Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Hardhat]

2 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Seems to have been a blinding success.

Also I believe the above may me a file photo, some media is saying that Xi was too busy to meet yellen so sent a minister.

 

 

Fine but where's the analysis. Brazil have had a bumper corn harvest in 23/24 and have exported approx 15 million ton of corn to China in 23/24, with a corresponding drop in US exports. This is the first time this has happened, facilitated by a new trade deal between Brazil and China (playing into the BRICs thesis). However for the last four years US exported 5-10m ton every year to China. They also had a bumper corn crop in 23/24 so competitive on price on the world market, much of which was sold to Mexico (an easier market to access as it has road / rail links).

Brazil won't have a bumper harvest every year, so they won't always be price competitive with US on export. I can't find any data on where Brazil used to send their corn before the China trade deal, but imagine that those countries are likely taking US corn now.

Whether it's political or driven by price is up for debate.

500k tons is approx 7 container ships FYI, or 5600 train carts.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-farm-exports-hit-three-year-low-2023-china-slows-buying-braun-2024-02-08/

[sancho panza]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You can sell gilts,but the problem is as you mention they need higher coupons,and the more going into gilts means funding bennies/consumption and less available to the private sector to invest to get on top of this inflation.The long dis-inflation cycle meant polos thought they could monetise welfare and pensions etc forever without worry,but now they are finding out you cannot.The EMs have had enough of us consuming their production and getting paper and blokes wearing dresses in return.The EMs wont cut us off,they still need the western consumer,but they will expect higher payments for their goods.PMs might be running as the market is smelling this.Here in the UK the parasite class has been consuming huge amounts of saved labour.Its incredible how government has said take 50% of his lifetimes savings and give it to that retired copper and fat woman with 3 kids from Sudan on bennies,but that is what they have done,and thats just so far.

Nicely put

It is incredible when you look at what the polos have been paying out in bennies.SImply incredible.I was talking to a teacher last night and they were saying some of the schools in worse areas are sending people round to hosues to pick kids up to tkae them to school.

I expereinced this lately when dealing with someone who had got themselves up on the marching powder,then tried to bring themselves down with brandy,and then found themselves incapable of sending the kid to school.So school picked up kid.

Teacher told me the schools get marked down if they dont get kids in......I feel for the kids,what cjance have they got.

The problem is that , as @Majorpain so beautfiully puts it above,labour are going to turn abject defeat into total surrender ie you think thigns an't get worse then find out they can.

then I suspect the bennies will stop getting paid out like they are but for some people it will be too late to learn to work.

 

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

I reflected in my pussy weak approach to buying and wish I had gone deeper and longer. (😉) 

Now I am ok with commodities because I still believe DH (mystic Dave) is right and we will get another big big chance to buy. But it’s those pesky precious metals that are the issue. I think $1800 an ounce for gold is a memory.

So still swimming in the shallow end…..messing about with some light trades but heavily in cash overall 

My GJGB and Blackrock gold are up 35/30% respectively and I do hold them….but wish I had more. . 

So instead I am holding all the PM miners absolutely regardless of increases in the hope they either double (in which case they reach my preferred allocation themselves) or they collapse (in which case I buy much much more). 

Of course it they rocket to the moon and gold hits $20k an ounce I may review my adamant position to not sell 😂😂

ps….to all, could you stop buying Sibayne, Abdn, Ashmore etc…..let it drop a bit so I can get some, that would be great 😉

 

this is obviously heavily dyor,but newmont remains a buy here imho.I have been sellign telecoms andn my fall abck position is to buy more NEM if I can't 'spray n pray ' some value elsehwere in the sector.

decl:we have a circa $44, 5% postion in NEM.2% postion in fres @ £5.20 ,5% positon in barrick at $17.plus otehrs but those appear to be around buy levels from years back.and they're easy holds imho ie wont be apearing on @Loki widow maker thread

here's a chart from the march 2020 lows and you can see there's stilla few under their level from that low.

 

and also screenshot from sept 2018 low

Edited April 10 by sancho panza

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

I am a political nomad with no home anymore. I describe the position as follows to any daft bastard in the real world stupid enough to ask me

The Tories have taken us the the edge of Niagara falls in a canoe and we can’t get out of the stream and we will (at some point) fall over the edge.

And if labour get in they will turn the canoe nose first into the direction of the fall and we will go straight over. 

The bus is already going over the cliff….it’s doesn’t matter anymore who is driving

The only difference between the world financial situation and the picture below…is the guy in the picture will survive cos he is prepared and has a helmet on🛶

 

 

Wellcome aboard Pip ('Philip Pirrip'!?), most of us on the thread have made a similar disorientating and dispiriting Dickensian journey...  with our politico-economic outlooks changing from hopeful Great Expectations to grim Hard Times!!

Edited April 10 by JMD

[sancho panza]

sh1t times maturing ready for zanu labour to tkae over from zanu tory

I was saying to mrs P last night,that Im so glad she didnt make me pour our savigns into property instead allowing them to flower into a nice income via this thread and the hive mind.

the freedom having some savings gives you is a blessing.

the next few years is going to be crap watching the british people suffer for the folly of their political elite.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/7-4m-people-struggling-bills-230100642.html

7.4m people struggling with bills and credit repayments in January 2024 – FCA

More than seven million people across the UK were estimated to be struggling with bills and credit repayments in January, according to the City regulator.

Renters, single adults with children, adults from a minority ethnic background and people living in the north east of England were particularly likely to be in financial difficulty, the research indicates.

Unemployed adults and others not in work such as the long-term sick and full-time carers were also more likely to be struggling financially compared with the UK average.

 

Across the research, one in seven (14% or an estimated 7.4 million people across the UK) adults felt heavily burdened keeping up with domestic bills and credit commitments at the start of 2024 – an improvement from the one in five (21% or an estimated 10.9 million people) who felt this way in January 2023.

This is still higher than the 5.8 million people (11%) who were struggling in February 2020, before the cost-of-living squeeze started.

Following similar trends seen previously, utility bills were the most commonly missed bills over the six months to January 2024, followed by credit card bills and council tax.

Renters, 62% of whom had seen rent increases in the previous 12 months, were among those most likely to report not coping financially or finding it difficult to cope in January, with half (50%) in this position.

The report quoted one unemployed female renter saying: “It’s truly awful. Most days I’m stuck deciding if I’m going to starve or be cold. We worry about what bill is coming around the corner… We survive because of the kindness of others – charity and family.”

One in nine (11% or an estimated 5.9 million adults across the UK) had no disposable income in January, which was an improvement from 15%, or an estimated 7.7 million adults in January 2023.

Around 5.5 million people (11% of those surveyed) are estimated to have fallen behind or missed paying one or more household bills or credit commitments in the six months from January 2024. This is down from an estimated 6.6 million people (12%) a year earlier.

The proportion of renters (26%) falling behind on, or missing paying, one or more of their domestic bills or credit commitments in the previous six months was more than double the UK average of 11%.

The report added: “Yet just 7% of renters had missed a rent payment in this period, highlighting how many prioritised paying their rent over other bills.”

Mortgage holders were slightly less likely than the average to be struggling in January, with 24% not coping financially or finding it difficult to cope, versus 28% of UK adults generally.

One in 20 (5%) mortgage holders had missed paying domestic bills or credit commitments in the previous six months.

More than a third (36%) of mortgage holders had seen their mortgage payments increase in the previous 12 months.

Some 1.7% had missed a mortgage payment in the previous six months, which was slightly up from the 1.1% who had missed a payment in the six months to January 2023.

A male mortgage holder was quoted saying: “Our savings have been decimated keeping up with costs.”

Another male mortgage holder said: “Food has doubled, the mortgage is up 400%, gas and electricity is up 200%. It now costs more to live than the income we get.”

 

There were also signs of financial struggles affecting mental wellbeing.

In the 12 months to January, due to the rising cost of living, 43% (or around 22.7 million) of adults suffered anxiety or stress.

Also in the year to January, most people (77% or an estimated 40.5 million) spent less or worked more to make ends meet.

Over the same period, the regulator estimates 2.7 million adults (5%) with financial difficulties sought help from a lender, debt adviser or charity.

Nearly half (47% or an estimated 1.2 million people) of those who sought help reported being in a better position as a result.

But around two-fifths (40%) of adults who had fallen behind on their bills had avoided talking to their lender about their finances.

[sancho panza]

tip of the iceberg methinks

@ThoughtCriminal #institutionaldecay

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/10/bulgarian-gang-benefit-fraud-biggest-britain-50-million/

Bulgarians pocket £50m from taxpayer in Britain’s biggest benefits fraud

Five Bulgarian nationals plead guilty to falsely claiming Universal Credit over five years and storing wads of cash in ‘fraud factories’

A gang has been convicted of Britain’s largest benefit fraud, costing the taxpayer more than £50 million.

Bulgarian nationals, Galina Nikolova, 38, Stoyan Stoyanov, 27, Tsvetka Todorova, 52, Gyunesh Ali, 33, and Patritsia Paneva, 26, pleaded guilty to fraud and money laundering for their involvement in a multi-million-pound scam on the benefit system.

The five members of an organised criminal gang falsely claimed more than £50 million in Universal Credit. Over a four-and-a-half-year period, between October 2016 and May 2021, the group made thousands of false claims for Universal Credit using either real people or hijacked identities, Wood Green Crown Court heard.

These claims were supported by an array of forged documents, including fictitious tenancy agreements, counterfeit payslips, and forged letters from landlords, employers and GPs. If the claims were rejected, the fraudsters would try again until they were granted.

The investigation identified three “benefit factories” in London from which repeated false claims for benefits originated.

Alongside fraudulent claims from fake IDs, the businesses claimed they could assist people with obtaining a National Insurance number and benefits to which they were entitled.

However, it was found that once the benefits claim was made, the money that followed was left in the hands of the organised crime group.

The money gained from these fraudulent claims was then laundered and withdrawn in cash, the court heard.

The defendants were first arrested on May 5 2021 and several properties were searched.

During these searches, hundreds of “claim packs” containing forged and false documents were found and seized, as well as bundles of cash stuffed in shopping bags and suitcases, a high-end car and designer goods including watches, jackets and glasses.

Following his release under investigation, one of the five defendants, Ali, fled the country to Bulgaria but he was extradited back to the UK on Feb 25 2023 to face justice.

When faced with the large amount of incriminating evidence which included encrypted messages, CCTV footage, forged documents, seized digital devices and bank statements, the defendants eventually all pleaded guilty.

Last month it was revealed that Universal Credit has cost taxpayers £11 billion in fraud in the past two years.

Losses – which are predominantly caused by fraud and error – were last year still above pre-pandemic levels at £5.5 billion, according to the National Audit Office (NAO).

Edited April 10 by sancho panza

[Sasquatch]

10 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Yep - me too. I have offloaded VOD, and VERIZON as they were tying up quite a bit of capital and not really going anywhere. The dividends had insulated any significant losses.  

Much more of a substantial position in EMs and commodities now.

 Did the opposite yesterday and bought some more VOD! We have such a large EM/PM/Oil holding that I thought I ought to balance things up a bit.

Therefore I am the contrarians contrarian (at least for this week)

We've just loaded up our isas (x2) and sipps (x 2) so a lot of head scratching about where to and what to invest in.

Also bought a load of old silver coins way below scrap value this week. Gonna need a bigger boat safe.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

She has left for 2 months,gone to Singapore (where she is from,Chinese heritage).Shes coming back end of May.She was coming back to ours but my lass refused to keep the room open for two months for her,i said we should do bathroom/boiler while she is gone and keep room for her,my lass said you have never said that for the wet weekend blokes we usually get   .All that is left is her size 6 Mcdonalds uniform.

Your partner's read the comments you posted about her, doesn't even need to have an account or log in to do it. Massages could be the next bone.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

There is no consideration at all that maybe the govt are over spending or mis-spending enormous amounts, all they're doing is looking for ways to get their hands on yet more loot that they can waste.

Yes. Government expenditure is out of control. £5 billion from tax avoidance measures won’t touch the sides of a dysfunctional NHS budget (currently at £137 billion).

[JMD]

On 08/04/2024 at 16:34, Lightscribe said:

Fear not… the roar continues 🐈‍⬛ 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/silver-tiger-metals-inc-npv

 

 

Vizsla Silver is high on that list, it looks like it's an explorer but Don Durret is still saying it's low risk.

I can't recall it being mentioned on here before? Does anyone know about this company - not asking for investment advice, but am wondering if this junior silver miner has maybe slipped through the threads 'opportunity net'?

Edited April 10 by JMD

[GTM]

2 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Is there a thread already about Labour's announcement about cracking down on (legal) tax avoidance? 

Wtf.  

 

 

We're going well beyond sinister now. Particularly the way she presumes to speak for the nation. "The nation's priorities". Well assuming I still have a voice before she and her ilk throw me in the gulag, then my priorities would be to stop these cunts stealing so much of my fucking money.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

...when Rishi/Hunt hand them the lit ticking timebomb that is the UK economy its going to rabbit in headlights time for the entire party.

Do time bombs need lighting?

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Anyone got any thoughts on the asset managers ABrDN and MnG? (Ex-dividend date today). 

Dividends have been coming in at 8-10% so have been pretty good over the last few years. I have also managed to buy the dips averaging in on these -  given the dividends I am doing ok. But not stellar.

They have taken a fair whack over the last few months. Is it the impact of passive ETFs and loss of management fees? M&G doing better.

I feel holding them is quite high risk given that we may get a global bust within 12-18 months? COVID crash absolutely smashed them -50% to -60%. We’d get the same in a crash/bust even from lower points now.

I know M&G and Abrdn have been @DurhamBorn favourites. I am not sure I want to be holding long term? 
 

Interesting 5 year charts. 
 

 

MNG doing much better than ABrDN

 

Thoughts? 

Look at that rally at the start of 2020!

[belfastchild]

On the subject of tax or not, just filed my return for last year.
Got it down to low 3 figures so not quite down to zero or two figures yet, must try harder next year.
Wondered how they were going to do the class 2 thing but it said online that they had paid the class 2 for me so now I have full state pension entitlement years. Will wait to see what my account updates with before breaking out the bubbly on that one.

[Noallegiance]

Don't panic everyone.

Our leaders and media class have the important issues of the day well in hand with this leading headline today:

[leonardratso]

watch it with those divis.
Its just like you moving £10 from your left pocket to your right pocket.

[leonardratso]

new tax year, new big bets for me;

[Heart's Ease]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

Vizsla Silver is high on that list, it looks like it's an explorer but Don Durret is still saying it's low risk.

I can't recall it being mentioned on here before? Does anyone know about this company - not asking for investment advice, but am wondering if this junior silver miner has maybe slipped through the threads 'opportunity net'?

 

Rick Rule discusses briefly here. Timestamped helpfully. 18:14.

Well worth a listen all through.

Tldr dyor on vizsla - highly speculative, RR fairly large position, likes the grade, likes the size, doesn't like the neighbourhood, great management.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Your partner's read the comments you posted about her, doesn't even need to have an account or log in to do it. Massages could be the next bone.

Nah she used it to get me to do all the repairs over there "fix that wardrobe you can enjoy the short show",,,she just laughs and knows what im like,she just didnt want to lose two months rent as "its less for my SIPP" 

[DurhamBorn]

50 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Anyone got any thoughts on the asset managers ABrDN and MnG? (Ex-dividend date today). 

Dividends have been coming in at 8-10% so have been pretty good over the last few years. I have also managed to buy the dips averaging in on these -  given the dividends I am doing ok. But not stellar.

ABrDN has taken a fair whack over the last few years - peaking in early 2021 @320p or so. I have been buying the dips around 140p- 185p.
Is it the impact of passive ETFs and loss of management fees? M&G doing better.

I feel holding them is quite high risk given that we may get a global bust within 12-18 months? COVID crash absolutely smashed them -50% to -60%. We’d get the same in a crash/bust even from lower points now.

I know M&G and Abrdn have been @DurhamBorn favourites. I am not sure I want to be holding long term? 
 

Interesting 5 year charts. 
 

 

MNG doing much better than ABrDN

 

Thoughts? 

M&G has the best return on capital of any company in the FTSE,its a bargain BUT i sold all of mine.Why?,because im very worried there is a more than small chance gilts collapse,and that would blow up their balance sheet.Now the same thing would blow up BTs pensions scheme,BUT BT could cover its pensions from free cash if needed,just,M&G would go to zero.Its a small chance,but its not one i like given the state of the UK bennies and freebies.Gilts are exposed too much.

ABRDN does not have the same exposure (some,but much smaller) and have big EM exposure.So M&G is the better company,yet i own the other.

[wherebee]

Well, taken a jump to sell some of the GDXJ to lock in a nice USD profit.

Yes, I agree gold is going much higher in time, but I have made good capital gains trading in and out of GDXJ and I think there will be one more smash down on paper gold price.

The 3kUSD profit I from this tranche can go into either cheaper miners in that dip, or IMP for divvies.

[DurhamBorn]

I should add i think M&G and ABRDN should merge.They both have very good IFA/wealth sides with platforms and could  merge them to then take the market (St James Place etc are shit and exposed).They could merge the investment sides for coast savings,keep II as the retail platform and the insurance/annuity/endowment side of M&G they could maybe merge off to Phoenix ,or float it as a different company to shareholders and simply let it run off returning all spare free cash to shareholder.(then if gilts did blow up at least it would not take the whole company down and shareholders would of extracted a lot already)

[sleepwello'nights]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

tip of the iceberg methinks

@ThoughtCriminal #institutionaldecay

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/10/bulgarian-gang-benefit-fraud-biggest-britain-50-million/

 

Presumably they will get custodial sentences. When they are released they will have no income and so will be able to claim benefits legitimately.

Will they be deported on release?

[Loki]

USD Core CPI m/m 0.4%    

USD CPI m/m 0.4%

USD CPI y/y 3.5% 

[Calcutta]

Saw on Bloomberg this morning some coked up funboys saying the UK could cut interest rates before the US.

Now, I understand these boys are either clueless or talking their book, but it got me thinking that it's mean Sterling getting a proper kicking? Parity has been on the cards for a long time and the stupid cunts might just go for it.

[Axeman123]

Racheal Reeves tax avoidance plans analysed:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2024/04/will-rachel-reeves-plan-to-take-on-the-tax-dodgers-work

It looks like she is hinting it will be corporates that are targetted, eg:

Quote

Labour’s policy paper says the plan will involve “focusing additional resource on segments with the greatest complexity and return”, a sentence that is easily wandered past. It’s important, however, because it tells us from whom the billions will be extracted.

“Return” here means the tax you get back from £1 invested in spotting and stopping tax dodges. In tax talk this is known as “compliance yield”, and it varies by an order of magnitude depending on whom you investigate.Research by the independent think tank Taxwatch shows that £1 spent on compliance in 2021-22 (the latest figures published by HMRC) returned £6.60 when it was targeted at individuals, but it returned £11.40 when targeted at wealthy individuals and £39.20 when it addressed large businesses.

It’s important that HMRC prosecutes some individuals and small businesses to deter them from tax shenanigans, but investigating and challenging the tax paid (or rather, not paid) by big multinationals is about six times as lucrative.

...and suddenly this recent headline takes on a new light:

Former Shell chief stokes London listing departure fears

https://www.cityam.com/former-shell-chief-stokes-london-listing-departure-fears/

Putting it all together I expect Labour will try and tax worldwide profits of UK listed companies, and then allow a credit for taxes actually paid elsewhere - rendering off-shore shenanigans moot. No wonder firms are hinting they may relocate!

The plus side from the first article is that allegedly Labour aren't going to muck about with the tax system itself - although I will beleive that when I see it!