Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[M S E Refugee]

Gold
	Shanghai 9 Apr 2024	AM	USD 2,390.30

 

Silver

 Shanghai

9 Apr 2024 

USD 31.10

 

Edited April 9 by M S E Refugee

[spygirl]

17 hours ago, spygirl said:

Well, doh .....

JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon has warned that US inflation and interest rates could remain higher than markets expect because of high government spending.

Ditto UK.

Raising IR to take money out of the economy ,mainly via mortgage cost, is dead.

If CBs want to take money out ofthe economy then they need to slash benefits spend.

 

UK retail sales growth picks up as price pressures ease

Data from British Retail Consortium points to signs of recovery for sector ahead of warmer months

[headrow]

Imperial Brands Plc, the maker of John Player Special cigarettes in the UK, said that first-half profit at its tobacco business will be ahead of last year despite increased regulation across the industry. 

Tobacco adjusted operating profit in Europe and the Americas more than offset a weaker performance in its Africa, Asia, Australasia and central and eastern Europe region on a constant currency basis, the company said in a trading update Tuesday. 

Imperial, which owns brands such as Davidoff and Gauloises, said it was on track to meet full-year guidance.

“We have delivered strong pricing, more than offsetting wider industry volume pressures in certain markets,” the company said.

Imperial also said it was on track to buy back as much as £1.1 billion ($1.4 billion) of shares, announced last October.

[Noallegiance]

Every day since last Thurs I've expected a commodities pullback.

It's like an icebreaker right now.

[ThoughtCriminal]

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id advise Sibanye as well,its not as exciting of course,but very well ran and should last long enough for the real bull to kick in.

I have also been buying a tiny gold miner with a a 300 million oz silver prospect at cost of $2.25oz AISC with credits,fully permitted.Now these tend to end up mostly owned by the streamers and little to nothing for shareholders as they borrow with convertibles to build out,or they never get the mine built and end up selling it for next to nothing BUT if silver can keep running and IF they dont scrap the prospect etc then it could be a 5x,10x,20x stock.I will likely put it on the thread later,but i dont like putting these one because the risk is off the scale,a very very good chance it goes to zero and a very good chance people lose money on it.

You should have a separate thread for these widow maker shares.

We could call it the "No cry baby, soy boy whinging cocksuckers allowed" thread.

[Onsamui]

The Next Crisis "Bigger than Covid": Paralysis of Power Supply, Communications, Transportation. The WEF "Cyber Attack" Scenario, "Usher In the Great Reset" - Global ResearchGlobal Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

[Castlevania]

28 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

What’s worked for these last couple of decades will always work. It’s like Bricks and Mortar, just stick it in a passive 60/40 innit.

 

So £100,000 invested in the S&P from 1972 would have a nominal value of £90,000 about 8 years later in 1980.

Inflation over those 8 years in UK 13.5% a year cause it’s purchasing powers to fall by about 70% due to RPI.

Its purchasing power would have lost 70% or so - is that correct - fuck ! ? 

So the original £100,000 invested is now worth the equivalent of 35-40k.

If this happens again cash value will be wiped out.

This is stark when seen like this. 

In real terms Dave Hunter will be right ! 

Could someone confirm my maths - just looking at rough numbers. 

You’d have received dividends and by the end of the decade the dividend yields would have been high.

[Lightscribe]

33 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

What’s worked for these last couple of decades will always work. It’s like Bricks and Mortar, just stick it in a passive 60/40 innit.

 

So £100,000 invested in the S&P from 1972 would have a nominal value of £90,000 about 8 years later in 1980.

Inflation over those 8 years in UK 13.5% a year cause it’s purchasing powers to fall by about 70% due to RPI.

Its purchasing power would have lost 70% or so - is that correct - fuck ! ? 

So the original £100,000 invested is now worth the equivalent of 35-40k.

If this happens again cash value will be wiped out.

This is stark when seen like this. 

In real terms Dave Hunter will be right ! 

Could someone confirm my maths - just looking at rough numbers. 

That’s why it’s called a commodity supercycle.

Only this time in the west we are probably the worst set up for it as we could possibly be.

Hence CBDCs, Digital IDs, consumption and resource control gaslighted under the banner of environmentalism and conservation.

Edited April 9 by Lightscribe

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

UK retail sales growth picks up as price pressures ease

Data from British Retail Consortium points to signs of recovery for sector ahead of warmer months

paging @MrXxxx

anyone moving in @Pip321 ?...hoping for 'em to do what 'NEXT' did back in the 90's

 

 

Edited April 9 by Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
.

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

paging @MrXxxx

anyone moving in @Pip321 ?...hoping for 'em to do what 'NEXT' did back in the 90's

 

 

Superdry is horrid n useless.

 

[Lightscribe]

I know @Democorruptcy has been waiting on tenterhooks for this moment. He gets over excited on my FRES holdings bless him.

But… I’m back in the blue! Yay (I know he’ll be pleased)

 

Edited April 9 by Lightscribe

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I know @Democorruptcy has been waiting on tenterhooks for this moment. He gets over excited on my FRES holdings bless him.

But… I’m back in the blue! Yay (I know he’ll be pleased)

 

[GTM]

4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

paging @MrXxxx

anyone moving in @Pip321 ?...hoping for 'em to do what 'NEXT' did back in the 90's

 

 

You might want to read this before going near Superdry.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/eqs/superdry--sdry/superdry-plc-response-to-announcement-by-ju-/8113400

Barring some miracle there are only 2 realistic outcomes that follow from that RNS for Superdry.

1. Julian Dunkerton dilutes existing shareholders in a blizzard of confetti issuance to himself and shareholders end up owning an infinitesimal amount of a private company.

2. Julian Dunkerton buys the assets from the administrator in a pre-pack and shareholders are wiped out.

There are at least 2 problems with (1). Firstly shareholders have to vote for their own death sentence. They may well vote against in which case they go down route 2 anyway. Secondly with route 1 Superdry can't get rid of various liabilities, like leases on loss making stores, whereas they can with 2.

There is really no option. I expect a pre-pack and shareholder wipe out. The only sensible position is to short Superdry. Nothing is certain in life, but its as close to free money as you'll find. Needless to say I'm short here.

[Harley]

Kuppy: https://pracap.com/on-playing-gold

AMRK up 19% yesterday, the date of the article.  Makes any suggestion possibly pointless for now!

PS:  Too much low information noise so just unsubscribed from loads, including these.

Edited April 9 by Harley

[ThoughtCriminal]

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The silver minnow i have been buying is Bear Creek Mining, i was going to add a few more today but i cannot get the buy orders in nobody will fill them even down to a couple of k so il make do with what i have.Its up a lot from my first buy anyway.

I knew that name rang a bell for some reason. I came across it last year, they have a potentially big project in Peru. The guy was saying there's 35 billion in the ground if it goes to 100 dollar.

Basically he said it's either going to the moon or to the depths of hell. 

Fuck it, I'm in. Let's let this bitch ride, and the chips fall they may.

Dosbodders in 6 months depending on how this goes.

Edited April 9 by ThoughtCriminal

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

UK retail sales growth picks up as price pressures ease

Data from British Retail Consortium points to signs of recovery for sector ahead of warmer months

Bennies and public sector pensions are up 19% in 13 months,and a million migrants ,of course retail sales are up.Is UK oil,energy,metal,commods production up the same or more?.Retail wont show up the systemic collapse,they will go last,once the wealth transfer from workers saved labour and earnings to bennies and retired public sector ends.So far those bennies and public sector have spent over 30% of the entire private sectors lifetime savings.They monetised a third of it already over around 11 years (but the damage breaking though dis-inflation in the last 4 years).At the moment i think they are taking around 6% to 7% of  earnings and savings from the private sector every year,compounding of course.

Bennies and retired coppers saw a 40%+ increase in living standards compared to a private sector workers lifetime pension savings in 3 years .Nothing in the media.

[MrXxxx]

35 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

paging @MrXxxx

anyone moving in @Pip321 ?...hoping for 'em to do what 'NEXT' did back in the 90's

 

 

"When your 'shoeshine boy' [or @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker] starts recommending stocks you know its too late!" :-)))

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I knew that name rang a bell for some reason. I came across it last year, they have a potentially big project in Peru. The guy was saying there's 35 billion in the ground if it goes to 100 dollar.

Basically he said it's either going to the moon or to the depths of hell. 

Fuck it, I'm in. Let's let this bitch ride, and the chops fall they may.

Dosbodders in 6 months depending on how this goes.

I think its got the biggest multi bag potential in the entire space ie 10 bag to 30 bag BUT very very likely to end up worthless.I see it as 3 months BAT divis im prepared to see go to zero.Its also very tricky to buy,your orders just get refused,so in a collapse likely you cant even get out with an 80% loss etc.To get out we will likely need a huge silver miner bull and even then we will be scalped on spreads etc.The only hope for it is its huge silver prospect does not get binned,silver goes to the moon,they get spades in the ground and everyone starts to value it at x amount of reserves on a mine that might be built in 4 years,or might not.The likely result is they go bust and someone else buys the prospect,or streamers end up with all the equity.It makes The Mighty Panther look like a blue chip 

[ThoughtCriminal]

So Bear Creeks market cap is now up to 86 million dollars, so with 350 million Oz in the ground that gives them 10.5 billion at 30 dollar silver price and 35 billion if we hit the fabled 100 dollar mark.

@sancho panza Am I being a simplistic spaz here or do we need your voodoo? 😂

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

So Bear Creeks market cap is now up to 86 million dollars, so with 350 million Oz in the ground that gives them 10.5 billion at 30 dollar silver price and 35 billion if we hit the fabled 100 dollar mark.

@sancho panza Am I being a simplistic spaz here or do we need your voodoo? 😂

I would expect the market in a silver bubble to value companies at about 10% of resources .So if we take $50 silver i would expect them to 17 bag,of course that would be with the mine built and running,they could announce next week they are not building it.At $100 silver IF the mine was built i would think a 30+ bag.However the most likely event is they go to nothing.

[Democorruptcy]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bennies and public sector pensions are up 19% in 13 months,and a million migrants ,of course retail sales are up.Is UK oil,energy,metal,commods production up the same or more?.Retail wont show up the systemic collapse,they will go last,once the wealth transfer from workers saved labour and earnings to bennies and retired public sector ends.So far those bennies and public sector have spent over 30% of the entire private sectors lifetime savings.They monetised a third of it already over around 11 years (but the damage breaking though dis-inflation in the last 4 years).At the moment i think they are taking around 6% to 7% of  earnings and savings from the private sector every year,compounding of course.

Bennies and retired coppers saw a 40%+ increase in living standards compared to a private sector workers lifetime pension savings in 3 years .Nothing in the media.

A bit about council fat cats today

[Chewing Grass]

Was talking to the chap I know who runs the local chippy, he was saying that the other local Takeaways are starting to struggle, the Pizza place next door has started doing English Breakfasts and Burgers to compensate for falling trade.

Pancake place just opened over the  road has no customers, Indian has shut, Chinese is quieter, his place also hardly ever has a queue now.

[goldbug9999]

On 07/04/2024 at 18:02, Pip321 said:

Yep, fat, meat, milk, oats, berries, fruit and veg.

Eggs - another supposedly "unhealthy" food.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 hours ago, roundhouse said:

Report them. No one should have asbestosis forced on them by that selfish moron.

No way of proving it. The HSE and environment agency don't even have the staff to investigate huge, serious breaches these days, let alone a guy dumping bin bags randomly. 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Was talking to the chap I know who runs the local chippy, he was saying that the other local Takeaways are starting to struggle, the Pizza place next door has started doing English Breakfasts and Burgers to compensate for falling trade.

Pancake place just opened over the  road has no customers, Indian has shut, Chinese is quieter, his place also hardly ever has a queue now.

Was talking to a mate yesterday who installs central heating, he said no one is getting back to him on quotes, hes started looking for work with the bigger companies. Pretty shitty out there apparently.