Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Jay]

5 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Saw on Bloomberg this morning some coked up funboys saying the UK could cut interest rates before the US.

Now, I understand these boys are either clueless or talking their book, but it got me thinking that it's mean Sterling getting a proper kicking? Parity has been on the cards for a long time and the stupid cunts might just go for it.

Sure the possibility of uk cutting more than us is a strong possibility..cable falling 25% with the amount of us debt and China and Russia not buying treasuries is a very very small possibility..more chance euro goes to parity with the dollar given its structural issues..interesting times..the drama today with a very small increase inflation in us is funny..

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

It works for short term moves and trends (day trading) when there’s no wider economic forces pulling the markets in a certain direction.

Example: BTC reaches a certain support threshold (in a QE environment circa 2021 - so overall bullish) so to move into the alts for trading all the DIY algo trading bots work on traditional algorithms (MACD, Fib, ema, boll, volume etc) so things like 15min candles can dictate direction.

That's all complicated and stuff

 

Timeless advice, 10yo vid

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

It works for short term moves and trends (day trading) when there’s no wider economic forces pulling the markets in a certain direction.

Example: BTC reaches a certain support threshold (in a QE environment circa 2021 - so overall bullish) so to move into the alts for trading all the DIY algo trading bots work on traditional algorithms (MACD, Fib, ema, boll, volume etc) so things like 15min candles can dictate direction.

Those 15 minute candles are at the minimum 20 minutes old before the likes of us get to see them though  

[Long time lurking]

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Lightscribe]

2 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Those 15 minute candles are at the minimum 20 minutes old before the likes of us get to see them though  

That’s where macro comes in with the wider economic outlook. Monetary policy, yields, interest rates, liquidity, yield curve inversions, inflation. 

Cycles and human nature. We are creatures of habit, so remarkably things that have happened in similar circumstances before tend to repeat.

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

No chance I remember folk saying there would be blood on the streets if inflation ran wild 2017 people wouldn't stand for it they sez.

Nothing and I mean nothing happened when it did hit, zero uproar, bit of moaning on bookface.

Shit happens when people get poor, hungry and angry.

Dont rule it out.  

Does anyone remember the movement that occupied the city of london in 2008 ?

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Lloyds has been on a bit of a run lately, I am up 25% as of today.

[Long time lurking]

12 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Cycles and human nature. We are creatures of habit, so remarkably things that have happened in similar circumstances before tend to repeat.

I agree to a point but whats happening now and why it`s happening has not happened in at least a century if not five 

It`s financial war and the western dominant financial system has no control over their adversaries like they have had for over half a millennia 

[Funn3r]

32 minutes ago, Loki said:

 

Timeless advice, 10yo vid

Never gets old though, love it

[M S E Refugee]

 

 

[Lightscribe]

23 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I agree to a point but whats happening now and why it`s happening has not happened in at least a century if not five 

It`s financial war and the western dominant financial system has no control over their adversaries like they have had for over half a millennia 

40 year disinflationary cycle into an inflationary one was always going to be a game changer. But empires have always risen and fallen, hyperinflation, precious metal devaluation etc.

1970s and coming away from the gold standard was the last significant monetary change, trillions of QE after 2008 sealed the direction.

Look at someone in growing up since 1914. WW1, Spanish flu, silver content halved in currency in 1920, Great Depression, then WW2 etc.

The baby boomers afterwards have just had a pretty good run.

Edited April 10 by Lightscribe

[DurhamBorn]

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Edited April 10 by DurhamBorn

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

Don't be daft.  They'll seize all your investments before they stop paying the indolent.

They'll be going to war....

[onlyme]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

They'll be going to war....

When all else fails, as Celente puts it.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Prices going up = moaning

Prices going up and can't afford food, fuel = definite chance of people taking action

So there must be a magic level above which it will be dodgy times

Yo0u do have to wonder why British people haven't alread gone mad

 

[Axeman123]

Key thing AIUI about today's US yields is the dollar, foreigners buy USTs to hedge the dollar. They buy when the dollar falls and sell (or not buy) when the dollar is strong. Todays CPI has spiked the DXY, hence the bad auction today.

Meanwhile Biden of all people is promising rate cuts this year, which would weaken the dollar and hence increase demand for USTs just as the US is going to be issuing loads of them. In a few weeks that may be looked on as marking the short-term top for DXY.

[Harley]

Re. our sell yesterday of SPAG (Agribusiness), WTF:

[invalid]

11 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Is there a thread already about Labour's announcement about cracking down on (legal) tax avoidance? 

Wtf.  

 

 

 

 

I hope that it was a slip of the tongue to say avoidance rather than evasion but what is scary is I'm not sure if it was.

And what she is saying is that they want more money to waste on non wealth generating things such as NHS (you could give the NHS 100% of GDP and it still wouldn't be enough), dentist appointments and free breakfast clubs (WTF!!).

Could we please have some real leaders.

How about a crack down on bennies to fund industry, R&D into technology, training UK citizens with proper skills, support the NHS by training our own rather than poaching from the rest of the world, make tax simple, cut red tape for business etc.

 

 

 

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Oooh totally "Leaked vids" something must be up

 

Powell has promoted ESG issues like climate change 

 

Edited April 10 by Loki

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

40 year disinflationary cycle into an inflationary one was always going to be a game changer. But empires have always risen and fallen, hyperinflation, precious metal devaluation etc.

1970s and coming away from the gold standard was the last significant monetary change, trillions of QE after 2008 sealed the direction.

Look at someone in growing up since 1914. WW1, Spanish flu, silver content halved in currency in 1920, Great Depression, then WW2 etc.

The baby boomers afterwards have just had a pretty good run.

That all happened under the western financial systems control ,they are losing that control now in the face of a competing system emerging , we are not comparing apples with apples anymore 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

And whatever they come up with, gold sniffed it out 2 months ago, meaning most people will have missed it. 

The front runners began sniffing it out last year

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Oooh totally "Leaked vids" something must be up

 

Powell has promoted ESG issues like climate change 

 

I`m on the fence when it comes to OMG ,but it`s all driven by political motivations for sure