Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[M S E Refugee]

5 hours ago, Joxer said:

Australia only has 3 destroyers to defend 20,000 miles of coastline.

It will be obvious in hindsight that Australia didn't stand a chance of repelling a Chinese invasion and all Australian shares were a dodgy investment choice.

With the benefit of hindsight I would have just converted every penny I had into Gold and Silver and kept it outside the financial system.

With the upcoming financial repression, our money won't be safe whatever financial institution its kept in, regardless of what Five Eyes Countries we're invested in.

 

[Pip321]

8 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Not at all.  I fully understand. 

Our democratically elected government confiscated your assets.

But that was a very likely move on their part, which is why owning shares based in "enemy territory" is/was daft.  That's the point you're missing.  You should have pulled your money out of there at the first sniff of trouble.

Nah, this is the new virtue signalling type sanctions….it’s for the benefit of a few and it’s corrupt.

This confiscation has taken a new level…maybe a study of history would have told us it was possible but a study of history would have told us a lot of things that 5/7 years ago almost seemed impossible or certainly not an imminent threat.

Germany/Russia collaborating and growing….China/US producing and consuming respectively and interest rates nailed down to the floor. 

The macro guys may have had this nailed on but I didn’t. 

Then covid, Canadian Truckers having bank accounts seized, people prosecuted for words….1984 suddenly became a distinct reality rather than just a daft conspiracy.

I had (indeed I have) Polymetal, a company held on Jersey stock exchange, trading partly in Russia and other countries…..and now untradeable in the UK despite being listed on other stock exchanges . This company is even selling its Russian assets to try regain its value and it will be interesting to see the impact.

I think we are in a new world order where Tik Toc is an issue because it isn’t owned by a US company….in North Yorkshire we have an American Army Base with massive Golf ball listening devices which seem to be increasingly ominous as the US sponsors even more wars. They want it all now….East and West. 

So if we are giving warnings moving forward I would be wary who we trust  

Not long ago withdrawals from SIPPs were heavily restricted….maybe that gets reintroduced. Also an insistence 50% must be held in Green UK ventures to qualify for ongoing tax relief….with a return of 1% growth and inflation at 5%.

I am not predicting rather defending those who did invest….5 years ago Russia was cheap, made real things and looked solid. The risk (to me) was Putin might steal our stuff….I never imagined these soft WEF liberal leaders with smart hair cuts in the West were the enemy of my assets. They were all about Globalisation, maximise your opportunity, democracy and freedom (so I thought) 

So now I am wary…but only because the goalposts never changed but the game has changed. The BRICs know it…and now I know it.

If you knew it 5 years ago then that’s great but now I know no property is safe and even physical gold is only a hedge which may need to be hidden from confiscation for 30 years before we are allowed to use it again.

My worry is ongoing US escalation until possibly billions die. I believe they will stop at nothing to line their pockets even by just another few %.

I don’t disagree where we are….I disagree that we judge anyone to harshly who didn’t see this coming.

[Errol]

Bear in mind that in WW2 the allies didn't seize or sanction German/Nazi reserves.

[Alex]

32 minutes ago, Errol said:

Bear in mind that in WW2 the allies didn't seize or sanction German/Nazi reserves.

Yes. International contract law effectively ended with the western seizure of Russian assets two years ago. A few commentators pointed out at the time how massive this change really was but few seemed to notice. Contract law allowed two countries to trade even if they didn't trust each other. Now that's gone.

[baffledbyzirp]

9 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

It was obvious at the time if you bothered to think. 

Would you have owned German shares once you started hearing tales in the news about that strange little man with a moustache?  Or Russian ones when that bald headed bloke with a beard was on about seizing the means of production?  How about owning a farm in Mr Mugabe's territory in about 1979?

Yes.  They might be examples of foreign governments seizing assets, but there was always a high probability of western governments sanctioning 'the enemy'.* 

Political risk isn't, and never has been, just foreigners.  Ask shareholders in Thames Water in a few weeks' time as that will likely be a similar story (with frills on to make it look less bad).

If you are going to hold assets in non-regime approved assets, then you are going to get burnt.

*See also crypto.  Wait til it gets too big for its boots and watch them shut down the exchanges so you can't get your money out.  BuT BiTcOiN iS mOnEY!  Good.  Tell that to Aldi and Tesco.

Understand the risks to which you allude. However, if we are forced to invest exclusively in vanilla white bread safe stocks further down down the risk curve, investments are limited to the UK, which has terribly low PEs and is a pariah internationally, or the US, which is in a massive bubble where the currency is beginning to look vulnerable.

Re: Russia we have had Georgia, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan and Ukraine already. Who was to know that the US aligned forces would take such drastic steps financially by ignoring international property law and undermining the credibility of the dollar to boot? Rick Rule was a big supporter of Poly as was JP Morgan before the excrement came into contact with the fan. I maintain that Poly was top 10 gold producer with the lowest all in cost of production and access to cheap energy with its main assets outside Russia. Furthermore, it was listed in London and its offices were registered in the Channel Islands and Cyprus. At some point the phoenix will rise again.

The whole sorry saga for me is a reminder that the nefarious PTB don't care about the rule of law, international property rights or their own citizens. They would happily pile us up on a funeral pyre to make a political point, declaiming our enemies through crocodile tears. It is us against them, however the 'them' is the rank of international mid-Atlantic politicians, financiers and faceless bureaucrats who maintain and benefit from the ancient order rather than other nations. 

The incident reminds me of Roosevelt's executive order banning the ownership of bullion leading to confiscation. Immediately thereafter gold was revalued from $20 to $33. Interestingly the architect of the executive order excluded collectable gold and art from the legislation as he was a coin collector himself. This was America's first de facto default followed in 71 by Nixon's closure of the Gold Window. Has anything really changed?

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/07/death-of-north-sea-oil-disaster-for-britain/

They hate us.The Tories will wonder why they are wiped out at the election,yet not once have i seen them argue the reality on anything.I never saw them argue a new tax would kill the industry and cost more.Never saw them argue more bennies means higher inflation and over time more poverty.Never saw them argue that more migrants who then get housing bennies means working young people cant afford their rent or buy.They really have been a disaster of a government.Starting the day Blair was elected between that Labour government and this latest Tory one we have seen around 1400 years of toil,stuggle and sacrifice destroyed.

Talking of oil my olive oil stash at £2.39 a bottle has ran out,its now £5.09 in Lidl ,i bet @Cattle Prod still has big tins of the stuff stored though.

[Calcutta]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/07/death-of-north-sea-oil-disaster-for-britain/

They hate us.The Tories will wonder why they are wiped out at the election,yet not once have i seen them argue the reality on anything.I never saw them argue a new tax would kill the industry and cost more.Never saw them argue more bennies means higher inflation and over time more poverty.Never saw them argue that more migrants who then get housing bennies means working young people cant afford their rent or buy.They really have been a disaster of a government.Starting the day Blair was elected between that Labour government and this latest Tory one we have seen around 1400 years of toil,stuggle and sacrifice destroyed.

Talking of oil my olive oil stash at £2.39 a bottle has ran out,its now £5.09 in Lidl ,i bet @Cattle Prod still has big tins of the stuff stored though.

Lard is still 50p in Aldi. I mean don't try and grate it on a salad but for cooking it's fine.

[Bobthebuilder]

14 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Lard is still 50p in Aldi. I mean don't try and grate it on a salad but for cooking it's fine.

Yep, cook with lard as people have done for a thousand years, before big companies decided we needed something "better" for us. Flour, water, sugar, lard and raisins will make a lovely Dorset lardy cake.

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

we have seen around 1400 years of toil,stuggle and sacrifice destroyed.

This is why I love this thread so much, it became apparent to me early doors down here that the very fabric of our past is being willfully destroyed. It is why I bang on so much about growing potatoes, making cider, pork chops, water mills and so on. The peaceful Dorset valley I spend so much time in is pretty much unchanged in hundreds of years, but even there it is starting to creep in, amazing flood plain rich farmland going over into government funded re-wilding.

I got drawn in here by things you said like comparing the flow of $Dollars to weirs and sluice gates on a river, where people down stream had no water and couldn't grow cabbages, while folk up stream and further down were still in clover. You used to say "what is old becomes new", we are still fighting that war.

[Castlevania]

14 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

I think the 5.0% is gross

you pay the fee outside of this. 0.59% on H&L (plus the £13.95 dealing fee). 
Here are the charges information from H&L: (so effectively 4.41% per annum return). 

Am I correct? 

 

Rewind! Have HL increased their dealing charges? It was £11.95 per trade, no? 

[leonardratso]

Didnt AJ bell(end) just drop it from 9.95 to a crisp great british fiver per trade?

[Cattle Prod]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/07/death-of-north-sea-oil-disaster-for-britain/

They hate us.The Tories will wonder why they are wiped out at the election,yet not once have i seen them argue the reality on anything.I never saw them argue a new tax would kill the industry and cost more.Never saw them argue more bennies means higher inflation and over time more poverty.Never saw them argue that more migrants who then get housing bennies means working young people cant afford their rent or buy.They really have been a disaster of a government.Starting the day Blair was elected between that Labour government and this latest Tory one we have seen around 1400 years of toil,stuggle and sacrifice destroyed.

Talking of oil my olive oil stash at £2.39 a bottle has ran out,its now £5.09 in Lidl ,i bet @Cattle Prod still has big tins of the stuff stored though.

Last one, unfortunately. Now I know why Vito Corleone killed people over the stuff. 
 

Who is Adrian Rogers? Clearly a dosbodder. 

[Funn3r]

15 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That is such an excellent quote, I wish I could spread it far and wide somehow. Maybe try it in my work Outlook signature; although have to hide it inside some "my pronouns are" so that HR don't notice.

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Talking of oil my olive oil stash at £2.39 a bottle has ran out,its now £5.09 in Lidl ,i bet @Cattle Prod

And the rest! Just now bought a bottle in Lidl. A lot of empty spaces on shelves in there today and I had to buy their "Light" versión but it's usually same price.

 

[ashestoashes]

5 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

And the rest! Just now bought a bottle in Lidl. A lot of empty spaces on shelves in there today and I had to buy their "Light" versión but it's usually same price.

 

what's with the wine ? It's only £7 a bottle

[Funn3r]

2 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

what's with the wine ? It's only £7 a bottle

They make us recycle glass. Can't put them in the rubbish. You have to save up the bottles then take them to a recycling point. In my flat I have literally nowhere to save the empties so avoid buying anything glass wherever possible.  Also the recycling skips are always full to overflowing for some reason and I feel bad dumping the bottles in the carpark like everyone does.

[ashestoashes]

24 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

That is such an excellent quote, I wish I could spread it far and wide somehow. Maybe try it in my work Outlook signature; although have to hide it inside some "my pronouns are" so that HR don't notice.

when half your sandwich is stolen by nonworkers before it gets to your mouth, it's time to give up working

[ashestoashes]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

I think he means you have paid £18.99 for it ! Maximum dosbod price is £7.

(Actually 3 bottles of Portuguese Douro is £18 from Morrisons £6 a bottle ! - and I can’t tell the difference between it and a £30 bottle of wine).

 

assumed it was a box of wine

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/07/death-of-north-sea-oil-disaster-for-britain/

They hate us.The Tories will wonder why they are wiped out at the election,yet not once have i seen them argue the reality on anything.I never saw them argue a new tax would kill the industry and cost more.Never saw them argue more bennies means higher inflation and over time more poverty.Never saw them argue that more migrants who then get housing bennies means working young people cant afford their rent or buy.They really have been a disaster of a government.Starting the day Blair was elected between that Labour government and this latest Tory one we have seen around 1400 years of toil,stuggle and sacrifice destroyed.

Talking of oil my olive oil stash at £2.39 a bottle has ran out,its now £5.09 in Lidl ,i bet @Cattle Prod still has big tins of the stuff stored though.

 

43 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Last one, unfortunately. Now I know why Vito Corleone killed people over the stuff. 
 

Who is Adrian Rogers? Clearly a dosbodder. 

I know like to harp on about being a spiritual leftie (to some annoyance on this thread) but what a superb example here of how intertwined and vanilla our politicians and politics are now. 

@DurhamBornstarts with hating this useless government but how it all started with Blair…..yet in theory I (and he) should disagree with a dividing line between Labour and Tory along the way somewhere because he criticised ‘my left’. 

However, I couldn’t agree more. Blair, Brown, May, Boris, Sunak….what does it matter. True capitalism and socialism are dead….just them v us.

Then the superb quote above “when half the fuckers don't work, because they know the other half will take care of them…..and the other half realise what a bunch of lazy cunts the first half were…etc”. (Maybe more poetic than my version😂) 

Makes me believe common sense may prevail at some point…..maybe many people may need to starve to death first. And make no mistake some may work themselves into early graves whilst others get their nails done twice a week because there are some truly selfish people out there. We have trans people fighting in some countries for the right to sex change operations whilst kids die of cancer….truly no conception or empathy.

Them v us. The division has worked and they are picking us off one by one….so best remember all we can do is remember who the true enemy is. 😉

[Errol]

[Castlevania]

53 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

And the rest! Just now bought a bottle in Lidl. A lot of empty spaces on shelves in there today and I had to buy their "Light" versión but it's usually same price.

 

£19 for a bottle of wine! Look at you Mr Moneybags.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Brought to us by first by @Cattle Prodmany moons ago. 

Seems to be a panic building that the widely shared assumption shale oil was going to ride to the rescue may not in fact be the case.

 

 

[belfastchild]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Talking of oil my olive oil stash at £2.39 a bottle has ran out,its now £5.09 in Lidl ,i bet @Cattle Prod still has big tins of the stuff stored though.

Still have 2x4 litres of the stuff in storage. Bought another tray of corned beef tins during the week 47 quid (12 cans). Last tray I bought was 21 quid.

Cook mainly with butter now (or lard as others suggested).

Got a booker voucher for 25 quid off a 100 quid (minus vat I think) spend this week. Havent been in in years so that brought the corned beef down to nearly what I paid in the past. Was very selective to make up the rest with things I normally use that either havent gone up much or are back down to reasonable levels again. I see the cheaper coffee beans are getting harder and harder to find and the ground decaf ones have doubled in price in less than 2 years.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Last one, unfortunately. Now I know why Vito Corleone killed people over the stuff. 
 

Who is Adrian Rogers? Clearly a dosbodder. 

Mate told me last night that him and the wife are now just taking 30k a year out of their salaries as the kids have now got jobs of their own. Everything else goes in to the pension so they are both maxing out the contributions the last year.
They are sick paying tax for fuck all return and watching other people do nothing for it.
They figure 3 more years of that on top of what they have already put in and thats them done. They will be around 55 at that point.
Im 55 later on this year and Ive about 7 close friends all around the same age bracket give or take a few years and by the end of this calendar year only 2 of them will still be working (the ones with younger and teenage kids). I say working as one of my mates who jacked it in 2 weeks ago is now bored of being on 'holiday' and has applied for a summer job in his local garden centre!

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

They make us recycle glass. Can't put them in the rubbish. You have to save up the bottles then take them to a recycling point. In my flat I have literally nowhere to save the empties so avoid buying anything glass wherever possible.  Also the recycling skips are always full to overflowing for some reason and I feel bad dumping the bottles in the carpark like everyone does.

Save up or lift 30 of them. Buy the kit (couple of buckets, sanitiser, bottle brush, bottle filler) and a wine making kit (40-120 quid) and make 30 bottles. Give it a go and see, dont like it, resell kit and bottles to someone else.

[Joncrete Cungle]

6 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Mate told me last night that him and the wife are now just taking 30k a year out of their salaries as the kids have now got jobs of their own. Everything else goes in to the pension so they are both maxing out the contributions the last year.
They are sick paying tax for fuck all return and watching other people do nothing for it.
They figure 3 more years of that on top of what they have already put in and thats them done. They will be around 55 at that point.
Im 55 later on this year and Ive about 7 close friends all around the same age bracket give or take a few years and by the end of this calendar year only 2 of them will still be working (the ones with younger and teenage kids). I say working as one of my mates who jacked it in 2 weeks ago is now bored of being on 'holiday' and has applied for a summer job in his local garden centre!

Save up or lift 30 of them. Buy the kit (couple of buckets, sanitiser, bottle brush, bottle filler) and a wine making kit (40-120 quid) and make 30 bottles. Give it a go and see, dont like it, resell kit and bottles to someone else.

Had a night out with mates last night at our age packing in work isn't feasible, sadly. A lot of them are utterly fed up with PAYE rape every month.

I have never known so many people packing in decently paid PAYE jobs, going self employed and starting their own business. A lot of questions about SIPPS, LISA, ISA & premium bonds. It was an eye opener that a lot of PAYE consumers are fed up and doing something about it.

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Lard is still 50p in Aldi. I mean don't try and grate it on a salad but for cooking it's fine.

I use dripping from our meat for free like my mum did.

Any idea how long you can keep it for?

Edited April 7 by Harley