Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Loki]

22 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

. Proven by their own statistics showing that mass migration policies have utterly failed over 20 years.

That depends what their actual intentions were 

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

That depends what their actual intentions were 

To piss me off no doubt .if my boss thinks I’m going to poach Africans to go against me for shifts she realy is fucking stupid .  I’ve aready told her I won’t give black people lifts even if from

my agency then said I don’t care who you recruit but only a fucking idiot recruits people who can’t get to a job . The irony is she is has racist has I am 

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It looks like being an IMF-like event. A rapid deterioration in public finances that forces significant spending cuts. Possibly accompanied by a bridging loan from the IMF or some other body with strings attached.

Initially I thought, well if the UK did receive IMF funding, this country would at least be prevented from waging any wars because that was the strict term condition imposed on any country before it could qualify for a loan package. ...Unfortunately the IMF changed its own rules last year so that it could make loans to Ukraine. Yet another example of a strategic (is it?) change in the geopolitics arising out of the Ukrainian conflict. 

Edited February 7 by JMD

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Nvidia seems to be quietly marching on, Arm is following a similar pattern.

Does anyone know why so much money is entering the sector, possibly the effects of the US chip embargoes on China?

Arm pretty much owns the market / ecosystem for embedded midrange computing and Nvidia setting themselves up for much the same for massively parallel processing.  There's always been competition for Arm but the toolsets seem to be good enough for engineers just to pick them regardless of other competing factors so they grew and kept their market, Nvidia looks to be trying to do the same sort of play. I don't think embargoes make much difference, Arm licensed their cores so all and sundry could manufacture anywhere and Nvidia stuff will be manufactured where they are allowed, this is all about what will still be in heavy demand, embedded is not going anywhere, there will be more AI / parallel computing intensive based systems.  As for valuations, just the market buying up whatever they think is pretty much guaranteed to grow.  

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, King Penda said:

That’s because my next house will give me that many options it’s unreal and I’m not fucking joking 

Options to get money for nothing and chicks for free. You do like money and all of us on here don't like paying tax. Probably all doing something about it too.

[Loki]

@Bobthebuilder

Spend 20 years importing cheap cheap cheap cheap, gotta be cheap, cheap labour and kicking the legs from underneath indigenous trades 

It's all so unexpected 

 

 

 

Oh there is just one thing

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/financial/administrations/

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/02/07/administrators-appointed-at-readie-construction/

 

 

Still the government money hose just keeps on flowin'

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/02/07/mace-wins-pm-role-for-2-8bn-animal-disease-science-hub/

 

To keep us safe from the next Deadly Pandemic (Survival rate 99%) or sending DEFRA round to gas flocks of chickens because the PCR test that isn't a diagnostic tool said so

Edited February 7 by Loki

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Options to get money for nothing and chicks for free. You do like money and all of us on here don't like paying tax. Probably all doing something about it too.

I hope so . And the more who kick back the bigger my errection gets .

[Loki]

1 minute ago, King Penda said:

the bigger my errection gets .

I didn't know you were still in construction 

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

@Bobthebuilder

Spend 20 years importing cheap cheap cheap cheap, gotta be cheap, cheap labour and kicking the legs from underneath indigenous trades 

It's all so unexpected 

 

 

 

Oh there is just one thing

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/financial/administrations/

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/02/07/administrators-appointed-at-readie-construction/

 

 

Still the government money hose just keeps on flowin'

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/02/07/mace-wins-pm-role-for-2-8bn-animal-disease-science-hub/

 

To keep us safe from the next Deadly Pandemic (Survival rate 99%) or sending DEFRA round to gas flocks of chickens because the PCR test that isn't a diagnostic tool said so

I used to catch chickens for a living I’m not joking 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Interesitng piece here from the Sceptic.

quite a few on here, not least @Cattle Prod have cited the seizure of foreign assets by the US/UK/EU as the game changign moment( froma geopolitical perpsective)of the last two years ,driving the process of dedollarization and actively pushing BRICS++ to trade their commodities in other currencies.It only dawned on me when people on here explained it.

this piece also highlights how the Russians appear to haev dodged the sanctions

in anotehr 'no sh1t sherlock' moment, it turns out we're now buying more Russian gas than we were before the war.

we really are led by idiots in the West at the minute.

https://dailysceptic.org/2024/02/06/the-russia-sanctions-didnt-work/

The Russia Sanctions Didn’t Work

by Noah Carl

6 February 2024 9:00 AM

One month after Russian tanks rolled across the border, President Biden announced that “the ruble was almost immediately reduced to rubble” and “the Russian economy is on track to be cut in half”. Likewise, the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire foresaw “the collapse of the Russian economy”. Russia “was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion,” Biden added. “Soon, it will not even rank among the top 20”.

How have these predictions panned out?

Not well. As an article in the FT notes, “Russia grew faster than all G7 economies last year and the IMF forecasts it will again in 2024”. So not only has the Russian economy failed to collapse – let alone be cut in half – but it’s actually growing at a steady clip. According to the IMF, Russia grew 2.6% in 2023, as compared to 0.8% in France, 0.5% in Britain and –0.3% in Germany.

A big problem for the West is that the stuff Russia sells – oil and gas – is extremely useful. So one way or another, countries are going to try to get their hands on it. This includes Europe. As of Q3 2023, Russia still accounts for 12% of the EU’s natural gas imports – and more than 20% of its fertiliser imports. In fact, EU imports of Russian LNG have jumped 40% since the invasion began so that EU countries now account for the majority of Russia’s LNG exports.

Another big problem is that Russia has a strong ally in China, the world’s second most powerful country and the main geopolitical rival of the US. While China has refrained from supplying lethal aid to Russia for sound strategic reasons, it absolutely wants to avoid a scenario where the Russian state falls apart. As I wrote of the Chinese last summer, “they can’t tolerate a defeated Russia but can easily live with a weakened one”.

Indeed, there’s strong evidence that China is helping Russia to evade Western sanctions. Since the war began, Chinese exports to Russia have grown 40%. And its exports to Russia’s neighbours have risen even more. China is now selling 63% more goods and services to Kazahkstan, and its exports to Belarus and Georgia have more than doubled. Did they suddenly unearth massive new markets in central Asia, or are they just selling sanctioned products through the back door?

Chart by Robin Brooks.

Interestingly, the pattern is similar when you look at German exports (shown above). Shortly after the start of Russia’s invasion, the total value of goods sold to Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Georgia and Kazakhstan went through the roof. As economist Robin Brooks notes, “it’s obvious this stuff is going to Moscow”.

If there’s strong demand for something, preventing people from supplying that thing is always an uphill battle. This is why prohibition didn’t work: people still wanted alcohol and as a result bootlegging became widespread. It’s the same with sanctioned products. The Russians still want them and are willing to pay hard currency, so sellers find a way around the sanctions.

Of course, the relative ineffectiveness of the sanctions against Russia’s economy isn’t the worst part. The worst part is they’re hurting Europe – including Britain.

Wow, those German export graphs are interesting...  My time horizon for Mitteleuropa has reduced from 20 years to 2 years!

[King Penda]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

I didn't know you were still in construction 

Destruction nowadays she always complains she is saw after a visit. She seems to be hinting about tommorow night 

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

@Bobthebuilder

Spend 20 years importing cheap cheap cheap cheap, gotta be cheap, cheap labour and kicking the legs from underneath indigenous trades 

It's all so unexpected 

 

 

 

Oh there is just one thing

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/financial/administrations/

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/02/07/administrators-appointed-at-readie-construction/

 

 

Still the government money hose just keeps on flowin'

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/02/07/mace-wins-pm-role-for-2-8bn-animal-disease-science-hub/

 

To keep us safe from the next Deadly Pandemic (Survival rate 99%) or sending DEFRA round to gas flocks of chickens because the PCR test that isn't a diagnostic tool said so

Trades are going the same way as independent potters and craftsmen, dead in the water by 2030 would be my guess. Who is going to fucking bother if they take over 50% of your turnover? Fuck that.

38 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Cough.  Told you so.  Cough.

Keep buying BATS

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Who is going to fucking bother if they take over 50% of your turnover? Fuck that.

I can barely be bothered now

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I can barely be bothered now

I have pretty much stopped, only doing repeat regular customers. Every new contact seems to want me to work for free, after expenses and tax, so they can fuck off.

[King Penda]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

I can barely be bothered now

You have to force yourself go through the pain barrier.  I’ve got a couple of Africans at work trying to get off with me ones probably 37 the other 42 ish . This is is spite of me being known has a racist person . They won’t class me has racist because I do actually get on rather well with lots of the African men . I’ve zero interest in them they just don’t get it 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

I am.  Ridiculously so.

Why would you not be?

if we didn't have lazy people, we'd still be sitting in caves.  Every invention that lead to modern day comfort is linked to lazyness.

I want to eat that deer over there.  My dad tells me I just have to run after it slowly for 24 hours and it will die  fuck that, I'll invent a bow and arrow.

I want to not be cold in the winter.  My dad tells me I have to kill animals and wear their skins all day and night, and huddle in a heap with smelly Bob.  fuck that, I'll invent fire and firepits.

etc etc

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I am ambivilent on LVT. It could easily be a way to drag the struggling middle down to the proletariat by shaving down their assets in the later years. I do like the idea of owning land/housing and just pulling up the drawbridge at retirement. Property taxes in the US function in this way, and actively push people out of gentrifying neighbourhoods as the taxes spiral acting as a form of social cleansing. The flip side is that the lack of an LVT is stopping people buying to start with.

An LVT that exempted genuine personal primary residences and small holdings could work for me, but the implementation would be a minefield.

For ordinary public affordability there are many ways LVT could be set similar to what local domestic council taxes are for most householders, but for expensive properties i don't see the problem in transitioning them over time to an effective higher charge. And maybe could be two LVT rates, one for commercial land values, another for residential values. 

It's not about raising more taxes or creating administrative 'minefields'. The management cost would be insubstantial compared to the positive productivity kick to the economy. And I could add that our destructive property cycle already helps 'blow up' the economy every 18 years!

It's actually about reducing taxes on the productive members of society/elements of the economy, and raising taxes on those extracting economic-rent. I understand your drawbridge analogy, but it cuts both ways, and currently many rich individuals/corporations are able to hide much of their taxable wealth-generation behind said impenitable portcullises. 

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

Nothing that 1000 or so well-paid competent government employees can't handle

Perhaps some of the AI replaced accountants could be reassigned to help collect the LVT. I even expect it would be an easier task than calculating corporation tax? Particularly with land being physical and having no deductibles!

Edited February 8 by JMD

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

In all human history have there been that many tho?

Well certainly not since the days of Sparta...

https://www.history.com/news/8-reasons-it-wasnt-easy-being-spartan

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

thay have effective LVT in many US states - eye watering local rates set by local councils, or whatever they call them.

Doesn't seem to have slowed the gap between rich and poor.

Some US property taxes are higher than here but overall don't appear eye watering to me. For example Texas LVT is considered high yet many move there because its other state taxes are low, so swings and roundabouts. Plus it's only on residential land, not commercial and where they apply capital gains taxes, so don't think it's a good LVT example.

https://smartasset.com/taxes/lowest-property-tax-states

 

Edited February 8 by JMD

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Some US property taxes are higher than here but overall don't appear eye watering to me. For example Texas LVT is considered high yet many move there because its other state taxes are low, so swings and roundabouts. Plus it's only on residential land, not commercial and where they apply capital gains taxes, so don't think it's a good LVT example.

https://smartasset.com/taxes/lowest-property-tax-states

 

I know people that live not a million miles away from this listing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2169-E-Seneca-St-Lodi-NY-14860/2053838168_zpid/

House for under 200k.  Great place for a family.  Property taxes 4-5k a year.  That's a fair whack, in my book.  And from what I hear, they only ever creep up year by year.

So you have to earn 7kish to be able to pay your property tax with your after tax income.  Around there, jobs over 100k hard to come by.  So that's around 10% of your salary on property tax every year.

 

[Bien Pensant]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

I know people that live not a million miles away from this listing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2169-E-Seneca-St-Lodi-NY-14860/2053838168_zpid/

House for under 200k.  Great place for a family.  Property taxes 4-5k a year.  That's a fair whack, in my book.  And from what I hear, they only ever creep up year by year.

So you have to earn 7kish to be able to pay your property tax with your after tax income.  Around there, jobs over 100k hard to come by.  So that's around 10% of your salary on property tax every year.

I bet they are, it's literally in the middle of nowhere - the fat end of 70 miles by road from either Rochester or Syracuse, which are, by population, roughly the equivalent of Southampton and Middlesbrough, respectively.

No disrespect to the proud municipality of Ovid, just 4 miles away, with its 542 souls, several shops and a McDonalds, but, honestly, I think I'd go fucking mad there - go outside, walk round the yard, go back inside again, it'd be like being in clink.

Edited February 8 by Bien Pensant

[Onsamui]

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

I know people that live not a million miles away from this listing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2169-E-Seneca-St-Lodi-NY-14860/2053838168_zpid/

House for under 200k.  Great place for a family.  Property taxes 4-5k a year.  That's a fair whack, in my book.  And from what I hear, they only ever creep up year by year.

So you have to earn 7kish to be able to pay your property tax with your after tax income.  Around there, jobs over 100k hard to come by.  So that's around 10% of your salary on property tax every year.

 

That ceiling!

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Bien Pensant said:

I bet they are, it's literally in the middle of nowhere - the fat end of 70 miles by road from either Rochester or Syracuse, which are, by population, roughly the equivalent of Southampton and Middlesbrough, respectively.

No disrespect to the proud municipality of Ovid, just 4 miles away, with its 542 souls, several shops and a McDonalds, but, honestly, I think I'd go fucking mad there - go outside, walk round the yard, go back inside again, it'd be like being in clink.

that's my point.  you're paying an annual tax every year on that in the middle of fucknowhere.  imagine the tax in long island!

[headrow]

12 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Lager is 27.92 so over 50% of your "food" bill?

I can get 24 500ml cans of Tyskie 5.5% for £20.

 

I'm doing my bit to deprive HMRC of the tax on that . On that £27.92 I presume £5.50 would go to the treasury?