet*.

If rates are cut in the next few months we could see a further blow off top in everything, but rate cuts will be a policy mistake. I think gold (and the central banks buying gold) are already anticipating that.

 

[DurhamBorn]

52 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

R.e my second point above, and what do I just see on the MSN/DE website?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/income-tax-personal-allowance-must-be-increased-to-15k-to-help-pensioners-petition-says/ar-BB1jygji

...pensioners creating a petition to increase their personal allowance; if you look at the figures in this article link you  can see that a full state pension will only be £1000 below your [their] currently frozen personal allowance of £12570...so anyone with any company pension that provides anymore than a further £1k pa/£19.20 pw will then start to be taxed at a minimum of 20%.

Further, if they currently have a single savings account with more than £20k, at the current saving interest rates this would equate to £1k in interest; they would be allowed £1k interest tax-free as part of their Savings interest allowance [last year it was £2k] BUT anymore than this, and then once again they will be taxed...

...forget the direct 'headline' Income Tax/NI value our politicians focus on, concentrate on the taxation by stealth i.e.fiscal drag.

 

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Its an equitable life Henry.

 

[Long time lurking]

15 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

With the prospect of rate cuts

That`s the same prospects that have been kicked down the road for almost twelve months ,they have been a few months away for almost a year now

At best i would bet you will get a politically driven small cut in the 3rd quarter for obvious reasons 

As for US jobs data it`s worthless they make that shit up to suit 

Edited March 8 by Long time lurking