Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, Long time lurking said:

That`s the same prospects that have been kicked down the road for almost twelve months ,they have been a few months away 

At best i would bet you will get a politically driven small cut in the 3rd quarter for obvious reasons 

As for US jobs data it`s worthless they make that shit up to suit 

It has not gone unnoticed how official statistics (like tractor production)  are now routinely revised down when everyone has forgotten months later.

Revising down also has the advantage of making the more recent ones look better.

Tadah, look no recession.

[Long time lurking]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

It has not gone unnoticed how official statistics (like tractor production)  are now routinely revised down when everyone has forgotten months later.

Revising down also has the advantage of making the more recent ones look better.

Tadah, look no recession.

Perception management 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

pensioners creating a petition to increase their personal allowance; if you look at the figures in this article link you  can see that a full state pension will only be £1000 below your [their] currently frozen personal allowance of £12570...so anyone with any company pension that provides anymore than a further £1k pa/£19.20 pw will then start to be taxed at a minimum of 20%.

My old man retired around 2000, he was moaning about having to pay tax on his pensions even back then, it is nothing new.

[XswampyX]

20 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

It has not gone unnoticed how official statistics (like tractor production)  are now routinely revised down when everyone has forgotten months later.

Revising down also has the advantage of making the more recent ones look better.

Tadah, look no recession.

Yeah and they don't mention the number of tractors the gubberment is buying.

Option A - You are on the dole and a drag on the economy.

Option B - Welcome to your new job as equity and diversity officer for shitsville, here's £30,000 now fuck off our stats.

  

 

[Funn3r]

7 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Some shocking numbers at the start is the GDP part correct ?

 

There is something wrong with this. His voice keeps changing. I have no problem with the sentiment but it is expressed in a funny way. At one point about halfway his voice just suddenly drops an octave then picks up again. I can't disagree with much but is he really saying it, is this AI?

[Funn3r]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

chart  incomen BS    fcf   sector

4         4              4       3       4          =19 so steady she goes for 'spray n prayin'(anything over 17 a buy for me but dyor natch)

I try to keep up in this thread and don't ask for spoon feeding, honestly, but have lost it on this one. Could you help me along a bit what does this mean?

[mcdongle]

17 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

There is something wrong with this. His voice keeps changing. I have no problem with the sentiment but it is expressed in a funny way. At one point about halfway his voice just suddenly drops an octave then picks up again. I can't disagree with much but is he really saying it, is this AI?

I looked at his eyes and thought the same... Who knows these days..

[Funn3r]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

No, I've heard it's a very difficult language to learn.

 

It has 18 grammatical cases.  English has either 0 or 1 case depending how you look at it.  Have not tried Hungarian but having learnt multi-case languages I would say learning Hungarian is a total non-starter unless you are living there or married to one.

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Its exciting

You bastard it's giving me a nervous fucking breakdown!

[Plan-b]

41 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I try to keep up in this thread and don't ask for spoon feeding, honestly, but have lost it on this one. Could you help me along a bit what does this mean?

 

Its Sancho's coma score spreadsheet. Singapore Telecoms equals a score of 19, so for him (in this case) anything over a score of 17 is a buy.   Do Your Own Due Diligence - Naturally.

Here's an old chart for comparison..

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

There is something wrong with this. His voice keeps changing. I have no problem with the sentiment but it is expressed in a funny way. At one point about halfway his voice just suddenly drops an octave then picks up again. I can't disagree with much but is he really saying it, is this AI?

I hate most shit on the internet these days because you can tell its a fucking computer talking to you.

[desertorchid]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I see no reason to hold bonds at all as they are almost certain to lose you spending power.

.

Not even these?

[JMD]

12 hours ago, kibuc said:

Payrolls are in and LOL at those revisions from previous month:

 

Nonfarm 353k revised down to 229k

Private 317k revised down to 177k

 

How on earth can you miss like that (routinely, I should add) and still be in your job.
 

The economists get away with continually churning out bad forecasting because like all bad workman they resort to blaming their tools, ie their spastic economic modelling. ...However when in public economists become very coy and protective of their 'profession' and so usually blame problem results on unexpected events and other unaccounted for externalities, or that sometimes almost mythical leads-and-lags will perniciously disrupt the timings. 

[desertorchid]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

The economists get away with continually churning out bad forecasting because like all bad workman they resort to blaming their tools, ie their spastic economic modelling. ...However when in public economists become very coy and protective of their 'profession' and so usually blame problem results on unexpected events and other unaccounted for externalities, or that sometimes almost mythical leads-and-lags will perniciously disrupt the timings. 

This is seen in the classical /keynsian argument of the huge demand side stimulus from 2008+. A keynsian would argue the spare capacity in the economy enabled non inflationary growth for over a decade, whereas a neo-classical economist would say the inevitable inflation occurred, but just after a significant time lag, hence rendering the original policy futile.

 

Both will believe they are correct.

Edited March 9 by desertorchid

[Lightscribe]

 

Edited March 9 by Lightscribe

[Ash4781b]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68516710
 

To be fair to the BBC Faisal Islam has written an article on the budget etc and captures the odd position of the Tory party and mentions knocking down something productive manufacturing and replacing it with well nothing ?  It’s really end of days type stuff for the party coming for savings and pensions. I’m hearing huge discontent from grey / older vote. Unfortunately it does mean that both parties will be on a tax raising plan. Do need to plan for this. the article highlights the fiscal drag - tax rises. I imagine both parties will be campaigning on the tax rise plan. Great. I can’t believe the Tories would campaign on a NI cut to near zero platform. 

All setup for the UK lagging behind for decades. Make sure you fill up the BRISA ! 

 

“The diggers were knocking down the town's Honda factory, 35 years after Margaret Thatcher lured the Japanese car giant to the UK. There are hopes that the redevelopment of the site will lead to thousands of new jobs, but it is still unclear what they might be.

Here is what is very curious. The Conservative strategy on tax has completely turned on its head. 

Not far from the old Honda factory in Swindon, David Cameron launched his 2015 election manifesto with a commitment to raise income tax thresholds above inflation to take people out of the income tax system, and to prevent many upper-middle earners paying higher-rate tax. 
 

 

 

….

It was the absolute cornerstone of Conservative tax strategy in 2017, too. 

What we see now is pretty much the entire reversal of that. "U-turn" does not really capture the galactic extent of this change in direction. In 2010, there were three million higher taxpayers, by 2029 there will be 7.3 million.”

Edited March 9 by Ash4781b

[Long time lurking]

6 hours ago, Funn3r said:

At one point about halfway his voice just suddenly drops an octave then picks up again. I can't disagree with much but is he really saying it, is this AI?

I did notice that as well ti could be just bad editing but who knows

Then at the moment there's a few of Hitlers pre WW" speeches translated by AI doing the rounds and they are perfect with regards to glitches 

[Long time lurking]

Very similar with Mexico 

The ultimate cutting your nose of to spite your face 

 

Edited March 9 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My old man retired around 2000, he was moaning about having to pay tax on his pensions even back then, it is nothing new.

It not nothing new other than the amount you get to keep before you have to start paying tax ,which is getting less and less,Its the same for my old man i think until the last couple of years every rise in the state pension was wiped out by tax ,then the increase in his small serps pension was wiped out by increases in council tax  

It is the only pot of honey left 

[Jay]

11 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

A possible reason for that was bitcoin hit new record of 70k , Coinbase was up around 12% as well..then Coinbase crashed and clients could not trade and panicked..in the same period bitcoin fell about 5%, Coinbase fell slightly more as well as other crypto stocks..no, I didn’t  sell anything nor did I short Nvidia..

Will the same scenario happen next week, probably if Coinbase can’t cope or it may be old fashioned manipulation..I can’t complain as   Coinbase is up a lot and likely to go higher if bitcoin continues to rise..custodian to blackrock etf is probably similar to selling shovels to gold miners.. 

[M S E Refugee]

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/pensions-and-retirement/one-pension-for-life-2942394

 

[dnb24]

8 hours ago, Funn3r said:

It has 18 grammatical cases

Ye but it’s logical. Like all languages- you’ll get by with immersing yourself in vocabulary, if you want to go to uni or do higher educational stuff- then for sure it’s more difficult, for everyday life getting by it’s about the same difficulty as any other language.

Edited March 9 by dnb24

[Pip321]

10 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

R.e my second point above, and what do I just see on the MSN/DE website?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/income-tax-personal-allowance-must-be-increased-to-15k-to-help-pensioners-petition-says/ar-BB1jygji

...pensioners creating a petition to increase their personal allowance; if you look at the figures in this article link you  can see that a full state pension will only be £1000 below your [their] currently frozen personal allowance of £12570...so anyone with any company pension that provides anymore than a further £1k pa/£19.20 pw will then start to be taxed at a minimum of 20%.

Further, if they currently have a single savings account with more than £20k, at the current saving interest rates this would equate to £1k in interest; they would be allowed £1k interest tax-free as part of their Savings interest allowance [last year it was £2k] BUT anymore than this, and then once again they will be taxed...

...forget the direct 'headline' Income Tax/NI value our politicians focus on, concentrate on the taxation by stealth i.e.fiscal drag.

 

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My old man retired around 2000, he was moaning about having to pay tax on his pensions even back then, it is nothing new.

Re state pensions and taxing ‘pensioners’ I have a friend who is ‘fairly well off’ with a private DB pension paying around £30k and his state pension kicking in soon. And he was fuming (really fuming) about the entitlement of all his friends who are living on public sector pensions which I found really interesting that some people get it.

So my friend had his 5% capped pension raise for the last 2 years (ie 10%) , whilst his public sector friends got 18/19% inflation linked increases. And his public sector friends are moaning about tax….and even moaning they weren’t benefitting re national insurance cuts, think about that….they don’t benefit cos they pay 0% but that isn’t good enough. 

He says they are all so entitled, totally uneducated financially and just expect everything on a plate. They have a seemingly total disregard for workers (includes their own kids) and the struggle they are having. 

Many of his friends are on free tablets, free doctor visits at least once a month for numerous crap, free bus passes (which are great round here to bob to Leeds etc), heating allowances, state pensions, bloated assets mainly in house prices, spurious disable badges, council tax reductions due to a pretend disability eg adapted toilet for a bad knee.

I agreed….middle class boomers aren’t despised per se,  if they are like him ie they take what they can…..but at least do it gratefully. 

It seems the worst ones are those who never really worked for it all but it has all just fallen into their lap whilst they were administrators in the public sectors whose roles went from £25k equivalent junior type roles to perceived ‘management roles’ on £50k just with the evolution of ‘the office mentality and extra value given to it’ over the past 3 decades.

We are seeing interesting divides….and those who are starting to get it are questioning almost everything, ie the media, the wars, the printing of money, the excess of politicians etc.

May take time but I think more and more people are wanting a third way that isn’t just voting red/blue because the6 are seeing it’s all just globalist nonsense where no one represents them. 

I guess the battle is being drawn and the government are doing this so 53% benefit ie bennies, public sector and vote for status quo. 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

[jamtomorrow]

15 hours ago, Errol said:

Gold being annoying. I was hoping it would do nothing for another year or so.

I bring glad tidings, it hasn't finished forming a bottom yet -

Even better news zooming out, it'll be a multi-year triple bottom once it breaks out - I'm no scribbler, but that's very very bullish?

Decl: equal weight BTC vs gold kg

Edited March 9 by jamtomorrow

[Errol]

Can we have a gold v Tesla or nvidia chart next? Just as relevant.

Edited March 9 by Errol