Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Lightscribe]

Expect a lot more of this.

The UK has delusions of grandeur. It actually thinks these companies should be privileged to list here, so it thinks it can windfall tax accordingly.

BAT was also musing over a US listing last year also. And why not when their share prices could rise substantially.

Take a look at FRES this morning, silver a $ per oz up and a lackluster effort. Different story come 2:30 however when the US markets opens but it just shows how disassociated the UK is.

Reminds me of DBs mentor story of macro reports being left on desks. There’s no analysis abilty left, just passive index number go up.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Libspero said:

Devils advocate..   perhaps they are keeping it in the ground (seabed) exactly because of energy security? 

For the moment the dictators he references are all happily pumping lots of oil.   If that does ever change we may need some of our own reserves available for serious energy shocks in the future.

When they closed our pits thats what an old ex miner said to me.He said its horrible working down there,better we use somebody elses coal,ours can just sit there,we can always get it if we need it later.

Problem though once you lose an industry is you lose all the skills.Doubtful we could ever re-open them.The engineer who started the same day as me at Glaxo was in charge of all the fans in Easington Colliery.He showed me all the maps,huge areas of tunnels nobody went in where he had to service the fans etc.Miles out to sea as well.Lots of them ended up working offshore in oil and gas.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

13 hours ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

I like using goose fat when I remember to buy it

Yep good stuff...my fav is 100% Pure Coconut Oil, can get 500ml jar when its on offer for £3!

With all this talk about hoarding olive oil, though I may as well piss on ya fireworks, this ain't gonna be a popular post, but heyho ya want the truth...

YOU lot are obviously NOT hard-core Dragons Den watchers...years ago they had Michael North on, an expert who runs a fresh seasonal olive oil biz.

He really put that c*** Deborah Meaden in her place, basically the bottom line is this:

"Most olive oil on supermarket shelves are toxically rancid AND even if good expire before their expiry date!"

I looked on YT but could not find the Dragons Den video, found it on dailymotion, (starts 2:32) however the video has been edited cos he SHUTs raging Meaden up, and really lays in with facts that pissed her off!

It was BRILLIANT!

[Libspero]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

When they closed our pits thats what an old ex miner said to me.He said its horrible working down there,better we use somebody elses coal,ours can just sit there,we can always get it if we need it later.

Problem though once you lose an industry is you lose all the skills.Doubtful we could ever re-open them.The engineer who started the same day as me at Glaxo was in charge of all the fans in Easington Colliery.He showed me all the maps,huge areas of tunnels nobody went in where he had to service the fans etc.Miles out to sea as well.Lots of them ended up working offshore in oil and gas.

Perhaps,  though (as the cliché goes) necessity tends to be the mother of invention.

I expect after one or two winters with no heating people would find surprisingly creative ways to extract it again.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Expect a lot more of this.

The UK has delusions of grandeur. It actually thinks these companies should be privileged to list here, so it thinks it can windfall tax accordingly.

BAT was also musing over a US listing last year also. And why not when their share prices could rise substantially.

Take a look at FRES this morning, silver a $ per oz up and a lackluster effort. Different story come 2:30 however when the US markets opens but it just shows how disassociated the UK is.

Reminds me of DBs mentor story of macro reports being left on desks. There’s no analysis abilty left, just passive index number go up.

Welfare again.Most in the UK expect the government through bennies or public sector pensions to look after them,so little equity investment,little capital formation.We are in a terrible place.We had/have world beating baccie,gambling and energy stocks,yet the government hammers them instead of nurture.The UK market is being slowly destroyed,losing companies due to massive under-valuations and that is down again the bennies.Government forcing pensions into gilts instead of equities.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I got rid of a concrete tiled fireplace, some bathroom tiles, and some bricks in a wheely bin once.

When we moved it was plastic sacks only at the new house, but that didn't stop me putting a ancient broken Flymo out in bagged up pieces.

I doff my cap to a double mattress though.

I know of someone who gets rid of asbestos in domestic/business bins. Puts small amounts in black bags and just dumps bits here and there as he's driving around. Got rid of tonnes over the years.

And no, "someone" isn't a euphemism for me 🤨😂

[ThoughtCriminal]

#Winning

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, Libspero said:

Devils advocate..   perhaps they are keeping it in the ground (seabed) exactly because of energy security? 

For the moment the dictators he references are all happily pumping lots of oil.   If that does ever change we may need some of our own reserves available for serious energy shocks in the future.

Turning oil back on isn't as easy as your cold water tap. It would be more like nothing coming out of it for years, when you need it.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Also stealing of the money in the first week undermined its value…I can give it to the little guy for his water, but he knows I can steal it back the next day anyway. 

You've been reading Rousseau, Locke, et al (property rights, social contract, etc) and I claim my £5!

I said what must have been a few years ago now how relevant I was finding that stuff (along with the musings of Adam Smith et al) as once basic tenets get overtly compromised.

Such musings had long been with us but the tectonic shifts arising from the Industrial Revolution gave a particular focus to a stream of discourse in a search to contextualise and digest the new realities.

Are we back here again?  Does anyone see the overiding context explaining today and the painful consequences of refreshing the human equlibrium?

PS:  Hat tip to those setting up the goal and to @Pip321 for putting it in the back of the net!

Edited April 8 by Harley

[Noallegiance]

39 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Turning oil back on isn't as easy as your cold water tap. It would be more like nothing coming out of it for years, when you need it.

I'm hopeful @Cattle Prod will be along soon as I'm pretty sure he said before that once closed up, these wells are done.

Which is nice.

[Axeman123]

10 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

empty it all into the same fucking lorry.

Sorting waste is an enforced act of inconvienient submission IMO, like jews fucking about with seperate tea towels etc.

[Mandalorian]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Think of those Chinese banks and Chinese coal miners churning out divis sending you your capital back during the dollar weakening cycle.Think of how exciting it will be to outperform the S+P.Watching the UK economy collapse into a welfare driven vortex knowing pulp makers in Peru were doing just fine.

You would be like my mate who used to always say "i would never pay for it",100% certain he was,that was until Amsterdam and i sat him down on a bench opposite a window with a beautiful Croatian girl in a silver bikini.Once he broke you could not get him out of those places,he was in love 10 times a day.If we can just get you to into SEDY you will be buying BAT next and asking when the divi is due.Give in.

Kicked the habit.

I had BAT and VOD before.  They went in the bin.

[Onsamui]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Yep good stuff...my fav is 100% Pure Coconut Oil, can get 500ml jar when its on offer for £3!

With all this talk about hoarding olive oil, though I may as well piss on ya fireworks, this ain't gonna be a popular post, but heyho ya want the truth...

YOU lot are obviously NOT hard-core Dragons Den watchers...years ago they had Michael North on, an expert who runs a fresh seasonal olive oil biz.

He really put that c*** Deborah Meaden in her place, basically the bottom line is this:

"Most olive oil on supermarket shelves are toxically rancid AND even if good expire before their expiry date!"

I looked on YT but could not find the Dragons Den video, found it on dailymotion, (starts 2:32) however the video has been edited cos he SHUTs raging Meaden up, and really lays in with facts that pissed her off!

It was BRILLIANT!

We have friends in Turkey who give us the real deal off their olive trees on their land, such a difference.

[Mandalorian]

4 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

The reason I say that the US dollar is starting to show signs of weakness are:

1. USD accounts for a far smaller proportion of world trade than it did 20 years ago

2. $34.6 Trillion acknowledged debt, over $100 Trillion if you take into account unfunded liabilities.

3. Current debt accumulation increasing at approx $1 Trillion every 100 days.

4. Current deficit in excess of $1 Trillion.

5. Cost of servicing current debt interest only in excess of $1 Trillion.

6. BRICS & SCO.

7. Oil transactions being settled in currencies other than the USD, Iran, India and Russia.

8. Strained relations with Saudi which keeps the petrodollar ticking.

9. Sanction on Russia-Iran-Venezuela et al compromising the reserve currency status and legitimacy.

10. The value of gold and bitcoin.

11. Moral decline and industrial sclerosis in what was once a mighty industrial power.

12. The stock market goes up partly as a means to convert funny money into a tangible interest in real businesses per DH.

13. Freezing Russian reserves as they have done previously with Afghanistan, Venezuela, Iraq, and any state that is inimical to US hegemony. In this case it appears they are simply going to steal the deposits which spells doom for the system.

14. Doubling the size of money supply in a 4 year period.

15. US interest rates are at a level that is unsustainable since debt repayments are linked yet they cannot be reduce or their bonds will go unbid.

16. Removal of the debt ceiling.

17. Apparent weakness in the Eurodollar market as EMs seek alternatives.

18. The election cycle which will undoubtedly see recklessness on an epic scale before Trump returns  to the White House like an avenging angel.

19. The rise of India and China as a multi-polar transition is realised.

QED. Take your pick. GLA

 

Most of this is not specific to USD though.  Same for EUR, GBP, etc. They are all at it.

All paper currency eventually falls to its actual vale (zero).

[Cattle Prod]

So silver went nuts in Shanghai today, up over 5% to $30.60 or so equivalent. I've heard things about the population there being encouraged to buy it but who knows really. It'll be interesting to see how Comex responds when it opens, it just can't catch up the arb, which is now steady at $2.75 or so, steady at around 10%. Almost...managed...

Edit: already covered, sorry. I'll leave the chart though, if only for the effort involved in working out the formula 

Edited April 8 by Cattle Prod

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Most of this is not specific to USD though.  Same for EUR, GBP, etc. They are all at it.

All paper currency eventually falls to its actual vale (zero).

I would agree but in an analogue way these reps and the whole fecking dumbed down digital binary feckworld doesn't allow. True, but a matter of degree and that's what really matters in the real world versus it's fake digital parody.

Edited April 8 by Harley

[Cattle Prod]

6 hours ago, Libspero said:

Devils advocate..   perhaps they are keeping it in the ground (seabed) exactly because of energy security? 

For the moment the dictators he references are all happily pumping lots of oil.   If that does ever change we may need some of our own reserves available for serious energy shocks in the future.

Devils advocate is good, but sadly not. Their estimate of the remaining oil is wildly optimistic, and there is nothing remaining big enough for a standalone development. What is left has to be near to existing infrastructure: the economics are totally different if you already have a platform you can drill from, or tie back to. You can make small pools work. Unfortunately that option has been taxed away and the insustry is busy ripping out the infrastructure. Once it's gone, the small pools will never be commercially viable. As I said at the time, rapid decline and shut down. Just wait for the politicans screaming at us for not investing enough, being unpatriotic, etc etc. I'm beginning to think I live in Fraggle Rock.

[Cattle Prod]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Turning oil back on isn't as easy as your cold water tap. It would be more like nothing coming out of it for years, when you need it.

Exactly right. Especially when if you leave the tap off it quickly corrodes, risking an environmental hazard, which means you have to rip the tap out and fill the pipe with cement. 

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So silver went nuts in Shanghai today, up over 5% to $30.60 or so equivalent. I've heard things about the population there being encouraged to buy it but who knows really. It'll be interesting to see how Comex responds when it opens, it just can't catch up the arb, which is now steady at $2.75 or so, steady at around 10%. Almost...managed...

Perhaps the Chinese have decided it's time to expose the USD fiat in the run up to the election, just before the election campaigns start for Trump and Biden?

IN other news, GDXJ is 33% up on my startpoint.  42 is nice.  46 would be better.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, Libspero said:

Perhaps,  though (as the cliché goes) necessity tends to be the mother of invention.

I expect after one or two winters with no heating people would find surprisingly creative ways to extract it again.

All the painful lessons learned by workplace maimings and fatalities would have to be repeated though, as some of those creative solutions would be a deathtrap. Any serious undertaking has an accumulated body of institutional knowledge that can only be gained from accident investigations.

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Welfare again.

AIUI UK has a larger % of individually held wealth held in property than US, and far less in equities.

UK property Dutch disease strikes again.

 

[Libspero]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Devils advocate is good, but sadly not. Their estimate of the remaining oil is wildly optimistic, and there is nothing remaining big enough for a standalone development. What is left has to be near to existing infrastructure: the economics are totally different if you already have a platform you can drill from, or tie back to. You can make small pools work. Unfortunately that option has been taxed away and the insustry is busy ripping out the infrastructure. Once it's gone, the small pools will never be commercially viable. As I said at the time, rapid decline and shut down. Just wait for the politicans screaming at us for not investing enough, being unpatriotic, etc etc.

I guess if the estimates are wrong and there's really not a lot left it doesn't make much difference if we don't extract it now or later .

Would the same apply for our coal reserves ?   IIRC coal was the original source of town gas so in terms of strategic reserves/supplies perhaps equally important ?

 

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm beginning to think I live in Fraggle Rock.

Edited April 8 by Libspero

[JMD]

On 21/03/2024 at 08:06, Harley said:

Tim Price referred to this April 2023 interview from Unherd.  It's about something I've come to a less thoughtful conclusion on.  Talks about the left versus right brain and our collective move more to left brain thinking.  Maybe it helps explain our ills.

I could post this anywhere as it's not just relevant in economics and finance. 

I saw this in my own past work business process re-engineering where we deconstructed systems in belief we could make them better but they rarely ever were.  Their soul, that x factor which made the thing larger than the sum of its parts, was lost.  The response was to double down - just a bit more left brain needed as solutions were sought in change management (the "people") aspects and so forth. 

We also see it in the difference when digitising the analogue.  And economic models treated as a science rather than an art.

Thank you for posting that McGilchrist video Harley. Ive just watched the interview and realise that I have his book so must now get round to actually reading it! It seems that McGilchrist's thesis - or at least his explanation/interpretation of it - has become darker and gloomier from what i remember it, back when i first became aware of it some years back.

I thought it worth mentioning his recent lecture below. For first 18mins it is just a recap of his left/right hemisphere theory, however in the remainder portion he really shows that he 'gets it' - and describes the many awful social and economic consequences of left-brain thinking. 

It's interesting that on this thread we regularly comment that social collapse is inevitable because society no longer posseses the 'human clay' to prevent civil decay from happening. I think McGilchrist's theory might just provide the reasons behind why our human clay has become destroyed, and in the lecture below he hammers home the toxic and degenerative cognitive environment civilisation finds itself in.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 8 by JMD

[Eventually Right]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Perhaps the Chinese have decided it's time to expose the USD fiat in the run up to the election, just before the election campaigns start for Trump and Biden?

IN other news, GDXJ is 33% up on my startpoint.  42 is nice.  46 would be better.

 

[Lightscribe]

No such thing as sectors and cycles, just stick it in a passive 60/40 innit?

[wherebee]

GDXJ to 100USD?

Jesus, I'd cream my pants. That would give me enough profit to buy half a small house in my town.