Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Sibanye has a bit of an ace up its sleeve with the gold oz it mines also as well as the uranium in the tailings that DB has referred to once they decide what they’re doing with it. 

Platinum could follow in the wake of the other PMs, but it is a smaller market so is more susceptible to Mr.Slammy.

Also Sibanye have already hedged 60% of their gold output below current spot apparently, not sure how accurate this is (comment posted below)

So it may take until later in the year or 2025 to see the shackles come off.

They did hedge,but to cover the downside while still capturing most of the upside.They are making sure the gold brings in enough cash flow to keep the PGMs going until they run.They do it every cycle as do Harmony.If PGMs join in Sib will 5x

[sancho panza]

On 06/04/2024 at 05:18, Lightscribe said:

Ah yes and here we are. You’ll own nothing and be happy, unless… 

I wonder the demographic suggestions like this will be aimed at… hmmm

Go fuck yourselves. 

Here's a list including pictures of thsoe who gave their lives in Afghan on the UK side.I went through and counted some 30 or so ethnic minorities/females.At least 80% of thsoe are either Ghurkas or Fijian/Islanders/Commonwealth.I know there was a few Ghanaians and Fijians floating around the units I served with,as well as Saffers.Even a random Canadian in one of the Guards Regts.The other 430 or so appear to be white males.

So that's 30 out of 457. 80% of 30 is 24.Please go through them.For anyone clamouring for us to spill our blood in the Ukraine,then show them these faces that will never come home and lighten up Christmas time again.The Batley crew are noticeable in their abscence.

The reality is that whilst our political overlords worry about ethnic representation on the boards of FTSE constituents/BBC/Councils,they don't worry about it in the body bags coming back from the conflicts they engage in.

Then they're quite happy to offload that to the white males they campaign against and the Commonwealth who bleed out in their place.

Sorry if this offends but it needs pointing out.

https://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/projects/afghanistan-war-memorial-uk/#

On 06/04/2024 at 09:48, DurhamBorn said:

Translate to i have a huge inflation linked public sector pension,i would like private sector workers children to go and die so i can keep it.He does not seem to understand those private sector workers are already in a war,with the likes of him,the state etc.Its more likely the ordinary worker would welcome in the Russians because they would at least turn back those 3rd world invaders.I dont think the state understands the mood at all of all those not on the state tit.

I really don't think they do.

Edited April 8 by sancho panza

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

All the painful lessons learned by workplace maimings and fatalities would have to be repeated though, as some of those creative solutions would be a deathtrap. Any serious undertaking has an accumulated body of institutional knowledge that can only be gained from accident investigations.

 

 

You mean like these experienced drill head guys. I guess they are at least all wearing hard hats, but how they go home each day with all their fingers intact surprises me!

 

 

[sancho panza]

US trying to refill the strategic reserve at higher prices.....leading to inflationary pressures........noone saw this coming did they @Cattle Prod and various other basement dwellers

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-100-oil-rising-supply-140005568.html

The Odds of $100 Oil Are Rising as Supply Shocks Convulse the Market

(Bloomberg) -- When oil jumped above $90 a barrel just days ago, military tensions between Israel and Iran were the immediate trigger. But the rally’s foundations went deeper — to global supply shocks that are intensifying fears of a commodity-driven inflation resurgence.

A recent move by Mexico to slash its crude exports is compounding a global squeeze, prompting refiners in the US — the world’s biggest oil producer — to consume more domestic barrels. American sanctions have stranded Russian cargoes at sea, with Venezuelan supply a potential next target. Houthi rebel attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have delayed crude shipments. And despite the turmoil, OPEC and its allies are sticking with their production cuts.

It all adds up to a magnitude of supply disruption that has taken traders by surprise. The crunch is turbocharging an oil rally ahead of the US summer driving season, threatening to push Brent crude, the global benchmark, to $100 for the first time in almost two years. That’s amplifying the inflation concerns that are clouding US President Joe Biden’s reelection chances and complicating central banks’ rate-cut deliberations.

For oil, “the bigger driver right now is on the supply side,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You have seen quite a few pockets of supply weakness, and demand overall on a global basis is healthy.”

Oil shipments from Mexico, a major supplier in the Americas, slid 35% last month to their lowest since 2019 as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador tries to make good on promises to wean the country off costly fuel imports. The country’s exports of so-called sour crude — the heavy, dense kind that many refineries are designed to process — now stand to shrink even further as state-controlled oil company Pemex has canceled some supply contracts to foreign refiners, Bloomberg News reported last week.

That decision has roiled oil markets around the world. Mars Blend, a medium-density sour crude from the US Gulf Coast, has in recent days risen to a multi-year premium over lighter West Texas Intermediate, the national benchmark. Mars usually trades at a discount to WTI. Brent crude hit $90 a barrel on Thursday, the highest since October, and extended gains on Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has said it could hit $100 by August or September.

Canadian Cold Lake oil priced at the Gulf Coast traded at the narrowest discount to WTI in almost a year. Key indicators for Middle Eastern medium-sour crude, such as Oman and Dubai contracts, are rallying too.

Adding to the tightness, OPEC member the United Arab Emirates curbed shipments of Upper Zakum, a medium-sour oil, by 41% in March compared with last year’s average, according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler. The state oil company is diverting more supplies of that crude to its own refinery, traders said. Though the cuts were expected and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is offering buyers another type of crude as a substitute, the decline in Upper Zakum exports is contributing to higher regional prices amid the broader OPEC+ curtailment.

Crude markets in Europe, meanwhile, were pressured higher by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which sent millions of barrels of crude on a detour around Africa, delaying some supplies for weeks. Disruptions to a key North Sea pipeline, unrest in Libya and a damaged pipe in South Sudan also contributed to the rally, while US sanctions have deprived Russia of tankers that previously transported its oil to buyers including India.

The supply pinch could become even more acute in the weeks ahead. With President Nicolas Maduro showing no sign of heeding promises to move toward free and fair elections, the Biden administration could reimpose sanctions this month.

Crude’s rally has snarled the Biden administration’s plans to refill emergency US oil reserves, which reached a 40-year low following an unprecedented drawdown after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s also a political risk for Biden as prices for food and energy remain stubbornly high. Oil’s advance threatens to push retail gasoline, now near a daily national average of $3.60 a gallon, toward $4, a key psychological level. That’s contributing to concern that commodities will reverse the recent slowdown in consumer price gains.

Oil prices are now boosting US inflation after subtracting from it at the end of last year. That may be evident again in the March consumer price index due Wednesday, as the overall CPI is seen accelerating on an annual basis, while the core measure that excludes food and energy is expected to tick down. A Bloomberg index of key commodities has reached the highest level since November.

 

[sancho panza]

[DurhamBorn]

The silver minnow i have been buying is Bear Creek Mining, i was going to add a few more today but i cannot get the buy orders in nobody will fill them even down to a couple of k so il make do with what i have.Its up a lot from my first buy anyway.

[Cattle Prod]

19 minutes ago, JMD said:

You mean like these experienced drill head guys. I guess they are at least all wearing hard hats, but how they go home each day with all their fingers intact surprises me!

Short answer is they don't. I've seen some horrendous videos of accidents (you have to watch them before going offshore). That said, that looks like an old rig, probably onshore US, terrible safety culture with multiple red flags. I'd fire the supervisor and send them lads for training. The UK safety culture, along with Norway is probably the best in the world, because of Piper Alpha. Of course that skilset will be lost too, sadly. Those guys have a lot to teach other industries. I met a Piper Alpha survivor once, I'll never forget the things he said.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Ta.  His (large!) book "Master...." was delivered last week.  I just need to finish Sue Townsend first!

PS:  I was with him a while back.  An excellent time.  I'm also enjoying reading Unherd but not sure about the subs.

Tbh a few years back McGilchrist came across as a bit grumpy in many of his interviews and so I put his purchased book to the back of my book shelf and inadvertently forgot about it. However I see he has been appearing and discussing his work with John Cleese (who also worries about the social collapse risk) but maybe that collaboration has helped give McGilchrist a new lighter media persona?  ...I know I'm waffling, but gives me a cheeky excuse to ask - were you attending a function where Cleese was also present?

Edited April 8 by JMD

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The silver minnow i have been buying is Bear Creek Mining, i was going to add a few more today but i cannot get the buy orders in nobody will fill them even down to a couple of k so il make do with what i have.Its up a lot from my first buy anyway.

The mighty panther would be proud. 🥲 

[Majorpain]

14 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

The mighty panther would be proud. 🥲 

You've jinxed it now!  Not one to buy and hold.....  

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, RupertT said:

If I remember correctly that is technically illegal for UK public companies under the financial assistance provisions of the Companies Act (used to be s151, but I lost track of the section numbers after the 2006 Act came out )

Agree, technically...but I used simple language. Once a tax account and the legal team get onboard then it will happen. Not exactly in the way I describe but rather through other holding companies. 

That's why Donald Trump can pay $700 a year tax....because he has very little passing through his personal hands and accounts.

Everything he uses ie buildings, jets, debts, clothes, shoes, homes, meals out, meals in, heating, car, PAs, chauffeurs, computer, phone, hair salon, gym, lady friends.....none are his, they are owned by a company which he controls. 

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, JMD said:

Tbh a few years back McGilchrist came across as a bit grumpy in many of his interviews and so I put his purchased book to the back of my book shelf and inadvertently forgot about it. However I see he has been appearing and discussing his work with John Cleese (who also worries about the social collapse risk) but maybe that collaboration has helped give McGilchrist a new lighter media persona?  ...I know I'm waffling, but gives me a cheeky excuse to ask - were you attending a function where Cleese was also present?

Edited April 8 by Harley

[Harley]

FFS, can't we have a pullback!

[baffledbyzirp]

3 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Most of this is not specific to USD though.  Same for EUR, GBP, etc. They are all at it.

All paper currency eventually falls to its actual vale (zero).

I agree with your Voltaire quote which does not contradict my previous post. However, I feel the rest of your reply is mealy mouthed. You asked for my reasoning and I gave you 19 points, 14 of which are specific to the US, which is exceptional in terms of scale and universal acceptance. Indeed, it is the $USD reserve currency status that has enabled it to amass such a huge mountain of debt. That combined with the use of QE make a revaluation, by orderly or disorderly means, inevitable.

To some extent the US has been hoisted by its own petard due to restrictions associated with reserve status. The Triffin Dilemma specifically recognises that a reserve currency will automatically produce balance of payments deficits since foreign powers seek to hold reserve currency surpluses. America has exploited its position. De Gaulle called it an 'exorbitant privilege' and took back French gold on a battle ship to emphasize his point.

Every $100 held by foreign countries in their national reserves represents $100 of goods or services that the US has not paid for. The profit on the transaction is over 99% and called seigniorage. In a world of digital legers the profit is absolute. However, when foreign powers seek to exchange their $USD for goods or services the bill becomes due. Why do you think the Chinese have been running down their reserves and purchasing US businesses hence the whole Huawei debacle? Uncle Sam does not want all those dollars safely hoarded in the central bank coffers of foreign governments to return to the US because hyperinflation would ensue. 

You could have just said fair point.

 

[DurhamBorn]

If this commod run follows through its a disaster for the west.Its pretty much the world saying we dont want your Fiat anymore.2nd run of inflation before they even manage to cut rates.Western government handouts from monetised debts are being called out for what they are,theft from workers,both our workers and EM workers.The elites wanted to keep their grouse moors by giving the workers savings to the bennies and government retired.What will they do now?.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

If this commod run follows through its a disaster for the west.Its pretty much the world saying we dont want your Fiat anymore.2nd run of inflation before they even manage to cut rates.Western government handouts from monetised debts are being called out for what they are,theft from workers,both our workers and EM workers.The elites wanted to keep their grouse moors by giving the workers savings to the bennies and government retired.What will they do now?.

maybe we could have elite shooting - commoners shooting the lord of the manor as he flaps around in a field.

[Mandalorian]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Again the western brains can’t comprehend this. 

Gold has diverged from treasuries. No one wants US/EU treasuries. Inflation hasn’t been dealt with and China and India are calling the US’s bluff.

As the world turns insular and international assets have proven to be able to be seized and previous contract laws broken, why would they?

Gold is a multi-polar globally agreed medium of value without politics involved. They are not protecting themselves with gold going up, they’re protecting themselves against devaluation of currencies.

https://nitter.poast.org/angeloinchina/status/1776981521423106386#m

Where is CGNAO when you need him?

"Protect yourself.  100% guaranteed."

[Cattle Prod]

"I don't know why they haven't already"

Quote

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/08/shell-threatens-to-quit-london-for-new-york/

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

You've jinxed it now!  Not one to buy and hold.....  

Fear not… the roar continues 🐈‍⬛ 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/silver-tiger-metals-inc-npv

 

 

[Harley]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

What will they do now?

 

 

Edited April 8 by Harley

[janch]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

You've jinxed it now!  Not one to buy and hold.....  

My UFO Alien Metals is up 32.4 %  today  I only bought it because of its name and only a few hundred quid.  I know nothing about the company.  Maybe I should take the time to read about them:

https://www.alienmetals.uk/

I see they do iron ore, silver and platinum.

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, janch said:

My UFO Alien Metals is up 32.4 %  today  I only bought it because of its name and only a few hundred quid.  I know nothing about the company.  Maybe I should take the time to read about them:

https://www.alienmetals.uk/

I see they do iron ore, silver and platinum.

I think I've said before - I bought Silver Elephant because people like elephants. When they like silver and elephants at the same time I'll be a genius and write a best-selling pamphlet about commodity stock investing.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

You mean like these experienced drill head guys. I guess they are at least all wearing hard hats, but how they go home each day with all their fingers intact surprises me!

 

 

Just a dangerous game (regardless of the locals!). Me dad skipped a shift and an explosion took out the control room, killing a few.  Shook him up a bit and he was a long service hard one.

Edited April 8 by Harley

[Jay]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

If this commod run follows through its a disaster for the west.Its pretty much the world saying we dont want your Fiat anymore.2nd run of inflation before they even manage to cut rates.Western government handouts from monetised debts are being called out for what they are,theft from workers,both our workers and EM workers.The elites wanted to keep their grouse moors by giving the workers savings to the bennies and government retired.What will they do now?.

Interesting viewpoint…given that Iran has not yet reacted and Israel saying that some troop pullout of gaza..maybe they agree with you about commodities..more diplomacy going on than I expected..just topsliced a bit of oil..just in case..yellen in China..be lucky..

[Ash4781b]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

If this commod run follows through its a disaster for the west.Its pretty much the world saying we dont want your Fiat anymore.2nd run of inflation before they even manage to cut rates.Western government handouts from monetised debts are being called out for what they are,theft from workers,both our workers and EM workers.The elites wanted to keep their grouse moors by giving the workers savings to the bennies and government retired.What will they do now?.

They’ve been talking up rate cuts. Imo No way Bailey at Bank of England can switch and raise rates from here.