Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[RupertT]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Labour says it will use state bank to fund female-led businesses

Labour plans to set targets for funding female-led businesses through the state-owned British Business Bank and to launch a review of the financial exclusion of women, if it wins the next general election.

The initiatives, which will be announced on Monday by the shadow City minister Tulip Siddiq, form part of the party’s financial inclusion agenda, following a review by 10 City grandees earlier this year of Labour’s financial services strategy.

 

Siddiq will reveal plans for two new performance targets for the British Business Bank (BBB), the economic development bank best known for overseeing Covid funding schemes during the pandemic. That will include an “overall investment allocation target” towards businesses led by women, as well as those led by ethnic minority founders. The BBB will also be required to issue reports on the diversity of applicants it considered for funding.

The size of its funding targets have yet to be confirmed, but will be set in coordination with the BBB, Siddiq’s office said. However, a 2019 report by the BBB found that only 1% of venture capital investment in the UK went to companies founded by women.

As part of my job I see a lot of pitches from startup and early stage companies.  There's no lack of willingness to back female-led businesses and no lack of funding available - if they present a backable business they'll get funding, but the vast majority that I've seen are wellness apps / mental health / menopause etc.  Setting targets woulst just see unviable businesses being given funding.

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, MrFanciful said:

Isn't there an increased risk of women accidently moving the ball though?

They get all excited holding the cue and can't keep it steady. Seen it a million times.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, RupertT said:

As part of my job I see a lot of pitches from startup and early stage companies.  There's no lack of willingness to back female-led businesses and no lack of funding available - if they present a backable business they'll get funding, but the vast majority that I've seen are wellness apps / mental health / menopause etc.  Setting targets woulst just see unviable businesses being given funding.

They like businesses selling those little cup cakes as well. I've yet to decide if this is a bad business idea or not as everybody likes cakes and I can eat three chocolate cups cakes in one go.

Got to sell a lot of cakes though...

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

So the claimants I imagine will need to be put back into the position they would have been should they not have transferred out.

So for @DurhamBorn , me and several others in this thread who transferred it would mean taking money from us 🤦🏻‍♂️😆

Sounds like a splendid idea, and it would probably force you back to work after your early 2021 retirement [or so you thought!]!...have you ever thought of a career in politics?! :-)

I love a bit of Sacha 'venting his spleen', and so beautifully put:

 

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

This  -

Yes, pensioners have made their contributions and deserve to see the returns

The ones whove made 35y NI years, yep.

The 50%+ who havent can fuck off.

Scrap pension credits.

Play hard NI years.

Create some OP HJMO for work oddging OAPs, so the younger generation get the message.

 

I’ve got over 35 I’m safe

[Funn3r]

21 hours ago, ILikeCake said:

I mentioned this in the main forum but may be of interest here.  Mrs got a letter last week stating that her employer pension contribution (NHS) is increasing to 23.7% in April.  I knew the pensions were generous but that's obscene.

At the start of my DB pension long-decline-then-kicking-out process, I got an email saying the company contribution was 47% of my salary and it was projected to continue rising. This would be 2006 ish I think but not sure.

So 23.7% is piss all, long way to go yet.  Just relax.

 

[Phil]

57 minutes ago, King Penda said:

I’ve got over 35 I’m safe

+1

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was talking to me dad about this.He is of the opinion that to save this country we will need to destroy the Tories first.Not them lose,but wiped to less than 50 seats.Gone.Stage two will be then to destroy Labour.Farage back will cement things and likely some other big hitters will join.I find it incredible the Tories won the red wall,and then they decided to do destroy the country.

When the Tories won the red wall seats and had an 80 majority, I thought they were set fair. Now I think winning the red wall seats worked against them. They had too many red wall MPs pushing for left wing policies to keep their seats. You can please some of the people some of the time, some of the people all the time but you can't please all the people all the time.

[spygirl]

53 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

At the start of my DB pension long-decline-then-kicking-out process, I got an email saying the company contribution was 47% of my salary and it was projected to continue rising. This would be 2006 ish I think but not sure.

So 23.7% is piss all, long way to go yet.  Just relax.

 

You might be old enough to have worked for one of those gormless orgs that took a pension holiday in the late 80s, only to find out the actury was a loon.

 

[Funn3r]

11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

You might be old enough to have worked for one of those gormless orgs that took a pension holiday in the late 80s, only to find out the actury was a loon.

 

Yes we had pension holiday. People getting made redundant, which was all the time, were instead given "early retirement" at 50 as if they had been 60. Incredibly jammy although the only bloke I knew who took it to found a garden centre plants business died after about 5 months.

I heard convincing explanation that they actually had no choice for the holidays it was either that or the over-funded fund pays an incredible load of extra tax. 

Edited March 11 by Funn3r
clarify

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

When the Tories won the red wall seats and had an 80 majority, I thought they were set fair. Now I think winning the red wall seats worked against them. They had too many red wall MPs pushing for left wing policies to keep their seats. You can please some of the people some of the time, some of the people all the time but you can't please all the people all the time.

Not up here,most of them were very right wing,my new MP included,they were pushing for right wing policies,it was the shire Tories,and the South Coast ones that have done the damage,the ones who didnt understand the Red Wall voted for less bennies,less state,not more.The irony is the Tories are going to be wiped out because they pursued left wing policy on steroids.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Yes we had pension holiday. People getting made redundant, which was all the time, were instead given "early retirement" at 50 as if they had been 60. Incredibly jammy although the only bloke I knew who took it to found a garden centre plants business died after about 5 months.

I heard convincing explanation that they actually had no choice for the holidays it was either that or the over-funded fund pays an incredible load of extra tax. 

Yes they had to pay huge tax if overfunded,government thought they were voiding Corporation tax stuffing the pension scheme.My scheme to get rid of the surplus just gave us all free years,have 4 years added on,etc.They pretty much had a redundancy  every 3 or 4 years just so everyone could get £40k redundancy back then and take their pensions at 50.Guys 48 would start training people up so they could take VR at 50.The only ones who didnt were the ones who had not been there a long time.There were a few who worked until 60,the default scheme retirement age,but they were mostly single blokes who had been through a divorce in their 40s or 50s or ones who didnt really have a life outside of work.Incredible to think the difference to now in the private sector.

[desertorchid]

6 hours ago, Errol said:

Yes - agreed. Eventually one woman will presumably come along who is good enough. That's just for snooker though - which doesn't have the physical requirements of F1.

Women just do not have the hand eye coordination to be top level. It really is that simple. The pundits just say there is not enough money in the womens game however. 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

Women just do not have the hand eye coordination to be top level. It really is that simple. The pundits just say there is not enough money in the womens game however. 

I have got a mate who does the whole virtue signaling thing about women's football being fantastic, I have no idea how he comes to that conclusion as he is blind.

[Funn3r]

16 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

Women just do not have the hand eye coordination to be top level. It really is that simple. The pundits just say there is not enough money in the womens game however. 

Hitting a ball with a stick. How hard can it be? Anyone could do it if they were willing to put in the years of effort hitting ball with stick day in day out.

I would much prefer to watch women playing snooker than blokes. Don't care if I never see Ronnie's arse ever again.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

When the Tories won the red wall seats and had an 80 majority, I thought they were set fair. Now I think winning the red wall seats worked against them. They had too many red wall MPs pushing for left wing policies to keep their seats. You can please some of the people some of the time, some of the people all the time but you can't please all the people all the time.

The thing is though, the red wall are (generalising) socially conservative and traditional "workers" centred economic left-wing. The downfall of the tories has been policies that were nothing like that IMO, we have had authoritarian "progressive" social leftism and "benefits" centred big govt. Its the big donors and Islington dinner party circuit that have had their interests served IMO.

[Mapper]

On 09/03/2024 at 04:36, DurhamBorn said:

They dont need to reset the financial system,they need to reset the imbalances.China nor the US want the other to collapse,they like the status quo.The West needs more production,China needs more consumption.Thats the reason gold will run,because both sides want a weaker dollar.The US to encourage onshoring of production,China to encourage consumption (it makes their population happy).Gold is not sniffing some promised a million times happens once scenario,its sniffing this re-balance,a weakening dollar,elevated inflation for a long time.It also comes just as the US credit cycle moves to the private sector.

I cannot keep up with this thread these days so I skim read it. I know I am missing a lot but I still catch some good stuff. The above from DB caught my eye. I have to say amazing insight.

I listen to a lot of macro commentators, inflationists, deflationists, all kinds of -ists, but I don't think any of them has talked about from this angle.

If it is obvious to any of you others, then bravo, hats off to you.

This thread has given me a lot, but it still amazes me with what it produces. Long may it continue.

[baffledbyzirp]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

you can see the set up coming here.Mark Carney,someone who got paid millions by British taxpayers to neitehr raise or lower intersts rates for 8 years while infaltion pressures builts.then the Chair of USS pensions Carol Young(uni pensions schemes).C S Venkatakrishnan CEO Barclays.coming together to invest Bristih savers funds.....

Labru basically cant print or tax,so they'regoing to raid savings to pay for their whims n fancies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/10/labour-hires-mark-carney-private-investment-spending-plans/

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has appointed some of Britain’s most senior business leaders for advice on raising private investment through its proposed National Wealth Fund. 

Ms Reeves has been forced to find new ways of paying for Labour’s spending promises after Jeremy Hunt used his Budget last week to scrap the non-dom tax regime – a key Labour pledge – and put the money towards cutting national insurance.

Labour has since ruled out a tax on the wealthy to plug the funding gap for its manifesto pledges.

It came after Sir Keir Starmer last month abandoned his flagship pledge to spend £28bn on green investment each year and blamed the country’s poor finances.

The party has promised that each £1 of public money will be backed up by £3 of private sector investment.

Ms Reeves’ advisory committee includes Mr Carney, former Bank of England governor and C S Venkatakrishnan, the chief executive of Barclays, The Sunday Times first reported. 

They are joined by Carol Young, the chief executive of USS, the UK’s largest private pension scheme, plus executives from investment companies Equitix and Brunel Pension.

Those cunts are playing political chess and we are the pawns!

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Not up here,most of them were very right wing,my new MP included,they were pushing for right wing policies,it was the shire Tories,and the South Coast ones that have done the damage,the ones who didnt understand the Red Wall voted for less bennies,less state,not more.The irony is the Tories are going to be wiped out because they pursued left wing policy on steroids.

I thought when it was up in the air about raising bennies with inflation, energy subsidies etc, it was the red wall MPs wailing about losing their seats if they didn't do it because voters in those places were the most skint.

Quote

 

The Tories are facing electoral oblivion in the red wall as a shock poll reveals they will lose every single seat.

Polling from Electoral Calculus, shared with The Independent, reveals all 42 red wall seats held by the Conservatives are set to return to Labour at the next general election.

The scale of the rebellion against the government appears to in part be driven by the spiralling cost of living, with a separate analysis seen by The Independent showing the crisis is having a devastating impact on Tory-held seats in the red wall.

The data, compiled by analytics firm Outra, show 15 Conservative-held red wall seats, which were won at the last election but have historically supported the Labour Party, are among the 50 constituencies with the highest number of financially distressed voters in the country.

Such as Great Grimsby, Blackpool South and Walsall North are among those with the highest portion of voters deemed financially vulnerable.

In total, 15 of the top 50 seats in which voters are at risk of falling behind on their bills were won by the Conservatives in 2019.

It follows research by investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown that shows the northeast has been hit hard by the cost of living crisis – with the joint lowest level of savings in the country, and just a third of households reporting they have enough cash left at the end of the month.

The figures will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street, with experts warning that voters facing financial distress will make their voices heard in the ballot box.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-sunak-tories-polls-red-wall-b2396272.html

 

 

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm an incredible stock picker.

I routinely find myself in stocks that don't do things like open up 17%.

It's quite the knack.

oh I wouldn't worry, I have a bunch of notes in small miners which have gone sideways or down for 18 months (one excepted).  

GDXJ gives me the reach around, individual small miners use a strap on.

[DurhamBorn]

Incredible how they woke up once it has happened.Cross market the macro you saw this as certain four years ago.

The best bit.I sat in front of Catherine Mann in a one to one meeting and told her why inflation would be so high and why them monetising welfare had caused it and would now cause a mass exodus from the workforce and the idea that the economy would self regulate was pie in the sky because we were now in a distribution cycle.

Yet here she is now it is upon us saying that very same thing.If only they had some diversity on the MPC instead of a load of economics students.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/11/four-million-abandoning-work-permanently-benefits-surge/

Speaking at a Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) event, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann said there had been a “dramatic deterioration in the estimated potential supply for the United Kingdom.”

“Where does this come from? It comes from a variety of sources, principally, however, the labour force participation rate in the UK has not recovered to its pre-Covid rate.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I thought when it was up in the air about raising bennies with inflation, energy subsidies etc, it was the red wall MPs wailing about losing their seats if they didn't do it because voters in those places were the most skint.

 

Not the ones up here,mostly right wing,they are furious with the party.I suspect some more might join Reform.

[Virgil Caine]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The thing is though, the red wall are (generalising) socially conservative and traditional "workers" centred economic left-wing. The downfall of the tories has been policies that were nothing like that IMO, we have had authoritarian "progressive" social leftism and "benefits" centred big govt. It’s the big donors and Islington dinner party circuit that have had their interests served IMO.

Next time Rishi Sunak gives a speech shut your eyes and the sound of the voice you will hear is Tony Blair. This has been more or less the recipe for electoral success since 1997 whichever party was winning at the polls. The likes of Reform want to wind the clock back to the Thatcher era but while they  may have an apparently socially conservative agenda their retro Tory Boy leadership is going to be a tough sell in the Red Wall as Rochdale proved. Worse unlike Thatcher they don’t have giveaways like Right To Buy or Privatisation shares with which to buy aspirational working class votes. Dare I say it what a lot of voters of that sort would like is a socially conservative but economically left wing government. The British electoral system seems determined to deny them that choice. There is nothing like  Germany’s Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in the U.K. I leave it to people to decide why that might be the case.

Edited March 12 by Virgil Caine

[Kendo]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible how they woke up once it has happened.Cross market the macro you saw this as certain four years ago.

The best bit.I sat in front of Catherine Mann in a one to one meeting and told her why inflation would be so high and why them monetising welfare had caused it and would now cause a mass exodus from the workforce and the idea that the economy would self regulate was pie in the sky because we were now in a distribution cycle.

Yet here she is now it is upon us saying that very same thing.If only they had some diversity on the MPC instead of a load of economics students.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/11/four-million-abandoning-work-permanently-benefits-surge/

 

Just saw this and was about to post it. Unusually for The Telegraph, it’s open access so they want plenty of people to read this.

[XswampyX]

9 minutes ago, Kendo said:

Just saw this and was about to post it. Unusually for The Telegraph, it’s open access so they want plenty of people to read this.

Well spotted. It's so obvious when you know. 

Euuuuk! Maybe not :-

Edited March 12 by XswampyX