Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Harley]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

UK retail sales growth picks up as price pressures ease

Data from British Retail Consortium points to signs of recovery for sector ahead of warmer months

Have they deflated the gross to properly account for inflation?  Rhetorical, just another one of 'em numbers!

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Was talking to a mate yesterday who installs central heating, he said no one is getting back to him on quotes, hes started looking for work with the bigger companies. Pretty shitty out there apparently.

Meanwhile I've had yet another no show roofer.  Guess it'll be me then!

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Meanwhile I've had yet another no show roofer.  Guess it'll be me then!

Odd aint it?

Gas fitting is one of the cream jobs in the trades during good times, my mate said to me yesterday "It might be time to drop the spanner and pick up the hammer".

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Every day since last Thurs I've expected a commodities pullback.

It's like an icebreaker right now.

yeah, I'm getting a bit nervous.  I don't want a BK just yet.

[Noallegiance]

10 minutes ago, wherebee said:

yeah, I'm getting a bit nervous.  I don't want a BK just yet.

Funny you should say that.

Given that market sentiment is massive I'm trying to monitor my own emotion through this.

I'm aware of excitement following years of patience and what I see as inevitable.

I'm nervous for the approaching realisation of a life goal.

I'm conscious of seeking validation for my position. I'm currently being proven correct in my beliefs. Will it last?

I'm the most risk-averse person I know. Having written out the above I think it reads as something that a Peter Schiff or David Hunter would call a wall of worry that is precisely what continues to fuels these rallies.

But still, I sweat.

[SpectrumFX]

5 minutes ago, wherebee said:

yeah, I'm getting a bit nervous.  I don't want a BK just yet.

For my PM holdings, sell in May and go away was my plan before this all kicked off.

That was based on me musing over the seasonallity in the silver market pointed out in this tweet from Nov 23. 

 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, SpectrumFX said:

For my PM holdings, sell in May and go away was my plan before this all kicked off.

That was based on me musing over the seasonallity in the silver market pointed out in this tweet from Nov 23. 

 

I checked out some miner rallies on charts last night. There's been a number of times that silver miners have shot up from Oct to Dec.

[SpectrumFX]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I checked out some miner rallies on charts last night. There's been a number of times that silver miners have shot up from Oct to Dec.

I've been buying and holding for years through all the ups and downs. I really need to get into looking at things like seasonality and start dipping in and out.

It would be just my luck though to sell out in the foothills of a monumental price spike, after holding for years.

[Long time lurking]

What happened to the 6 rate cuts in 2024 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

What happened to the 6 rate cuts in 2024 

 

I have an angry frog on line 1 for you

[Axeman123]

19 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

seasonallity in the silver market

The thing is, that is the average of a great many years and most of those years by definition Silver wasn't in a bull market. IMO it is far from gauranteed that seasonality will trump a bull market.

[Jay]

14 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Jamie Dimon's letter to shareholders has had a few mentions in the financial press today, this is the full text:

https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2023/ar-ceo-letters.htm

 

Thanks for posting..he writes well..

Mentions American role being challenged by other countries..

us economy resilience funded by government deficit ..further spending needed so stickier rates and inflation…

Qe happening so he is cautious..

talks about heart..sugar coated anecdote 

beieves in strong us domestically and internationally no alternative to the us..

My take is that be afraid..

 

 

 

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The thing is, that is the average of a great many years and most of those years by definition Silver wasn't in a bull market. IMO it is far from gauranteed that seasonality will trump a bull market.

That's my concern.

I wanted to start getting clever this year buying in and out with the seasonality, but from where we are that might put me into picking up pennies in front of steamroller territory.

[Harley]

26 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

I am more and more coming around to momentum / trend buying with the macro ideas on here obviously dictating what sectors. 

[Lightscribe]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/09/corporate-bullying-abrdn-cio-slams-jabs-at-companys-rebranded-name.html

Really?? 

Obviously a name change to Silver <insert animal name> Asset Management is on the cards to hike up the share price 

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/09/corporate-bullying-abrdn-cio-slams-jabs-at-companys-rebranded-name.html

Really?? 

Obviously a name change to Silver <insert animal name> Asset Management is on the cards to hike up the share price 

Today’s City AM sums it up nicely

Edited April 9 by Castlevania

[onlyme]

14 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The thing is, that is the average of a great many years and most of those years by definition Silver wasn't in a bull market. IMO it is far from gauranteed that seasonality will trump a bull market.

Heard some quote recently that demand for silver for the expected solar demand would outstrip all supplies within a decade. Even when dealing with tiny amoutts for ptrotecting wire traces panels are large and recovery often is just not being done - the frames and cable are recovered and the rest of the panel crushed and dumped - once you have gone to all the effort bonding and protecting from the elements for a couple of decades it makes the raw materials somewht difficiult to recover.

RR. quite a large drop across the sector including Airbus - so doesn't seem defence related, yet demand for passenger miels is likely to exceed capacity this year and Airbus/Boeing can;t make the new aircraft quick enough. Whatever it has triggered a sizable selloff, for now.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

Bear Creek says its wholly owned Corani deposit is one of the world’s largest fully permitted silver-polymetallic deposits. It consists of 13 mineral concessions that form a contiguous block of ground covering about 5,500 hectares. 

The asset’s proven and probable reserves can support average annual payable metal production of 9.6 million ounces of silver, 98 million pounds of lead and 69 million pounds of zinc over a 15-year mine life. 
 

Certainly has potential (10x bagger) given past performance 

 

Remember though they keep getting diluted because they need to keep money coming in so keep issuing shares to streamers etc.Sandstorm are one involved,but they are low in silver streams so should support the new mine IF it goes ahead to increase their silver exposure.I repeat though,the most likely outcome on these types is they go to zero,through never building the mine,or being diluted and diluted until the ones getting the diluted shares and up with the prospect and other shareholders end up with pennies on the pound if lucky.I bought across many silver miners last month and these were only a very small amount of it.I sold a few Tower Hill yesterday and the profit on that small sale got me Bear Creek for free.

 

[Calcutta]

Just now, onlyme said:

Heard some quote recently that demand for silver for the expected solar demand would outstrip all supplies within a decade. Even when dealing with tiny amoutts for ptrotecting wire traces panels are large and recovery often is just not being done - the frames and cable are recovered and the rest of the panel crushed and dumped - once you have gone to all the effort bonding and protecting from the elements for a couple of decades it makes the raw materials somewht difficiult to recover.

RR. quite a large drop across the sector including Airbus - so doesn't seem defence related, yet demand for passenger miels is likely to exceed capacity this year and Airbus/Boeing can;t make the new aircraft quick enough. Whatever it has triggered a sizable selloff, for now.

 

Somebody somewhere has woken up and realised no cunt is going to be flying anywhere for some mysterious reason.

Watch the skies traveler.

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Funny you should say that.

Given that market sentiment is massive I'm trying to monitor my own emotion through this.

I'm aware of excitement following years of patience and what I see as inevitable.

I'm nervous for the approaching realisation of a life goal.

I'm conscious of seeking validation for my position. I'm currently being proven correct in my beliefs. Will it last?

I'm the most risk-averse person I know. Having written out the above I think it reads as something that a Peter Schiff or David Hunter would call a wall of worry that is precisely what continues to fuels these rallies.

But still, I sweat.

Patience?  For me, set a wide enough net and just keep trading!  Stuff comes round when it comes round.  No point waiting for just the one!

For me, now is the time to test our algos and our ability to stick to them.  So far they've been really helpful in taking the emotion out of things as we eye up a quad bike, etc!  We review our positions each day looking to ladder up, sell, or hold.  A pullback that doesn't do any serious damage would be great atm as we should have had higher stakes but we were still feeling our way.

But that's just our trading account.  We've been busy researching our more serious core portfolios.  Been quite attracted to momentum ETFs such as XDEM (for a slice of DMs) but needs more research (e.g. not sure about "The index consists of titles that have experienced price increases over the past 6 and past 12 months" as this seems too long).

[onlyme]

27 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Somebody somewhere has woken up and realised no cunt is going to be flying anywhere for some mysterious reason.

Watch the skies traveler.

Keeping an eye for anything like that as it obviously kills RR, across defence secotr - BAE almost identical drop profile, so whatever caused the cross sector action is a bit odd, other than both having a decent run up.

 

Edited April 9 by onlyme

[jamtomorrow]

34 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

My spider senses have gone all tingly….

Something is afoot….

Anyone any ideas? Or just simple profit taking? 

Was a very decent run up:

RR - 50p to 430p (8 x bagger ) went from a £4.5bn company to a £35bn company in less tha 3 years - wtf? What a ride ! 
 

BAE - from 400p to 1300p (3x bagger) 

£13bn to £38bn in the same time. 
 

there’s money in war ! 
 

* edited to add - I had bought both but certainly didnt bag 8x or 3x.

Had cost averaged in to RR (so built up an uncomfortably big holding), at about 100p so 4x bagged after selling last week. 

With BAE I bought once at the very very bottom but sold far too early -  around 100% gain. 

 

Iran NOTAM?

 

[CannonFodder]

16 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

My spider senses have gone all tingly….

Something is afoot….

Anyone any ideas? Or just simple profit taking? 

Was a very decent run up:

RR - 50p to 430p (8 x bagger ) went from a £4.5bn company to a £35bn company in less tha 3 years - wtf? What a ride ! 
 

BAE - from 400p to 1300p (3x bagger) 

£13bn to £38bn in the same time. 
 

there’s money in war ! 
 

* edited to add - I had bought both but certainly didnt bag 8x or 3x.

Had cost averaged in to RR (so built up an uncomfortably big holding), at about 100p so 4x bagged after selling last week. 

With BAE I bought once at the very very bottom but sold far too early -  around 100% gain. 

 

I don't want to clutter this thread too much with war stuff but it is appearing more and more that the West is realising it won't win an armed conflict so is not even going to try. It's shit or get off the pot time, and the arms companies shares are worried about off the pot. West now needs to triple arms budgets or not even try and that's too political.

Yemen has been a disaster for Western military and China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are much tougher nuts to crack than Yemen. Yanks are now offering Houthis deals to stop attacking shipping including US warships. You shoot at a US warship and the US starts offering you concessions, you see where this is going.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240404-us-may-remove-houthis-from-terror-list-if-red-sea-attacks-cease/amp/

As for Russia, latest global firepower numbers are out, and the level of armament nearly made me fall off my seat.

Let's take navy for example, left column is prior to war in Ukraine and right is latest update (now). A 176 increase in the number of naval assets is reported. I was expecting 60 new ships. Like wtf. That's the artic sown up. This is a pro-western site by the way.

China's numbers are reported as technically down, they are moving a lot of warships from their navy to their coastguard. 10,000 ton destroyers now classed as civilian cutters lol. Totally not hiding their strength.

Even North Korea is looking tasty now, US now in fourth place with ship numbers reducing due to delays in new ships not being ready as end of life occurs for existing. Military is a failing institution without the money to fix it, so war preparations may be off.

Israel is now pulling it's troops out from Gaza while Hamas is rejecting a ceasefire which won't be reported as such but is a retreat. Another nail in arms shares.

The above is not investment advice, while gov policy is it's too skint for an arms race, humanity has always chosen war in the long term.

 

[Alex]

2 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I don't want to clutter this thread too much with war stuff but it is appearing more and more that the West is realising it won't win an armed conflict so is not even going to try. It's shit or get off the pot time, and the arms companies shares are worried about off the pot. West now needs to triple arms budgets or not even try and that's too political.

Yemen has been a disaster for Western military and China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are much tougher nuts to crack than Yemen. Yanks are now offering Houthis deals to stop attacking shipping including US warships. You shoot at a US warship and the US starts offering you concessions, you see where this is going.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240404-us-may-remove-houthis-from-terror-list-if-red-sea-attacks-cease/amp/

As for Russia, latest global firepower numbers are out, and the level of armament nearly made me fall off my seat.

Let's take navy for example, left column is prior to war in Ukraine and right is latest update (now). A 176 increase in the number of naval assets is reported. I was expecting 60 new ships. Like wtf. That's the artic sown up. This is a pro-western site by the way.

China's numbers are reported as technically down, they are moving a lot of warships from their navy to their coastguard. 10,000 ton destroyers now classed as civilian cutters lol. Totally not hiding their strength.

Even North Korea is looking tasty now, US now in fourth place with ship numbers reducing due to delays in new ships not being ready as end of life occurs for existing. Military is a failing institution without the money to fix it, so war preparations may be off.

Israel is now pulling it's troops out from Gaza while Hamas is rejecting a ceasefire which won't be reported as such but is a retreat. Another nail in arms shares.

The above is not investment advice, while gov policy is it's too skint for an arms race, humanity has always chosen war in the long term.

 

Colombia?! What the fuck?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Alex said:

Colombia?! What the fuck?

Narco private militias?