Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

From the comments of that report, outlines everything said about the state taking it all..

Kinell.

Inflation linked.That coppers pension went up £4k last year.Private sector need to save £100k+ to get that increase.The police precept just pays for pensions,not police.Why would you join up now to get a low salary and no pension until likely 70 .

 

[wherebee]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes LVT dissueds the buying up of land assets where the owners simply wait to benefit from 'normal' property cycle appreciation and speculation. Therefore the economically wasteful/socially destructive real estate trading focus and bubble is diminished, and instead capitol is directed into productive enterprise. Plus banks reduce their often rabid focus on increasing their collateral by making property loans, and instead return to (the harder task of) business lending.

Obviously I'm no expert and neither do I naively expect a tax revolution to happen any time soon. However the crucial thing for me is at least understanding more about the ways and means we've been lied to and manipulated. Is LVT i wonder the biggest - hidden and unobserved - historical psyop?!

Anyway i have occasionally over the years dropped what I consider the important topic of LVT into the thread. Thing is each time I have got pushback along the lines of 'LVT is just another wealth tax, so it must automatically be rejected'. Interestingly no objections this time, though I think that might be because I'm now on mute!

thay have effective LVT in many US states - eye watering local rates set by local councils, or whatever they call them.

Doesn't seem to have slowed the gap between rich and poor.

[Libspero]

1 hour ago, Alifelessbinary said:

I put a ladder into Vodaphone and this is how it repays me!

Let’s hope they do a Centrica soon, as the market really hates them at the moment. I assume they are just preparing for the inevitable divi cut.

Everything else is flying though, so can’t grumble.

 

 

PE is 2..    very tempting….    just something about catching falling knives that worries me.   I might wait to see if it starts to climb a little first,  then regret not having had a flutter sooner.

[Hardhat]

Does anyone know if there is a point, presumably in 30-40 years time , when most of the public sector defined benefit / index linked pensions will be completed (beneficiaries deceased), as that will very much change the generational balance of liquidity?

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Lager is 27.92 so over 50% of your "food" bill?

@King Pendas food pyramid is shaped more like a massive cock, with a crate of lager as the base.

[invalid]

2 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Does anyone know if there is a point, presumably in 30-40 years time , when most of the public sector defined benefit / index linked pensions will be completed (beneficiaries deceased), as that will very much change the generational balance of liquidity?

 

A relatives husband has just retired from the police and I understand only just made it out on the original terms. Don't know many details but understand its something to do with those on the original police pension but they changed the terms, rather than the new police pension.

Either way, I suspect we are just at the beginning of that process and that it will take around 30 years to play out. Would also guess at it being a bell curve, the bulk of the impact being between 10 and 20 years from now.

Just my guesses and speculation.

 

[King Penda]

29 minutes ago, feed said:

Cut benefits instead of relying on migration to bring down debt, says OBR chief (msn.com)

Even the OBR

 

They darnt and labour won’t 

[One percent]

I think this goes here

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13056551/Woke-capitalism-funds-COLLAPSED-13B-year-investors-ESG-greenwashing-leftist.html

US sustainability funds — which conservatives have derided as 'woke capitalism' — saw their worst year on record in 2023, with investors pulling $13 billion from US funds, a Morningstar report says.

That multi-billion dollar exodus in the US more than offset the inward flows seen in Europe, dragging down the market globally.

In the fourth quarter alone, investors withdrew $5 billion from funds that promote environmental, social, and governance (ESG) efforts, making the fifth straight quarter of net outflows, the report says.
 

According to Morningstar, a financial services firm, investors exited ESG amid fears of poor returns, a hidden leftist agenda, and 'greenwashing,' or making a firm appear more environmentally friendly than it really is.

 

[King Penda]

15 minutes ago, wherebee said:

@King Pendas food pyramid is shaped more like a massive cock, with a crate of lager as the base.

It’s full of protein allegedly.

[King Penda]

But let’s not look at facts can we guess what it means for the avarage person in the future 

[StrugglingMillennial]

Nvidia seems to be quietly marching on, Arm is following a similar pattern.

Does anyone know why so much money is entering the sector, possibly the effects of the US chip embargoes on China?

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Does anyone know if there is a point, presumably in 30-40 years time , when most of the public sector defined benefit / index linked pensions will be completed (beneficiaries deceased), as that will very much change the generational balance of liquidity?

They've reined in outliers like the police and fire fighters schemes, and pushed the age back across the board, but for the big schemes they pumped up the accrual rate when they brought in the reforms that took them from final salary to career average so they are still pretty generous.

For example, you can still join as a new starter in the civil service and get a defined benefit career average pension linked to RPI that will be based on an accrual of 1/43rd of your annual salary each year. What that means is that if you started on £43k (for easy maths!), it would take you 15 years to get a £15k a year pension that's indexed to RPI.

Council is 1/49, NHS 1/54, and Teacher's 1/57. That's a lot of people.

Edited February 7 by SpectrumFX
rein not reign :)

[Chewing Grass]

This is quite an interesting video when you think about it, on a global scale it tells you something about the mother of all consumer society.

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/07/cut-benefits-instead-relying-migration-bring-down-debt-obr/

Incredible they only now start to see the problem.Its much worse than they think though.Its certain systemic collapse unless they make massive cuts.

[Transistor Man]

28 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Does anyone know why so much money is entering the sector, possibly the effects of the US chip embargoes on China?

AI hype.

I remember JDS Uniphase going completely vertical in 99/ 2000 on the telecoms/ internet hype. A small university spin out I knew got bought by them for $750 million (back when that was 750 million) after doing a demo of a tiny micro mirror redirecting a laser. 

Edited February 7 by Transistor Man

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Lager is 27.92 so over 50% of your "food" bill?

"Mag 4 Pack" innit!

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/07/cut-benefits-instead-relying-migration-bring-down-debt-obr/

Incredible they only now start to see the problem.Its much worse than they think though.Its certain systemic collapse unless they make massive cuts.

From the article, they absolutely refuse to acknowledge what the problem is as it would publicise it to the slow of thinking, they just call it 'distortions'.

If all the longer-run adjustments that are needed to maintain fiscal sustainability come on the tax side, then tax revenues relative to total incomes are likely to need to rise further. The distortions that such continued tax rises generate are likely to become substantial.

That is because a well-known result in the economics of taxation is that a rising tax take, with tax rates rising within a broadly unchanged structure of taxation, would mean that distortions would plausibly rise at increasing rates. Such distortions are more likely to rise with the square of tax rates rather than with its level.

That would mean that whatever extra damage is done to incentives to work, save, invest and innovate by a rise in overall tax rates from 35pc to 40pc would be about 15pc greater than a rise from 30pc to 35pc. A rise from 40pc to 45pc would bring costs that are 13pc greater than that again.

Also the Co I work for typically charges out middling 'Engineers' at £65/hr bums on seats, 40 hrs per week, 46 weeks per year.

Call it £120K, now they (Yankees) take their cut, plus agency fees, admin etc, so knock 20% off.

£96K left.

Pension scheme costs plus apprentice levy of the order 20%

£76K left.

Total deductions Employers NI £12000, NI £5500, TAX £18100, Pension £19200 (deferred tax)

Effective Tax Rate is over 50% of all earnings.

Take home from £120K Salary earned from clients = £792 per week.

This is how expensive it is to 'do stuff' in the UK.

 

[King Penda]

31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/07/cut-benefits-instead-relying-migration-bring-down-debt-obr/

Incredible they only now start to see the problem.Its much worse than they think though.Its certain systemic collapse unless they make massive cuts.

Fuck me in 9 years I might even be more sexy to single women than I am now ….is this actually possible? 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/07/cut-benefits-instead-relying-migration-bring-down-debt-obr/

Incredible they only now start to see the problem.Its much worse than they think though.Its certain systemic collapse unless they make massive cuts.

The assumptions they've been using are madness. Proven by their own statistics showing that mass migration policies have utterly failed over 20 years. If 20 years ago debt to GDP was 40% and now it is 100% then you should have stopped what you were doing a decade ago.

Revising up the predicted migration number to make available more income is marking your own homework. It is bonkers. Does no-one take a step back and think? At all.

Why would migrants be thought of as interchangeable and equal? That is nonsense and even communists realise that everyone has different abilities (from everyone according to ability, to everyone according to their need - they forget about motivation and competition but recognise varying ability). We should be training our own anyway. Some loon was on the radio this morning saying they keep bringing in dentists from around the world but they soon leave the NHS for private practice. Train British people instead. They are more likely have loyalty to the idea of the NHS and stick with it. No-one can argue that British people don't want to be doctors and dentists, we like money as much as anyone else.

Edited February 7 by Yadda yadda yadda

[Mandalorian]

5 hours ago, headrow said:

Dec 2021 was the previous top. Vodafone has halved in price since

 

 

Cough.  Told you so.  Cough.

Keep buying BATS

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The assumptions they've been using are madness. Proven by their own statistics showing that mass migration policies have utterly failed over 20 years. If 20 years ago debt to GDP was 40% and now it is 100% then you should have stopped what you were doing a decade ago.

Revising up the predicted migration number to make available more income is marking your own homework. It is bonkers. Does no-one take a step back and think? At all.

Why would migrants be thought of as interchangeable and equal? That is nonsense and even communists realise that everyone has different abilities (from everyone according to ability, to everyone according to their need - they forget about motivation and competition but recognise varying ability). We should be training our own anyway. Some loon was on the radio this morning saying there is no point bringing in dentists from around the world if they soon leave the NHS for private practice. Train British people instead. They are more likely have loyalty to the idea of the NHS and stick with it. No-one can argue that British people don't want to be doctors and dentists, we like money as much as anyone else.

Well we do and don’t like money I’m quite happy to do lots of hours but only if it suits me . Don’t compare what I earn to you rich professionals concider my council house mentality to yours . Do you think I like paying this much tax  ?  And do you think I’m going to do something about it in the near future stunts like you lot can’t do because of large mortgages debt or simply how others think of you . Dam right I’m thinking fuck this I’ve earnt that on shit wages in a bit over 7 months my patience is wearing thin . I can live on 2 shifts a week probably take home 270 a week and pay next to no tax .once I’ve got my next house I’m doing the bare fucking minimum I might even become a carer get a lodger and go on universal credits and retire .options are good but ps I’m not actually lazy lol

[Mandalorian]

3 minutes ago, King Penda said:

 ps I’m not actually lazy lol

I am.  Ridiculously so.

Why would you not be?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Well we do and don’t like money I’m quite happy to do lots of hours but only if it suits me . Don’t compare what I earn to you rich professionals concider my council house mentality to yours . Do you think I like paying this much tax  ?  And do you think I’m going to do something about it in the near future stunts like you lot can’t do because of large mortgages debt or simply how others think of you . Dam right I’m thinking fuck this I’ve earnt that on shit wages in a bit over 7 months my patience is wearing thin . I can live on 2 shifts a week probably take home 270 a week and pay next to no tax .once I’ve got my next house I’m doing the bare fucking minimum I might even become a carer get a lodger and go on universal credits and retire .options are good but ps I’m not actually lazy lol

Listen to yerself. "Once I've got my next house..."

[honkydonkey]

1 minute ago, Mandalorian said:

I am.  Ridiculously so.

Why would you not be?

Lazy man works the hardest

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Listen to yerself. "Once I've got my next house..."

That’s because my next house will give me that many options it’s unreal and I’m not fucking joking