Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

I use dripping from our meat for free like my mum did.

Any idea how long you can keep it for?

Use your nose, it will keep for ages in the fridge, if it don't smell right chuck it. You can freeze it of course for an even longer life.

[M S E Refugee]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

I use dripping from our meat for free like my mum did.

Any idea how long you can keep it for?

I cooked a Rib of Beef last Christmas and I'm still using the dripping of it now.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

I looked at MINT - it’s dollar denominated and the charges are much worse than CSH2

MINT Charges:

For comparison CSH2 - after 5 years the illustrative return value (per £5000) would be: £6197 - compared to £5802 in MINT.
So CSH2 is better by £7902 over 5 years on £100k invested.

Ultimately I totally understand that inflation is eroding capital at c. 10% a year. I am happy to take a short term (year) hit of about 4-5% in real terms as it MAY give the option to act quickly and make much more. (A bit like STRing so not in a chain!). Paying rent is worth it for a short term. Did that in 2007-2009 - worked out well. 

Following @DurhamBorn and others on here I feel I have “future offset” inflation capital erosion a little in the last 4 years with OPTIMiSM from March 2020, and I am happy with the gains / protection I have gained so far. 

My gut tells me (contrarian), that having a ‘large’ short-term cash holding (60-70%), alongside a few hedges (Sibanye, oil gold, silver, and a few old favourites), might not be a bad place to be SHORT TERM - making sure one is fleet footed to move much more rapidly - into commodities and metals and Emerging markets - IF they get “smashed” in a crash (if it occurs). (See 1970’s - there was a brief window of MASSIVE opportunity - hop out into cash and back in).

However I just want a short term place to hold cash ONLY in my S&S ISA - so IF an opportunity comes I can move quickly. 

Final question:

Is CSH2 the best option - 4.4% per annum after stripping out all costs/charges ???

(Extremely low volatility and very low risk). 

Only other option I can see for a S&S ISA account is Trading 212 - 5.2% in their money market cash account. (Money market account they use not FCSC protected). I feel uncertain on this one “too good to be true” - a bit like ICESAVE a few years back).

I am not interested in opening up separate CASH ISA’s - that would be too slow to get the money across to S&S ISA and trade quickly. I have learnt one needs to be very “fleet footed” when the market turns. Slowness has cost me alot in the past - trying to get transfers through etc and not being able to trade at a moments notice. 

Your costs seem to be because you're use HL.  MINT for example is 0.35% TER plus whatever HL charges.  All our accounts do not charge a fee per holding, etc (i.e. a flat account fee).  And yes, some are non-GBP (as I stated), which is an opportunity to diversify, especially if an ISA (can't hold Forex) or avoid Forex charges in a SIPP where you are allowed to hold Forex.  However, the rate is variable and I'm not sure about the one advertised in TradingView.  Last year's return was 4.69% (USD3.86 per share).  Also, holds corporate bonds, etc.  So none of these are the same as a cash deposit (although what the broker does with deposits is a question) but are a potentially interesting alternative.

Edited April 7 by Harley

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Talking of oil my olive oil stash at £2.39 a bottle has ran out,its now £5.09 in Lidl ,i bet @Cattle Prod still has big tins of the stuff stored though.

Over on a health thread there's a presentation suggesting all seed oils are bad, including olive oil.  That plant sterols (suggested for lowering cholesterol) actually do more harm than good.  I cut back on my oil use (only ever use olive) to find I was using too much anyways. 

[Axeman123]

55 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Was looking a history of S&P500

It is fascinating how basically sound some normie share investing advice is, eg:

Start early, average in, stay the course, time in the market, keep adding even when you are down.

Someone in their 30s putting a lump sum in at the height of the 2000 bubble and then drip feeding in every month would still have come good ready for retirement. If they had sucessfully waited in cash/bonds and timed the bottom that followed they would have done incredibly well of course. If they had drip fed their lump sum in over several years instead (as well as regular contributions) they would have been up overall much sooner.

I think people wanting exceptional results and willing to both work for it and take risk/volatility on the chin (like us on here) can do so much better, but if I had to give vanilla advice to a normie I would probably stick with the above and feel they would be well served by it.

Even the 60/40 portfolio has recovered its bond bloodbath losses, and has returned 8% annualised over the last 10 years. Not somewhere I would want to be close to retirement etc, but for the normies maybe not so terrible.

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Over on a health thread there's a presentation suggesting all seed oils are bad, including olive oil.  That plant sterols (suggested for lowering cholesterol) actually do more harm than good.  I cut back on my oil use (only ever use olive) to find I was using too much anyways. 

I always have this when I'm in Poland, it's called Smalec which is pork lard, delicious!

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Over on a health thread there's a presentation suggesting all seed oils are bad, including olive oil.  That plant sterols (suggested for lowering cholesterol) actually do more harm than good.  I cut back on my oil use (only ever use olive) to find I was using too much anyways. 

I find you don't need to use much oil if at all depending on what you cook. Plenty of fat in most decent meat to cook itself like a steak, bacon or sausages. If I fry an egg I just use a small amount of butter and don't butter the toast its going on.

I watched a tv program years ago about the US military cooking breakfast for hundreds of troops in a barrack mess, they had just started cooking the eggs in the fat after cooking the bacon, saved them thousands of dollars in cooking oil they no longer needed.

[Harley]

I shouldn't say this but I'm banking on being "the only Dosbodder in my village"!  Those Asda locals don't muck about with the discounts on stuff hitting their sell by date, or the day before.  A straight 50%.  Bought eight packs of chicken breasts this week and there were still plenty (over 10) left.  Another tip: don't take my partner with you, she gets embarrassed with five packs!  Plus I find their food quite good and reasonably priced, especially for a local (the Morrisons one is a total rip off).

Edited April 7 by Harley

[JMD]

Apparently this guy was an economics student of Richard Werner (Princess of the Yen), not sure what he does now but here he attempts to tell why economies can do well (Japan) or are failing (uk). Unfortunately the presentation is amerturish and long-winded, hoping next parts will improve, but still worth watching I think. 

It's only part 1 but his basic thesis seems to be, similar to Richard Werner's, and mostly about controlling how/where banks lend. And that good economics leads to good politics - so he might be a secret reader of this thread!

(btw, on his channel he does a takedown reaction video to that MSM darling and 'economic sensation' Gary Stevenson)

 

 

Edited April 7 by JMD

[Noallegiance]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

Apparently this guy was an economics student of Richard Werner (Princess of the Yen), not sure what he does now but here he attempts to tell why economies can do well (Japan) or are failing (uk). Unfortunately the presentation is amerturish and long-winded, but still worth watching I think.

(btw, on his channel he does a reaction video to the MSM 'economic sensation' Gary Stevenson)

 

 

I can't stand that Gary Stevenson.

[Pip321]

55 minutes ago, Harley said:

I use dripping from our meat for free like my mum did.

Any idea how long you can keep it for?

 

39 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

6-12 months at room temp

12-24 months in the fridge

24 months +++ in freezer

Lard is lovely stuff….

50p - and beats plant oils everyday of the week. 
 

 

As ever Viz says it all. 😉

[Calcutta]

8 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

As ever Viz says it all. 😉

That'll be the thiamine.

[Axeman123]

Some discussion of Lard and shelf life today has me interested. Is beef dripping similar?

[Loki]

I prefer beef dripping as pork can concentrate toxins in the fat, just as humans do.  With cows generally being grass fed and pigs fed who knows what 

[Lightscribe]

54 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

It is fascinating how basically sound some normie share investing advice is, eg:

Start early, average in, stay the course, time in the market, keep adding even when you are down.

Someone in their 30s putting a lump sum in at the height of the 2000 bubble and then drip feeding in every month would still have come good ready for retirement. If they had sucessfully waited in cash/bonds and timed the bottom that followed they would have done incredibly well of course. If they had drip fed their lump sum in over several years instead (as well as regular contributions) they would have been up overall much sooner.

I think people wanting exceptional results and willing to both work for it and take risk/volatility on the chin (like us on here) can do so much better, but if I had to give vanilla advice to a normie I would probably stick with the above and feel they would be well served by it.

Even the 60/40 portfolio has recovered its bond bloodbath losses, and has returned 8% annualised over the last 10 years. Not somewhere I would want to be close to retirement etc, but for the normies maybe not so terrible.

Apart from those on ‘generic’ lifestyle schemes get transferred over to treasuries automatically at designated age milestones. there’s some poor blissfully unaware 55 year olds out there that are 80-90% in treasuries who were automatically transferred in stages whilst rates were 0.5%.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Let's check in on the China "decline".

They've as much as everyone else combined.

Britain not even on the list, what a surprise.

 

[Onsamui]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

 

As ever Viz says it all. 😉

Fish and chips cooked in Lard, brilliant.

[ThoughtCriminal]

This is absolutely fascinating. Much watch if you're interested in China.

He's been going to china for a long time, goes to factories etc and he says the change in the last five years is astounding regarding everything from automation to manners, air quality, public transportation and even public toilets! His conclusion is that China is far ahead of most western countries and, most importantly, he says it's the trajectory: China feels like the future whereas the west feels like the past.

It's only 11 minutes and just him doing a walk and talk to camera in Shanghai. That's his twitter account so well worth a follow I think.

 

 

Edited April 7 by ThoughtCriminal

[Lightscribe]

17 hours ago, Loki said:

That was where the government of the host country was a problem though.  Putin didn't steal my shares

https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/288354065
 

Yup, when I save mine in a mason jar, beef, pork, duck etc. But otherwise I use this, great for roast potatoes.

[AlfredTheLittle]

21 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is absolutely fascinating. Much watch if you're interested in China.

He's been going to china for a long time, goes to factories etc and he says the change in the last five years is astounding regarding everything from automation to manners, air quality, public transportation and even public toilets! His conclusion is that China is far ahead of most western countries and, most importantly, he says it's the trajectory: China geeks like the future whereas the west geeks like the past.

It's only 11 minutes and just him doing a walk and talk to camera in Shanghai. That's his twitter account so well worth a follow I think.

 

 

China deliberately used the covid lockdown to transform the country, which is why they carried it on for an additional year. The rest of the world just panicked about a cold and locked down for no reason, apart from because China had done it.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Over on a health thread there's a presentation suggesting all seed oils are bad, including olive oil.  That plant sterols (suggested for lowering cholesterol) actually do more harm than good.  I cut back on my oil use (only ever use olive) to find I was using too much anyways. 

The political commentator Peter Hitchens would agree with you, and has been proselytising for lard and other natural food products for years. He is suspicious of modern trendy nutritionists etc.  ...He also, partly on health grounds - increased heart attacks, etc -  against changing our clocks every year to what he calls 'Berlin time'! (It is a 'thing' but I shan't explain it)

Anyway Imo all his many insights are probably merely because he makes the effort to ask the right questions to the right people/specialists, but that is something most journalists no longer do. It's why I still bother to read him, because his political insights (the Blair Creature!) and economic doom predictions for this country are among the best. Plus he's kinda universally hated in media circles which probably tells you a lot.

Edited April 7 by JMD

[Calcutta]

54 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Let's check in on the China "decline".

They've as much as everyone else combined.

Britain not even on the list, what a surprise.

 

Britain doesn't need industrial robots, we've got a load of Albanians, they'll get the job done...

[ashestoashes]

1 minute ago, Calcutta said:

Britain doesn't need industrial robots, we've got a load of Albanians, they'll get the job done...

they'll get the rob done

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Let's check in on the China "decline".

They've as much as everyone else combined.

Britain not even on the list, what a surprise.

 

I can say from personal experience that industrial automation is dying in the UK. 

[Pip321]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

The political commentator Peter Hitchens would agree with you, and has been proselytising for lard and other natural food products for years. He is suspicious of modern trendy nutritionists etc.  ...He also, partly on health grounds - increased heart attacks, etc -  against changing our clocks every year to what he calls 'Berlin time'! (It is a 'thing' but I shan't explain it)

Anyway Imo all his many insights are probably merely because he makes the effort to ask the right questions to the right people/specialists, but that is something most journalists no longer do. It's why I still bother to read him, because his political insights (the Blair Creature!) and economic doom predictions for this country are among the best. Plus he's kinda universally hated in media circles which probably tells you a lot.

Yep, fat, meat, milk, oats, berries, fruit and veg. When I eat these things only my weight drops back to the norm…really fast. Even at 55.

I even struggle some days to due to quantity and fullness when eating healthy foods (and I am a greedy bastard.)

Then I fall off the wagon, eat processed shit, pastries, pasta, bread, sweets, biscuits, cakes and onboard calories like I am competing for the world strongest man. Never full either   

Somewhere in the middle is fine….but if I eat only non processed food regardless of trying to work it all (ie calories carbs etc) out each day I seemingly transform. 

Just wish I were better at staying off the processed stuff indefinitely but I guess I am what I am 🤦🏻‍♂️