Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Calcutta]

Even @Cattle Prodis kicking right off, it's game on boys. 

 

[Chewing Grass]

11 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

That all happened under the western financial systems control ,they are losing that control now in the face of a competing system emerging , we are not comparing apples with apples anymore 

Just reminded myself of this, I imagine the Pols think the current inflation cycle will be a little blip like 1991, it could be a double blip like 1976 but I would err for 1972.

1972 marked the start of the destruction of UK manufacturing and 1976 the point when the Mk1 Golf became cool and BL was shit.

This time the UK has nothing to asset strip, flog or scrap, just a nation full of self-absorbed, virtue seeking fuckwitts and bone idle screen fondlers (the digital version of window-licker's).

Aha, new buzz-phrase 'digital window licker's'.

Interesting, this theme has been explored in 1999.

https://oldtimemusic.com/the-meaning-behind-the-song-windowlicker-by-aphex-twin/

The title itself is a play on words, combining the terms “window” and “licker” to evoke images of someone obsessively staring at a computer screen, indulging in the voyeuristic pleasures provided by the digital world. Aphex Twin, also known as Richard D. James, touches upon the notion of addiction to technology and the isolation it can create, highlighting the dual nature of our relationship with the digital realm.

https://youtu.be/2fmo1Sjn7dg

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

The title itself is a play on words, combining the terms “window” and “licker” to evoke images of someone obsessively staring at a computer screen, indulging in the voyeuristic pleasures provided by the digital world. Aphex Twin, also known as Richard D. James, touches upon the notion of addiction to technology and the isolation it can create, highlighting the dual nature of our relationship with the digital realm.

It's The Current Year.  He can hardly say "Yeah I thought the word for spackers was funny"

[Lightscribe]

 

I just say what I see.

[Lightscribe]

43 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

That all happened under the western financial systems control ,they are losing that control now in the face of a competing system emerging , we are not comparing apples with apples anymore 

They may have already thought about that…

 

[Loki]

Just now, Lightscribe said:

They may have already thought about that…

 

Needs more lines

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Needs more lines

Lithium will solve it.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Lithium will solve it.

True

https://www.nhs.uk/medicines/lithium/

[Lightscribe]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Needs more lines

Loki I’m disappointed you didn’t invest in Harmony but I’m also proud of your trade analysis 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Loki I’m disappointed you didn’t invest in Harmony but I’m also proud of your trade analysis 

HNNNNNNNNNNNNGHHHHH Look at the lines on that

[wherebee]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

Well, taken a jump to sell some of the GDXJ to lock in a nice USD profit.

Yes, I agree gold is going much higher in time, but I have made good capital gains trading in and out of GDXJ and I think there will be one more smash down on paper gold price.

The 3kUSD profit I from this tranche can go into either cheaper miners in that dip, or IMP for divvies.

trade didn't go through - it dipped before it hit my price.

never mind - long term it's only going one way; shame not to have a little icing on the cake tho

[Loki]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

trade didn't go through - it dipped before it hit my price

[Long time lurking]

Air space has been closed over most of Iran

[Long time lurking]

 

[onlyme]

8 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just reminded myself of this, I imagine the Pols think the current inflation cycle will be a little blip like 1991, it could be a double blip like 1976 but I would err for 1972.

1972 marked the start of the destruction of UK manufacturing and 1976 the point when the Mk1 Golf became cool and BL was shit.

This time the UK has nothing to asset strip, flog or scrap, just a nation full of self-absorbed, virtue seeking fuckwitts and bone idle screen fondlers (the digital version of window-licker's).

Aha, new buzz-phrase 'digital window licker's'.

Interesting, this theme has been explored in 1999.

https://oldtimemusic.com/the-meaning-behind-the-song-windowlicker-by-aphex-twin/

The title itself is a play on words, combining the terms “window” and “licker” to evoke images of someone obsessively staring at a computer screen, indulging in the voyeuristic pleasures provided by the digital world. Aphex Twin, also known as Richard D. James, touches upon the notion of addiction to technology and the isolation it can create, highlighting the dual nature of our relationship with the digital realm.

https://youtu.be/2fmo1Sjn7dg

 

 

The commodities market might be lining up for a repeat of the 70's double pulse, just the very beginning of the break of the down trend?

[crashmonitor]

UK 2 year swap blew out to 4.8% at close or a rise of 3% on the day from 4.65%. We are now knocking on the door of 2024 highs of 29th February whence we were at about 4.9%. It will be interesting to see where it goes today.

I'm not sure we can go it alone on cuts in June if the FED holds going forward, we would get absolutely spanked on FOREX and as an importer we would be struggling to hold 2% target after the forthcoming dip in  inflation.

Edited April 11 by crashmonitor

[ashestoashes]

good value for those taking profits

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/paint-your-own-unicorn-money-box-at-hobbycraft-free-cc-4325683

[Pip321]

22 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

UK 2 year swap blew out to 4.8% at close or a rise of 3% on the day from 4.65%. We are now knocking on the door of 2024 highs of 27th February whence we were at about 4.83%. It will be interesting to see where it goes today.

I'm not sure we can go it alone on cuts in June if the FED holds going forward, we would get absolutely spanked on FOREX and as an importer we would be struggling to hold 2% target after the forthcoming dip in  inflation.

So UK 2 year swap suggests rates could be going up. Gold is rallying like it does when rates are going to fall. Oil prices suggest economic demand increasing.
All over the place…let’s see if I have this right  

Basically central bank monetary control is disappearing. Their ability to control things has weakened already and slipping away. The US debt and deficit levels are now high enough that people had stopped listening to what they say….now they are stopping even caring (to much extent) what they do.

Iran chatting to Saudi etc…..starting to feel like we are on course for fairly rocky times. Pre US elections might be a last opportunity of old normality before (regardless of who wins) all bets are off.

Starting to become clearer to me what DH (mystic Dave) was saying.

1) Melt up is denial.

2) BK and crash everywhere (including EMs and commods) is bargaining and anger…….

3) Then a huge bull run in commods/precious metals is acceptance?

Does that sound about right….and if so the spanner in the works is IF/WHEN the US throws its toys out of the pram and bombs start flying round under the banner of democracy….basically to weaken other economies, improve US position comparatively and also have someone else to blame to their voters. 

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Looks like interest rates not going anywhere soon:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-interest-rates-house-prices/

 

+
 

US inflation jumps as fuel and housing costs rise

• Published
  6 hours ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68781482

[headrow]

Bailed on Fres this morning , a month ago I was £2.5k down on them , I've got out this morning with £600 profit.

 

I also tagged the 3 top fallers in the ftse100 , Phoenix , Aviva and Lloyds as they all went ex div. The next 2 months are my best months of the year for divis coming through.

[Pip321]

16 minutes ago, headrow said:

Bailed on Fres this morning , a month ago I was £2.5k down on them , I've got out this morning with £600 profit.

I also tagged the 3 top fallers in the ftse100 , Phoenix , Aviva and Lloyds as they all went ex div. The next 2 months are my best months of the year for divis coming through.

I might do the same once I break even (wrong rational for selling I know)…..but if I sell I would put the money into more PMs spray and pay areas. 

I just need to wait for £7…..remember when £7 felt cheap for Fres 😂😂

[crashmonitor]

42 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Looks like interest rates not going anywhere soon:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-interest-rates-house-prices/

 

+
 

US inflation jumps as fuel and housing costs rise

• Published
  6 hours ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68781482

https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/gbp-2-years-irs-interest-rate-swap-historical-data

 

Up to 4.875% on the 2 year UK swap. Market  appears to be rethinking that June cut.

[DurhamBorn]

I was worried the Graf reporter who follows us had died,but fear not,they are back reading us again.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/11/public-sector-destroy-whats-left-uk-economy/

Of course the size of the state and bennies is what is destroying us,but its mainly because it is all inflation linked.There is no incentive to lower bennies for instance if you are in charge of policy in the public sector on £100k with an inflation linked pension.You like fat Shaz getting inflation uplifts on her £25k a year,because it ensures you get inflation increases on your £75k a year pension.

As we know on here,the days of simply stealing off everyone else through taxation are long gone because it is not enough,now they need to take saved labour as well through monetising and the de value of most assets.Im tracking this as close as i can,and its more experience than hard numbers,but i suspect in the last 4 to 5 years the state has taken around 30% of lifetime savings to keep itself in clover.We are moving past the point where there is no coming back from.

I take a look at the pensions of the best paid private sector employer in a local town compared to bennies and retired coppers.Since 2020 its close to 50% difference.These are banana republic numbers.

Iv managed 98% now on family wealth (outside of housing),but its been a lot of work.They really are evil.

[onlyme]

Prat by name, stinking hypocrite by nature, this junk rag has spent years going all out to destroy the fossil energy sector and then gets all upset when there is blowback.

 

Is Shell trying to kill the London stock market?

Nils Pratley

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/apr/11/is-shell-trying-to-kill-the-london-stock-market

[Jay]

15 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/gbp-2-years-irs-interest-rate-swap-historical-data

 

Up to 4.875% on the 2 year UK swap. Market  appears to be rethinking that June cut.

Ecb meets today.. I think that they will go first so should an interesting session..the fed has positive real rates so a quarter point cut will be possible with minimal economic consequences…oil is the problem if it goes higher and holds..

us is in better position than uk and Europe..Goldilocks still has not left the house yet..