Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Pip321]

21 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Why not the 5.0% CSH2 in your S&S ISA at 4.4% net (after charges etc)  tax free too? Looks fairly reliable over a year and 5 years / 10 years etc. instantly accessible 

Dealing costs very reasonable .

 

Is it fixed? 😉😂

Got loads of fixed rolling off and want to secure some rates for next 12 months to contra my beautiful tax efficient debt. As the stuff rolls off I will be looking at other options too....but at moment just trying to quickly shelter £40k this week. 

Most of my variable is in the Pru Pension cash pot earning 5.17% (less product cost 0.125%), so 5.045% tax free. That's the stuff waiting for the dip. 

[Long time lurking]

Significant IMO 

 

[sancho panza]

have had the following from Barclaycard

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

have had the following from Barclaycard

 

 

It's only an extra £0.58p per month, relax.

[Cattle Prod]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The overton window is shifting, and thread talking points are being laundered via International Organisations so they can enter the input for national policy making. The ship is starting to turn, although almost certainly too late to make a difference

Slash benefits to get more men into work, IMF urges

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/slash-benefits-more-men-imf-120000618.html

Another "no shit Sherlock" headline:

Germany will never fully recover from energy crisis, warns power chief

The game theory explanation for actually coming out and saying this IMO is they are pleading with the US to take its boot off their throat regarding nat gas.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-never-fully-recover-energy-103041434.html

Speaking of which, do you remember I used to say how Russia supplied gas under the iron curtain to a cold Europe when they had 50,000 nukes pointed at each other? Why didn’t they just shut it off and destroy Europe that way?!

And so it goes. 

Telegraph, all you have to do for the scoop of the year is answer this question: 

“Why do the Ukrainians not blow up the pipelines going through their land which supply hard(ish) currency to Putin to build a war economy?”

It would cost a few hundred quid, you could probably take one out with an NLAW. 

Why…?

Again this information is in the public domain, I just pulled it off Twitter. No one talks about it. Another signal in the noise and everyone misses it. Get on with it, journos I’m tired of spoon feeding you

[Cattle Prod]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

Fascinating to see how the FTSE Gold / Silver / PMs have responded to the higher than expected US inflation data.

I was in the gym - and watching Sibanye fall 7% on opening - and PM and commodity ‘plays‘ take a sizeable hit’(@Pip321 did you get in?) as soon the US market opened. FTSE dropped over a 1% giving up all its gains and going negative.

I know it’s short term but this is where we are an hour later .

Gold rises

 

FTSE up again from -0.20 back to + 0.40%

Sibanye up 4-5% from its -7% opening dip. (Still slightly negative -1%).

It’s as if the market has just shrugged it off. 

Maybe they also believe IR cut in May / June still no matter what @DurhamBorn? 
 

 

It’s screamingly obvious that gold is no longer correlated to rates as we’ve discussed here, as Asia is hoovering up the physical (traditionally Asia sells at high prices and gold flows West, not any more). Western financial markets are still trading the gold/rates correlation, they expect it to fall to $1500 “where it should be”. Good look with that, funboys

[Cattle Prod]

53 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

 

 

 

Energy as the true reserve currency and CB is straight out of here. How about a free sub Kuppy we like your stuff too 👍🏻

[Sasquatch]

It's some time since I shared a photo of some lovely silver coins. Very pertinent for this thread, given the recent PM price action.

Quite a mixed bag, all bought way below scrap price. Enjoy!

 

[HousePriceMania]

29 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

It's some time since I shared a photo of some lovely silver coins. Very pertinent for this thread, given the recent PM price action.

Quite a mixed bag, all bought way below scrap price. Enjoy!

 

My collection of Silver Brits is well above the VAT paid price.

My gold though, some more than doubled, most expensive coins I bought now up 20 to 30%.

Will hold till the bitter end.

P.S. this year I've been buying GDXJ and GDX instead of physical coins, would be interested on peoples thoughts on that.

 

Edited April 10 by HousePriceMania

[leonardratso]

your stashes are shite compared to mine;

love. stueyxxx.

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

your stashes are shite compared to mine;

love. stueyxxx.

You're not wrong !!!

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Speaking of which, do you remember I used to say how Russia supplied gas under the iron curtain to a cold Europe when they had 50,000 nukes pointed at each other? Why didn’t they just shut it off and destroy Europe that way?!

And so it goes. 

Telegraph, all you have to do for the scoop of the year is answer this question: 

“Why do the Ukrainians not blow up the pipelines going through their land which supply hard(ish) currency to Putin to build a war economy?”

It would cost a few hundred quid, you could probably take one out with an NLAW. 

Why…?

Again this information is in the public domain, I just pulled it off Twitter. No one talks about it. Another signal in the noise and everyone misses it. Get on with it, journos I’m tired of spoon feeding you

That has been known for two years ,the answer is simple they need the gas they need the money and "they" are both Europe and the Ukraine 

Then Russia could simply turn of the compressors it`s the same for the oil flowing through the Ukraine to Europe and the Oil flowing to Japan via pipe lines which were never sanctioned  

[Red Debt Redemption]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

have had the following from Barclaycard

 

 

Noticed balance transfer offers have stopped got offer messages Jan, Feb, Mar to nothing available when actively clicking to see what they are offering. Don't know if significant or related but will keep an eye on it.

[Cattle Prod]

My take is that this bond rout will make the treasury market dysfunctional again and the fed/Yellen will step in with “not not QE”. They have around $1,3 trillion liquidity sitting in the reverse repo and the treasury general account which is enough liquidity to get to the election. 
 

Top 2 things on my watchlist, nothing matters more than liquidity at this late stage. And whatever they come up with, gold sniffed it out 2 months ago, meaning most people will have missed it. 

I didn’t miss it as I’ve been balls deep and fully allocated for about 2 years and took 5 major beatings during that time. No selling. Fuck you, assholes! 

Edit - assholes being the powers that be and the financial organisations who have been slapping gold around like a ginger stepchild. Might get a few more slaps in, but that child is about to head up to the bell tower with a sniper rifle 

Edited April 10 by Cattle Prod

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

My take is that this bond rout will make the treasury market dysfunctional again and the fed/Yellen will step in with “not not QE”. They have around $1,3 trillion liquidity sitting in the reverse repo and the treasury general account which is enough liquidity to get to the election. 
 

Top 2 things on my watchlist, nothing matters more than liquidity at this late stage. And whatever they come up with, gold sniffed it out 2 months ago, meaning most people will have missed it. 

I didn’t miss it as I’ve been balls deep and fully allocated for about 2 years and took 5 major beatings during that time. No selling. Fuck you, assholes! 

That repo is supposed to drain (into M3) as banks lend into the economy hence why the Fed need to cut rates to kick in demand for credit,but they are trapped due to inflation due to government consumption spending.If they dont cut i think the US financial system will collapse,the BK,if they cut into inflation there will be a rush to real assets.I think gold is sniffing its going to be the second choice as if it was the first i wouldnt expect silver to be running as hard.Funny at the open seeing the market sell inflation assets.There is going to be a bubble i think im the metals and EMs (and deficit runs in oil and industrial metals),we are only in the foothills so far,the sunlit uplands await.

[Long time lurking]

12 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

My take is that this bond rout will make the treasury market dysfunctional again and the fed/Yellen will step in with “not not QE”. They have around $1,3 trillion liquidity sitting in the reverse repo and the treasury general account which is enough liquidity to get to the election. 
 

Top 2 things on my watchlist, nothing matters more than liquidity at this late stage. And whatever they come up with, gold sniffed it out 2 months ago, meaning most people will have missed it. 

I didn’t miss it as I’ve been balls deep and fully allocated for about 2 years and took 5 major beatings during that time. No selling. Fuck you, assholes! 

Edit - assholes being the powers that be and the financial organisations who have been slapping gold around like a ginger stepchild. Might get a few more slaps in, but that child is about to head up to the bell tower with a sniper rifle 

How much of the stock market (s) is owned directly by the FED /BOE/ECB/BOJ etc

Hows $200 oil doing ?   

Edited April 10 by Long time lurking

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

if they cut into inflation there will be a rush to real assets.

You need to factor in the real world too.

If they cut going into inflation there will be a lot of poor hungry angry American gun owners floating about, I'd image people are fucking angry anyway but going hungry might just tip them into action.

The Establishment are cunts for sure but I think they are cunts that value their own necks and the status quo.  The British Establishment are masters at maintaining their position, you think they'll choose hungry angry people ?

I dont know about the U.S. but the EU and UK bankers are primed for haircuts, so I guess I am saying, welcome to the Big Kahuna, bank bail-ins are coming, I reckon that's been their plan all along.

I'm always wrong though so prime for rate cuts.

 

[Mandalorian]

20 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Neither just my gut / common sense - market cap / related to PE profit / revenue etc

What’s TA? 

Makes astrology, reading entrails and tea leaves look good.

'It's got a reverse cup and handle formation with a rising star with a concave pennant, so it's going to go up 37%'

What a load of old shit!

[Long time lurking]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That repo is supposed to drain (into M3) as banks lend into the economy hence why the Fed need to cut rates to kick in demand for credit,but they are trapped due to inflation due to government consumption spending.If they dont cut i think the US financial system will collapse,the BK,if they cut into inflation there will be a rush to real assets.I think gold is sniffing its going to be the second choice as if it was the first i wouldnt expect silver to be running as hard.Funny at the open seeing the market sell inflation assets.There is going to be a bubble i think im the metals and EMs (and deficit runs in oil and industrial metals),we are only in the foothills so far,the sunlit uplands await.

It`s the only way the debt can be sustained #1970`s 

Edited April 10 by Long time lurking

[Red Debt Redemption]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

You need to factor in the real world too.

If they cut going into inflation there will be a lot of poor hungry angry American gun owners floating about, I'd image people are fucking angry anyway but going hungry might just tip them into action.

The Establishment are cunts for sure but I think they are cunts that value their own necks and the status quo.  The British Establishment are masters at maintaining their position, you think they'll choose hungry angry people ?

I dont know about the U.S. but the EU and UK bankers are primed for haircuts, so I guess I am saying, welcome to the Big Kahuna, bank bail-ins are coming, I reckon that's been their plan all along.

I'm always wrong though so prime for rate cuts.

 

No chance I remember folk saying there would be blood on the streets if inflation ran wild 2017 people wouldn't stand for it they sez.

Nothing and I mean nothing happened when it did hit, zero uproar, bit of moaning on bookface.

[Mandalorian]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Nicely put

It is incredible when you look at what the polos have been paying out in bennies.SImply incredible.I was talking to a teacher last night and they were saying some of the schools in worse areas are sending people round to hosues to pick kids up to tkae them to school.

I expereinced this lately when dealing with someone who had got themselves up on the marching powder,then tried to bring themselves down with brandy,and then found themselves incapable of sending the kid to school.So school picked up kid.

Teacher told me the schools get marked down if they dont get kids in......I feel for the kids,what cjance have they got.

The problem is that , as @Majorpain so beautfiully puts it above,labour are going to turn abject defeat into total surrender ie you think thigns an't get worse then find out they can.

then I suspect the bennies will stop getting paid out like they are but for some people it will be too late to learn to work.

 

 

Don't be daft.  They'll seize all your investments before they stop paying the indolent.

[Funn3r]

5 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Nothing and I mean nothing happened when it did hit, zero uproar, bit of moaning on bookface.

Prices going up = moaning

Prices going up and can't afford food, fuel = definite chance of people taking action

So there must be a magic level above which it will be dodgy times

[Long time lurking]

15 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

No chance I remember folk saying there would be blood on the streets if inflation ran wild 2017 people wouldn't stand for it they sez.

Nothing and I mean nothing happened when it did hit, zero uproar, bit of moaning on bookface.

Look back to the 1970`s ,it`s the same shit all over again but this time wages are lagging but it will have the same effect of decimating industries , it will be the USA that suffers the most ,we dealt with the worst of it years ago wait until the USA are paying the same as the UK and Europe for energy ,and the global price don`t need to rise for that to happen ,the taxes in the USA have a long long way to go to match that of Europe and the USA desperately needs those tax$

 

Edited April 10 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

Prices going up and can't afford food, fuel = definite chance of people taking action

And that action will be what ? 

Striking for higher wages,this is the game being played  

[Lightscribe]

15 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Makes astrology, reading entrails and tea leaves look good.

'It's got a reverse cup and handle formation with a rising star with a concave pennant, so it's going to go up 37%'

What a load of old shit!

It works for short term moves and trends (day trading) when there’s no wider economic forces pulling the markets in a certain direction.

Example: BTC reaches a certain support threshold (in a QE environment circa 2021 - so overall bullish) so to move into the alts for trading all the DIY algo trading bots work on traditional algorithms (MACD, Fib, ema, boll, volume etc) so things like 15min candles can dictate direction.

Edited April 10 by Lightscribe