Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Plan-b]

WTF ..

[Loki]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Payrolls are in and LOL at those revisions from previous month:

 

Nonfarm 353k revised down to 229k

Private 317k revised down to 177k

 

How on earth can you miss like that (routinely, I should add) and still be in your job.
 

"Good enough for government work"

Where did you find the revised numbers?

[kibuc]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

"Good enough for government work"

Where did you find the revised numbers?

I'm using the economic calendar on Investing.com

https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/

In the "Previous" column you can see if the numbers for the previous reporting period have been revised (red for revision down, green for up) and hover over it to see the tooltip with the previous pre-revision figures.

You can also click on a metric to see the history, and revisions are highlighted there as well in the "Previous" column.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'm using the economic calendar on Investing.com

https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/

In the "Previous" column you can see if the numbers for the previous reporting period have been revised (red for revision down, green for up) and hover over it to see the tooltip with the previous pre-revision figures.

You can also click on a metric to see the history, and revisions are highlighted there as well in the "Previous" column.

Thanks

Each month it buys them time I suppose, if you don't like the leads and lags the natural market provides, just create your own

Edited March 8 by Loki

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Capital controls weren't introduced in the 70's they were introduced in the 30's. They ended in the 70's.

https://speri-blog.sites.sheffield.ac.uk/blog/2017/capital-controls-back-on-the-agenda

 

What changed in the 1970`s is the key to why capital controls ended ,and it`s the key to the situation we are in now ,1971 was the year it was decided currencies would be backed by nothing,hence they could create as much as they liked when they chose ,hence there being no need for capital controls ,as there was in their eyes unlimited capital ,hence the USA`s $34 trillion of debt  

Edited March 8 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Payrolls are in and LOL at those revisions from previous month:

 

Nonfarm 353k revised down to 229k

Private 317k revised down to 177k

 

How on earth can you miss like that (routinely , I should add) and still be in your job.
 

I would swap routinely for constantly then to answer the question before it that easy they do it on purpose ,to play the markets ,after all two steps forward and one step back is still one step forward  

[Long time lurking]

Notice the terminology "severe geopolitical shock"

#BRICS +,this time they could well be telling the truth ,but ultimately it`s of their own making 

It wasn't us honestly gov 

 

Edited March 8 by Long time lurking

[M S E Refugee]

I swapped out some of my Gold for Silver and I'm tempted to sell more to buy some Precious Metals miners.

I keep hearing that they're dirt cheap.

[Long time lurking]

Some shocking numbers at the start is the GDP part correct ?

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

There were also morbid parts in Hunt's budget speech... in the segment about departmental tech-drive-for-cost-savings, he mentioned that Police drones would become first responders!! 

I don't know the scope of what he, or his political successors have in mind, but I do wonder how long before those drones are equipped with tasers?!

Police drones get my vote….maybe wokey baby faced teenager ones which let you kick them in the knackers.

Or alternatively a more robust regime might prevail. 😂😎

[Calcutta]

Had another little bite of FRES today. Already on its arse, if this is the start of a gold rally then I figure drug cartels like money and will get it sorted.

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Had another little bite of FRES today. Already on its arse, if this is the start of a gold rally then I figure drug cartels like money and will get it sorted.

A strong dose of buyer's remorse usually kicks in soon.

[JMD]

20 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Schumpeter, part time economist and by the looks of it also a vampire, said that "Intellectuals" would lead the people to ruin using a combination of bureaucracy and promises. He knew that entrepreneurialism was best but knew the hubris of "Intellectuals " would lead them to sacrifice anything for power and control.

Keynes, the famous paedo Whitehall mandarin (and investor in gold miners) said "Behind every politician is a dead economist" but I suppose it doesn't have to mean as a supportive idea

Schumpeter was certainly an impressive economic thinker. I wonder what economic model Europe will ultimately turn to? Probably will be a form of German pre-war social market Ordoliberalism, crucially something that Russia would be willing to engage with, and also hopefully pulling Russia away from China whilst also preventing war in Europe. However, will arch Neo-liberal America allow this to happen?

[Errol]

Gold being annoying. I was hoping it would do nothing for another year or so.

[Cattle Prod]

35 minutes ago, JMD said:

Schumpeter was certainly an impressive economic thinker. I wonder what economic model Europe will ultimately turn to? Probably will be a form of German pre-war social market Ordoliberalism, crucially something that Russia would be willing to engage with, and also hopefully pulling Russia away from China whilst also preventing war in Europe. However, will arch Neo-liberal America allow this to happen?

EU (not Europe, UK is still part of Europe 😉) turn to? It’s already chosen communism and grab everything not nailed down, I don’t know the fancy term for that. It’s really only Hungary holding back the tide now. It used to be a broader ex communist bulwark like Hungary and Poland, id be interested to hear @M S E Refugees take on developments in Poland since Tusk took over. 

[Cattle Prod]

9 minutes ago, Errol said:

Gold being annoying. I was hoping it would do nothing for another year or so.

@spunko the “Cringe” upvote thingy is a welcome new addition, could I suggest the little man wanking one? Nothing else quite fits the sentiment of how annoying gold is right now 😁
 
Edit:

GC1 (futures) just tapped 2200, sorry Errol!

Edited March 8 by Cattle Prod

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Bite The Fucking Pillow! (as an instruction to savers etc).

Oh, aka 'higher for longer'... ouch!

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

A strong dose of buyer's remorse usually kicks in soon.

Silver had a little spike over $25 before the Friday close Mr.Slammy came to town. 

That indicates direction however, the market is too tied up in the tech blowoff to notice. The rest of the miners will wake up and follow soon.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

How long can you keep buying each others bonds to keep the illusion going ?

I think it's called the Chuckle Bond shuffle... to me - to you!

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

You know we had age related allowances until fairly recently, when Osbanker abolished them? They could just bring them back if there was too much wailing.

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06158/SN06158.pdf

Yep. Give them a couple grand extra allowance and then charge them NI and windfall tax any public sector pension above £20k a year. Easy.

[sancho panza]

this is oen we've not covered in a while.telcoms-as discussed,the only sector where given vod performance we've actually in the red over the last foru years-however,as @DurhamBorn has recently discussed,look ready to run.

anyway jsut saw this chart and think it looks a compelling way to access EM's expecially india/indonesia/phillipines

5.6% yield,12 pe

balcne sheet looks one of the best in the sector although that doesnt mean much given how poor the majority of telco balance sheets are.

Ive coma scored it thus

chart  incomen BS    fcf   sector

4         4              4       3       4          =19 so steady she goes for 'spray n prayin'(anything over 17 a buy for me but dyor natch)

Edited March 8 by sancho panza

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Per @Harleys comments, here is a commentary from Napier written about 18 months ago. How do people think it's playing out? I accept the financial repression thesis, in terms of stealing money from bondholders, but he doesn't mention capital controls. If we are going back to the 70s, why were capital controls introduced then, and how were they enforced? Not in terms of holiday cash, but in terms of UK held securities etc.

Key bit for me in bold.

I thought Napier often mentioned the coming risk of capitol controls.

I seem to remember him enjoying referencing the Graham Greene novel 'Travels with my Aunt' as some sort of exampler? Though never having read the book i don't know what analogy or lesson he was alluding to.

Edited March 8 by JMD

[Errol]

 

[Errol]

I don't agree with this. If there was an imminent revaluation, gold would either be much, much higher (i.e. thousands of dollars higher) or doing absolutely nothing.

Edited March 8 by Errol

[PETR4]

3 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Notice the terminology "severe geopolitical shock"

#BRICS +,this time they could well be telling the truth ,but ultimately it`s of their own making 

It wasn't us honestly gov 

 

The full read is pretty interesting.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financial-stability/boe-system-wide-exploratory-scenario-exercise/detail-on-the-swes-hypothetical-scenario

It's based on "A significant geopolitical shock surprises markets, leading to a sharp deterioration in the economic outlook, financial asset prices begin to fall"

What significant geopolitical shock - that is an actual surprise - will cause a major sell off of advanced-economy government debt?

China dumping the USD for payments and only taking Yuan?